Thanksgiving Football

Well, another weekend of football has come and gone. Turkey day was good and I even managed to avoid killing anyone with my cooking.

The BCS bowl games became much clearer with several key losses. First, USC defeating Notre Dame vaulted them firmly over Michigan and unless USC goes down to UCLA, they will play Ohio St. in the National Championship. This of course must annoy the Rose Bowl because it means that the Rose Bowl would have been the de facto national championship in the pre-BCS era.

In the other 4 conferences, the championships are set. The Big 12 is Nebraska vs. Oklahoma with the winner going to the Fiesta Bowl where they will play Boise St. Florida plays Arkansas for the SEC championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. If Arkansas wins, there will be no debate, but if Florida wins, Urban Meyer will be grousing for quite a while about his team not getting a shot at the National Title game. So the BCS folks are quietly hoping that Arkansas kicks Florida’s butt.

The Orange Bowl will feature the ACC Champ (Wake Forrest or Georgia Tech) vs. the Big East Champ. The Big East champion will be determined by the West Virginia –Rutgers game. Most people are pretty confident that Louisville will beat UConn, leaving Louisville at 11-1. If Rutgers wins, they have the tiebreaker against Louisville and will win the Big East. If West Virginia wins, Louisville will be the only one loss team in the conference and will win. However, if West Virginia wins and Louisville somehow loses to UConn, there will be a three-way tie and the overall BCS standings will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl.

That just leaves the two at-large spots in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl, since Michigan will take Ohio St.’s spot in the Rose. Next highest in the BCS standings without a championship spot is LSU at #5, which is an automatic berth in a BCS game if there is room. Given that no one wants to see a rematch of SEC teams in the Sugar Bowl, LSU will go play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

That just leaves the Sugar Bowl and who will play Florida or Arkansas. On the surface, it would seem that Wisconsin should get the nod, as they are the next best team that’s not a champion, but apparently there is a rule in the BCS that no conference can send more than 2 teams to BCS games. Thus, Wisconsin can’t get to the BCS even though they may end up finishing the season in the #6 spot of the BCS. Running down the rankings, there are two possibilities. If Rutgers wins the Big East, Louisville would go (assuming they beat UConn) as they are currently ranked #6 and the top six teams automatically go. But, if Louisville wins the Big East, the next team would be Notre Dame, who are currently #10 in the BCS standings and would trump any SEC team ahead of them as there are already two SEC teams in the BCS.

Thus, my current BCS Bowl projections currently shake out as:

National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boise St.
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame

On the NFL front, the AFC leaders tightened their grip while the wild card spots got a little looser. Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, and New England currently hold the 1-4 seeds respectively and only some jostling between Indy, San Diego and Baltimore seem likely in shifting the seeds. The wild cards are Denver, and Kansas City, but they are both sitting with 7-4 records and Denver will be trotting out Jay Cutler starting next week at QB. Thus the door is now open for the three teams tied in the #7 hole: NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. I firmly believe that one of those AFC West teams will go down (I had firmly believed that it would be KC until Thursday), so one of teams currently on the outside will make it. The easy choice would be Jacksonville, but after they lost to Buffalo, they need some soul searching to find themselves. Cincinnati still has a very hard schedule to overcome and the Jets are still not that convincing. I’m going to need another week to see who is capable of seizing that last spot.

On the NFC side, even with their loss, Chicago is still in a strong position. Dallas has seized control of the NFC East and if they beat the Giants this upcoming week, they will be in good position to grab the #2 seed. New Orleans has a one game lead in the south and if Carolina continues to play Jekyll and Hyde, New Orleans should be able to hold itself up and make it in as the #3 seed. Seattle is currently sitting as the #4 seed and will be getting back most of its starters. The NY Giants and Carolina are the #5 and 6 seeds but things are so mediocre in this area that only Arizona, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are truly out of the playoff picture.