Prediction Time

At long last the moment has come. It appears that the media is predicting an Obama win. It is certainly possible, but I am inclined to believe that it will be much closer than what is currently predicted. The way I see it, there are a few states that have the potential to flip to one side or the other from their 2004 positions. I will say up front that if any state outside of the ones that I’ve listed and discussed flip, it is going to be a very bad night for the other person.

Kerry states: Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania
Bush states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Maine: I really don’t expect Maine to flip, but I felt it was necessary to include it because of what could happen in the second district. As the more conservative of the two (and smaller) there is at least a chance that it could have 1 EV peeled off for Mr. McCain, even if Mr. Obama wins the overall state. Given the logical way that I’ve outlined a tie could occur, this vote could be very important.

New Hampshire: Of all the Kerry states, I think this the one most likely to flip. Mr. McCain has made a second home for himself in this state and it has always been the most conservative of the New England states (meaning that it’s perfect for Mr. McCain’s brand of conservatism). The only real unknown is how strongly the Massachusetts exiles that populate the southern border will turn out for Mr. Obama. It was these people in particular that drove the state to Mr. Kerry. Without a Massachusetts man in the race, these folks might be a little less enthusiastic.

Pennsylvania: This is a state that should not be in play. However, the more conservative Democrats of western Pennsylvania have never quite gotten over the “bitter clingers” comments that were made over the summer. Even worse for Mr. Obama, over the weekend the transcript of an interview he gave in 2007 was released where he noted that he favors using price controls and other means to prevent the construction of new coal plants (clean or otherwise) in the US. Given that western Pennsylvania’s economy is heavily dependent on coal mining, this attitude could result in the loss of thousands of mining and processing jobs. A switch of about 75,000 votes of people who voted for Mr. Kerry would turn the state red for the first time in twenty years.

Florida: This state has always showed it to be close, but it is unlikely that it will flip. The African-American population is lower in Florida than in the rest of the South and has turned out very heavily for Democrats in the past. The Cuban population is apparently very galvanized against Mr. Obama out of fear that he will impose Socialism-lite and they fled to the US to escape that. In addition, there is a very large military absentee vote that will heavily favor Mr. McCain (estimates are that Mr. McCain wins the military vote nearly 3-1).

North Carolina: NC normally would not be so close, but during the bailout period, there were shortages of gas and other supplies which drove voter anger up significantly. Mr. Obama is doing well in the Research Triangle and in several swing counties. However, Mr. McCain is still showing well due to high rural support. I think North Carolina will stay in the red column mostly due to absentee military support again. Quite a few military personnel are stationed out of Ft. Bragg and will probably break the tie between the rural and city voters.

Virginia: Mr. Obama has been polling well in this state. Like North Carolina, Virginia will have a large absentee military vote (Navy) that will heavily favor Mr. McCain. Unlike North Carolina though, Mr. Obama has been polling ahead by 5-7 points, rather than the 2-3 seen south. Rural turnout will be high and most of it will counterbalance the heavy blue regions of northern Virginia. My gut says that Virginia will stay red, but I think it will be very close and I would not be shocked to see a statewide recount ordered on Wednesday.

Ohio: Mr. Obama has made a big push in Ohio, but it is unlikely that he will swing the state. If Mr. Obama has problems with the western Pennsylvania voters, he has had equal or greater problems with that same style of voters who populate southeastern Ohio. Democratic wins in Ohio depend on capturing this region to break the tie between the three big cities and the rural voters. If Mr. Obama is not holding these regions, he will not win the state.

Indiana: Chicago dominates the northwestern Indiana media market and will probably pull the union voters to Mr. Obama. Also, Indiana has a large portion of the state devoted to ethanol production and those farmers may not be highly inclined towards Mr. McCain. However at its heart, Indiana is a red state. Mr. Bush won Indiana by better than 20 points and although Mr. Obama will capture quite a few of the margin, I think it is unlikely that he can make up the whole distance in one cycle.

Iowa: This is the first state on either side that is all but guaranteed to switch sides. Mr. Obama did well here during the caucuses and Mr. McCain’s opposition to ethanol will play havoc with farmers in this state. Iowans are very comfortable with Democrats and I see no reason that they won’t stand with Mr. Obama in this election.

Missouri: Missouri is returning to its bellwether status after trending hard right in the last campaign. Mr. Obama will obviously dominate St. Louis and Kansas City while Mr. McCain takes the rural portions of the state. That leaves the outer suburbs to decide the state, much as in elections past. Missouri has been swinging back and forth in the polls that I have watched, but it looks like it is still tilting red slightly. If Mr. Obama wins this election, I believe that he will win Missouri. As of yet, I see no reason to stop believing in the adage, “So goes Missouri, so goes the nation.”

Colorado: Colorado is hard to gauge. It is like Virginia in that it is mostly conservative rural, but it has had a large influx of liberals to major cities. It also has an absentee military population (Air Force), but a much smaller amount than in the three states mentioned previously. Much will probably depend on how the Hispanic turnout is. If it’s high, it is likely the state will go for Mr. Obama. If it is low, the rural and military vote should probably overwhelm the city vote and it stays red. Unlike some of the other states, I haven’t been able to get any real on-the-ground info here and can only go with my gut instincts.

New Mexico: Like Iowa, this state will almost assuredly flip back from red to blue. It has been close, but Gov. Richardson has been working hard for Mr. Obama and it only takes a thousand or so votes to flip the state.

Nevada: Nevada has always been close, especially with the growing unions in Las Vegas. However, Nevada as a whole is very liaise-fair and generally opposed to the type of big government strategies offered by Democrats. Mr. Obama will probably make it close with the anti-Yucca Mountain crowd, but I think even some of the unions will oppose him due to the card check issue.

On a whole, I have been anticipating this election coming down to how Colorado turns. It still might, but there are a few whispers in some states that I hadn’t really considered, such as Virginia and Pennsylvania. I do believe that if Mr. McCain makes his case and Pennsylvania flips from red to blue, the race is over and Mr. McCain will have won. Likewise, if Ohio goes blue, the race is over and Mr. Obama will have won.

I think the key early state to watch will be New Hampshire. Officially, New Hampshire’s polls close at 7, but they are allowed to stay open another hour in the 13 major towns. Effectively this means that the news networks won’t even dream of a call until 8 pm. If New Hampshire is called early for Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain, I think the other will have a bad night. If it takes awhile, the race will be close and the late winner will have a leg up for the remainder of the night.

I would also say that although Ohio polls close at 7:30, there will be at least one judge imposed extension so who knows how late things will go here.

I would also offer the opinion that exit polls will break hard for Mr. Obama but that they will be off like they were four years ago. I don’t know how far off, but off.