The Full Nixon

An old adage in politics: It's not the crime, it's the cover-up.

Operation: Fast and Furious was a government operation that has gone very, very badly. The operation was, in theory, an attempt to use American weapons to track, and be able to prosecute, the crimes committed by Mexican druglords. In its essence, a branch of the Department of Justice (ATF) authorized the sale of American manufactured weapons (assault rifles and such) on American soil (mostly in Phoenix) to known agents of Mexican druglords. These weapons would then be smuggled across the border and then be traced and tied to the various cartels when used.

Things blew up when an American border patrol agent, Brian Terry, was killed during one of these smuggling operations by the weapons in question. This caused a blow up because it exposed the operation long before it was ready and what the ATF did was technically illegal. However, the pebble that really started the avalanche was when the House Oversight Committee sent a request to the DOJ asking what they knew about the operation. On Feb. 4, 2011, the DOJ responded with a letter denying any knowledge of the operation. The committee went through the normal procedure of questioning the various ATF folks and found that someone in the DOJ did know about the operation and had signed off on it.

This started the climb up the ladder. Certain low level operators handed over things and gave testimony that this operation was known about at the highest levels (i.e. AG Eric Holder). Mr. Holder was summoned several times to testify and each time he evaded key questions. He promised to submit whatever documentation the DOJ had on the operation but those documents have not been forthcoming. Frustrated, the Committee scheduled a vote (for today) to hold Mr. Holder in Contempt of Congress in an attempt to force the handover of these documents.

At the eleventh hour, Mr. Holder petitioned President Obama to cite Executive Privilege over the documents in question. This request was granted. It is this point that may have turned this into a full Nixonian production. Only the President is covered by Executive Privilige. Cabinet folk and all other appointed positions are equally beholden to both the President and Congress. By invoking EP, Mr. Obama is stating that he was aware and personally involved in whatever these documents involve. Yet Mr. Holder has testified before Congress that the President had no knowledge of anything involving this operation. Someone is lying and now interest in these documents is going up as much as Congress' interest in the Nixon tapes.

The best case for Mr. Obama at this stage is that he is misapplying EP and it was an honest mistake. The EP is retracted or overturned and Mr. Holder will be held liable for anything incriminating found in these documents. Worst case scenario is that the President was directly involved in something illegal and that this is a full blown attempt to save himself (a la Nixon). If this is the case and the EP is overturned due to improper use (which again there is 1970's precedent for) and the documents show this, Mr. Obama could be set up for some very hard questions and potential criminal charges.

The one thing I am sure of is that there won't be any move towards impeachment unless Mr. Obama wins a second term. Even then, the Republicans won't do anything overt unless they have absolute concrete evidence of wrongdoing. The bad taste that was left in everyone's mouth following the Clinton impeachment left both sides wary of moving in this direction for purely political motives.

However, Mr. Holder may not fare so well. Much remains to be seen and I would expect a lot of courtroom fury over the next several months as well as a lot of annoying -gate references.