Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Israeli Follow-up

With 99% of the vote counted, Kadima has about a 30,000 vote lead, which equates to a one-seat victory over Likud (28-27). However, the soldier vote has not been counted yet so that could narrow Kadima's lead to the point that Likud could pull into a tie.

Either way, it's pretty much certain that the right-wing parties beat out the left-wing parties by about 10 seats. This means that even though Kadima might have the largest single bloc, a majority of the Knesset will recommend to Shimon Peres (President of the Knesset) that Likud be given the first opportunity to form the government. Likud will probably not be able to do that unless it pulls in at least one left party and Kadima would be the most logical choice. However, if Likud can get Shas (11) and Israel, Our Home (14) to play ball, they could pull Labor (13) into the government to make up the difference.

There will be some gymnastics yet to come.

No comments: