The Momentary Calm

With the cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel signed, all the religious types are starting to sit down again. I however am taking a slightly more long view. In previous posts I thought this looked like the Amos war. I still believe that, however the finishing of it may not come for another year.

Israel and Hezbollah have signed a Hunda, a temporary halt to hostilities that Muslims use to regroup and retool before launching a fresh attack whenever it suits them. Mohammed famously used this when he signed a ten-year treaty with the tribe holding Mecca after being defeated by them in battle. Mohammed returned to Medina, regrouped his army and then launched a surprise attack two years later, successfully taking Mecca. This is what Hezbollah has agreed to.

We should also remember that Israel is still fighting with Hamas in the south. That has gotten very little airtime with the war in Lebanon, but operations continue there as well, though not to the scale as in the north.

Prime Minister Olmert’s government will fall eventually but I don’t believe it will happen in the next few days as some predict. The other parties will try, but Labor and Kedima are still in tight lockstep. There will have to be some defections for a vote of no confidence to be declared. I suspect that Olmert’s government will not collapse until he tried to implement his pull out of the West Bank. That will push enough people over the edge that the government will collapse. Once the new leaders are elected (more to the right and perhaps even a stronger representation from the Orthodox parties), Iran and Syria might feel that they have no choice but to resume fighting before Israel has a chance to recover her morale and get the army back into a strong fighting force.

Either way, I’m still holding to my position that by June of next year, we will start seeing some major happenings over there. We might recall that WWII began with Germany conquering Poland in three weeks in September. Then nothing happened until Hitler launched the campaign against France in the spring. I believe this is a lull, the calm to give the Muslim armies confidence to jump in with both feet next time.

There is also supposedly the chance that Iran could do something stupid to flare things up by Tuesday (Aug 22). I’m beginning to think that Iran is backing off that date for the moment and might defer it until next year. After all, the 12th Imam has waited over 1400 years. He can wait one more year. 2007 is looking to be a banger year over there.