Soccer Truth

I like World Cup, but this really is soccer to a tee:

No Fishing Zone

NOAA has expanded the "No Fishing Zone" on the Gulf. It now comprimises approximately 33.5% of Gulf Waters:

Volcanic Contrast

This picture was taken earlier in the year showing the eruption of the Icelandic volcano while the Northern Lights play above. Very pretty.

Listing BOP

Even though Hurricane Alex is no where near the site of the oil leak, the wave action is having some serious effects on the BOP and the collection pipe. Watching the "front" end from Enterprise 1 and the "back" from Skandi 2 show the funnel waving back and forth quite a lot. The collective hits have been bad enough that one of the guide fins (which look like 1/2" plate steel to me) has been bent and is now askew.

The resulting hits seem to have had an effect on the BOP as well. The Coast Guard is stating that the BOP is now listing 12 degrees. When you watch the feeds (especially Skandi 2 which has a fixed object for a frame of reference) you can see the cap rocking and the BOP swaying like a tree in the breeze.

Knowing what I know about metal fatigue (especially low cycle fatigue), I'm not sure the BOP is going to last until the relief wells are drilled. Catastrophic failure of the BOP will certainly increase the flow rate of the leak and I don't know how that will impact the ability of the relief well to stop the overall leak.

Optical Oil Tricks

So, who sees a white horse galloping towards Florida?

Lightning

Apparently this strike took place in Chicago two days ago. I wouldn't have wanted to be in either tower, but it looks cool:

Second Leak?

Periodically, I sweep the live feeds of the ROVs monitoring the Gulf Oil Spill. This morning I saw something that has me a touch more worried. This is the feed from the Intervention ROV1. At first glance, it looks like it's off-line but then you see something faintly green and moving in the background. If you watch long enough, you see bits of sea detritus or one of the ROV cables move back and forth so you know that the cameras are on. I tried doing a print screen of the shot but instead of a picture of the screen, it kept streaming the live feed.

So what are we seeing? The fact that the light is off and that the depth gauge in the upper right corner is consistently reading 4900 ft tells me that a second leak has sprung from the sea floor. Judging from what I can see of the plume, it looks fairly strong too. Many people have speculated that there have been additional breeches. I think this confirms it.

As an aid, here are the links to some of the other ROVs:

Enterprise 2 - this one has been watching the top of the BOP and the cap. Incidentally, you can see that the BOP is starting to list.
Skandi 1 - Top of the BOP from a different angle
Skandi 2 - in a holding pattern at the moment of this posting.
Intervention 2 - currently offline
Enterprise 1 - currently offline
Q4000 1 - in a holding pattern at the moment
Q4000 2 - in a holding pattern at the moment

For quick check, here's all at once.

Oil Diagram

Here's a visual aid of a standard subsea pipe casing and some of my markings on what has probably happened to the casing:

On a much lighter note, here's some nonsense from an Australian politician about a tanker spill in 2007. Put in John Cleese and you'd swear it was Monty Python:

Oil Spill Update

Something very cool happened today. I found out last night about the cap that will fit on top of the leaking BOP in the Gulf, which should capture all of the escaping oil until the relief wells are drilled. A couple of the guys I work with are doing some work on it as well and it's cool to see some of the pictures. Once it's in place down in the Gulf, I'll see if I can post a pic of it.

Countering this interesting news, people have been posting theories and other information on what might be happening and what could happen. Worst case scenario is actually really, really bad. What I've been able to glean is that this oil reserve is about 25,000 sq. miles, which makes it the second largest ocean oil reserve in the world (the one off the coast of Brazil is the largest). Also, because of the depth of the reserve, the oil coming out is about 40% methane. Methane is the gas that provides the pressure that drives the oil out of the well.

The failure of the top kill method last month proved that there is a rupture in the pipe below the surface of the sea floor. It may be way deep or may be only 100 ft. below the surface. Because the pressure of the oil is so high and there is so much gas mixed in, gas has likely been escaping through the sub-floor rupture and creating a secondary gas bubble below the surface of the gulf.

Now, the danger is that if the pressure is not relieved in time (by the relief well or if they clamp too much pressure on the BOP), the gas under the surface of the seabed could explode, collapsing the sea floor. This in turn could result in either of two things: Either the BOP crashes down into the hole, collapses and the hole expands providing a greater escape for the oil; or the collapse of the sea bed causes a cascade of sea floor collapse (like floors of a building collapsing each other) and the entire floor collapses into the oil reservoir. If that happens, the pressure release would likely create a tidal wave that could reach supersonic speed. The resulting wave would wipe out nearly everything in Florida (elevation barely tops six feet) and could go north upwards of 20-50 miles.

Huffpo has something similar described.

Even worse, some have questioned whether the resulting collapse and earthquake that would follow might not set off the Yellowstone Caldera volcano. If that happened, the entire Western United States would simply disappear in the eruption. But that's an extreme event.

Hopefully, the relief wells work and all of this is just tin-foil hat stuff. I'll try and keep everyone advised.

*UPDATE*

Look at the lower right hand corner in this video. Doesn't that look like some sort of gremlin from the Twilight Zone?

Low Points

One of the lowest points of the Jimmy Carter presidency was the so-called Malaise speech. Dark and lecturing, it was exactly what the public didn't want to hear, although it did offer solutions and substance.

Mr. Obama's speech last night apparently made some people wish for even that level of effort.

Irony - Ohio Edition

Last night the large statue of Jesus outside the Solid Rock Church on I-75 (known by many as Touchdown Jesus) burned down after being struck by lighting. That is what's known as irony.

Hosed

If you think things are bad with the oil spill now, wait until you read about what could happen if that relief well isn't drilled in time. Dire consequences indeed.

Unused Oil Boom

Government competency at its finest.

Rowing Along

With everything going on, this crosses my mind every now and again:

There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing
Is it raining? Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a-blowing?

Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a-glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing!!!

Watch Your Step

Now that's a sinkhole:

Israel Completly Justified

There has been a lot of buzz over the incident late Sunday night/Monday morning of the storming of the Gaza blockade runners. Probably the best details I've seen of the incident can be found here. Yes I know it's an Israeli blog but it has the most detail I've been able to find of the incident.

Frankly even without the details written there, I am in full support of the Israelis. Turkey and the other sponsors of this flotilla made no secret of their plans to run a blockade that has been declared against an entity (Hamas) that is at war with Israel. Every aspect of international law has been followed giving Israel complete justification for their actions; never mind their soldiers defending themselves with lethal force upon being attacked.

Honestly, the Israelis have shown great restraint in this situation. I would have been sorely tempted to let the ships get within 1 mile of the blockade line, give them reasonable warning through loudspeakers, then put a torpedo into the hull of the lead vessel as they crossed the 12-mile line. That would probably have been seen as excessive (although the UN still hasn't condemned North Korea for doing almost exactly the same thing - and there was no blockade running in that situation).

Some would like to believe that cooler heads will prevail. I don't think so. It could be a small affair, or it could spiral into an Isaiah 17 situation. We shall see.

More Earthquakes

7.4 of the coast of Vanuatu. Tsunami warnings have been issued.

His Name was Samuel

Lost is officially over. A very good show, tedious at times, frustrating at others, but still an overall good experience.

I myself enjoyed the finale. I had made peace with the idea a few weeks ago that we were not going to get answers to all our questions. The finale did a pretty good job of reminding people that the show ultimately was about characters and not the location.

That being said, some answers are nice to get. Obviously we didn't want the laundry list approach that we got in Revenge of the Sith, but an answer here and there was good (closure on Rose, Bernard, and Vincent for example). Rumor has it that the additional 20 minutes of footage that will be on the DVD will contain a couple of answers. I don't know if the name of the Man-in-Black was to be part of that, but I read a post that had that info. That post has been removed so I don't know how accurate that info is. Still, it makes for a good post title.

I am sad that Lost is gone, but I enjoyed it and maybe I'll even think about picking up the DVDs someday. But I think some time will have to pass before I go down that road.

Get Your Own Dirt

This news item reminded me of this joke:

One day a group of scientists got together and decided that man had come a long way and no longer needed God. So they picked one scientist to go and tell Him that they were done with Him.

The scientist walked up to God and said, "God, we've decided that we no longer need you. We're to the point that we can clone people and do many miraculous things, so why don't you just go on and get lost."

God listened very patiently and kindly to the man and after the scientist was done talking, God said, "Very well, how about this, let's say we have a man making contest." To which the scientist replied, "OK, great!"

But God added, "Now, we're going to do this just like I did back in the old days with Adam."

The scientist said, "Sure, no problem" and bent down and grabbed himself a handful of dirt.

God just looked at him and said, "No, no, no. You go get your own dirt!"

Anti-Incumbency?

There were a number of primary races but four in particular seemed to be played up more than the rest.

The first was the Republican nomination in Kentucky. In that, Rand Paul (son of Ron Paul) defeated Trey Grayson. Grayson had been recruited by Mitch McConnell and was seen as more representing the establishment while Paul is the darling of the Kentucky Tea Party and has no specific political experience (aside from what he got helping his father).

The second race was the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha (D-PA) in PA-12. In that race, Mark Critz (D) defeated Tim Burns (R) by 8 points (53-45). PA-12 is heavily Democratic but it went for McCain in the general so the message is mixed. Mr. Critz did make a big show of opposing key points of Mr. Obama's agenda so his record for the remainder of the term will likely make or break him come November when he faces off against Mr. Burns again.

Also in Pennsylvania, Arlen Spector was knocked out by Joe Sestak in the Democratic Senate primary. This is being spun as part of the anti-incumbent movement but the particulars should be examined here. Mr. Spector had been a Republican for 29 of his 30 years in the Senate and then flipped because he knew he was probably going to lose to Pat Toomey in the Republican primary (Toomey won easily). That doesn't breed a lot of loyalty even if you do have the backing of the White House and the DSCC. Plus, if one actually takes a deeper look at the polling, Mr. Sestak was polling better against Mr. Toomey anyway. So why not go with him rather than the old turncoat?

The final race of interest was the Democratic Senate primary in Arkansas. Blanche Lincoln was facing a challenge from the left in the form of Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Ms. Lincoln earned more votes (barely) but failed to achieve 50% of the total so a runoff will be held on June 8 to determine who faces off against John Boozman. This may be an open purity test by the Democrats as neither Ms. Lincoln or Mr. Halter have cracked 40% in the polls. In that case, Democrats may be saying that if we're going to lose, we're going to lose with the candidate we like rather than squishy middle of the roaders. We'll have to see who gets that remaining 10% of the vote in three weeks.

All in all, I think the mood is not so much anti-incumbent as it is a strive for purity. Both sides are purging the party of both those who have been in Washington a long time and those seen as middle of the road folk. I think drives of more conservative candidates is being paralleled by drives for more liberal candidates. The gap between the sides is getting wider, not narrower.

Another 7

Two days ago, the northern portion of the island of Sumatra was hit with a 7.4 earthquake. No deaths were reported but for those of you keeping track, this is now the 8th earthquake this year that has been 7.0 or greater. There have been another 66 earthquakes between 6.0 and 6.9.

First Primary Results

Primaries were held in Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina last night. The results were pretty boring for the most part. Dan Coats (R) won out in Indiana to take on Brad Ellsworth (D) for Evan Byah's (D) Senate seat. Lee Fisher (D) will face Rob Portman (R) for George Voinovich's (R) Senate seat. Neither of these results are surprising.

Turnout was actually pretty abysmal in Ohio as most of the races were unopposed affairs. One might have thought that the Fisher/Brunner race might have peak the Dems a little bit, but that was not the case.

In OH-2 where I live, Ms. Schmidt (R) prevailed with 61.6% of the vote. Her closest competitor, Mike Kilburn, got slammed with only 22.3% of the vote. She will face off against Surya Yalamanchili (D) who snagged 40.8% against two other candidates. Mr. Yalamanchili was the dark horse in this one but benefited when his closest rival, David Krikorian, made a statement that someone with so obvious an Indian name could not get elected. This may be true or not, but it was seen as a racist attack and both men reaped the effects.

About the only interesting thing that happened was in the North Carolina primary. There, the incumbent, Richard Burr (R) was to find out whom he would face. However, North Carolina law stipulates that the primary race winner must have at least 40% of the vote or a run-off is held between the top two candidates. Elaine Marshall (NC Secretary of State) only secured 36.4% and thus must face a run-off against Cal Cunningham (27.3%) on June 22. Thus, Mr. Burr gets that much longer to plot strategy and raise money.

Next Tuesday (May 11) is the Georgia primary. A more interesting set of primaries will be held on May 18 when Arkansas, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania go to the polls.

Samaritan Passover

One of the Israel blogs I like to read did a profile of the Samaritan Passover. The Samaritans are a mixed breed of Jews and Gentiles (specifically Babylonians) that formed their own version of Judaism during Alexander the Great's conquest (331 BCE).

Anyway, they are apparently allowed to celebrate a Passover sacrifice that allows for the formal sacrifice of sheep (unlike the Jews). This apparently is a big deal with a lot of Jews and other outsiders coming to observe the event. The write up with pictures (a couple are a little graphic) is located here. From a cultural and religious point of view, its quite fascinating. You can also see how the desire is growing stronger among Jews in Israel to rebuild the Temple and resume a similar practice.

Engineering Made Simple

For those you who do not like Dilbert, this is a good example of how things go in the engineering world:This is especially true for the documentation aspect.

Stupid Banner of the Day

I'm not a big fan of the new Arizona law. Frankly, anything that allows authority figures to stop a person on the street and demand to see his papers smacks heavily of the Soviet Union/Nazi Germany, etc. However, whoever wrote this banner at MSNBC needs to be smacked hard:

By definition, status as an illegal immigrant is a crime (punishable by deportation). The Arizona law just gives the police new powers to enforce what is already an illegal act. This is my main objection. There are already sufficient laws that if they were simply enforced, illegal immigration would be a significantly smaller problem.

But that doesn't stop the MSNBC writer from being a moron.

Things Going Wrong

The company that subcontracts to my company is very nice about sending us pictures of stuff that we have worked on. Its rather nice to see the final result of all that work. However, we also see what happens when things that we work on go wrong:

I myself never worked on the Deepwater Horizon, but it still gives one an eerie feeling knowing that I have worked on stuff for nearly identical rigs.

Bad News for Europe

Nearly all Western European flights have been cancelled due the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull (ay-yah-FYAH'-plah-yer-kud-duhl) volcano in Iceland. People have been hoping that they'll be able to get airborne by Sunday or Monday. However the last time this volcano erupted, it lasted for 14 months (Dec. 1821-Jan. 1823). That would have a devastating impact on the economy and ecology of Europe. It gets even worse when noted that the lava flow could trigger an eruption in the neighboring volcano which could trigger a major temperature drop across the globe.

It should also be noted that this volcano has now put more CO2 and pollution into the atmosphere than every car in Europe since the automobile was invented.

Anthropological GW... bah!

Earth is Not Happy

A volcano has been erupting in Iceland.

6.9 earthquake in China, very close to adding to the 7.0+ total that was noted last week.

Something is definately up from a geologic standpoint.

Future Tech

Someone sent out a slide show of some future technology that various companies are working on. Personally, I love this bathtub:

I was also highly amused by these two pictures of a coat that stores energy and illuminates at night. It reminds me way too much of Tron:

Federalism When Desired

I ran across this excellent rebuttal to Federal oversight of health care today, written by Lori Swanson (D), Attorney General of Minnesota:

What ails the federal government, however, is not the lack of regulatory authority but the lack of will to use it.

Over the past 50 years, deregulation at the federal level has no doubt improved efficiency in some industries. But federal regulatory indifference has ill-served the public in many others: the Food and Drug Administration's aversion to oversight of pharmaceuticals; the Justice Department's reluctance to enforce the antitrust laws; the Department of Labor's hesitance to regulate federally governed health plans; the Federal Communication Commission's unwillingness to rein in media concentration; and the Environmental Protection Agency's failure to address invasive species in the Great Lakes or carbon, mercury and ozone emissions. The list goes on and on. With this kind of performance record in Washington, now is not the time for the state government to forfeit consumer protection to the feds.

The administration also wants to allow insurance companies to be regulated exclusively by the federal government. This not only would undermine the ability of states to protect policyholders from unfair insurance practices, it probably would raise insurance rates in states like Minnesota. Midwestern states often have lower property- and casualty-insurance rates because they don’t have the same hazards — hurricanes, outdated building code enforcement, urban fires, etc. — that result in higher rates on the two coasts and in the South. A federal insurance-rate regulation system would likely gloss over geographical differences, causing Minnesota’s insurance premiums to go up.

State government has shown that it can be more responsive to the needs of the ordinary citizen. For example, in 2006, while the states were pursuing Ameriquest Mortgage for $325 million over its predatory lending practices, the White House was busy appointing the company’s CEO to be ambassador to the Netherlands.

There is just one small caveat about this rebuttal. It was written in opposition to Bush's proposal of a federal Mortgage Origination Commission in 2008. Ms. Swanson has not extended the same argument to Mr. Obama's regulations on health care insurance. In fact, she is filing an amicus brief in support of the Obama administration against several lawsuits being filed by the AGs of other states.

Hold one position or another but don't be caught as two-faced just because of how it might benefit you.

Special Elections

We already knew that the special election for PA-12 was going to happen on May 18. What we didn't know was that the Republicans and the Democrats got together in their smokey backrooms and selected candidates for the special election: Tim Burns (R) and Mark Critz (D). Now the odd thing is that in the same election, the voters will select a replacement of these two men and also select the nominees for the regular election in November. One would presume that they might be the same, but that is not assured. Whoever wins the special election will almost certainly be the nominee in the general election, but it is possible that the loser could also lose the nomination to another candidate. Very odd series of events.

Four days later on May 22, there will be an open election for HI-1. Under norman circumstances this would be a Democratic walk in the park (Neil Abercrombie won with 70.6% in 2008). However, the Democrats are split between Ed Case (a blue dog) and Colleen Hanabusa (traditional liberal) while the Republicans have just Charles Djou. There might be enough of a split to give Mr. Djou the win, but even now, Democrats are taking steps to prevent that.

Earthquakes

Tell me that this doesn't make you sit up just a little bit:

January 3, 2010 - Solomon Islands: 7.1
January 12, 2010 - Leogane, Haiti: 7.0
February 27, 2010 - Curinape, Chile: 8.8
March, 8, 2010 - Ryukyu Islands, Japan: 7.0
April 4, 2010 - Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico: 7.2
April 7, 2010 - Aceh, Indonesia: 7.8

There's a lot of heavy shaking going on. I hope this isn't building towards anything nastier than what we've already seen.

Quick Primary Reference

A quick reference when trying to remember the dates of the various primaries. Ohio is May 4.

Unlikely Final Four

I want to see a bracket (any bracket) that had these teams in the Final 4:

#5 Michigan St. vs. #5 Butler

#2 West Virginia vs. #1 Duke

The only one of these that I got right was Duke. I had Kansas, Kansas St., and Kentucky rounding out the brackets.

I can imagine that the powers that be probably would like Michigan St. vs Duke in the finals. Both teams have large followings with a good history behind them. I personally would like to see Butler vs. West Virginia with Butler winning the whole thing.

Butler is in the Horizon League and the last time that a non-BCS conference won the National Championship was in 1990 when UNLV won (they were in the Big West then and are part of the Mountain West now). Prior to that, you would have to go back to Louisville winning it in 1980 (Louisville was in the Metro Conference then).

Butler does have one advantage that the other schools do not. Butler is actually located in Indianapolis, where the championship games will be played. At the very least, they will enjoy a sizable home court advantage.

219-212

Bart Stupak and his block caved to a promise of an executive order defunding the abortion provisions in the Senate bill. Very stupid in my opinion as one, I'm not sure that an executive order on funding is even legal; and two, the President (or any subsequent President) could simply choose to ignore or even rescind the order. In other words, it's not worth the paper it's printed on.

The Senate version of the bill will be signed into law (probably today) while an amending package will be sent to the Senate to go through reconciliation. Republicans will try to stop it and personally, I think the Senate will choose to do very little with it, saving their own necks and effectively hanging the House out to dry.

In the spirit of the new law, here's a catchy little tune for you.

But Winston, Oceania Has Always Been at War with Eastasia

“We have a political culture in which the word ‘reconciliation’ has come to mean ‘bitter division.'"

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Debt is Solvency.


I wish I could say that I thought of that analogy, but I found it somewhere else.

Trust Me...

Yesterday, the Senate Parliamentarian ruled that the Senate is not allowed to take up Reconciliation measures regarding the Health Care Bill until President Obama has signed it into law. Essentially this means that any changes the House would have liked to make would be placed on hold. Before anything else may be considered, they must pass the Senate version of the bill as written and then Mr. Obama must sign it.

This actually is potential bad news for Mr. Obama. Up until now, there has been a game of chicken going on between Democrats in the House and Democrats in the Senate, neither one wanting to commit any more political capital to a very unpopular measure. Now the Senate is off the hook and the House has to indulge in a huge trust me.

Let's be frank. The House hates this version of the bill. All 178 Republicans have committed to voting against it. Bart Stupak and his 14 other Pro-Life Democrats have stated that they will not vote for the Senate version due to it's Federal funding of abortion. A number of Blue Dog Democrats don't want to vote for it because it means humiliating defeat in their conservative districts (Heath Schuler being a prime example).

Adding to Ms. Pelosi's woes are members of the Progressive Caucus (like Dennis Kucinich) who are livid that the Senate version does not contain a Public Option for health care and imposes a heavy tax on Union pension plans. There have also been rumblings that both the CBC and the CHC are unhappy and may vote no because of the lack of perks for their own constituents.

The main problem is that no one wants to touch an unpopular bill and House Democrats are worried that they will be hung out to dry. The theory goes that after the House passes the bill and Mr. Obama signs it into law, the Senate will go through Reconciliation to change budgetary matters within the bill that no one likes. This includes removing the large bribes paid to Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA). However, the House is deathly afraid that once Mr. Obama signs the bill, he will call it a great accomplishment and the matter will be dropped. The Senate will not bother with Reconciliation and the House will be left holding the bag while the members of their districts sharpen their knives.

To pass the bill, Ms. Pelosi needs 216 votes (this is reduced from the normal 218 votes due to four vacancies in the House at the moment: Robert Wexler (FL-19), Jack Murtha (PA-12), Neil Abercrombie (HI-1), and Eric Massa (NY-29)). As stated above, 178 Republicans and 15 Democrats are absolute "nos" at the moment. Which means that of the 39 Democrats who voted no last time, she will have to flip 17 of them while making sure that none of the more liberal members flip to no as a sign of protest.

A tall order, even without the stink of fear.

Very Early Handicapping

It's amazing what one bad year will do to a politician. Granted, the Presidential election season gets longer and longer, but it seems that people have already factored in that the Republicans are going to make significant gains in 2010 and are starting to look at 2012.

This isn't very practical as two and a half years is a very long time politically (we all thought Mr. Clinton was dead in Dec. 1994) and we can only estimate how the electoral votes will be recast following the 2010 census. Most people seem to be looking at the projections that Wiki quotes, which would take 7 from Mr. Obama and give them to Mr. McCain for a 358-180 win for Mr. Obama.

Playing my own game with the numbers, I start Mr. Obama with 222 EV and the Republican with 181 (for ease of math I'm giving the R all of Nebraska rather than the 4-1 split of 2008). In 2008, all the swing states broke for Mr. Obama. Depending on the quality of the candidate and the current economic climate, I think the Republicans have a good shot at taking back Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) and Indiana (11). I also think that if the cards are played correctly, the Republicans take back Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). This brings the balance up to 235-222.

Of the remaining states, Florida is the brass ring. Florida is expected to gain 1 vote for a total of 28 votes. If the Republican wins that they would only need 7 more votes to win (alternatively, the Republicans could concede Colorado and take Ohio (18) to win if they take Florida). On the other hand, if Mr. Obama takes Florida and then holds Pennsylvania, he gets 270 exactly and the rest is irrelevant.

It is possible that one side may make a play for a state that's been solid to one side, but that adds to much variable to the mix at the moment. Still, I would warn Floridians to prepare themselves for intense bombardment over the entire stretch of 2012.

Pretty

These are compiled images from the NASA satellite TERRA:

Perry Vs White

No, this isn't a Superman bit.

Texas had their primary Tuesday and Gov. Rick Perry managed to get the better than 50% he needed to avoid a run-off against Sen. Hutchison. I saw a little too much of this race while I was in Houston as both sides went at it hammer and tongs with ads.

Mr. Perry will square off against Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election in November. Mr. Perry is seeking his third full term (he took over when George W. Bush resigned to assume the Presidency) and has been dogged with accusations of cronyism and other things associated with staying in office for a long time. However, Texas is in a real conservative mood these days and Mr. Perry's almost CSA rhetoric should get him in well enough to soundly defeat Mr. White.

Welcome to the Planet Hoo-ston

I'm in Houston, TX for business this week and the next. I was actually supposed to arrive here on Monday, but a major snowstorm hit Cincinnati that day and the plane I was on had a deicing malfunction. By the time they were in a mode to get it fixed, the flight had been cancelled. So I and my co-worker were switched to an American flight to Chicago where we were to pick up another flight to Houston.

After sitting around the airport for nearly 11 hours (including a boarding and a disembarking of the first plane) I was finally aboard the flight to Chicago. That was then in-turn delayed nearly an hour and a half because the deicing machine ran out of fluid and had to get refilled. So a flight that was supposed to leave Cincinnati at 5:30, didn't leave until a little after 7. We gained an hour into Chicago but still landed nearly a half an hour after our connecting flight had left.

American gave us a partial voucher for a nice hotel in Chicago. Unfortunately, the person working the ticket counter didn't tell us that our bags would be held at the gate and sent on ahead on the first flight to Houston. So we waited an additional hour and a half at the luggage carousel before we got the story straight from the lost bag folks. So after all that, we crashed at the hotel.

Things got a little better the next day. The wrong gate was printed on our tickets but we corrected ourselves long before our flight left. On boarding, something was wrong with my ticket and they issued me a new seat number, only to find out that someone was already sitting there. Fortunately, the seat next to him was empty and I was told to sit there. The flight was only slightly delayed and we finally landed in Houston around 1 pm Tuesday afternoon. We were supposed to arrive around 8 am Monday morning.

Houston itself isn't bad. It's funny to see the people bundling up in tight coats when it only gets to 50 degrees. After the snow storm, this feels balmy to me. I have gotten a comment or two when I went out to the shop to look at some equipment wearing no coat and just a short sleeve knit shirt. But, I would probably be dying in July and August while they didn't feel it.

Can't say I would want to live here, but it's not the worst place I've visited earlier. Here's the overhead shot of where I am:

RI-1

Camelot is now officially over. It's been over for a while but yesterday Patrick Kennedy, son of Ted and representative for Rhode Island's first district, announced that he would not seek reelection. As such, when the new Congress convenes in January 2011 it will be the first time that no one from the Kennedy clan has not been in either the Legislative or Executive Branch of government since Jan. 1947.

Kennedy had been trailing in the polls and his numerous scrapes with the law may have finally been catching up to him. State Representative Jon Brien (D) had been mulling a primary challenge against Kennedy and now it appears that he could easily step in as the Democratic nominee. The Republican nominee will likely be State Representative John Loughlin.

The removal of Kennedy from the equation will probably ensure that this seat stays Democratic. Kennedy had a lot of personal baggage that could have been used against him. Without that baggage, the seat should easily revert to it's natural liberal tilt.

PA-12

Yesterday, the representative of PA-12, John Murtha (D), died due to complications from gall bladder surgery. These complications are believed to have been the result of a nicked instestine that allowed infection to set in. Needless to say, a lawsuit by the family is probably in the offering.

PA-12 was expected to be competitive (McCain won the district in 2008) but Mr. Murtha had managed to beat back some very robust challengers over the years. With his death, the race effectively moves into toss-up status. Gov. Ed Rendell has 10 days to set a date for a special election which must be held no sooner than 60 days after the declared vacancy (yesterday). The expectation is that the special election will be held on May 18, which is already slated as the date for various primaries (effectively saving Pennsylvania a little money).

Two Democrats had declared primary challenges to Mr. Murtha (although neither was expected to do much): Naval officer Ryan Bucchianeri and attorney Ron Mackell. On the Republican side, the two declared candidates were 2008 nominee Tim Burns and Army veteran Bill Russell. No mention has been made, but one would expect the special election to be an open field with all four (or more) candidates on the ballot. It is also possible that party leaders from both sides could simply decide on their candidates (sans primary) and just field two names. Things will become clearer in the coming days.

It has also been pointed out that the death of Mr. Murtha now puts the HealthCare Bill in serious trouble in the House. The first version passed with 220 votes (218 needed for passage). Since then, the lone Republican who voted for it, Joseph Cao, has stated that he will not vote for it again and Robert Wexler (FL-19) has resigned to take another job. With Mr. Murtha's death, there are now only 217 votes, meaning that Ms. Pelosi will have to flip a "no" to pass the bill. In reality, she would have to flip two votes as Neil Abercrombie (HI-1) will be resigning effective Feb. 28.

Good Game

Arguably, Super Bowl XLIV was the best Super Bowl I've seen since Super Bowl XXXIV. I don't think it was better than that one, but it was certainly a good game. I was somewhat dismissive of the Saints, especially after they went for it and lost on the 4th and goal at the 1. But something seemed to happen when the Saints in turn stopped the Colts from running out the clock in the 1st half and they managed to tack on the field goal at the end of the half. That gave the Saints life and then they grabbed the momentum whole hog on the very ballsy on-side kick call.

I actually was hoping that the Colts would have held on to win 24-13 or (once the Saints had pushed it to 24-17) that the Colts could take it to overtime to win it 30-24. Either of those scores would have given me the final score in my boxes and gotten me $40. But such is life. Congrats to New Orleans.

The commercials sucked hard this year. Many were overly sexist and exceptionally crude in their humor. The Doritos commercials were especially bad. There were only three commercials that I enjoyed:

1. Coke: Simpson's - It was simple but full of standard Simpson's visual humor.
2. Doritos: Boyfriend/kid - A kid telling off a potential boyfriend for his mom was actually funny and not offensive, like the rest of the Doritos ads.
3. Monster: Beaver violist - This one was a bit stupid but it had good music overlaying it and it didn't overplay the jokes.

I'd give a passing mention to the Budweiser: Comet and the Dockers: No Pants ads. The Comet only because it had Francois Chau from Lost and the Docker's because it had a catchy tune and that WTF is going on moment.

There is one other ad that seems to be talked about a lot. The Audi: Green Police ad. When I first saw the ad, I was a little turned off because the satire of it was lost on me. Perhaps it was the way Audi was presenting the car as a solution, but there was an element of believability to it and any aspect of a secret police (from whatever cut they may be) stands the hairs on the back of my neck. In hindsight, it's easier to see the satire of the ad and it's humorous intent, but it still gives me a vague, uneasy feeling.

Super Bowl XLIV Predictions

We got the pool assignments for the Super Bowl today. My best squares are Indy4-NO3 and Indy0-NO4. I also have Indy7-NO5 which isn't that bad. So I figure I've got a decent chance to win one of the quarters.

I don't know what my university would have served for Indianapolis at our annual Super Bowl parties. I have a friend who grew up in Indy but I haven't had a chance to ask him what he thinks they would have served. I'm sure Gumbo and Jambalaya would be served for the New Orleans side of the cafeteria.

As far as the actual game goes, I think Indy will win. I think the game will be a back and forth affair and it could come down to who has the ball last. But I expect Indy's experience will give them and edge. New Orleans will probably be a bit overwhelmed and suffering from the gee-whiz factor. Indy (and especially Peyton Manning) is likely to come out and treat this as just another football game.

It should be a good game and I'm hoping the commercials are a little better this year as well. I think the best thing for me is that I honestly don't care who wins. I like Indy and will probably root for them, but I like New Orleans too and would have no problem whatsoever if they win. Hopefully, it's an entertaining game.

Update: Mrs. X sent this link to me. I think GHW Bush tops SB 41 but the rest go to the SB for a final of SB 23, Presidents 21.

FL-19

FL-19 is the northern reaches of the greater-Miami region, straddling Palm Beach and Broward counties. The seat had been held by Robert Wexler, but he resigned recently to take over the presidency of the Center for Middle East Peace & Economic Cooperation.

A special election is scheduled for April 13 in which State Senator Ted Deutch (D) will face off against Ed Lynch (R). FL-19 has never elected a Republican in it's 18-year history. President Obama won the district 65-34 so one would expect Mr. Deutch to win relatively easily.

I'm also assuming that whomever wins will be sworn in and then immediately have to defend the seat in the Nov. 2 elections. Florida's general primary is August 31, so I would imagine that the loser of this special election would have to face the same competition he had for the original nomination (having been proven a loser).

Ideology

This is an interesting compilation of statistics.

The country as a whole polled 40-21, conservative to liberal. Ohio ranks dead center (25th) at 38.9-18.7 (pretty close to the national average).

OH-2

In theory, every election should put every House seat in play. However, due to gerrymandering, this simply isn't the case. As such, the best one can do is note how the seats are currently laid out and cover the races you know something about or think will be interesting. For reference, here are the current House districts and their current party affiliation:The best way to start off is always with your own district. In my case, OH-2:OH-2 has been represented by Jean Schmidt since Sept. 2005 when she won the special election to replace Rob Portman, who had been tapped by President Bush to become Trade Representative.

Ms. Schmidt has never been that popular (as she has the reputation of being beholden to the Republican leadership rather than conservative principles) and probably would have been defeated in 2006 if OH-2 were not structured to be a strong Republican district (50.58-49.32). To her credit, she has managed to successfully fend off challengers in the primaries and has now amassed enough time in the House to earn some ranking.

The current declared Democrats are Jim Parker, David Krikorian, and Surya Yalamanchili. As the Primary filing deadline is Feb. 18, it is unlikely that any more candidates will be declared. Of the three, Krikorian is probably the favorite to win the nomination.

On the Republican side, Ms. Schmidt is being challenged by Bryan Hawkins and Michael Kilburn. Mr. Kilburn is the most amusing as he made something of a name for himself in 2009 by refusing stimulus money on behalf of Warren County, referring to it as "Obama's filthy money." This earned him a spot as Keith Olberman's Worst Person, that day. Of course, even with this notoriety, it is very unlikely that either Mr. Hawkins or Mr. Kilburn will generate enough momentum by May 4 to unseat Ms. Schmidt for the nomination.

Whomever the candidates are (and I would strongly bet on Ms. Schmidt being one of them) the district is rated somewhere in the leans Republican to Likely Republican range, indicating that without a major change of fortunes or a serious self-inflicted wound, the district will stay red next year.

Of course, the lines will be redrawn for the 2012 race (Ohio is expected to be reduced from 18 districts to as low as 16) so who knows who the set up will be then. Mrs. X thinks it is likely that we get sucked into the Third district, but we shall just have to see. OH-3 is currently held by Mike Turner, who currently has no declared opposition from either party.

Separate Realities

The final season of Lost premiered last night and the main theme for this season seems to be the confluence of two different timelines: one where the show proceeded as normal and one where the plane never crashed.

Probably the biggest thing to remember about the second timeline is that the point of departure (POD) is not the plane not crashing in 2004 but the complete sealing of the EM rupture at the Swan station. As such, the Swan was never built or never built as we know it and the timeline evolved in a different way. Time has diverged drastically on the island (to the point that it is now underwater) and small butterflies have emerged in the timespace outside the island (Jack only got one extra bottle of alcohol from Cindy, Shannon stayed in Australia, Hurley not believing he is cursed, etc.).

The major fly in the ointment about the alternate timeline is Desmond. In normal timespace, Desmond would be living his life as he saw fit. We don't know the status of Charles Widmore (perhaps he went down with the island) and as such, Desmond probably never went on the sailing race. He might be living with Penny or he might have never met her. He was shown sitting next to Jack after Jack returned from the bathroom, but he subsequently disappeared during landing. It is possible that Desmond is still operating as a variable, jumping not only in time, but now in dimensions as well.

I suspect that the two timelines will fuse back into one by the end of the series; but what this will accomplish, I haven't the foggiest.

One other thing. I don't think Sayid has truly come back to life. Dead is dead. I suspect that Jacob may have used Sayid's dying body to provide a host for himself. If Smokey can use Locke to create an altered existence for himself, why can't Jacob use Sayid's body for a similar purpose.

Hawaii Special Election

Not much on tap election-wise at the moment. Illinois is having it's primaries tomorrow and here in Ohio, there is a special election in my county to float a school levy. It will probably fail and the explosion in that school district will probably be very nasty.

However, there is another election coming around the bend that might be interesting. Back in December, the representative for Hawaii's first district (Neil Abercrombie-D) announced that he will resign from his seat to run for governor of Hawaii. Hawaii law stipulates that the seat will remain vacant for 70 days and at some point after that, a special election will be held. This election is open entry and the candidate with plurality will be declared the winner.

This has triggered a little bit of interest as the Republicans already had coalesced around a candidate who they had planned to run against Mr. Abercrombie, Charles Djou. On the Democratic side, there are two principle candidates: Ed Case (a blue dog) and Colleen Hanabusa (a more traditional liberal). Under normal circumstances, one would expect the Democrat to win this race (HI-1 is mostly the city of Honolulu and the surrounding suburbs). However, the inclusion of two Democrats with dissimilar views against one Republican has created an inverse NY-23 race. That doesn't mean that the Republican will win, but it gives him an even better chance.

Despite his announcement in December, Mr. Abercrombie has not actually resigned yet so there is still the 70-day waiting period to go through. One would assume that he's working out something with the governor about when would be a good time for the election to be held. But, once he does, it'll give us another race to follow and read more things into it that are most certainly wrong.

Mr. Matthews... Please Shut Up.

It’s interesting. He is post-racial, by all appearances. You know, I forgot he was black tonight for an hour. You know, he’s gone a long way to become a leader of this country, and passed so much history in just a year or two. I mean, it’s something we don’t even think about.

Far be it from me to read too much into things, but if someone says something like this, doesn't it imply that one doesn't expect a black man to be able to say or do these type of things?

It's Called Class, Dude

I generally don't try to get too worked up over the behavior of our elected and non-elected officials. They're human and with that much power it would be unbelievable naive to not expect corruption and a certain level of entitlement.

However, there are certain levels of decorum that one should expect. A President taking time out of his State of the Union address to openly criticize a specific ruling of the Supreme Court shows a very specific lack of class. It doesn't matter if you think that that ruling is right or wrong. The powers of the government are separated and using a big speech moment to throw a temper tantrum about it reveals a great deal about a person's character. I do not blame Justice Alito for his reaction, nor do I get the impression that many other people will.

Also, is just me or does Justice Ginsburg look terrible? I know she has been sick and has been rumored to be considering retirement but I wasn't expecting her to look that bad.

Deleware in Play

I posted earlier that for the Republicans to take the Delaware Senate seat would be a bit of a uphill climb. That climb got a little easier over the weekend as Beau Biden, son of VP Joe Biden, declined to enter the race. Effectively, there now is no declared Democratic candidate for the Delaware senate seat. That will change quickly I'm sure, but it does give the primary Republican candidate, Mike Castle, a significant leg up.

Championship Weekend

I went 2 and 2 last week. Not bad, especially since I would have been wrong no matter what about the San Diego-NY Jets game. No way was I expecting that.

This weekend's games should be pretty good. On the AFC side, I like Indianapolis. There are two things working against the Jets in my opinion. First, the Jets play a style very similar to what Baltimore does and Indy had very little problem with Baltimore. Second, I think the Colts want to prove that the only reason they lost to the Jets in Week 16 is because the scrubs were put in in the second half. It will be a close game, but I think the Colts pull slowly ahead as the game progresses.

On the NFC side, things are a bit murkier. Most people seem to be going with the Saints in a close game just because of the home field advantage they will enjoy. That is certainly possible but I am always a little more comfortable with strong defenses. I also think that Brett Favre has been here a few times before will give the Vikings a better anchor than the Saints (who may get swept up in the moment). I'll take the Vikings in a very close game.

This would set up the NFL dream talking point for two weeks: Manning vs. Favre. I think the NFL wouldn't care too much about who makes it from any of these four, but the sports media will go nuts over the possibility of this match-up. I'm sure there is probably some stat guy who already has the outcomes of every time the two have met before. But, we shall see.

MA Post Mortem

So why did Mr. Brown win as a Republican in probably the bluest of the blue states? Much ink will be wasted on both sides of the aisle talking about how one candidate was better than the other or how it was a national rebuke of Mr. Obama. In truth it was a combination of many things. The three most significant reasons, in my opinion, are:

1. Scott Brown was a very good candidate. Mr. Brown had the right message at the right time. He talked of lowering taxes and common sense solutions. He got down and met with the people all over the state. It didn’t hurt that he also is young and pleasant on the eyes.

2. Martha Coakley was a terrible candidate. Ms. Coakley did just about everything wrong that you could imagine. She stayed in the ivory tower and dismissed the common folk, refusing to go out and glad hand, refusing to push the GOTV efforts of her staff, and making gaff after gaff after gaff. Her record as Attorney General made many people cringe as well, being on the wrong side of several prominent cases.

3. Obamacare was very unpopular, even in Massachusetts. Mr. Brown made no secret during the campaign that he would be the 41st vote against the Obamacare bill. Exit polling done by Rasmussen, showed that the status of Obamacare was the most important issue with 56% of those voting and Obamacare is opposed in Massachusetts 49-40.

All told, it was a perfect storm and Mr. Brown still only won by 100,000 votes. When Mr. Brown is up for reelection in 2012, it may be an even tougher road to hoe.

Still, Mr. Brown and the Republicans should enjoy the moment. If the government continues to go down the path it has chosen and the economy doesn’t improve, life could get very uncomfortable for some Democrats, especially those in red and purple states.

MA Maps

As promised, here is the county map from last night for Mr. Brown's victory (52-47):

For comparison, here is the map of Mr. Obama's win over Mr. McCain in 2008 (62-36):

For additional comparison, a hair over 3 million votes were cast in the 2008 election with Mr. Obama getting 1.9 million of them. Mr. McCain got 1.1 million. Last night, 2.25 million votes were cast with Mr. Brown getting 1.17 million of them. This is a turnout drop-off of about 25%, which isn't bad for a special election in January. Still, it's something to consider when doing the post-mordem. I'll try to tackle that later today.

One more thing. How’s this for an Oh Shit! moment? In last night’s election, Mr. Brown won independents 73-25.

MA Special Election

1:00 PM Early word is that turnout in the city is light (7%) but turnout in the suburbs of Boston and surrounding areas is very heavy. This bodes very well for Mr. Brown.

1:20 PM Coakley GOTV folks are getting rebuffed. Not good for her.

1:30 PM Wall Street Journal is reporting that due to the quickness of the Brown surge, the standard exit polling firms did not put their people in place in time. As such, there will be no exit polls for the race.

1:55 PM Got to love Ed Schultz /s

2:05 PM Rasmussen has announced that he will have exit polls. Expect his site to crash soon.

2:15 PM Interesting report. Apparently the NRSC and RNC actually knows how to learn.

2:30 PM Oops. You just can't trust media folks when you rig an election.

2:35 PM Intrade pushing Brown over 80 now.

3:15 PM One bookie is already paying off for Mr. Brown. Sucks to be him if he's wrong.

8:00 PM Polls closed. With no exit polls, it'll be a while before results come in.

9:22 PM Coakley concedes with 75% of the vote counted and it's 53-46 Brown.

9:30 PM Difficult to get more info right now. Just about all conservative sites are crashing due to traffic volume. CNN is stuck on Larry King (talking about Haiti), Fox is only talking to ex-Republicans, and I refuse to watch Rachel Maddow and the Democrat blame game. Should be better when CNN goes back to regular programing at 10. (52-47, 87% reporting)

9:45 PM The worst part of Larry King is that there is no chance to use the special CNN board.

9:56 PM Coakley giving her concession speech.

10:00 PM Boston.com has the map of the counties as they shook out. A couple of days ago, I screencaped the map of Mr. Obama's victory over Mr. McCain. Comparing the two is interesting.

10:15 PM Off to bed. We'll go over this corpse tomorrow (52-47 with 96% in).

MA Poll Comparison

This site grabbed the average poll numbers between Mr. Brown and Ms. Coakley since September 15 and now. I cleaned up his chart it was a little misleading and included it below. I'd wager the major turning point was around the debate. A few good points and a few good zingers made points that combined with shoe leather politicing to produce the following chart:


Here's a summary of the last polls before the vote:

PPP: Brown 51 Coakley 46
ARG: Brown 48 Coakley 45
InsideMedford.com: Brown 50.8 Coakley 41.2
Pajamas Media: Brown 51.9 Coakley 42.3

Even Chris Matthews seems to think that this is a done deal.

Football: Divisional Round

Unfortunately, I went 4 for 4 in my picks last week. I was really hoping that the Bengals would win but I picked the Jets like I had during the regular season, hoping that karma would work against me. Oh well.

This week, I'm picking Indy over Baltimore, SD over the NY Jets, Minnesota over Dallas, and Arizona over New Orleans.

The Ravens and Jets are hot, but I think the talent level of the Colts and Chargers will be too much for them. The Colts will try to choke but I think they win in the end.

Dallas/Minnesota will be the best game of the weekend and I think the Vikings win it on some key turnover, but it will be very tight.

New Orleans was a better team but I don't think they'll be able to turn it back on after three losing games and a week off. Arizona has a hot offense and I think they will jump out to a lead and by the time New Orleans does turn it back on, it will be too late.

At the very least, it should be four good games.

Strickland Still Down

Continuing with the theme of way too early political news, incumbent Governor Ted Strickland (D) is now down 7 to John Kasich (R) (47-40). Honestly, we should wait until we have had the primaries before we start paying any attention to these polls. The primaries are scheduled for May 4.

On a similar note, Rob Portman (R) is ahead of Jennifer Brunner (D) 43-40 and ahead of Lee Fisher 44-37. Mr. Fisher has been ahead of Ms. Brunner in the limited primary polling, but if Ms. Brunner continues to show a better race against Mr. Portman, she may swing ahead by the time of the May primaries.

Previously: Looking Ahead to 2010

Senate Races 2010

With all the attention paid to the Massachusetts special election, I thought it would be interesting to list the Senate seats that are being fought over in November. Most pundits I've read state that it would an extremely good day if the Republicans picked up 8+ seats (essentially implying that it is impossible for the Senate to switch sides this year).

As of right now, there are 10 seats that will have no incumbent. Those seats are:

CT (D)
DE (D) - Special election (seat up again in 2014)
FL (R)
KS (R)
KY (R)
IL (D)
MO (R)
NH (R)
ND (D)
OH (R)

The Connecticut seat was in danger until Chris Dodd retired. Now this seat considered relatively safe for Democrats. Should the anti-incumbency feeling hold, Republicans have a good shot winning 7 of these seats with relative ease and the Delaware and Illinois seats requiring more of a fight.

The 26 seats up this year that have the incumbent vying for that seat are:

AL (R)
AK (R)
AR (D)
AZ (R)
CA (D)
CO (D)
GA (R)
HI (D)
ID (R)
IN (D)
IA (R)
LA (R)
MD (D)
NV (D)
NY (D)
NY (D) - Special election (seat up again in 2012; currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand)
NC (R)
OK (R)
OR (D)
PA (D)
SC (R)
SD (R)
UT (R)
VT (D)
WA (D)
WI (D)

On the Republican side it's already known that there will be serious primary challenges in Arizona (John McCain) and Iowa (Chuck Grassley), but of the states listed, the Democrat's best shot at taking an Republican seat would probably be Iowa. All other states are pretty red.

On the Democrat side, Nevada has already been declared essentially lost and both Arkansas and Colorado are considered uphill battles. It is also no secret that the Republicans intend to strongly pursue IN (Evan Bayh) and PA (Arlen Spector). Of course, Mr. Spector may lose his primary fight and that will change the whole picture in PA.

Of course, much can change in 10.5 months and there may be unexpected loses on either side. But looking at the state of play in January, a 12 seat switch is theoretically possible. Unlikely, but possible. The fallout from the MA special election could put a whole new spin on things as well. We shall see.

More Massacheusetts Pain

Ms. Coakley (D) has just suffered two major defeats in her bid to replace Ted Kennedy.

First, despite being the Mass. Attorney General, she has lost the endorsement of two major police unions.

Second, she has now lost the endorsements of both Curt Schilling and Doug Flutie. Actually, the Curt Schilling one could hurt alot because her tone in making it sound like those who go to Fenway are peasants and not worthy of her time.

How much pain can she take before the race breaks for Mr. Brown.

The Wounded

One of the best episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation was an episode called "The Wounded." A reminder about how old wounds never really heal. The culmination of the episode is when Chief Miles O'Brien (Colm Meaney) and Captain Benjamin Maxwell (Bob Gunton) sing the first verse of The Minstrel Boy in memory of a fallen comrade. It is a wonderfully haunting song and done with poignance. The lyrics are below:

The Minstrel Boy to the war is gone
In the ranks of death you will find him;
His father's sword he hath girded on,
And his wild harp slung behind him;"
Land of Song!" said the warrior bard,
"Tho' all the world betrays thee,
One sword, at least, thy rights shall guard,
One faithful harp shall praise thee!"

The Minstrel fell! But the foeman's chain
Could not bring that proud soul under;
The harp he lov'd ne'er spoke again,
For he tore its chords asunder;
And said "No chains shall sully thee,
Thou soul of love and brav'ry!
Thy songs were made for the pure and free,
They shall never sound in slavery!"

The Candidate is NOT Taking Questions

Things are getting ugly in Massachusetts. After Senate candidate Martha Coakley (D) refused to answer a question during a press conference, the reporter who asked it followed her to try and get an answer. A little obnoxious but normal for the time right before an election. Apparently, one of her staffers did not like this:


Worse (from my perspective) is that Ms. Coakley appears to look on and do nothing. If things like this continue to happen and get out, I might start believing that Mr. Brown (R) could actually win this election next week.

Unions for Brown?

Yesterday was a big day for the Scott Brown (R) campaign. He had a good debate with Ms. Coakley (D) and apparently raised nearly 1.3 million dollars in a single day of on-line fundraising. Not bad for Senate campaign deep in the heart of one of the bluest states in the Union.

Probably the most interesting thing that I've seen regarding this election was posted at this blog. At the bottom of the post, a Scott Brown for Senate sign was built by the Steelworkers Union. If Mr. Brown is getting support from the larger unions (SEIU not included), then that is indeed a telling sign that this race may be the squeaker that polls are suggesting it could be.

I'm not betting against Coakley just yet, although it's very clear that Democrats seem to be worried. Mrs. X will be watching American Idol on election night. I'll see if I can't get to the upstairs TV on occasion to check returns.

Not Just the US

It's somewhat nice to know that idiocy among lawmakers is not limited to the United States.

Curiousity in MA

On January 19, Massachusetts will hold a special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy. The two principle candidates are Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R). Normally you would expect Ms. Coakley to coast to an easy victory (and she still might), but things have been a bit unsettled in the Bay State.

Current polling of likely voters is showing Ms. Coakley up only by 9 points (50-41) . This gets even scarier for Ms. Coakley when you factor in that special elections always have much lower turnout and that only two months ago, she was up by 31. Governor Deval Patrick (D) is currently suffering from high unpopularity and there has been only tepid support for Mr. Obama's legislative agenda (still better than most of the country).

A combination of these factors may drive Democratic turnout even lower than normal in a special election (especially if the weather stays bad). All of this could give Mr. Brown a realistic chance of winning the seat.

Now, do I really think that Mr. Brown will win? No. But it could end up being a much closer race than the talking heads feel it should be. It might scare a few more Blue Dogs about their reelection chances. Or it could have no effect at all. For now, we shall just watch and wait.

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football is both fun and silly. I (Potbellied Pigs) finished this season at 6-8 and ranked 9th (out of 12). Needless to say I did not make the play-offs. Still, I thought it would be fun to see how I would have stacked against the four guys who did make the play-offs this week.

Based mostly on the strength of Ben Roethisberger's game against the Packers, I would have finished the day with 97 points. Good in the regular season, not so much in the play-offs. I would have beaten one team (Point Crushers) by one point, tied with another (Tatonka) which would have been a loss as ties go to the team with the better winning percentage, and lost outright to the remaining two teams (Bus Drivers and Shepherd's Schleppers). In fact, Bus Drivers ended the day with 147 points.

I hope we do it again next year. I don't know if I'll do any better due to how much of it is luck based, but it still is fun.

On a brighter note, I am now up by two games in our head-to-head pick 'em. At this point it is down to me and one other guy with two weeks to go. But the last two weeks of the season are the hardest as the good teams start benching people to rest them for the play-offs. I hope to win, but nothing is certain.

Star Wars Motivational Posters

Because motivational posters are just that much funnier if they involve Star Wars:

And for our completely WTF moment:

How Cool is This?

These pictures were taken in Norway last night. They suspect it was a Russian missle test that went wrong. If it was, it's a very regular pattern for fuel ejection. Still, it looks really cool:

How Dumb Are You?

Mr. Obama,

I know that you have been thinking about the troop decision for quite a while and that the announcement regarding the increase in troop levels is very important. But you really should have thought about the timing a little better.

Pissing off parents of young kids is not a smart political move.

The First Thanksgiving

As it is about Thanksgiving, I thought I would talk about the first Thanksgiving.

The Pilgrims landed at Plymouth in November 1620. They settled in a patch of land that had previously been a Native American settlement but that had been wiped out due to disease. The Pilgrims tried to work the land but winter was rolling in and they could do nothing but try to trap a few animals, gather winter fruit, and consume the supplies from the Mayflower. According to the original plan drawn up in the Mayflower Compact, everything was shared equally. However, many of the Pilgrims died due to malnourishment over the winter.

In the Spring, the Pilgrims were approached by a tribe of Native Americans living nearby. They had as one of their guests, Squanto, one of the only survivors of the tribe whose land the Pilgrims now lived upon. Squanto had been held as a slave in England for several years and spoke English well. Being familiar with the advanced technology of the Europeans, Squanto convinced his host tribe to assist the Pilgrims to earn their trust and then use them as leverage in the power play with neighboring tribes.

The Pilgrims used the farming and hunting techniques taught to them by the Natives, but Governor Bradford found that they were still not accumulating enough food to last through the next Winter. At that time, the Pilgrims worked the land commonly and were to store all food in a common grainary that would be distributed equally. Bradford saw that many of the young men were not working or were working a bare minimum because they didn't want to exhaust themselves when it did not directly benefit their own families.

Bradford called a meeting and changed the Compact. He took all the common land and distributed a plot to each family. They were to work it and they were to be dependent on that plot. Should they not produce enough food, they would be required to live on their neighbor's charity, but there would be no obligation to share and no common grainary available.

Faced with this promise and threat, the Pilgrim men threw themselves into the land and production exploded. In that first full year, the Pilgrims produced both enough to feed themselve and send a surplus back to England to be sold and pay off their creditors who had financed their voyage.

In October, Governor Bradford called for a day of Thanksgiving in a model of the old Harvest Home celebration. The Pilgrims invited the members of the Native tribe to the feast, not only to share the bounty with those who had aided them, but also to work in converting the Natives to Christianity.

Much of this story get's truncated and it is important to recognize all factors (good and bad) that went into setting up the holidays we practice today.