Electoral Predictions

Since I've lost the ability to post pictures in IE7 (and that's all I have at work), I've had to create my predictions using 270towin. I've opted for three different scenarios:

The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.

It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.

The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.

That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.

The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.

Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.

Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.

The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.

I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.

We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.