Football Thoughts

There has been a lot of bitching about Oklahoma getting to go to the Big 12 Championship and possibly the National Championship over Texas since Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. That may be so, but it would behoove us to remember that this was not a straight tie. It was a three-way tie. Texas lost at Texas Tech and Oklahoma beat the snot out of Texas Tech at home. If Oklahoma had lost to Oklahoma St., Texas Tech would have won the Big 12 South based on the head-to-head tiebreaker, despite the fact that just about everyone thinks that Texas is the better team. So all the Texas folks who are complaining about a lesser team than them getting vaulted ahead of them should shut up. If Texas wanted to be in control of the situation, they should have beaten Texas Tech and not whined like a bunch of crybabies.

(Yes I am channeling my inner Wilbon today).

Anyway, we also have things to look forward to in the NFL. There are four weeks left but I think that barring major injury, the NY Giants (11-1) are the team to beat in the NFC and quite possibly the NFL. There is very little chance that they will not get the #1 seed come playoff time. The #2 will go to the winner of the NFC South. At the moment, Tampa Bay has the tiebreaker against Carolina (both 9-3), but the two play each other again this weekend. The loser of this match is likely to fall to the #5 seed but will still make the playoffs.

Arizona (7-5) will probably wrap up the NFC West this weekend. They are in line for the #3 seed but could fall to the #4 if they aren't careful. Currently the #4 would go to the Minnesota Vikings (7-5), who are starting to take command of the NFC North. The Bears and Packers aren't out of it though and if the Vikings lose two major cogs in their front line due to this diet pill scandel, either team could overtake Minnesota for the division lead.

As I mentioned earlier, I think the #5 seed goes to the NFC South second place team (Carolina currently), which leaves the #6 seed. Dallas (8-4) is in this position now, but they have the Atlanta Falcons (8-4) breathing down their necks and the Washington Redskins (7-5) are also only a game out. Dallas' schedule for the next four weeks is @ Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Baltimore, and @ Philadelphia. It is not inconceivable that Dallas loses all four of those games to finish 8-8. Meanwhile the Falcons have @ New Orleans, Tampa Bay, @ Minnesota, and St. Louis. I think the Falcons will win at least two of those games to finish no worse than 10-6. Washington has @ Baltimore, @ Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and @ San Francisco. I think two are guaranteed wins and the other two are winnable at least. My inclination is that Atlanta wins the #6 seed, but I wouldn't be shocked by Washington. I think Dallas has the hardest road, probably needing to win three of those four games to make the playoffs.

Over in the AFC, Tennessee (11-1) has the #1 seed with Pittsburgh (9-3) nipping at their heels. I think Tennessee holds on to retain the #1 seed and the Steelers will have to settle for #2. Interestingly enough, in Week 16, Tennessee plays at Pittsburgh. It could be a preview of what the AFC Championship game looks like, although the location might be reversed. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner. The NY Jets (8-4) are in the driver's seat, but New England and Miami are lurking (both 7-5). I think New England's remaining schedule is soft enough that they might go 4-0 and finish 11-5. That would put pressure on the Jets to do the same. The first three games should be easy enough but that match-up against Miami in Week 17 could very well have some serious playoff implications. Denver is sitting pretty in the AFC West and should finish with the #4 seed.

It is not inconceivable that Miami, New England, and the Jets could all finish 11-5. That would create a fun little scrum with Indianapolis (8-4) and Baltimore (8-4) also vying for the #5 and #6 seeds. Indianapolis looks as though it has a real shot to go 12-4, depending on whether or not they can take Jacksonville and Tennessee is playing their A-team in the last two weeks of the season. Baltimore probably has the hardest road as they take on Washington, Pittsburgh, @ Dallas, and Jacksonville. But this still gives them a reasonable opportunity to go 12-4 or 11-5. If Baltimore did finish 11-5 and Miami beats the Jets in Week 17, Indianapolis would probably secure the #5 seed and we would be left looking at a lot of tiebreakers to see who would get the #6 between Baltimore, Miami, and the Jets. If the Jets were to win that last game, they win the division and the tiebreaker is between Baltimore and New England.

No matter what happens, I'm currently leaning towards Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee in the AFC Championship and NY Giants vs. someone from the NFC South (can't quite decide yet).