Tuesday, June 05, 2012

Last Call

Today is the last call for primaries. Yes, Utah will still have its contest on June 26, but with 49 of 50 states done after today, elections are effectively over until November.

Normally this day would have come and gone without too much fanfare. Mr. Romney has enough delegates to be the nominee as does Mr. Obama, so the contests in CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD don't count for much. I've not even heard of any interesting primaries in the lower races, although I would think that California must have something. But the day's news is being consumed by the recall election in Wisconsin.

There are actually several recalls going on in Wisconsin today. The one against Governor Walker is grabbing all the headlines, but there are also recalls against the Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch and four Republican state senators. Polling has been highly favorable to Walker with the final polls showing him with anything between a 3 and 12 point lead. Polls close at 8 pm CDT (9 pm EDT).

Early reports have turnout being heavy but subdued. The general feeling is that Wisconsinites are suffering from election fatigue, having had congressional recall elections and a nasty state supreme court judicial race in 2011, only to be followed by the general primaries, the recall primary, and the recall election in 2012.

Many talking heads will be parsing the data from today's results, trying to find a way to apply it to the November general election. This is most likely an exercise in futility but that's what they are paid for. About the only substantial thing that has come out of this is that the Romney camp has stated that they will be tapping into the GotV mechanism that Gov. Walker has built in preparation for this recall. The theory being that they will force the Obama campaign to spend more money than planned to retain Wisconsin, bleeding it from other needed states, such as Ohio and Florida.

*UPDATE*

A local station is reporting that turnout may reach 65% of registered voters. Could be a long night of vote counting.

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