Bowl Anticipation

A mildly surprising 10 for 10 for me in the BCS games based off last week's speculation. Granted, I never took a stand on who would win between Virginia Tech and Boston College and I did have to hold out the caveat that the Sugar Bowl could have taken Virginia Tech, but overall, I think I did quite well. Now, the question is how things will play out and what the quality of the games will be.

Ironically, I suspect that the people who run the BCS are quietly becoming fans of the Big 10. If Texas beats Ohio St. (something I think will happen), Texas will complain no matter what happens in the title game. If Oklahoma wins, Texas will claim that they are worth of co-champion status because they beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. If Florida wins, Texas will use that as proof that they should have been put into the championship game as they had already proven that Oklahoma was an inferior opponent.

The BCS folks would also probably prefer it if Penn St. knocked off USC (also unlikely), just to keep USC from complaining too loudly that they deserved a shot at the title. This is less of a concern since the Pac-10 was just a bad conference this year and since USC’s loss was in-conference, there is little sympathy for them. USC garners about as much support as Penn St. did after their loss to Iowa and that isn’t much.

I think the match-up for the national title is the correct one within the confines of the system we have. Would it be nice to have a playoff so that Texas and USC could fight it out on the field? Sure. But that’s not going to happen this season. Oklahoma was ruled the winner of the Big 12 South by the rules established by the Big 12. They did what they had to do and have been rewarded for it. Starting about the mid-way point of the season, people began to feel that the national title game should be the Big 12 South champ (and presumably the Big 12 champ) vs. the SEC champ. We have that and I think it will be a good game with only a little bit of bitching from the peanut gallery.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas will probably beat down Ohio St. Ohio St. has improved, but I think Texas is a much better team and will pull away throughout the game. Ohio St.’s only real chance is if Texas is so distracted by their anger of not playing for the national title that Ohio St. get’s the jump on them.

Rose Bowl: I like Penn St. but I just don’t see any way that they can beat USC. Penn St. only barely beat Ohio St. and USC beat Ohio St. rather soundly. Plus, USC will have a significant home field advantage playing in the Rose Bowl. I hope Penn St. keeps it close, but I think USC’s athleticism will help them pull away as the game goes on.

Sugar Bowl: Small teams have pulled big upsets in the past. I don’t think this will be one of them. Utah is going to face an Alabama team irritated by “what-ifs” and pushed on by a huge crowd advantage. I suspect that Alabama will run constantly and just bludgeon Utah into submission mid-way through the 3rd quarter.

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati is probably going to be suffering a case of “just happy to be here” when they match up against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech’s coaching staff is experienced and will probably use special teams to pull a few surprises on Cincinnati. Virginia Tech has lost focus at times this season and that gives Cincinnati a fighting chance, but I’m inclined to think that veteran leadership will carry this game.

Title game: I’m torn here. Florida has de-facto home field advantage with the game being played in the Orange Bowl and I think the SEC schedule has toughened them up a bit more. However, I also think that Oklahoma is built like Alabama but with a better passing game and Florida did have some fits with that team. I’m leaning toward Florida at the moment but I would not be at all surprised to see Oklahoma win this game. Either way, I think the game will be closer (and better) than the last two national title games.

Of the lesser bowl games, the ones that might be good games to watch are the Hawaii Bowl (Hawaii vs. Notre Dame), the Alamo Bowl (Missouri vs. Northwestern), the Insight Bowl (Kansas vs. Minnesota), and the International Bowl (Buffalo vs. Connecticut). People might prefer other bowls, but these intrigue me.