Week 17

In contrast to previous years, Week 17 still matters to a large degree in regard to some fairly prominent seeds.

Things are little more set on the AFC side. Tennessee has clinched the #1 seed and Pittsburgh has clinched the #2 seed. Indianapolis is definitely in and I think that because of the way the tiebreakers work, they are assured of the #5 seed win or lose this Sunday. That leaves the #3, #4, and #6 seeds. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner and the #4 seed will go to the AFC West winner but who those will be is the question.

The winner of the San Diego-Denver game will win the division and the #4 seed. The loser stays home during the playoffs. Currently Miami and New England are tied for the AFC East lead with Miami holding the tiebreaker. The NY Jets are a game out. New England plays Buffalo this weekend and I think it is likely that they will win that game. The Jets and Miami play each other. If Miami wins, they will win the division through tiebreaker. If the Jets win, they would need New England to lose to Buffalo to win the division. If the Jets win and New England wins, New England wins the division outright.

The #6 seed is currently held by Baltimore who close out the season at home against Jacksonville. As long as they win, they will get in as the #6 seed. If they lose, they could lose out to New England if Miami wins the division. I think Baltimore would win a tiebreaker against the Jets. That would mean that the most likely scenario has Indianapolis travelling West to Denver or San Diego while Baltimore would go to either Miami or New England.

On the NFC side, things are still a little more in play. The Giants have clinched the #1 seed and the #2 seed will go to the NFC South winner (likely Carolina). However, there is a slim chance that if Carolina loses to New Orleans and Atlanta wins against St. Louis, Atlanta might win the division. I’m not 100% sure that Carolina has locked up all the tiebreakers. But I would expect Carolina to beat New Orleans and take the #2 seed.

Minnesota and Chicago are dueling it out for the NFC North crown and the likely #3 seed. Arizona has already won the NFC West and currently sits in the #4 spot. If Minnesota wins against the Giants on Sunday, they win the division and the #3 seed. If they lose and Chicago beats Houston, Chicago wins the North, although I think Arizona could pull up to a #3 seed with a win against Seattle if Chicago takes the North.

Atlanta is in the playoffs and still has the outside chance at the division crown, but they are likely going to be the #5 seed and likely looking at a trip to Arizona. Dallas is in the driver’s seat for the #6 seed. If they beat Philadelphia, they are in. If they lose, the door opens for Tampa Bay who will be playing Oakland. If both Dallas and Tampa Bay lose, the spot goes to Chicago, assuming Chicago beats Houston and Minnesota wins the division. If Dallas, Tampa Bay and Chicago all lose, the spot goes to Philadelphia. Theoretically, if Atlanta lost and Dallas won, Dallas might move up to the #5 spot, but I’m not sure about the various tiebreakers. Plus, I don’t think it’s likely that Atlanta would lose to St. Louis.

I don’t have a lot of faith in Dallas, so I’m inclined to think that Tampa Bay will win the #6 seed and travel to Minnesota (the Giants will not be playing their starters so Minnesota should win that last game), while Atlanta travels to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.