The Future Governors Slate

Last time I noted the two governor's races that will be decided this November. Even though it's more than a year away, I thought I'd list the governorships that would be up in 2010, since the candicacy of Gov. Paterson (D-NY) has been in the news lately.

States where the governor is seeking relection:
New Hampshire - John Lynch (D)
Massachusetts - Deval Patrick (D)
Connecticut - Jodi Rell (R)
New York - David Paterson (D)
Maryland - Martin O'Malley (D)
Ohio - Ted Strickland (D)
Illinois - Pat Quinn (D)
Arkansas - Mike Beebe (D)
Iowa - Chet Culver (D)
Nebraska - Dave Heineman (R)
Texas - Rick Perry (R)
Colorado - Bill Ritter (D)
Idaho - Butch Otter (R)
Utah - Gary Herbert (R) (special election)
Nevada - Jim Gibbons (R)
Arizona - Jan Brewer (R)
Alaska - Sean Parnell (R)

States with an open race:
Maine - currently Democratic
Vermont - currently Republican
Rhode Island - currently Republican
Pennsylvania - currently Democratic
South Carolina - currently Republican
Georgia - currently Republican
Alabama - currently Republican
Florida - currently Republican
Tennessee - currently Democratic
Michigan - currently Democratic
Wisconsin - currently Democratic
Minnesota - currently Republican
South Dakota - currently Republican
Kansas - currently Democratic
Oklahoma - currently Democratic
New Mexico - currently Democratic
Wyoming - currently Democratic
Oregon - currently Democratic
California - currently Republican
Hawaii - currently Republican

Obviously it's way too early to speculate about anything now, but this is what will be on the docket. Plus, we'll have the senate races to look forward to as well. Should be fun.

A Return to Analysis

The legal issues that arose early this summer have now been almost completely dealt with. I hope to put the last of this to bed in October and then I can deal with the ramifications of all of it.

So in this spirit, I thought I would posit a little bit on the only two races of significance this year: the New Jersey and Virginia governorships. I know that the election of Mr. Kennedy's replacement to the Senate will also take place but there is still a lot of set up there so we won't know who the full field is until later this month.

Virginia turned blue in 2008 and has had a slate of Democratic governors in recent years. However, these have usually been in the traditional Southern Democrat model which is more conservative than their mid-Atlantic cousins. State Senator Creigh Deeds represents the Democrats while former Attorney General Bob McDonnell represents the Republicans. With the past two governorships being Democratic and a general anti-Democrat feeling running due to backlash on healthcare, Mr. McDonnell has been steadily pulling ahead since about early June. The current RCP average has him up 10 points on Mr. Deeds.

Also on the docket is the New Jersey governorship. New Jersey is a reliably Democratic state, although Republicans have been able to win state office though they tend to be a bit more liberal in their outlook. The race is a three-way between Democrat Jon Corzine (incumbent), Republican Chris Christie, and Independent Chris Daggett. More than anything else, the polls indicate a dislike for Mr. Corzine among Independents and this is probably the key on which this race will depend. At the moment it is unclear as to who Mr. Daggett is draining more votes from (Mr. Daggett is a former NJ EPA Commissioner and Deputy chief of staff to the Governor which probably indicates a larger draw of Democrats). As such Mr. Christie has consistently polled ahead, currently holding an RCP average lead of 7 points. However, it should also be noted that New Jersey is a difficult state to poll and many a race has occurred showing a Republican polling ahead, only to lose by a significant margin on Election Day. Mr. Christie will probably only be considered safe if he goes into the day with an 8-point or better lead.

If any other races start to spice up we'll have to see how those go.

Never Forget

To those who have said, ‘move on’, ‘no one cares anymore’, I say go to hell!

-Anonymous

A Comment Regarding Mr. Kennedy

I didn't write this, but I wish I had:

If they get to talk about Camelot, we get to talk about the lady in the lake.

-Jim Treacher

Political Posters

That someone was able to modify these posters and make them feel accurate says a great deal:

I also like this one:

How to Die Quickly

Green groups have been pushing Smart cars as a way to cut down emissions. Smart cares are very small and are not much more than a souped up golf cart:


The major downside to this is what happens if you get into an accident in one of these things. My vague estimations based on the damage to the red truck, suggest that impact occurred between 30-50 mph:

On the plus side, increased use of the Smart car will lead to a decrease in health care costs as fewer people will survive accidents and not run up costly ICU bills.

Mario on Harpsicord

This is beyond amusing:

Legal Complications

Because of legal complications that have arisen in my life, this blog will be put on hiatus. It is already on author view only and should I reactivate it, I will allow universal viewing again.

For now, this is Mr. X, signing off.

Pharaoh Obama?

Want to see something interesting? Some Israeli bloggers couldn't help but notice some similarities in the facial structure of Mr. Obama and Pharaoh Akhenaten:

How interesting would it be if Mr. Obama's father's family had ties back to the 18th dynasty of Egypt? This isn't that far fetched as the 18th dynasty of Egypt controlled a good portion of the Sudan and some less important members of the royal family did flee south in the upheaval following the death of Tutankhamun and minor civil war that lead to the foundation of the 19th dynasty.

Of course some Israelis have their own, less flattering, comparisons of Mr. Obama to Pharaoh, but that's another issue.

Still Alive

Work has been insanly busy and Baby X2.0 will be 4 weeks tomorrow. These two things tend to not allow one to make too many blog posts.

Simpsons Trivia

Pop Quiz time. Below I will list the common names for several popular Simpson's characters. Try to remember what their actual names are? (Highlight for the answers)

1) Sea Captain Horatio McCallister
2) Krusty the Clown Herschel Krustofski
3) Sideshow Bob Robert Underdunk Terwilliger
4) Sideshow Mel Melvin Van Horne
5) Comic Book Guy Jeff Albertson

Pakistani Pancakes

How about a joke... what the difference between Pakistan and a pancake? I don't know of any pancakes that got nuked by India. What? Too soon?

-Krusty

A few months ago, the new government of Pakistan decided that it couldn't defeat the Taliban elements in the tribal regions. So they signed a treaty giving them autonomous control over the Swat Valley. Apparently, this put blood in the water and the Taliban commander has mobilized his troops and nearly taken full control over an adjoining region (Buner) and are moving into the district of Haripur. Most distressing about all this, is that the neighboring region of Haripur (Attock) contains two nuclear plants that churn out the material needed to maintain Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. This region also gives the Taliban strategic positioning should they decide they want to go for the throat and take the capital, Islamabad, which is only 60 miles away.

There are scenarios that have been planned out where we might go in and try to either seize or destroy the nuclear reactors, but there is essentially nothing that we can do if the Taliban try to take the capital. What this does is put a huge onus on India. Obviously India will not stand for a militant Islamic government in control of Pakistan. The question is, would they invade with massive ground forces, or would they send in nuclear armed bombers to irradiate the Taliban controlled regions. We don't know and given the bitterness of the feud between Hindi and Muslims on the subcontinent, I would not be shocked by India going nuclear somewhat early in the fighting, especially if they think they can neutralize Pakistan's nuclear arsenal with a first strike.

I don't think Lord Marbury or Gerald will be able to solve this one anytime soon.

New Arks

A bit of a strange phenomenon has been cropping up around the world. Two separate replicas of Noah's ark have been built around the world. The first is by a Dutch man, Johan Huibers, who built it to the exact proportions as specified in the Bible, only 1/2 the size:

What's more, the Dutch ark actually floats. Mr. Huibers has publicly stated that he hopes to have it fully seaworthy in time to sail it to London for the 2012 Olympics.

In a similar vein, a group of brothers in Hong Kong have just finished a full scale ark (300 cubits x 50 cubits x 30 cubits). It wasn't built to float but instead will have a restaurant and children's museum. This is a picture of it still under construction:

I don't have any other pictures but I have heard stories that other people have built replicas of the ark in other places. I find it fascinating that there is such an effort from around the world to prove that Noah's ark could be built and add one more notch in the argument that the Biblical flood did actually happen.

Three Men on a Dead Man's Chest

Major Kudos to the Navy Seals for taking out the Somali pirates yesterday. They should have been prepared when the captain jumped into the water the first time, but at least we got the correct result in the end.

Now we just have to deal with the remaining pirate who was arrested. He should thank his lucky stars that he was captured today and not a couple of hundred years ago. Today he'll be taken someplace and put in prison. If he was lucky a couple of hundred years ago, he simply would have been hung. If he was unlucky, he would have either been keelhauled or had one of his arteries cut and thrown overboard to see how fast it took for the sharks to get him.

Hopefully next time this happens, the pirates will be dealt with quickly and they will learn to be much more afraid of a vessel flying the stars and stripes.

Checking the Numbers

At the beginning of the tournament, I noted what the Mike & Mike backroom boys had cooked up regarding only North Carolina and Louisville satisfying all historic criteria of past winners. Now North Carolina has won the title by stomping Michigan St., validating these numbers once again. When the tourney comes around next year, I'm hoping they repeat this segment so I can figure out what teams to put on the short list.

Incidently, although I didn't enter a pool, I did fill out a bracket and did have North Carolina winning it all. I had them playing Louisville so I lost on that end, but I still think I might have won a little money if I had entered a pool. Such is life.

Hand of God

To go with God's eye, here is a picture of God's hand:

(note the wrist)

Kings, ref. Abraham

The Biblical allegory that is Kings took a little break from the Saul/David story last night. There was the obligatory reference in the form of a modification of 1 Samuel 18:7 – Saul has slain his thousands and David his tens of thousands. But for the most part, the story focused on some clichéd writing with a minor deviation into Genesis.

This deviation involved the king’s son by his mistress. Apparently the boy is sick and was dying. Silas, reeling from the spate of bad luck that has plagued him lately, meets the Reverend Samuels to ask him how to get back into God’s good graces. Samuels doesn’t know but knows that atonement must be made in the form of sacrifice. Silas storms off in his car but promptly hits a deer. Figuring this is the first part of the sacrifice, he kills the dying animal. He then returns to the hospital to keep vigil until morning when the boy awakes. Knowing that the treatment has worked, Silas then walks away, vowing to never see them again as the price of keeping the boy alive and hopefully resuming his good standing with God.

This story has two aspects of the story of Abraham in it, although Silas is far more resistant of God’s will. In the original story, Abraham is given a test to sacrifice Isaac. Abraham complies but an angel stops him before he can cut Isaac’s throat. Instead, Abraham is given a ram to sacrifice. Silas being given a deer to kill instead of his son dying echoes this.

The other aspect of Abraham is that Silas walks away and vows not to see his mistress and her son again. This is similar to Abraham sending away his son Ishmael and his mother Hagar. The main difference is that Abraham sent away Ishmael because he mocked Abraham’s chosen heir Isaac and because Hagar grew increasingly disrespectful of her mistress Sarah, probably feeding into Ishmael’s resentment of his younger brother. In Kings, the other family is sent away because Silas sees it as an aspect of atonement in trying to get back into God’s favor and retain the crown. This puts a very different spin on motivations while keeping the nominal details the same.

Overall, this was a boring and somewhat predictable episode. Next week looks like it might get a little better by accelerating the plot against the king. Yay for civil war.

How Food Kills You

I will say that while I find most entrys on this site a bit too much for me, there are a couple that make me drool a little bit.

There Can Be Only One

Yesterday on Mike & Mike, they mentioned something that was very interesting. Apparently, their back room guys had gone over the past 20 years of NCAA basketball winners looking for commonalities. They came up with a fairly impressive list of 9 or 10 things, all legitimate statistics to look for in a basketball team. I can't remember all of them, but the ones I do remember are noted below:

1. A team will have more assists than turnovers (low turnover total)
2. The coach must have been to at least the Sweet 16 (Michigan St.'s coach was an assistant on the team the year before they won when they went to the Sweet Sixteen and took over at the end of the regular season, the season they won)
3. The team had a winning record the previous season
4. During the regular season, the team had at least two wins vs. the Top 25
5. The team cannot be the only representative from their conference in the tournament

There are more, but these are the ones I could remember off the top of my head. So the backroom guys applied this criteria to all the teams in this year's tournament and it eliminated all but two teams: North Carolina and Louisville. Interestingly, I've seen a couple of brackets that have these two playing against each other for the title. But if I were a betting man, I would certainly lean on one of these two teams winning it all.

Kings

So Mrs. X and I watched the pilot episode of Kings last night. It actually aired on Sunday but we recorded it and watched it last night. It wasn’t bad. It wasn’t great either. It’s a bit slow, but I think that’s because of set up and character establishment and I have hopes that it will pick up in later episodes. It also is not subtle in the least. In addition to using all the standard TV clichés, the writers go over the top in trying to make sure the ordinary person gets their references.

For those of you who haven’t seen it or even the previews for it, Kings is a modern retelling of the second half of the book of 1 Samuel, telling the story of David’s rise from a humble shepherd to king of Israel. Of course, the show doesn’t go so far in calling it Israel, but they do everything but. Below is a list of the various references that I caught in my watching:

King Saul – The king in the show is called Silas Benjamin. Silas is not the same as Saul, but it looks similar. However, Saul was of the tribe of Benjamin, hence the use of the last name Benjamin.

Shiloh – At the beginning of the episode, Silas is shown dedicating the new capital of Shiloh, which had been built up from a ruined city during the previous wars. Shiloh was actually the town where the Ark of the Covenant was kept prior to David’s successful capture of Jerusalem. Saul actually kept court at his home in Gibeah with Mizpah and Gilgal being the sites of great assembly for the Israelites.

Gilboa – This is the name of the Israelite country in the show. In actuality, it was a mountain in northern Israel, overlooking the Jezreel Valley, where Israel was defeated in battle by the Philistines. During the battle, three of Saul’s sons were killed and Saul himself was severely wounded. Saul was overtaken by the Philistines and fell on his sword rather than be killed in battle.

Gath – In the show, Gath is the neighboring country that Gilboa is fighting. Gath was one of the five Philistine city-states that fought Israel in alliance. It was also the hometown of Goliath.

Goliath – Goliath was the giant whom David kills with a single stone from his slingshot. In the show, it is a class of tank that looks a lot like the Abrams variety in the US Army. This is actually one part of the show that disappointed me. First, it downgraded David’s triumph as Goliath was a singular champion for the Philistines in the Bible. Turning him into just one of many tanks takes away any specialness of the victory. Second, it seems rather absurd that a country as seemingly advanced as Gilboa is shown to be would not have any armor of their own and would be facing a tank battalion with only infantry. Any country that has an army of any consequence has some armor to put into the field, outclassed as it may be.

David – In the show, David is given the name of David Shepherd and is shown to live on a farm with an aptitude for fixing things. David’s father was Jesse, but in the show, they switched this around a bit by having David’s father be killed in a previous war and making his mother’s name Jessie. He is shown being an adept piano player rather than a harp player as in the Bible. At the beginning of the show, David is shown fixing the car of the Reverend Samuels, who then anoints David in a very subtle way.

Samuel – Samuel was the priest who led Israel prior to Saul becoming king. He anointed Saul and later David as kings of Israel. Saul’s great undoing was to summon Samuel’s spirit from the dead by using the power of the witch of Endor. Samuel then proclaimed that Saul would die in the upcoming battle. In the show, Samuel is shown as a late-forties black man, growing increasingly opposed to the king’s choices. He eventually rejects Silas as king, though he has yet shown that David will succeed Silas as king.

Michal – Michal was the second daughter of Saul. She was given to David in marriage as a reward for slaying Goliath and later helps him escape Saul’s plan to kill David. In the show, her name is given as Michelle and she is shown as the only daughter of Silas. She is not given as a reward per say, though David is rewarded by being allowed to dance with her during the banquet held in his honor. David and Michelle are shown to develop something of a romance later in the episode.

Abner – Abner is shown as the head military commander and (it seems) head of the secret service (including assassinations). In the Bible, Abner was Saul’s principle commander and supported his one surviving son (Ish-Bosheth) against David for king until Ish-Bosheth insulted Abner. Abner defected to David but was murdered by David’s commander Joab.

Probably the two biggest deviations in the show from the Bible are Silas’ son Jack and the elevation of the Queen and her family. Saul had four sons and his eldest, Jonathan, was David’s closest friend, even thwarting his father to protect David’s life. In the show, Silas is only given one (legitimate) son and he is shown to be a drunken playboy, despised by his father because of his homosexual tendencies.

The use of the Queen and her brother are the other interesting twist. In the Bible, Saul is anointed by God and that is enough. In the show, Silas divorced his wife and married the sister of the wealthiest man in the country. This family of bankers provides the gold necessary to keep economic stability which allows Silas to sieze the monarchy. Essentially, they give a twist on the conspiracy theory of the cabal of global bankers who manipulate the global economy to ensure that modern leaders do as they please. The pilot episode ended with the brother-in-law withdrawing gold from the treasury and then offering the kingdom to Silas’ son Jack (his nephew).

I look forward to seeing how they do things in the remaining episodes. NBC went out on a limb and seems to have committed to a full 13-episode season. Initial ratings were low enough that I expect that the show will not be renewed for a second season. I suspect that they will burn through the rest of Silas’ kingship and the show will end with David being proclaimed king while Jack is proclaimed king-in-exile and civil war looming between the two sides. If a second season were to ever emerge, it would probably cover the civil war and David’s conquests to stabilize the region. I would be curious to see how they would treat the conquest of Jerusalem or if that would be a part left on the cutting room floor. Given that there probably won’t be a second season, that’s a moot point anyway.

The Game of Kings

Chess is not a noble sport. When you play chess, your object is to crush the opponent's mind. In today's world, a man's mind is his most precious commodity. Proving to your opponent that his most precious commodity is useless can be devastating for him.

-Unknown

The Legal Implications of Marriage

California Attorney General Jerry Brown is submitting a referendum to eliminate the state government's recognition of marriage and reclassify unions as "domestic-partner contracts."

Essentially, this is a way to try and get around the nastiness that has been brought up by Prop 8. From a Libertarian stand point (and to a degree from a small government standpoint) I can appreciate the merits of this idea. I wonder however what this will mean in terms of other laws usually tied to marriage (domestic violence, child support, alimony, community property, etc.)? Will all these laws have to be re-written and will the state of California still have to issue licences codifying the domestic partner contract (giving the anti-homosexual marriage side another point of attack)?

One of the main reasons the DOMA was opposed a little heavier in Ohio rather than other places was because it opened loopholes for domestic violence perpetrators to avoid being charged with the more severe options if they committed their abuse on a partner outside the traditional marriage construct. I am curious as to what kind of loopholes and other problems would be created by California actually enacting this referendum.

Of course it may not pass, but it does give one a forum to conduct a legal analysis of the various pros and cons of the possibility. I look forward to Mrs. X's take on the potential ramifications (at least if this were attempted in Ohio).

Irony

One of the largest rallies against Global Warming (yes Warming and not Climate Change) was planned for today in Washington DC. At the moment, the city is under heavy snowfall and could see upwards of 6 inches of snow.

You can't tell me that God doesn't have a sense of humor.

God is Watching

The Helix Nebula (nicknamed "The Eye of God") located in the constellation Aquarius.

Important Information

Red meat is not bad for you.

Fuzzy green meat is bad for you.

Mmmmm... Pork

Sooey, Sooey, Soooooey... Here pig, pig, pig.

(Come to Uncle Bucky)

The Coming Refund Adjustment

Ahhh, nice to know why prices of consumable goods and gas will be jacked through the roof in 2011.

The Dark Knight of Oscars

Mrs. X and I sort of watched the Oscars last night. I say sort of, because we turned it off about halfway through and the first half, she was working on stuff on the computer and I was working on the taxes, so it was more background noise at many points.

Still, we did see some of the more interesting points. Honestly, we were really only interested in seeing if Heath Ledger would win for the Joker. I seem to be a real late comer to this party and I still stand by my original statement that as good as his performance was, I don’t think he would have actually won the award had he not died. Nothing against the performance but it has more to do with the Academy’s view of the superhero genre: these types of movies are allowed to win technical awards, but to treat them on the same level as the arthouse fare that generally wins would be beneath one’s dignity. Now, I must say that I haven’t seen any of the other performances, but my gut tells me that if Ledger had not died, the award may well have gone to Josh Brolin given how his performance in Milk was talked up at various points. But that is just my opinion.

Now, while I’m on the subject, I actually watched The Dark Knight for the first time on Friday. It was okay but in my opinion it was not the tour-de-force that many people seemed to make it out to be. It had great promise to start out. Unlike your traditional comic book movie, DK seemed to be trying to get back to its detective roots and not just make Batman some guy who beats up other people with neat gadgets for two hours. Even the introduction of the Joker with no worries about his backstory but just as a new player on the scene felt more authentic.

However, the movie tried to do too much. The introduction of Two-Face didn’t help and detracted from the confrontation with the Joker at the end of the movie. In fact, trying to maintain Harvey Dent’s profile and push the love triangle made the rest of the movie feel rushed. There should have been a lot less of this aspect and more savoring of reign of terror unleashed by the Joker. In many ways, this movie would have been well served to have been expanded into an HBO type miniseries. This format would have given a lot more time to appreciate some of the nuances of the overarching story.

There was only one other little aspect of the movie that I didn’t like and that was the whole “man is a noble creature” aspect that came up when the two ferries refused to blow each other up. I have a hard time believing that in the face of terror and death not a single person would give in and panic. Usually it only takes one person to start a panic and in that panic, someone would have detonated the bomb on the other boat. Perhaps I’m just overly cynical, but I’m still more inclined toward Tommy Lee Jones’ Agent K outlook that while a single person may be intelligent and well-grounded, people as a whole are panicky, fearful, and irrational. It’s one of the reasons that the ship sinking scenes in Titanic are so believable: it shows how people will act in a true crisis. But that is a small nitpick in an otherwise acceptable movie.

Getting back to the Oscars, I believe Mrs. X has already put Slumdog Millionaire on our Netflix queue. It seems like it is a good movie and it would be the first Best Picture winner that I’m interested in seeing since Return of the King. I don’t know if she plans on putting any of the other nominees on the queue. I don’t really have an opinion of the rest and I’m not going to put any effort into seeing them, but I’m not going to say that I won’t watch them.

And at least, most of the political rhetoric was limited to Sean Penn and I had long since gone to bed by that point. Score one for me.

Danger in the Air

Mr. Obama gave a speech on his mortgage plan at an advanced placement high school in Arizona yesterday.

One student watched the speech from his classroom on TV and said that he didn't agree with the way Mr. Obama was going about this. He also wore a T-shirt with Mr. Obama's picture on it with the phrase "Hitler gave good speeches too."

The crowd is starting to get a little testy.

Work Intellegence

I keep a Bible at my desk to remind me a few things about work now and again:

Even a fool is thought wise if he keeps silent, and discerning if he holds his tongue.

A fool finds no pleasure in understanding but delights in airing his own 0pinions.

Proverbs 17:28, 18:2

Fuzzy Molech

Pioneers of Tomorrow gained fame with their theft of Mickey Mouse to create Farfour the Mouse. Typically, Farfour created more stir because of the theft of intellectual property rather than the death and hate that he spewed. Hamas turned this into an opportunity by having Farfour killed by Jewish settlers.

He was then replaced by Nahoul the Bee. Nahoul died due to the Jewish "blockade" denying him medicines. Then came Assud the Rabbit who actually spoke of eating Jewish flesh. Assud was killed during Operation: Cast Lead.

The latest iteration of the Hamas cute character of death is Nassur the Bear. Feel the hate.

A Long Way from Schindler

I was reading an article and in the comments someone posted some interesting comments regarding The Reader. This comes up as both the movie and Kate Winslet have been nominated for Oscars, with Winslet being favored to win Best Actress.

The plot involves the main character having to deal with his feelings upon finding out that a woman (Winslet) who cared for him as a teenager (and with whom he had a sexual relationship) did a lot of terrible things while working for the Nazis. That in itself isn't bad and makes for good drama. However, the commenter pointed out that Winslet's character is portrayed in a very sympathetic light and he felt that the director was working hard to make you feel sorry for her in the fact that she can't read, which drives a portion of the story.

What irritated him though was the fact that this character was treated in this light and the fact that she is technically a pedophile and that while working for the Nazi's she sent hundreds of people to be gassed is rather glossed over. To give it a contrast, in Schindler's List Amon Göth is never given a sympathetic moment. He is given a moment to repent of his crimes (though he declines it), but even with that we are never put in to a position where we it is suggested that we feel sorry that he is an alcoholic psychopath.

I would like to believe that Hollywood would never get to the point where they put out a movie suggesting that the Jews deserved what happened to them. However, as the survivors and perpetrators of the Holocaust die off, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot more of this nuanced storytelling where characters previously portrayed as evil are given a more sympathetic light.

Israeli Follow-up

With 99% of the vote counted, Kadima has about a 30,000 vote lead, which equates to a one-seat victory over Likud (28-27). However, the soldier vote has not been counted yet so that could narrow Kadima's lead to the point that Likud could pull into a tie.

Either way, it's pretty much certain that the right-wing parties beat out the left-wing parties by about 10 seats. This means that even though Kadima might have the largest single bloc, a majority of the Knesset will recommend to Shimon Peres (President of the Knesset) that Likud be given the first opportunity to form the government. Likud will probably not be able to do that unless it pulls in at least one left party and Kadima would be the most logical choice. However, if Likud can get Shas (11) and Israel, Our Home (14) to play ball, they could pull Labor (13) into the government to make up the difference.

There will be some gymnastics yet to come.

Election Day

- in Israel.

At the time of this post, it's about 7 PM. Israeli polls close at 10 PM, although they may stay open a little later due to some severe storms that have rolled through during the day. Overall turnout is estimated to be around 70-75%.

Word has it that Likud and Kadima are running neck and neck with several of the smaller right-wing partys picking up seats, especially at the expense of the Arab parties. I'll try and update again when I can see some exit polling data (should be around 3 PM EST).

UPDATE:

Exit polls indicate that Kadima leads Likud by 2 seats, but that right-wing parties in general beat the left 65-55. Full results will probably not be available until the wee hours, Israel time. Early talk is about a possible National Unity government. We'll see when we have full results tomorrow.

Presidential Trivia

I know it's way too early to discuss Mr. Obama's reelection, but I saw a very interesting bit of trivia as it relates to his potential situation.

In the 220 years of the presidency, only once have we had three two-term presidents serve in a row: Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe. So if Mr. Obama wins reelection in 2012, he can set another bit of history.

Paging Mr. Gore

It would appear that I will be shovelling more Global Warming off the driveway in the near future. Not only did Phil (and Chuck) see their shadows, but volcanoes in Alaska and Japan are currently expelling ash and sulphur-dioxide into the air. This will further screen out heat from the sun and drop us down a degree or two over the next few months.

Gonna be cold for a bit yet.

Meh

I’ve seen a couple of reviews trying to describe this as the best Super Bowl ever. In that, they are woefully mistaken. The 100-yard touchdown return was interesting, mostly for the incompetence that the Cardinals showed in their ability to knock Harrison even out of bounds and going to the locker room down 10-7. But the rest of the game stank until the fourth quarter. Usually there is some ebb and flow in a good game. This game was all one-sided with no rhythm until the tail end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. Then it got good.

I don’t like the Steelers and I can’t say that I’m happy that they won, but unlike three years ago, there is no question that they won this game straight up. I still don’t think they should have won Super Bowl XL but that’s the past. In this one, they legitimately earned everything and there were no phantom penalties on the last drive to aid them. The only penalty that I saw that I disagreed with was the roughing the passer penalty that was called mid-way through the third quarter on Arizona. Even then, some might argue that the defender shouldn’t have shoved Roethlesburger with a blow in the back like he did. It’s quarterbacks in dresses to me, but we’ve seen it before at least. But the Steelers won this one fair and square.

Now to the ads. I think I’ve mentioned every year how the ads don’t live up to expectations and seem to get worse every year. This year seemed particularly bad. The highest rated ads as I heard them coming in were the two Doritos ads, two of the Budweiser Clydesdales ads (lovers and stick retrieval), and something else, perhaps one of the talking baby ads. Of all of these, only the Doritos crystal ball ad was any good and even that only because of the hitting the boss in the stomach at the end. Budweiser shot complete blanks this year in my opinion.

Mrs. X liked the Bob Dylan Pepsi ad, but she has a great affinity for the song they used. I don’t and thought the ad was a little dry. It was better than a lot of the other ads, but I can’t say that it was particularly entertaining for me either. For me personally, the only two ads that I liked were the Potato Head Bridgestone ad and the Career Builder ad, though I would qualify that the Career Builder ad went on a little long, losing a little power of the joke.

So it was thoroughly Meh Super Bowl, made even more meh by the fact that Toddler X chose this night to throw a total temper tantrum by refusing to put her toys away and then getting even madder when we meted out punishment in the form of no bedtime story or songs. We did get her calmed down eventually and she went to sleep almost instantly, but it made for an unhappy bedtime. Hopefully tonight will be a little better.

Travels with Desmond

Want something to make your head hurt? Try this:

Mrs. X and I have been big fans of Lost since the beginning. At the moment, the storyline is engrossed in a big time travel arc. The particular theory of time travel that the producers seem to have embraced is one that this sometimes called the Flowing Forward model. In this theory, time is completely set and if a person travels to the past, they cannot change anything because the point at which they came from has already been influenced by their decision to go into the past.

As an example, let’s say tomorrow I gained the power to travel into the past and decide to try and stop the murder of Abraham Lincoln. No matter what I did, I would be unable to stop the murder because even though I haven’t travelled back yet, all the actions I have taken already exist in the past. Time has recorded my future decision to travel back and the past is set with the actions I have performed, even though it’s my future self doing those things.

On Lost, this is shown and done well, although the matter of Desmond needs some additional explaining. Unlike the rest of the Losties, Desmond has not bodily travelled in time, only his consciousness. In his first trip back, Desmond tried to change things in the past, but he was thwarted by universal correction and instructed in this by a character known as Ms. Hawking. In his second trip, Desmond’s mind goes back to 1996 where he meets Daniel Faraday and get’s some help in managing his shifting consciousness.

A question that has popped up among viewers is that given that the past is set, why doesn’t Desmond recognize Faraday either when he comes out of the Swan station or when he comes to the helicopter for the first time if he had lengthy conversations with him in 1996? I’ll warn you that this is where your brain will hurt.

Even though Desmond did all these things in the 1990’s, they were overseen by his 2004 consciousness. Effectively his 1990’s mind was turned off during these periods, and his 2004 mind was running his 1990’s body. We know these events actually happened in the past and that Desmond is not changing anything because Faraday remembers all of this and has written it down. He knows how to react in every situation and can give Desmond proper instructions and uses Desmond’s information to help his own research.

Now, Desmond’s 1990’s mind cannot process the invasion of his future mind. Some of these periods might simply remain as blanks in his memory, but, and especially in the first instance of time travel, Desmond’s mind crafted events in a way that did not involve his future consciousness. For example, when Desmond goes to buy an engagement ring for Penny, rather than process the fact that Mrs. Hawking tells him that he doesn’t buy it and ends up going to the island, Desmond’s 1990’s mind justifies things by accepting the suggestion that he simply chickens out. Essentially, Desmond is creating a false memory to preserve his sanity. He is not changing the past when his 2004 mind intrudes, he is simply breaking the false memory his 1990’s mind created to protect itself. Does your head hurt yet?

The violent nature of Desmond’s swings in his second time travel trip would suggest that the entire trip to Oxford and his conversation with Penny would not have been recorded at all. Unlike the first trip, which was a gentle overriding of several days of memory, Desmond’s consciousness was ripped back and forth. To preserve itself, Desmond’s 1996 mind completely shut down and could not even record passively. This is demonstrated in the fact that when Desmond’s mind went back to his 2004 self, his 1996 body simply turned off and he passed out. Think of it like The Matrix when several people died because their minds were disconnected from their bodies by being left in the matrix. Desmond doesn’t die because a channel is still open, but the stress of the jumps would have eventually destroyed his 2004 body unless he could anchor himself (hence the need for a constant). Once the jumps were over, Desmond’s 1996 mind would have uncocooned itself and his entire leave would have just been a blank spot. This could have been justified by assuming that he had been drinking heavily or done something else to wipe himself out, again creating a false memory to justify the blank spot.

So, in a nutshell, Desmond is not changing the past. The past is what it is. The only thing Desmond is changing is his own false assumptions about what happened in the past. I think that is enough brain stress for one day.

This Isn't Funny

There are many ways to point out the reality of something being very funny for just it's shear stupidity or over the topness. This situation is not funny no matter how you try to poke at it:

DEAR GOD!

I hope and pray that this is a photoshop; because if it is real, it's way too messed up for me:

Wisdom

"There is no indispensable man in a democracy. When a republic comes to a point where a man is indispensable, then we have a Caesar. I do not believe that the fate of the nation should depend upon the life or health or welfare of any one man."

-- Harry S Truman

Super Bowl Set

Well, I was half right; although I think I gave the Arizona Cardinals a better chance than some people. It seemed that many people were picking Philadelphia but they were leaving themselves an opening that Arizona might win. Good thing too. I didn’t really watch the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game as I don’t care for either team, but I did enjoy the Arizona-Philly game. I was hoping that Arizona would win as I have a soft spot for Kurt Warner and I just like rooting for the underdog. It was a good game and the final Arizona drive was quite impressive. Reasonable minds can differ on whether a penalty should have been called on that 4th down pass for the Eagles. I didn’t see anything that seemed that brazen, but I also prefer a slightly rougher form of football.

Vegas has opened the line for Pittsburgh by 7. I’m not at all surprised for several reasons. First, defense always win championships. Arizona’s defense has stepped up and that has been key to their getting to the Super Bowl. But Pittsburgh has the best defense in the entire NFL this year and that will likely trump Arizona’s high powered offense.

Second, taken as a whole, the AFC has been considered the tougher conference for the past few years and the Giant’s rise to the top of the league during the regular season did nothing to counteract this feeling. Arizona in particular is probably viewed as soft in relation to the battle tested Steelers.

Third, the Steelers just had a better record (12-4) and against better teams. Arizona finished 9-7 but six of those wins came against the rest of their division (San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis) who were a combined 13-35. With a two week layoff, people just expect Arizona to return to earth a bit and we’ll see the regular season versions of these teams, of which Pittsburgh was much better.

Mr. A informed us three years ago that the dish of Pittsburgh would be perogies. I'm not quite sure what the dish for Arizona would be. Something spicy and Mexican oriented I guess.

Hopefully, it’ll be a good game, but I’m not optimistic. I’m also unsure about the ads since the commercials have really stunk for the past few years. It very much seems like the ad agencies aren’t even trying or are just going for the cheap laugh. We’ll see I guess.

Squee Up BOY!

Payback's a bitch:

Two captured terrorists interviewed by Maariv/NRG say that Hamas was not expecting Israel's response to the escalation in missile attacks on Israeli targets that preceded Operation Cast Lead. One of them, a 52-year-old victim of a premature detonation who had already done time in an Israeli jail, said, "Hamas took a gamble. We thought, at worst Israel will come and do something from the air - something superficial. They'll come in and go out. We never thought that we would reach the point where fear will swallow the heart and the feet will want to flee. You [Israel] are fighting like you fought in '48. What got into you all of a sudden?"

Three Birds and a Hammer

Well, to say that I was wrong when it came to the football games would be something of an understatement. That Baltimore and Philadelphia won is not a huge shock, although it went against my picks, but Arizona winning was little short of amazing. Arizona was 9-7, having never won in the Eastern Time Zone this season (0-5). Carolina was the only team who was perfect at home. Arizona was missing one of their star receivers while having to go up against a two fisted running attack.

Yet the Cardinals won. One of the commentators mentioned that the Cardinals must have seen something on film when it came to Carolina’s passing game because they were stepping in front of receivers and jumping routes all over the place. Hat’s off to them for confounding the experts.

So we now have Baltimore at Pittsburgh in the AFC and Philadelphia at Arizona in the NFC. On the AFC side, this will be the third time the Steelers and Ravens have clashed this season. It’s hard to win three times in one season, but I still don’t trust Baltimore’s offense enough to suggest that they are going to put up enough points. Baltimore’s defense is good but Pittsburgh will find ways to drive the field for some points. Plus, Pittsburgh’s defense is good enough to score a few points off the Baltimore offense. I would expect Pittsburgh to win a close game, probably decided by a field goal or a pick-6.

I’d like to pick Arizona in the NFC championship game just to be different and because I remember Kurt Warner from the old St. Louis days. However, there is something about the way Philadelphia is playing that gives me pause. Arizona has been good at stopping the run and then running the ball themselves. If Arizona gets pass happy, Philadelphia will win in a walk as the Eagles defense will beat Warner senseless. But if the Cardinals can just pound the ball and only have a deep pass now and again to keep the Eagles from putting eight men in the box, they might be able to win. Arizona must neutralize Brian Westbrook to have any chance and that will force McNabb to throw a lot, giving the Cardinals chances to jump the routes just as they did with Carolina.

If Pittsburgh meets Philadelphia, we would have an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl and a pretty dirty trench fight as well.

An Arizona-Pittsburgh Super Bowl would be a Steelers reunion since the head coach of the Cardinals was the offensive coordinator for the Steelers for quite a long time.

I’m sure I could come up with other ties in case Baltimore wins the AFC, but given my opinion that I think that Pittsburgh will win, I’ll just wait and do the connection if Baltimore gets to the Super Bowl.

A Quick Guide

Reading or hearing about the rocket attacks that Hamas is making and the Israeli response is a little hard to get a handle on without a firm definition of where everything is. So here is a map of some of the locations that seem to be primary targets of rocket fire.

I've also circled Beit Shemesh although they've gotten significantly less fire than the rest as Hamas' current rockets only have enough range to hit the outer reaches of the town. Most fired there have fallen a bit short. However, rumors are circulating that Iran is trying to smuggle rockets into Gaza that would have the range to hit downtown Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Perspective

Point of consideration:

The Current Conflict

While surfing around today, I found two bits that best describe Israel's fight with Hamas.

First the quote: If the Palestinians laid down their weapons, there would be no war. If Israel laid down their weapons, there would be no Israel.

Second, the picture:

Playoffs

Christmas was fun and I thoroughly enjoyed my time off of work with the exception of the ruined kitchen floor. But that is why one has insurance.

Anyway, we can now focus more on the last vestiges of the football season. I have to admit, I was a little surprised that Arizona beat Atlanta. Having watched a couple of Arizona games, I would have thought that Atlanta’s running game would have eventually crushed them. But instead, it was Atlanta that failed to recover and Arizona’s defense finally showed up after taking the last few games off.

I was not surprised that San Diego beat Indianapolis although I was hoping that Indy would win. For whatever reason, Indy simply cannot win in San Diego, especially when the Chargers are on a roll that was needed even to make the playoffs.

I was not surprised in the least that Baltimore whipped up on Miami. They are still trying to remember how to win and going against the nasty Baltimore defense was just too much for the Fish.

I thought Minnesota might put up a slightly better fight, but it took no one by surprise that the Eagles beat the Vikings. They have a good defense and a great running game, but the Minnesota O-line and the quarterback were simply not seasoned enough to contain the Philadelphia blitzing packages and I think everyone knew that.

So on to next weekend’s games. If Roethlesburger had not suffered the concussion in the game against Cleveland, I’d say that the Steelers should shred San Diego. They still might, but a wounded quarterback will make a tasty target for the Charger defense. Still, I would expect the Steelers defense to beat up on Philip Rivers pretty hard and the Steelers running game will wear down San Diego.

The Baltimore-Tennessee game should be very interesting. Tennessee’s defense is good enough to hold Baltimore’s mediocre offense in check while Baltimore’s defense should get after Kerry Collins and contain the Tennessee running game. This game will probably come down to one or two little plays and may be decided by a field goal.

I’m sure New York wanted Arizona very badly rather than division rival Philadelphia. They know their opponent and New York is better than Philadelphia, but division rivals have a habit of pulling the unlikely upsets. I would expect New York to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Philadelphia prevailed.

Carolina-Arizona will probably be a laugher. Arizona’s defense was pretty good against Atlanta, but I can’t see them being able to contain Steve Smith. Once Carolina jumps out to a lead, Arizona will likely abandon the running game and it will be tee-off time against Kurt Warner. Carolina should have very little to worry about in terms of getting to the NFC title game.

Dumbledore's Incompetence

I know it’s not exactly Christmas-y but this is what I had on my mind.

Mrs. X, while waiting for any of her three books on the library wait list, has been rereading some of the Harry Potter books. That brought back memories of the post I wrote regarding the trap that Dumbledore set for Voldemort in the first book and also got me thinking about something that doesn’t really make sense with regard to the second book.

One could forgive Dumbledore for not knowing much about the Chamber of Secrets before Tom Riddle opened it, but after Myrtle was killed, Dumbledore should have made it one of his top priorities to deal with the Chamber. He obviously did some of that in keeping a close eye on Riddle for the remainder of his term at Hogwarts, preventing Riddle from summoning the basilisk. Perhaps Professor Dippet restricted Dumbledore from searching out of fear that the monster could not be killed. However, this restriction would have been removed when Dumbledore became headmaster.

The thing that doesn’t make sense to me is how Dumbledore could have been so unprepared for the re-opening of the Chamber of Secrets. Although he didn’t have Riddle’s memory that had been placed in the diary, Dumbledore clearly had enough information to determine both the nature of the monster and the likely location of the Chamber of Secrets.

It is suggested in the book that there had been one or two other attacks before Myrtle was killed. If any of these attacks looked like the attacks that took place 50 years later, one would have noticed water around and spiders fleeing mad dash from the scene. What’s more, it is also likely that Riddle would have made sure that any roosters on campus would have been killed, just as before.

If that wasn’t enough for Dumbledore to figure it out (and it was for Hermione), he had the advantage of two witnesses. Myrtle left Hogwarts to continue her haunting of Olive Hornby until she was restricted by the Ministry. One might assume that she was checked out before being permitted to take residence back up at Hogwarts and that Dumbledore might have even remembered that she was the girl who had been killed by the monster. Myrtle was more than happy to describe the way she died to Harry and one could imagine that if the Headmaster came in and asked her for her story, she would have told him eagerly. Dumbledore could also have asked Hagrid what Aragog remembered of the incident since he would have been sensitive to it. All three of these factors would have given Dumbledore the information he needed on both the nature of the monster and the likely location of the entrance, since Myrtle’s story mentioned Tom summoning the snake.

Even if Dumbledore could not open the Chamber of Secrets and destroy the monster due to his lack of knowledge of Parsletongue (and this didn’t stop Ron from managing to open the Chamber in Deathly Hallows), Dumbledore could still have taken care of things in a very quick and simple manner. Upon the discovery of Mrs. Norris, Dumbledore correctly surmised that the Chamber of Secrets had been reopened. Now, if he had done what a responsible headmaster should have done, he could have set up a simple detector within the bathroom. If that detector was tripped by either use of a certain type of magic or the use of Parsletongue, an alarm could have been sounded throughout the castle. What’s more, that alarm could have been done in the form of a rooster crowing. This would have killed the basilisk before it even had time to fully emerge from the Chamber.

Granted this likely would have allowed Ginny to escape and remain possessed by Voldemort, but Dumbledore had no way of knowing that was how the Chamber was being opened and it would have immediately dealt with the danger being posed to the student population. Of course, Dumbledore could have added to his alarm system to ensure that the perpetrator was caught. Upon triggering the alarm, the door could have been sealed to allow no access except for that of the headmaster. As apparition is impossible within Hogwarts, the culprit would have to either stay within the bathroom or run into the chamber where they would presumably be cornered. Dumbledore could also have told Myrtle of this plan and asked her to come and look around the bathroom when the alarm had been triggered and see if she could describe the culprit in case they did manage to find a way to escape the trap.

This would have made for a rather boring story, but it would have been much more in line with what a truly competent strategist and wise headmaster would have done. The basilisk would have been killed by the alarm and Ginny caught when she tried to release it while Harry was in the hospital wing in the attack that petrified Colin Creevey. After a short examination, I’m sure Ginny would have recovered and given the diary to Dumbledore, who would have examined it. Likely, Dumbledore would not have destroyed it until he was sure what it was but it would have at least posed no further danger to anyone. Harry then could have finished his second year like every other student in peace.

As an aside, I’m sure Voldemort’s curse would have found someway for Lockhart to be removed by the end of the term. Perhaps a revolt among the staff if he were not sacked?

Why Things Are They Way They Are

An important lesson in how history influences everything:

The US standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is 4 feet, 8.5 inches. That's an exceedingly odd number. Why was that gauge used?

Because that's the way they built them in England, and English expatriates built the US railroads. Why did the English build them like that?

Because the first rail lines were built by the same people who built the pre-railroad tramways, and that's the gauge they used. Why did these people use that gauge then?

Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and tools that they used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing. Why did the wagons have that particular odd wheel spacing?

Well, if they tried to use any other spacing, the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads in England, because that's the spacing of the wheel ruts. So who built those old rutted roads?

Imperial Rome built the first long distance roads in Europe (and England ) for their legions. The roads have been used ever since. And the ruts in the roads? Roman war chariots formed the initial ruts, which everyone else had to match for fear of destroying their wagon wheels. Since the chariots were made for Imperial Rome, they were all alike in the matter of wheel spacing.

Therefore the United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5 inches is derived from the original specifications for an Imperial Roman war chariot. Bureaucracies live forever. So the next time you are handed a Specification, Procedure or Process and wonder "What horse's ass came up with it?" you may be exactly right. Imperial Roman army chariots were made just wide enough to accommodate the rear ends of two war horses. (Two horses' asses.)

Now, the twist to the story:

When you see a Space Shuttle sitting on its launch pad, there are two big booster rockets attached to the sides of the main fuel tank. These are solid rocket boosters, or SRB's. The SRB's are made by Thiokol at their factory in Utah. The engineers who designed the SRB's would have preferred to make them a bit fatter, but the SRB's had to be shipped by train from the factory to the launch site. The railroad line from the factory happens to run through a tunnel in the mountains, and the SRB's had to fit through that tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than the railroad track, and the railroad track, as you now know, is about as wide as two horses' behinds.

So, a major Space Shuttle design feature of what is arguably the world's most advanced transportation system was determined over two thousand years ago by the width of a horse's ass.

Thus we can safely say that ancient horse's asses control almost everything... and CURRENT horses asses control everything else.

Week 17

In contrast to previous years, Week 17 still matters to a large degree in regard to some fairly prominent seeds.

Things are little more set on the AFC side. Tennessee has clinched the #1 seed and Pittsburgh has clinched the #2 seed. Indianapolis is definitely in and I think that because of the way the tiebreakers work, they are assured of the #5 seed win or lose this Sunday. That leaves the #3, #4, and #6 seeds. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner and the #4 seed will go to the AFC West winner but who those will be is the question.

The winner of the San Diego-Denver game will win the division and the #4 seed. The loser stays home during the playoffs. Currently Miami and New England are tied for the AFC East lead with Miami holding the tiebreaker. The NY Jets are a game out. New England plays Buffalo this weekend and I think it is likely that they will win that game. The Jets and Miami play each other. If Miami wins, they will win the division through tiebreaker. If the Jets win, they would need New England to lose to Buffalo to win the division. If the Jets win and New England wins, New England wins the division outright.

The #6 seed is currently held by Baltimore who close out the season at home against Jacksonville. As long as they win, they will get in as the #6 seed. If they lose, they could lose out to New England if Miami wins the division. I think Baltimore would win a tiebreaker against the Jets. That would mean that the most likely scenario has Indianapolis travelling West to Denver or San Diego while Baltimore would go to either Miami or New England.

On the NFC side, things are still a little more in play. The Giants have clinched the #1 seed and the #2 seed will go to the NFC South winner (likely Carolina). However, there is a slim chance that if Carolina loses to New Orleans and Atlanta wins against St. Louis, Atlanta might win the division. I’m not 100% sure that Carolina has locked up all the tiebreakers. But I would expect Carolina to beat New Orleans and take the #2 seed.

Minnesota and Chicago are dueling it out for the NFC North crown and the likely #3 seed. Arizona has already won the NFC West and currently sits in the #4 spot. If Minnesota wins against the Giants on Sunday, they win the division and the #3 seed. If they lose and Chicago beats Houston, Chicago wins the North, although I think Arizona could pull up to a #3 seed with a win against Seattle if Chicago takes the North.

Atlanta is in the playoffs and still has the outside chance at the division crown, but they are likely going to be the #5 seed and likely looking at a trip to Arizona. Dallas is in the driver’s seat for the #6 seed. If they beat Philadelphia, they are in. If they lose, the door opens for Tampa Bay who will be playing Oakland. If both Dallas and Tampa Bay lose, the spot goes to Chicago, assuming Chicago beats Houston and Minnesota wins the division. If Dallas, Tampa Bay and Chicago all lose, the spot goes to Philadelphia. Theoretically, if Atlanta lost and Dallas won, Dallas might move up to the #5 spot, but I’m not sure about the various tiebreakers. Plus, I don’t think it’s likely that Atlanta would lose to St. Louis.

I don’t have a lot of faith in Dallas, so I’m inclined to think that Tampa Bay will win the #6 seed and travel to Minnesota (the Giants will not be playing their starters so Minnesota should win that last game), while Atlanta travels to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.

Christmas Survey

I guess it's my turn now:

1. Wrapping paper or gift bags?
Wrapping paper. It looks bad but I actually make gift bags look worse.
2. Real tree or artificial?
Fake. I like real trees but it's much easier and cheaper this way.
3. When do you put up the tree?
Depends on when Thanksgiving falls. Usually that first weekend in December though.
4. When do you take the tree down?
New Year's day or the day after.
5. Do you like eggnog?
No.
6. Favorite gift received as a child?
I can't think of one specifically. The Fischer-Price Farm was good. I enjoyed my TV production truck (which was not a new blanket for Madame S ;) ). My tape player that I ran into the ground. My first Calvin and Hobbes book.
7. Hardest person to buy for?
My parents and my mom specifically.
8. Do you have a nativity scene?
Yes, from Mrs. X's mom. We need to get a cleared elevated space to put it out though.
9. Mail or email Christmas cards?
Mrs. X mails the Christmas cards.
10. Worst Christmas gift you ever received?
I really can't think of anything that gave me a "what the heck is this?" feeling. I probably had that when I got clothes as a kid but at least they all fit well and looked pretty good on me (even if I didn't appreciate it at the time).
11. Favorite Christmas Movie?
Alistair Sim's 1951 version of A Christmas Carol.
12. When do you start shopping for Christmas?
Dec. 26.
13. Have you ever recycled a Christmas present?
Not that I recall.
14. Favorite thing to eat at Christmas?
Mrs. X's peanut butter bars. Although I'm also fond of chocolate peanut clusters, Oreo truffles (sometimes called reindeer poop), and buckeyes.
15. Lights on the tree?
Yes, multi-colored.
16. Favorite Christmas song?
Silent Night (best done in German) from the traditionals. Christmas, 1913 is a personal favorite of mine.
17. Travel at Christmas or stay home?
Ideally, stay home.
18. Can you name all of Santa's reindeer?
Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donder (not Donner), Blitzen, and Rudolph.
19. Angel on the tree top or a star?
Neither at the moment. We had an angel growing up.
20. Open the presents Christmas Eve or Christmas day?
Christmas Day for the kids and just between us. Eve for larger family gatherings.
21. Most annoying thing about this time of the year?
The traffic when you go to any store or restaurant. Being bludgeoned by materialism.
22. Favorite ornament theme or color?
People who worry about themes for their ornaments should be slapped. Ornaments should be personal and have an individual story.
23. Favorite for Christmas dinner?
Anytime one gets to have turkey is good. But I'm also a fan of ham or large beef presentations.
24. What do you want for Christmas this year?
10 fingers, 10 toes, a strong heart, and good health for Baby X2.0
25. What is your favorite Christmas memory?
I have a few. Christmas 1982 was the first Christmas I really remembered and it seemed like a large one with lots of presents (plus everyone was there). Talking to Madame S through the vents when Mom and Dad brought in presents they had bought and we were banished to our rooms so we wouldn't see what they were. Always decorating the tree, although I really remember and like the first time I did it myself in Connecticut while listening watching the Florida recount fiasco. Toddler X's first Christmas and how she gaped in amazement at all the new toys for her.

Impossible Peace

If you ever wanted proof of the fact that the Arabs who call themselves Palestinians will never accept any deal that will produce anything less than full control over all Israel, I give you this picture:

Notice the logo of the group in the upper right corner. That is the land from the Jordan to the Mediterranean. These people simply will not stop until they drive the Jews into the sea. Unfortunately, this means that Israel's only option is to drive the Arabs out of Judea and Samaria and probably further just to create a buffer zone for themselves. In other words, peace will not be achieved until one side is dead. Such is a sorry state of affairs.

Something Interesting

I saw a passing comment regarding this. Look at the two pictures below:

Look similiar?

The first is the set that Mr. Obama gave his Democratic Nominee acceptance speech at in Denver. The second is the Altar of Zeus that was originally constructed in Pergamos and moved to a museum in Berlin in the late 19th century. One certainly can't fault Mr. Obama for his sense of style.

However, it would probably be a good idea if someone educated Mr. Obama about the history of this Altar as a certain famous 20th century German leader also gave speeches on a platform modeled after this Altar (hint: the capital of North Dakota is not named after him).

Of course, there is also the casual mention of this Altar in Rev. 2:12-13. So, I would suggest to Mr. Obama that he give his speeches from slightly less historically colorful platforms. He has enough problems without inviting unflattering comparisons to certain historical figures.

Christmas with the Muppets

For some reason, the Muppets John Denver Christmas special has never been released on any video format. So here are some clips that someone managed to record off TV back in the day.













As a bonus, here's one from Emmett Otter that is also on the Muppet's album. Robin and Emmett Otter have the same voice.

The Chicago Way

I don't really have anything specific to say regarding the scandal erupting within the Illinois governor's office. It is what it is and quite frankly it just sounds like politics as normal to me, just with a slightly illegal twist.

Some people scattered around the Internet seem to think that this will bring Mr. Obama down in a Nixonian fashion. This is a complete load. Mr. Obama and his staff did nothing wrong. In fact the timeline that has been put forth so far suggests that the Obama staff started distancing themselves away from Mr. Blagojevich as early as a week after the election when things started developing. I've even heard a suggestion that a member of the Obama staff may have tipped off the Justice Department of what was going on to allow them to expand the focus of their probe.

The only thing that is likely to affect Mr. Obama in the near future his past involvement in Chicago politics. Mr. Rezko is singing like a canary and some of his testimony will likely be used both against Mr. Blagojevich and to attack Mr. Obama. I doubt there will ever be anything to be more than a significant distraction to Mr. Obama, but this does have the air of the Paula Jones lawsuit that Mr. Clinton was swatting at when he took office. It never destroyed him, but it ultimately put a handicap on his presidency. We shall see if this ends up hitting Mr. Obama in the same way.

Bowl Anticipation

A mildly surprising 10 for 10 for me in the BCS games based off last week's speculation. Granted, I never took a stand on who would win between Virginia Tech and Boston College and I did have to hold out the caveat that the Sugar Bowl could have taken Virginia Tech, but overall, I think I did quite well. Now, the question is how things will play out and what the quality of the games will be.

Ironically, I suspect that the people who run the BCS are quietly becoming fans of the Big 10. If Texas beats Ohio St. (something I think will happen), Texas will complain no matter what happens in the title game. If Oklahoma wins, Texas will claim that they are worth of co-champion status because they beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. If Florida wins, Texas will use that as proof that they should have been put into the championship game as they had already proven that Oklahoma was an inferior opponent.

The BCS folks would also probably prefer it if Penn St. knocked off USC (also unlikely), just to keep USC from complaining too loudly that they deserved a shot at the title. This is less of a concern since the Pac-10 was just a bad conference this year and since USC’s loss was in-conference, there is little sympathy for them. USC garners about as much support as Penn St. did after their loss to Iowa and that isn’t much.

I think the match-up for the national title is the correct one within the confines of the system we have. Would it be nice to have a playoff so that Texas and USC could fight it out on the field? Sure. But that’s not going to happen this season. Oklahoma was ruled the winner of the Big 12 South by the rules established by the Big 12. They did what they had to do and have been rewarded for it. Starting about the mid-way point of the season, people began to feel that the national title game should be the Big 12 South champ (and presumably the Big 12 champ) vs. the SEC champ. We have that and I think it will be a good game with only a little bit of bitching from the peanut gallery.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas will probably beat down Ohio St. Ohio St. has improved, but I think Texas is a much better team and will pull away throughout the game. Ohio St.’s only real chance is if Texas is so distracted by their anger of not playing for the national title that Ohio St. get’s the jump on them.

Rose Bowl: I like Penn St. but I just don’t see any way that they can beat USC. Penn St. only barely beat Ohio St. and USC beat Ohio St. rather soundly. Plus, USC will have a significant home field advantage playing in the Rose Bowl. I hope Penn St. keeps it close, but I think USC’s athleticism will help them pull away as the game goes on.

Sugar Bowl: Small teams have pulled big upsets in the past. I don’t think this will be one of them. Utah is going to face an Alabama team irritated by “what-ifs” and pushed on by a huge crowd advantage. I suspect that Alabama will run constantly and just bludgeon Utah into submission mid-way through the 3rd quarter.

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati is probably going to be suffering a case of “just happy to be here” when they match up against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech’s coaching staff is experienced and will probably use special teams to pull a few surprises on Cincinnati. Virginia Tech has lost focus at times this season and that gives Cincinnati a fighting chance, but I’m inclined to think that veteran leadership will carry this game.

Title game: I’m torn here. Florida has de-facto home field advantage with the game being played in the Orange Bowl and I think the SEC schedule has toughened them up a bit more. However, I also think that Oklahoma is built like Alabama but with a better passing game and Florida did have some fits with that team. I’m leaning toward Florida at the moment but I would not be at all surprised to see Oklahoma win this game. Either way, I think the game will be closer (and better) than the last two national title games.

Of the lesser bowl games, the ones that might be good games to watch are the Hawaii Bowl (Hawaii vs. Notre Dame), the Alamo Bowl (Missouri vs. Northwestern), the Insight Bowl (Kansas vs. Minnesota), and the International Bowl (Buffalo vs. Connecticut). People might prefer other bowls, but these intrigue me.

Football Thoughts

There has been a lot of bitching about Oklahoma getting to go to the Big 12 Championship and possibly the National Championship over Texas since Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. That may be so, but it would behoove us to remember that this was not a straight tie. It was a three-way tie. Texas lost at Texas Tech and Oklahoma beat the snot out of Texas Tech at home. If Oklahoma had lost to Oklahoma St., Texas Tech would have won the Big 12 South based on the head-to-head tiebreaker, despite the fact that just about everyone thinks that Texas is the better team. So all the Texas folks who are complaining about a lesser team than them getting vaulted ahead of them should shut up. If Texas wanted to be in control of the situation, they should have beaten Texas Tech and not whined like a bunch of crybabies.

(Yes I am channeling my inner Wilbon today).

Anyway, we also have things to look forward to in the NFL. There are four weeks left but I think that barring major injury, the NY Giants (11-1) are the team to beat in the NFC and quite possibly the NFL. There is very little chance that they will not get the #1 seed come playoff time. The #2 will go to the winner of the NFC South. At the moment, Tampa Bay has the tiebreaker against Carolina (both 9-3), but the two play each other again this weekend. The loser of this match is likely to fall to the #5 seed but will still make the playoffs.

Arizona (7-5) will probably wrap up the NFC West this weekend. They are in line for the #3 seed but could fall to the #4 if they aren't careful. Currently the #4 would go to the Minnesota Vikings (7-5), who are starting to take command of the NFC North. The Bears and Packers aren't out of it though and if the Vikings lose two major cogs in their front line due to this diet pill scandel, either team could overtake Minnesota for the division lead.

As I mentioned earlier, I think the #5 seed goes to the NFC South second place team (Carolina currently), which leaves the #6 seed. Dallas (8-4) is in this position now, but they have the Atlanta Falcons (8-4) breathing down their necks and the Washington Redskins (7-5) are also only a game out. Dallas' schedule for the next four weeks is @ Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Baltimore, and @ Philadelphia. It is not inconceivable that Dallas loses all four of those games to finish 8-8. Meanwhile the Falcons have @ New Orleans, Tampa Bay, @ Minnesota, and St. Louis. I think the Falcons will win at least two of those games to finish no worse than 10-6. Washington has @ Baltimore, @ Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and @ San Francisco. I think two are guaranteed wins and the other two are winnable at least. My inclination is that Atlanta wins the #6 seed, but I wouldn't be shocked by Washington. I think Dallas has the hardest road, probably needing to win three of those four games to make the playoffs.

Over in the AFC, Tennessee (11-1) has the #1 seed with Pittsburgh (9-3) nipping at their heels. I think Tennessee holds on to retain the #1 seed and the Steelers will have to settle for #2. Interestingly enough, in Week 16, Tennessee plays at Pittsburgh. It could be a preview of what the AFC Championship game looks like, although the location might be reversed. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner. The NY Jets (8-4) are in the driver's seat, but New England and Miami are lurking (both 7-5). I think New England's remaining schedule is soft enough that they might go 4-0 and finish 11-5. That would put pressure on the Jets to do the same. The first three games should be easy enough but that match-up against Miami in Week 17 could very well have some serious playoff implications. Denver is sitting pretty in the AFC West and should finish with the #4 seed.

It is not inconceivable that Miami, New England, and the Jets could all finish 11-5. That would create a fun little scrum with Indianapolis (8-4) and Baltimore (8-4) also vying for the #5 and #6 seeds. Indianapolis looks as though it has a real shot to go 12-4, depending on whether or not they can take Jacksonville and Tennessee is playing their A-team in the last two weeks of the season. Baltimore probably has the hardest road as they take on Washington, Pittsburgh, @ Dallas, and Jacksonville. But this still gives them a reasonable opportunity to go 12-4 or 11-5. If Baltimore did finish 11-5 and Miami beats the Jets in Week 17, Indianapolis would probably secure the #5 seed and we would be left looking at a lot of tiebreakers to see who would get the #6 between Baltimore, Miami, and the Jets. If the Jets were to win that last game, they win the division and the tiebreaker is between Baltimore and New England.

No matter what happens, I'm currently leaning towards Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee in the AFC Championship and NY Giants vs. someone from the NFC South (can't quite decide yet).

100 Things

I stole this from Mrs. X's blog. Things I have done are in bold.

1. Started your own blog
2. Slept under the stars
3. Played in a band
4. Visited Hawaii
5. Watched a meteor shower
6. Given more than you can afford to charity
7. Been to Disneyland
8. Climbed a mountain (a very small one)
9. Held a praying mantis
10. Sang a solo
11. Bungee jumped (no way in Hell!)
12. Visited Paris
13. Watched a lightning storm at sea
14. Taught yourself an art from scratch
15. Adopted a child
16. Had food poisoning
17. Walked to the top of the Statue of Liberty
18. Grown your own vegetables
19. Seen the Mona Lisa in France
20. Slept on an overnight train
21. Had a pillow fight
22. Hitch hiked
23. Taken a sick day when you’re not ill
24. Built a snow fort
25. Held a lamb
26. Gone skinny dipping
27. Run a Marathon
28. Ridden in a gondola in Venice
29. Seen a total eclipse
30. Watched a sunrise or sunset
31. Hit a home run (came close once)
32. Been on a cruise to the Caribbean
33. Seen Niagara Falls in person
34. Visited the birthplace of your ancestors
35. Seen an Amish community
36. Taught yourself a new language
37. Had enough money to be truly satisfied
38. Seen the Leaning Tower of Pisa in person
39. Gone rock climbing
40. Seen Michelangelo's David
41. Sung karaoke
42. Seen Old Faithful geyser erupt
43. Bought a stranger a meal at a restaurant
44. Visited Africa
45. Walked on a beach by moonlight
46. Been transported in an ambulance
47. Had your portrait painted
48. Gone deep sea fishing
49. Seen the Sistine Chapel in person
50. Been to the top of the Eiffel Tower in Paris
51. Gone scuba diving or snorkeling
52. Kissed in the rain
53. Played in the mud
54. Gone to a drive-in theater
55. Been in a movie
56. Visited the Great Wall of China
57. Started a business
58. Taken a martial arts class
59. Visited Russia
60. Served at a soup kitchen
61. Sold Boy Scout popcorn
62. Gone whale watching
63. Got flowers for no reason
64. Donated blood, platelets or plasma
65. Gone sky diving
66. Visited a Nazi Concentration
67. Bounced a check
68. Flown in a helicopter
69. Saved a favorite childhood toy
70. Visited the Lincoln Memorial
71. Eaten Caviar
72. Pieced a quilt
73. Stood in Times Square
74. Toured the Everglades
75. Been fired from a job
76. Seen the Changing of the Guards in London
77. Broken a bone
78. Been on a speeding motorcycle
79. Seen the Grand Canyon in person
80. Published a book
81. Visited the Vatican
82. Bought a brand new car
83. Walked in Jerusalem
84. Had your picture in the newspaper
85. Read the entire Bible
86. Visited the White House
87. Killed and prepared an animal for eating
88. Had chickenpox
89. Saved someone’s life
90. Sat on a jury
91. Met someone famous
92. Joined a book club
93. Lost a loved one
94. Become a parent (edited since I can't have a baby)
95. Seen the Alamo in person
96. Swam in the Great Salt Lake
97. Been involved in a law suit
98. Owned a cell phone
99. Been stung by a bee
100. Read an entire book in one day

Total = 33

A Republican Joke

To show there is no hard feelings after the election, Gov. Sarah Palin has cordially invited President-elect Obama and Vice-President-Elect Biden on a moose hunting trip. Vice President Cheney has offered to teach them gun safety and Sen. Ted Kennedy has offered to drive the party back to the cabins after the pre-hunt party.

Ohio St. Vault Up

The folks that run the BCS are breathing a huge sign of relief this weekend. Several nightmare scenarios could have occurred but now they are free and clear of almost all the major problems.

As both Alabama and Florida won convincingly on Saturday, there will be no argument from anyone that whichever one wins the SEC championship next week deserves to go to the National Title Game. On the other side, both Texas and Oklahoma won so Texas Tech is kept out of the Big 12 Championship. There might be some quibbling over the fact that Oklahoma won the Big 12 South title due to a higher BCS ranking, despite the fact that Texas won the head-to-head match-up, but that’s the way the tie-breakers went. I don’t think anyone is going to dispute Oklahoma as an unworthy title contender.

Also helping the BCS folks is the fact that Oregon St. lost the Civil War to Oregon. This means that USC will win the Pac-10 title and a berth in the Rose Bowl if they beat UCLA this weekend. It also means that the BCS would have another conference champion to turn to if Oklahoma gets upset by Missouri on Saturday. Granted, things look like they would go for Texas if Oklahoma lost, but there is an outside chance that the voters would vault USC up just to make sure that the National Championship is between two conference champions. But I think Oklahoma will win and this will all be a moot point.

As such, my latest projections for the BCS bowls are as follows:

National Title: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Penn St. vs. USC
Fiesta: Texas vs. Ohio St.
Sugar: Alabama vs. Utah
Orange: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech/BC

There is an outside possibility that if Virginia Tech wins the ACC, the Sugar Bowl might step on the Orange Bowl’s toes and invite Virginia Tech to face off against Alabama. That would then force the Orange Bowl to take Cincinnati and Utah (which might not be a bad game actually). I should also note that while Boise St., TCU, and Ball St. are in the top 12 of the BCS rankings, the BCS is only required to give an automatic berth to one non-BCS school and Utah has the highest ranking (#6) of the four. Given the options, I believe that the Fiesta Bowl will opt for the proven traveler in Ohio St. over the other three that I have mentioned (even though Boise St. (#9) is ranked ahead of them (#10)). Texas Tech (#7) is not BCS bowl eligible because 2 teams from the Big 12 have already been taken.