Defensive Morons

Well the Bengals lost last night, mostly because the defensive coordinator is a moron. After watching 14 games this season, anyone could tell you that the Bengals front 4 is not good enough to get a consistent pass rush. But at no time did I see the Bengals try to blitz with any regularity. What’s more, the linebackers and corners dropped and covered deep, routinely leaving the 5-8 yard dump pass over the middle open. So Peyton Manning and co. dinked and dunked the Bengals to death. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer never got into a rhythm due to the offense’s strong desire to push the Colts run defense. They did that well, but Palmer never got comfortable and the O-line could not contain the Colts pass rush.

All told, this vaults three games into the spotlight to see who makes the AFC playoffs: New England at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Denver, and NY Jets at Miami on Monday night. Denver plays San Francisco in its final game so if the Broncos beat the Bengals, Denver is almost sure to finish 10-6 and get in. Likewise for the Jets: they play Oakland at home in the last game so if they beat the Dolphins, they will finish at 10-6 and make the playoffs. Jacksonville finishes the season at Kansas City and they play terrible on the road so if the Jaguars lose to New England, they are almost sure to finish the season at 8-8. Even if they win against New England, losing to Kansas City would mean a 9-7 finish with a 6-6 record against the AFC, probably not good enough to get in.

Then you have the morass with the Bengals. If the Bengals beat Denver, they are almost guaranteed to get in, even if they lose to the Steelers the following week (assuming Jacksonville loses one of their last two games) as they will have the head to head against Denver and a better AFC record than Jacksonville. They would only be threatened if Buffalo wins their last two games to also finish 9-7 with a 7-5 record against the AFC. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents with a minimum of 4, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule. But, Buffalo closes out the season against Baltimore and the Ravens might still be playing hard to try and get the #1 or #2 seed. If the Bengals lose to Denver, they will need the Jets to lose to Miami or Oakland to have a shot as well as have Jacksonville go down and win against Pittsburgh.

So, I think the Jets will get in and the winner of Cincinnati – Denver will get in. How the seeds will shake out is still up in the air and it looks like the three top seeds will have to keep fighting it out to see who gets the #1 and #2 seeds.