A New Pharaoh

There has not been a Pharaoh ruling Egypt since Augustus Caesar ordered the execution of Ptolemy XV Caesarion in 30 BC; although some might argue that Gamal Abdel Nassar came very close. That seems to have changed with the new constitution ratified by the Egyptian parlament.

In the new constitution Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has been granted sweeping powers that President's Nassar and Mubarak could only have dreamed of. It is not quite to the level of Pharaoh (as I don't believe he has been granted dynastic succession) but the powers are vast and the protesters filling the streets have been chanting against "Pharaoh Morsi" while they attack Muslim Brotherhood sites.

Unlike some of the other Arab Spring sites (such as Syria), I don't believe that the protesters will win if they move to take military action. But a civil war is certainly possible, which will disrupt Egypt and the whole region for quite a while.

Add to this potential civil, the actual civil war in Syria and the UN's recognition of Palestine as a non-observer state yesterday and you have a reciepe for some serious nastiness in the Middle East.

The one aspect that seems to have escaped people is the full implication of what UN recognition of Palestine means. First, it means that the Oslo Accords are officially dissolved. The PLO coucil will now operate as a legislative body and any new treaties will have to be negotiated with it.

Second, and with broader implications, Israel is no longer negotiating with a people group but a declared state. Israel has stated that under international law, they will move to openly annex all territory where Jewish settlements have been established in Judea and Samaria. This is likely to seen as an assault on Palestinian territory (as they claim all land lost in the 1967 Six-Day War) and will likely move to force international sanctions through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or move to open war with whatever partners they can find.

This grows even futher when you consider that Likud (the ruling party) has nominated a slate that is more conservative than they've had in years. If they get a plurality (and it is widely expected that they will) in the January elections, it will be seen as notice to the Arabs that they are ready and perhaps willing for a fight. More so with expectation that Iran will hit a critical milestone for the development of their nuclear arsenal in late Spring of next year.

Needless to say, I think it is going to get even uglier over there before it gets any better.