Troubled Blue Waters

Despite the widespread damage, I think we can all be thankful that the effects of Hurricane Sandy were not as bad as they initially seemed to be. Clean up will take a while, but there doesn't seem to be anything damaged beyond the ability to repair.

Meanwhile, there is the matter of the election a week from today. For the longest time, Mr. Obama seemed to be narrowly ahead and holding off Mr. Romney. Now, things seem to have changed. Mr. Obama lost the momentum after the first debate and has failed in his efforts to get it back. Still, while the polls narrowed further, Mr. Obama still seemed as though he was in control of the situation to make it tight.

However, two bits of news have trickled out this week that are turning things a bit grimmer for Mr. Obama. The first is that whether because of money advantage or being able to redistribute resources, the Romney campaign is now investing money in blue states, both in advertising and GotV efforts. The two largest investments have been in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is a frequent Rebublican trap as it always seems tantilizingly close, only to have Philadelphia snap it back to the Democratic column. Minnesota though it interesting. Minnesota hasn't gone red since the Nixon wave of 1972. This may be an advertising play into the bleed over markets of western Wisconsin and northern Iowa, but it has attracted enough attention that the Obama campaign has bought air time to counter the Romney ad buy.

The second, and more significant issue for Mr. Obama, is the Gallup report of early voting. Gallup is reporting in a broad poll that was done, that about 15% of registered voters have gone ahead and cast their ballot and that the percentage of early voting may rise to 33% of all registered voters. This is not groundbreaking as the percentage of votes cast in 2008 also had 33% of them being cast early. What is disturbing for the Obama campaign is that of those 15% already cast, Mr. Romney is leading 52-46. Even worse for the President is that among those who plan to cast their ballot early, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are tied 49-49. Mr. Romney is leading among those who plan to vote on election day 51-45.

Mr. Obama's strength in 2008 came largely through early voting. In Ohio, John McCain actually beat Mr. Obama in votes cast on election day, but Mr. Obama had already jumped out to a huge lead and Mr. McCain could not make up the difference. If Mr. Obama does not go into election day with the lead, he could be in real trouble.

One caveat to this analysis though. Gallup's report was done nationally and it is quite possible that most of Mr. Romney's support has come from states that he was going to win anyway. By my current calculation Mr. Romney is leading Mr. Obama 248-237 with six states in true toss up status (NH, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV). If any state outside of these six break against their current leanings, I think it will safe to predict an easy win for the man who does it.