BCS Troubles

So we are now firmly entrenched in the madness that is the BCS. A couple of things have been decided, but for the most part, it’s a holy mess. Here is what we know now:

Big 10 – Penn St. has won the conference and been invited to the Rose Bowl. At #8 in the BCS standings, they are in no danger of being offered a chance to play in the title game. They can thank Ohio St. for stinking things up for the Big 10 the last two years. Ohio St. incidentally is #10 in the BCS and will play in the Capital One Bowl.

Big East – Cincinnati has the inside track. Although there are two games left, if they beat Syracuse next week, they win the conference and will be invited to a BCS game (likely the Orange Bowl). If they lose, West Virginia will probably squeak in. Only the conference winner will be invited to a BCS game this year.

ACC – The ACC keeps shifting and I’m not sure who is on top in each division. They have one more regular season game that will probably shake things up even more and then the two winners will play the conference championship on Dec. 6. Like the Big East, only the conference champion will be invited to a BCS bowl game this year (Orange).

SEC – Now things start to get interesting. Alabama and Florida have already won their respective divisions and will play for the overall title on Dec. 6. Assuming both teams win the game they have in-between then, the winner will go to the National Title Game and the loser will probably also be taken as a replacement candidate (probably Sugar Bowl).

Pac 10 – The Pac 10 is weird this year. USC is 9-1 and ranked #5 in the BCS. However, they are not in first place. Oregon St. is 7-3 overall, but 6-1 in conference and USC’s only loss is to Oregon St. Since the conference title is based on your conference record and not your overall record, Oregon St. and USC are tied and Oregon St. has the tiebreaker since they beat USC in the head-to-head match-up. If Oregon St. wins next week, they will win the Pac 10 and be invited to the Rose Bowl to play Penn St. USC will likely get an at-large berth in another BCS bowl, but several things have to go their way to get into the title game.

Big 12 – Missouri has already won the Big 12 North so that part is easy. There is currently a three-way tie between Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma for the lead in the Big 12 South with each team at 10-1. Since they’ve all beaten each other in a round robin fashion, the tiebreaker falls to highest BCS ranking. Texas is #2 while Oklahoma is #3. The real rub though could come in next weeks games. Texas plays Texas A&M and Texas Tech plays Baylor. Neither game should produce an upset. Oklahoma on the other hand, plays Oklahoma St., a team that is also very good and has a history of upsetting Oklahoma even when Oklahoma has been a much better team. If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St., Texas Tech will win the South by virtue of their win over Texas since they will now be the only teams at 11-1. For Oklahoma to win the South, they would need Texas A&M to somehow upset Texas while winning their game against Oklahoma St. Then we would see who wins the Big 12 Title Game. If Missouri or Texas Tech wins the Big 12 Title game, they would go to the Fiesta Bowl and other scenarios play out for the national title game. But if Oklahoma or Texas wins the Big 12 Title, they will go the title game.

A Missouri or Texas Tech win in the Big 12 represents a headache for the BCS as then either Oklahoma or Texas will probably have sufficient ranking to warrant the #2 slot in the national title game. We would then be faced with the possibility that the National Champion may not be a division winner. The last time this happened Nebraska managed to get the #2 ranking despite not making the Big 12 title game due to their loss to Colorado. They faced off against Oklahoma and Oklahoma destroyed them.

We should also note that Utah has earned a berth in a BCS game by being the highest ranked non-BCS school in the top 12. Utah is ranked #7 while Boise St. is #9 but the BCS is only forced to honor one non-BCS conference team and the highest ranked will get preference.

Despite all the nasty little things that might happen I think things will shake out and the BCS games will be something like as follows: Texas will win the Big12 title and be invited to the national title game. Florida will upset Alabama and also be invited to the national title game. In the final standings, Texas will be #1 and Florida #2 so the Fiesta Bowl will get one pick, followed by the Sugar Bowl. I believe each bowl will pick USC and Oklahoma but I’m not sure who will take what. I’m guessing that the Fiesta will take USC because of proximity, but Oklahoma fans travel well so there is no guarantee.

One those selections are done, the Rose Bowl will take their two teams (Oregon St. and Penn St.). The Fiesta Bowl might take Utah next since the Pac 10 has had trouble with the Mountain teams this year and there is large Utah fan base in that region of the country. The Sugar Bowl would likely take Alabama to face off against Oklahoma and tap into the regional market. The Orange Bowl would then be forced to take Cincinnati and whoever wins the ACC.

Rose: Oregon St. vs. Penn St.
Orange: Cincinnati vs. ACC winner
Sugar: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta: USC vs. Utah
National Title (at the Orange Bowl): Texas vs. Florida