Winowning the NFL

One of the guys I sit next to, Robert, does fantasy football so we talk about football a bit. Even though we’re only on Week 6, the playoffs are coming firmer into focus, at least in the AFC. Right now you have 7 teams fighting for 6 playoff spots with two teams as outside shots: New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Denver, and San Diego. Kansas City and Pittsburgh are the outside looking in teams.

Because of the brutal schedules for Baltimore and Cincinnati, and Indianapolis’ inconsistency, I ruefully have to say that it looks like the #1 seed may fall into New England’s lap. Other things may happen, but New England has the appearance of a 12-4 team, although one that could get bounced in its first playoff game. Regardless, New England will win the AFC East just as Indianapolis will win the AFC South. These two facts are just givens.

Baltimore and Cincinnati are both flawed teams. Baltimore’s offense is okay but nothing great. Cincinnati can’t stop the run. One of these teams will win the division. Personally, I hope its Cincinnati, but I don’t think we’re going to know until they play each other. Out West, Denver and San Diego both have schedules with enough weak teams that both should make the playoffs. My gut tells me that San Diego will win the division if Marty Schottenheimer does find ways to fritter it away during close games (see Baltimore game). That leaves the Cincinnati-Baltimore loser and Jacksonville fighting it out for that last playoff spot. In this tight of a race, every game counts.

On the NFC side, things are very murky. Only two things are evident right now: that the road to the Super Bowl will almost definitely go through Soldier Field and that only Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and San Francisco are not in the playoff hunt. Seattle and St. Louis are on an inside track, but the NFC East and South are so cluttered that it will very difficult to see who comes out of those races without a few more games. I think the Eagles will make it as well as the Saints and perhaps the Panthers. But at this point, the Bears are looking almost unstoppable and it may not matter who fills out the other five slots, especially if they are batter, bruised, and bloodied from their divisional games when the face the Bears.