Reelection

Blogger crapped out on me just before 10 last night so I was unable to do any additional updates, but there wasn't too much else to say.

For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.

The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.

Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.