Correcting the Football Projections

An amendment is required for my Bowl Projections. In the Rose Bowl I had placed Cal as an “at large” and then put West Virginia in the Orange Bowl as the Big East Champion. However that did not reflect the current reality of the college football world. Had Rutgers remained unbeaten until it faced West Virginia and then lost to West Virginia, there would have been a three-way tie for first place in the Big East between West Virginia, Rutgers and Louisville. In that situation, the tiebreaker would have been the BCS standings of each team, of which West Virginia would have been highest.

However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:

National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech

These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.

So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.

On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.

In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.

If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:

AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England

NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina