Playoff Mists

Continuing with our series of football updates, San Diego is moving more and more into the team to beat. If the Bengals manage to beat Indianapolis tonight (and that’s a big if), San Diego will secure a first-round bye. Unfortunately for them, they have to keep playing their A-list players even if Indy loses because Baltimore keeps winning and Baltimore would have the tiebreaker if the two clubs finish the season tied. So, in order to secure the #1 seed, San Diego has to finish the season one game up on Baltimore and given Baltimore’s schedule, that could mean that San Diego must finish at 14-2 to Baltimore’s 13-3. Fortunately, San Diego finishes up against some pud opponents (Seattle and Arizona). As such, it seems very likely that San Diego and Baltimore will be your #1 and #2 seeds.

Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.

That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.

On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.

Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.

Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.

Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.

So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:

AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England

NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle

Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.