State Trends - July

Time for this month's update of state trends. There isn't much movement between this month and last month but this is all without the influence of the Obamacare decision. The shift between July and August could be dramatic, especially as things start to gear up towards the conventions.

The three changes I've made since June are that I've downgraded Michigan and upgraded Missouri and Arizona. There was a lot of polling around the middle of June that showed Michigan slipping into Toss Up territory. There was one poll that showed Mr. Obama with an 8-point lead, but the others showed him with only a 1 or 2 point lead and one poll even showed Mr. Romney up by one. All of these led me to downgrade Michigan to "Lean Obama" from "Likely Obama".

The Supreme Court's strike down of most of the Arizona Illegal Immigration law might motivate Hispanics in that state, but until then, the most recent polling has shown Mr. Romney's lead grow to over 10-points. As such, I bounced it up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".

Missouri is more of a feeling. Mr. Romney's lead in Missouri is only about 5-7 points according to recent polls. However, I've seen a couple of articles talking about how Missouri is no longer a bellweather but a red state. I've held that view for several years now. There has also been some discontented rumblings from Missouri Democrats, which suggests to me that they are starting to distance themselves from Mr. Obama. Given that, I thought it merited moving Missouri up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".

Everything else remains the same and I wouldn't expect too much movement until September, but a lot could happen of the next month if people start paying attention to the campaign earlier than usual.