People who enjoy historical "What If?" scenarios usually confine themselves to well known junctures that have obvious ramifications (Lee's lost 1862 orders being a well known example). However, everyone who plays historical war games indulges in much the same level of what if.
One of the ones that has intrigued me the most was a game I played a few years ago. The game was a recreation of the First Battle of Kernstown (the only battle Stonewall Jackson ever lost) and this one game was memorable to me based on how badly things went for me (I was playing the Confederates). In the very first turn, as I was pushing my forces across Hogg Run when a long single cannon shot killed Stonewall Jackson! This act destroyed my morale and the dice went against me the rest of the game. I ended up withdrawing most of my forces by the halfway point of the game with Brig. Gen. Garnett's First Brigade suffering over 50% casualties and Col. Fulkerson's Third Brigade nearly annihilated and Fulkerson wounded. Based on the 3,800 Confederate participants, I figure this would have resulted in over 1000 casualties, far more than the original 718; to say nothing of the loss of Jackson himself.
Playing this out is probably the most difficult aspect. The Battle of Kernstown was a tactical defeat for the Confederates but a strategic victory as the Union committed more troops to protecting Washington and driving Jackson out of the Shenandoah rather than reinforcing McClellan on the Peninsula. If my game had actually happened, Garnett would have probably taken command of Jackson's command (ironic given that Jackson blamed Garnett for the loss and had him removed from command). Lincoln would still have committed the troops he did to the Shenandoah Valley so the immediate result would not have changed.
It is likely that even with Jackson's death, Lee would have still advised Jefferson Davis to continue to harass the Union in the Shenandoah to protect Johnson's Army. Garnett would have likely been reinforced by Maj. Gen. Richard Ewell's division, however, in this scenario, Ewell would have taken command rather than been under Jackson. It is at this point that things get interesting. Ewell, while a good general, did not have the command mastery, nor the ability to drive his men at the 30+ miles a day that Jackson did. It is somewhat likely that Ewell would have made several offensive feints before settling in to a good defensive position and letting Gen. Fremont's and Gen. Banks' armies attack him on ground of his choosing.
No matter what the outcome of these battles, this series of movements would have been less immediately costly to the Union and would likely have permitted some, if not all, of Gen. McDowell's army (stationed at Fredricksburg) to move south and reinforce McClellan outside of Richmond. What's more, Ewell would have been unlikely to have been able to reinforce Lee for the planned attack on McClellan's right flank (Battle of Beaver Dam Creek) before McClellan pushed forward with his own attacks.
The ultimate result of this would likely have still been Confederate victory as McClellan technically won most of the battles of the Seven Days but withdrew as though he had been beaten. However, it likely would have been an even bloodier affair as Lee would have had to shift even more troops from the main body to attack the Union right (likely reinforced by McDowell) and the reduced strength in the middle would have given allowed the Union to maul the Confederates even more. Even with McClellan's withdrawal from the Peninsula, the Union would likely have still had two reasonably sized armies in the Shenandoah Valley. McDowell might have been pulled back to Fredricksburg or even Manassas but it still would have left a strong Union presence in Northern Virginia.
With Gen. Pope taking over for McClellan, there is a reasonable chance that he would have had a stronger army than he had historically and Lee's army would have likely been weaker than historically. What's more, historically Gen. Pope's army was heavily harassed by Jackson's army, to the point that Gen. Longstreet was able to outflank him and devastate the Union army at Second Manassas. Pope would have probably still found a way to have been defeated, but the bloody attrition that would have taken place would have likely played out much differently. What's more, there is a reasonable chance that Pope might have been able to win a small victory somewhere in Virginia that would have allowed Lincoln to issue the Emancipation Proclamation a month or so earlier than originally issued on September 22, 1862.
My ultimate theory is that had Jackson died at Kernstown in March 1862, the Confederates would have been able to hold on much as they did, but it would have been a harder grind. So much so, that I would speculate that there would have been a real chance that the Union Army under either Gen. Burnsides or Gen. Hooker would have successfully captured Richmond in 1863, although I imagine that Lee would have found a way to keep the Army of Northern Virginia intact and fighting for upwards of another year.
With the likely defeat of the Confederacy in 1864, Lincoln would have been easily reelected (especially if McClellan was nominated by the Democrats as he was historically). John Wilkes Booth was in high demand as an actor in New England throughout most of 1863, although the opening of Ford's Theater in November 1863 gave him several opportunities to perform in Washington. Booth would have likely tried to go ahead with his plans of either kidnapping or killing Lincoln in 1864, but the high visibility of the upcoming election might have made that difficult. If Booth had succeeded prior to the inauguration, Hannibal Hamlin would have become President.
If Booth had killed Lincoln after the election, the Electoral College would have likely been thrown into chaos with many different candidates jockeying for position. Hamlin had broad support among Northern Radicals and Andrew Johnson was only nominated to replace him as VP to keep the loyalty of Northern Democrats. If the war had been going as well as above, Hamlin might have been kept on the ticket. With Hamlin already installed as President, the Electoral College might have felt it best to keep Hamlin as mode of stability, even if he had been replaced on the ticket by Andrew Johnson. Hamlin and Lincoln were not friends per se but they did work well together, although Hamlin did not regularly attend cabinet meetings (as was the style of the time).
A Hamlin Presidency would likely have been harsher on the South as Hamlin was a staunch abolitionist prior to the war (leading to his defection from the Democratic Party in 1856). Hamlin might have gone ahead and indulged in the hanging of prominent Southern politicians for treason and sticking closer to the Republican line of giving closer to equal treatment of blacks (although probably not fully equal status).
From this we could spin out further about how white-black relations would have evolved in the South and whether Ulysses Grant would have achieved enough fame to propel himself to the Presidency in 1868 or if the Republicans would have stuck with Hamlin (with Grant as VP possibly).
All this (possibly) from a single lucky cannon shot south of Kernstown in March 1862.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Rocking and Blowing (Not in the Good Way)
A 5.9 earthquake struck just outside Louisa, VA a short while ago. Apparently it was very shallow (I've seen anywhere from 3.5 miles deep to 0.5 deep) which caused it to be felt all over the east coast and into Ohio (I did not feel it).
Naturally, as this area does not get a lot of earthquakes, news reports have everyone feeling a bit twitchy. Unfortunately, I don't think it has dawned on too many people yet that the earthquake may have damaged the foundations of some structures (even if only minorly) just before the same area is due to get hammered with 100+ mph winds as Irene is expected to move on shore (probably around North Carolina) on Thursday as either a high category 3 or a weak category 4.
I'd recommend a little praying for that area right now as it's going to get a bit bumpy.
Naturally, as this area does not get a lot of earthquakes, news reports have everyone feeling a bit twitchy. Unfortunately, I don't think it has dawned on too many people yet that the earthquake may have damaged the foundations of some structures (even if only minorly) just before the same area is due to get hammered with 100+ mph winds as Irene is expected to move on shore (probably around North Carolina) on Thursday as either a high category 3 or a weak category 4.
I'd recommend a little praying for that area right now as it's going to get a bit bumpy.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Mt. Etna Beachgoing
I'm sure the people of Italy are used to this, but I would just find it very unnerving to play on a beach while volcanic ash vents behind me.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Wisconsin Recalls
Last night was the second of three recall elections taking place as fallout from the Democrat Senate flight from Wisconsin. A total of nine recall contests are being held. The Democrats held on to the first seat a few weeks ago (district 30) (mostly due to the ineptitude of the Republican candidate).
Last night was the contest against the six Republican incumbents (districts 2, 8, 10, 14, 18, and 32). Republicans held 4 and lost 2 (18 and 32). This means that no matter what happens next week, when the two Democratic incumbents are up, the Republicans will still control the Senate (17/16).
What's more, race handicappers suspect that there is a good chance that one of the two Democrats (Jim Holperin - district 12) will go down as his district is a more natural Republican district (much like 32 is a much more natural Democrat district). The other one (district 22) is a better shot for Democratic retention.
Taken as a whole, this is a somewhat disappointing result for the Democrats. The teacher's union and other outside union forces poured a lot of money into these races and had hoped to at least gain control of the Senate. This would have been viewed as acceptance of the Democrats tactic of leaving the state as a form of protest and given them momentum towards recalling Governor Walker; to say nothing of assuring that the state stays blue in 2012. Now, they are looking at about $30 million spent to narrow the Senate to 18-15 (when they probably would have taken districts 18 and 32 in the next election anyway) and have galvanized the grass roots Republicans.
Still, much could change over the next few months and I wouldn't go relying on Wisconsin in any red state calculations by a long shot if I were the Republican presidential candidate.
Last night was the contest against the six Republican incumbents (districts 2, 8, 10, 14, 18, and 32). Republicans held 4 and lost 2 (18 and 32). This means that no matter what happens next week, when the two Democratic incumbents are up, the Republicans will still control the Senate (17/16).
What's more, race handicappers suspect that there is a good chance that one of the two Democrats (Jim Holperin - district 12) will go down as his district is a more natural Republican district (much like 32 is a much more natural Democrat district). The other one (district 22) is a better shot for Democratic retention.
Taken as a whole, this is a somewhat disappointing result for the Democrats. The teacher's union and other outside union forces poured a lot of money into these races and had hoped to at least gain control of the Senate. This would have been viewed as acceptance of the Democrats tactic of leaving the state as a form of protest and given them momentum towards recalling Governor Walker; to say nothing of assuring that the state stays blue in 2012. Now, they are looking at about $30 million spent to narrow the Senate to 18-15 (when they probably would have taken districts 18 and 32 in the next election anyway) and have galvanized the grass roots Republicans.
Still, much could change over the next few months and I wouldn't go relying on Wisconsin in any red state calculations by a long shot if I were the Republican presidential candidate.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
How to Stimulate an Economy
Ok people. A quick lesson.
Low taxes (producing low prices) = economic resurgence
High taxes (producing high prices) = stagnant economy
Example
BTW, for those crying about the lost tax revenue to the government, those taxes are easily made up in the large surge of profits the companies made that day (and there was no corporate tax holiday).
"We've made more today than we have made in this whole month"
Low taxes (producing low prices) = economic resurgence
High taxes (producing high prices) = stagnant economy
Example
BTW, for those crying about the lost tax revenue to the government, those taxes are easily made up in the large surge of profits the companies made that day (and there was no corporate tax holiday).
"We've made more today than we have made in this whole month"
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
September List
September is shaping up to be an interesting month. Here in the US, we'll likely have the remaining holdouts decide if they want to throw their hats in the Presidential ring (Perry, Palin, and possibly Giuliani). We'll move out of the last of the straw polls and gear up for the Iowa caucus in January.
Meanwhile, the UN is going to vote to recognize Palestine as a sovereign nation (around Sept. 21). The Palestinians are now organizing themselves for large scale marches coinciding with the votes. Although they claim that they will be peaceful, history tells us that some violent actions will probably emerge out of these.
On the astronomical front, Comet Elenin will be moving directly in line between the Earth and the Sun around Sept. 26. Elenin is too small to create anything like a true eclipse, but it is possible that the debris cloud could be large enough to have some dimming effects for a day or so, to say nothing of the potential meteor showers that we might be able to see by being in the comet's tail. That could be cool.
And on the personal front, I've got a major design review that we won't be ready for on the 15th. That will cause a bit of consternation and bellyaching but hopefully nothing worse than that. Still, I'll be quite glad when that thing is over. There's very little worse than being assigned to a project with too little resources in a tight span of time. It gives one a sense of doom and failure that I don't particularly like.
Meanwhile, the UN is going to vote to recognize Palestine as a sovereign nation (around Sept. 21). The Palestinians are now organizing themselves for large scale marches coinciding with the votes. Although they claim that they will be peaceful, history tells us that some violent actions will probably emerge out of these.
On the astronomical front, Comet Elenin will be moving directly in line between the Earth and the Sun around Sept. 26. Elenin is too small to create anything like a true eclipse, but it is possible that the debris cloud could be large enough to have some dimming effects for a day or so, to say nothing of the potential meteor showers that we might be able to see by being in the comet's tail. That could be cool.
And on the personal front, I've got a major design review that we won't be ready for on the 15th. That will cause a bit of consternation and bellyaching but hopefully nothing worse than that. Still, I'll be quite glad when that thing is over. There's very little worse than being assigned to a project with too little resources in a tight span of time. It gives one a sense of doom and failure that I don't particularly like.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Three Comets
I posted earlier about Comet Elenin and it's approach in late September/early October. But there are two other comets that will be passing though around the same time.
Comet Honda is passing through now and will be closest to Earth (0.0603 AU, 5.6 million miles) on August 15.
Comet Levy is still out beyond Mars but will get as close as 0.0484 AU (4.5 million miles) on January 7, 2012.
I'm hopeful that all three of these comets will be bright enough to get a good look at as I can't recall an instance where there were three close passes within a six month time frame.
Comet Honda is passing through now and will be closest to Earth (0.0603 AU, 5.6 million miles) on August 15.
Comet Levy is still out beyond Mars but will get as close as 0.0484 AU (4.5 million miles) on January 7, 2012.
I'm hopeful that all three of these comets will be bright enough to get a good look at as I can't recall an instance where there were three close passes within a six month time frame.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
How Political Commercials Are Done
A fellow who goes by Jazz Shaw, has postulated a commercial based on a possible outcome of the debt ceiling impasse.
When the debt limit is reached, the Federal Government will no longer be able to spend more than it takes in. Without an official budget, there is no direct allocation of funds from the House, so the decision as to who gets what percentage of their funds is left to Treasury. So it is entirely within belief that Treasury would make small cuts here and there and all of a sudden, people can't get what they've been used to getting. That leads to commercials such as this one:
Effective, no?
Of course, there's also the potential crash of the bond market and a potential credit crisis to deal with. So we shall just have to see if either side blinks or if we actually go to this option.
When the debt limit is reached, the Federal Government will no longer be able to spend more than it takes in. Without an official budget, there is no direct allocation of funds from the House, so the decision as to who gets what percentage of their funds is left to Treasury. So it is entirely within belief that Treasury would make small cuts here and there and all of a sudden, people can't get what they've been used to getting. That leads to commercials such as this one:
Effective, no?
Of course, there's also the potential crash of the bond market and a potential credit crisis to deal with. So we shall just have to see if either side blinks or if we actually go to this option.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Virus Public Service Poster
I don't know why, but I've always enjoyed the artwork of the public service posters from the '20s through the '40s. Maybe it's the art deco styling.
Anyway, one of the contributors to TeeFury created a public service poster for defending against computer viruses. I like it.
Anyway, one of the contributors to TeeFury created a public service poster for defending against computer viruses. I like it.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
Huge Saturn Storm
Cassini has captured several images of a huge storm that has formed on Saturn. It apparently started as a spot storm around the end of March, but is spreading into a ring around the northern hemisphere of the planet. Quite interesting to look at.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Oh $hit!
A 61,000 acre wildfire is about 50 ft away from the first buildings of the Los Alamos Nuclear facility. The braintrust that runs this facility has about 20,000 barrels of nuclear waste on site that are contained in tent buildings rather than the proper concrete bunker buildings (like was built at Yucca Mountain). If you look at the aerial photos, the tents are nearly surrounded by woods. If this isn't an Oh $hit moment, I don't know what is.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Ocean Reclamation of Japan
Through the twentieth century, Japan created more and more land for itself by diking areas of the ocean and then draining the area. It would seem that the 9.0 earthquake back in March has allowed the ocean to start taking back what was once hers. These videos were all taken in April when the ground was still very unsettled.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Wet and Wild Weather
Weather has been nuts here in the US lately. I did a little digging and found some information that gives a real visual on how off things are this year.
Yesterday (June 23) the city of Cincinnati (recorded at CVG) officially topped the average annual rainfall total and we still have six more months to go. The official annual average is 39.57 inches. We are now at 40.32 inches. I can't even imagine what the numbers must be like out West in the Plains:
The next chart is a track of US tornadoes since 1950. There is a small fault to this chart as the ability to track and verify separate tornadoes wasn't that good until about 20-30 years ago. Still, the past few years are still good and you can see the same effect that we saw in the rainfall totals. We are already ahead of last year's total and about 500 tornadoes behind the record year of 2004. That might seem like a lot but it should be noted that hurricanes and their leftover low pressure systems will spawn a number of tornadoes even though "tornado season" is essentially over:
According to NOAA, we are currently tracking over 200 tornadoes ahead of the high end curve of the prediction charts. If that number holds, we'll end the year with nearly 2,100 tornadoes in the US.
Lastly, there are earthquakes. This data from USGS goes up to June 22 and only covers major quakes (5.0+) but it's still impressive:
Thankfully we are roughly in line with average on the 7.0-7.9 and 8.0+ as we have had 8 and 1 respectively so far this year. The 5.0-5.9 and 6.0-6.9 are well above average though. Some of this is directly due to the Japan quake and earthquake accumulation is distinctly not linear. Still it's rather disconcerting to see that our earthquake totals for the first six months are already above the total numbers for 2001-2003. It seems highly likely that we will top the 2007 total of 2,270. Were the Earth to get another large quake (and with the volcano activity, that seems possible), it would push things well past that number and possibly close to the 3,000 range.
Just one item would be enough for one to sit up and take notice, but all three grab one and shake them somewhat. There is probably some sort of cause but whether that is solar actively or magnetic and gravitational shifts in the solar system, I couldn't say. Either way, let's hope this ride slows down before it gets any bumpier.
Yesterday (June 23) the city of Cincinnati (recorded at CVG) officially topped the average annual rainfall total and we still have six more months to go. The official annual average is 39.57 inches. We are now at 40.32 inches. I can't even imagine what the numbers must be like out West in the Plains:
The next chart is a track of US tornadoes since 1950. There is a small fault to this chart as the ability to track and verify separate tornadoes wasn't that good until about 20-30 years ago. Still, the past few years are still good and you can see the same effect that we saw in the rainfall totals. We are already ahead of last year's total and about 500 tornadoes behind the record year of 2004. That might seem like a lot but it should be noted that hurricanes and their leftover low pressure systems will spawn a number of tornadoes even though "tornado season" is essentially over:
According to NOAA, we are currently tracking over 200 tornadoes ahead of the high end curve of the prediction charts. If that number holds, we'll end the year with nearly 2,100 tornadoes in the US.
Lastly, there are earthquakes. This data from USGS goes up to June 22 and only covers major quakes (5.0+) but it's still impressive:
Thankfully we are roughly in line with average on the 7.0-7.9 and 8.0+ as we have had 8 and 1 respectively so far this year. The 5.0-5.9 and 6.0-6.9 are well above average though. Some of this is directly due to the Japan quake and earthquake accumulation is distinctly not linear. Still it's rather disconcerting to see that our earthquake totals for the first six months are already above the total numbers for 2001-2003. It seems highly likely that we will top the 2007 total of 2,270. Were the Earth to get another large quake (and with the volcano activity, that seems possible), it would push things well past that number and possibly close to the 3,000 range.
Just one item would be enough for one to sit up and take notice, but all three grab one and shake them somewhat. There is probably some sort of cause but whether that is solar actively or magnetic and gravitational shifts in the solar system, I couldn't say. Either way, let's hope this ride slows down before it gets any bumpier.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Bad Weather News
It is snowing in Colorado. That is somewhat weird given that today is the first day of summer.
But the truly bad part is that it is a reminder that the Rocky Mountain snow pack is still very thick and will continue to melt and pour into the Missouri and Colorado Rivers.
In Nebraska, there are two nuclear power plants, Ft. Calhoun and Cooper, that are in significant danger of being overtaken by the flood waters. Ft. Calhoun was taken off-line for maintenance in April, but it still has spent fuel rods in a cooling pool located on site. It is currently below the flood line, but is being protected by a rubber wall and a wall of sandbags. This has the effect of making it look like an island fortress.
Cooper is still active but the waters are still rising around it as well. If either or both of these plants are inundated, it could dump a lot of nuclear waste material into the Missouri River, which will then flow into the Mississippi and then into the Gulf.
This is some bad juju that bears watching.
But the truly bad part is that it is a reminder that the Rocky Mountain snow pack is still very thick and will continue to melt and pour into the Missouri and Colorado Rivers.
In Nebraska, there are two nuclear power plants, Ft. Calhoun and Cooper, that are in significant danger of being overtaken by the flood waters. Ft. Calhoun was taken off-line for maintenance in April, but it still has spent fuel rods in a cooling pool located on site. It is currently below the flood line, but is being protected by a rubber wall and a wall of sandbags. This has the effect of making it look like an island fortress.
Cooper is still active but the waters are still rising around it as well. If either or both of these plants are inundated, it could dump a lot of nuclear waste material into the Missouri River, which will then flow into the Mississippi and then into the Gulf.
This is some bad juju that bears watching.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Total Lunar Eclipse Tomorrow
Tomorrow there is going to be a total lunar eclipse that will be visible on six of the seven continents. Only us in North America will miss out. The eclipse will start around 12:30 PM EDT and will last until 6 PM EDT. The eclipse will hit its apex right around 3:15 PM EDT.
The bullseye of the eclipse will be in the Indian Ocean but totality will be all over India, the Middle East and most of Africa. The view dies out about halfway across the Pacific on the east side and just before it hits the Caribbean on the west side.
Hopefully there will be some cool pictures of this available on Thursday.
The bullseye of the eclipse will be in the Indian Ocean but totality will be all over India, the Middle East and most of Africa. The view dies out about halfway across the Pacific on the east side and just before it hits the Caribbean on the west side.
Hopefully there will be some cool pictures of this available on Thursday.
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
Very Early Republican Polling
You might not know it unless you were paying very close attention, but there are now eight officially declared candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination. These official eight are former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former MN Governor Tim Pawlenty, former MA Governor Mitt Romney, former PA Senator Rick Santorum, TX Representative Ron Paul, former NM Governor Gary Johnson, and gay-rights activist Fred Karger.
Just after this lot you have the "preparing to declare themselves" crowd. These include MN Representative Michele Bachmann, former UT governor Jon Huntsman, and former LA Governor Buddy Roemer.
In the third pack you have people that have talked about running but have not taken any of the formal steps. These would include former AK Governor Sarah Palin, TX Governor Rick Perry, former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former UN Ambassador John Bolton.
Rounding out the discussion are those who other people wish would get into the Presidential race. These include former FL Governor Jeb Bush, NJ Governor Chris Christie, WI Representative Paul Ryan, and FL Senator Marco Rubio.
Any polls taken at this time would be essentially useless as we are 17 months from the election. That doesn't stop them though. Over the past month, Mr. Romney has polled somewhat well (cracking 20% in the recent ABC poll). This has made him the "front runner" for the time being. Most other candidates well down the list as they typically are all jockeying for the same voters. The lone immediate challenger to Mr. Romney in the recent spat of polls appears to be Ms. Palin. She appears to generally be around 2-4 points behind Mr. Romney but that's still a reasonable distance above the noise that makes up the other candidate's polling numbers.
Because of the swirl of gamesmanship going on between the states (especially Florida), it is still unclear when the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primaries will be (although early to mid-January seems likely). The firming of these dates will set the official deadline for any candidates who wish to declare themselves. I would personally expect to see the field fully set by late August or early September just because of the necessity of getting ground troops in to Iowa and New Hampshire. Once the field is fully set, we should see three or four candidates rise up to become the official gladiators while everyone else fades into the background.
Just after this lot you have the "preparing to declare themselves" crowd. These include MN Representative Michele Bachmann, former UT governor Jon Huntsman, and former LA Governor Buddy Roemer.
In the third pack you have people that have talked about running but have not taken any of the formal steps. These would include former AK Governor Sarah Palin, TX Governor Rick Perry, former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former UN Ambassador John Bolton.
Rounding out the discussion are those who other people wish would get into the Presidential race. These include former FL Governor Jeb Bush, NJ Governor Chris Christie, WI Representative Paul Ryan, and FL Senator Marco Rubio.
Any polls taken at this time would be essentially useless as we are 17 months from the election. That doesn't stop them though. Over the past month, Mr. Romney has polled somewhat well (cracking 20% in the recent ABC poll). This has made him the "front runner" for the time being. Most other candidates well down the list as they typically are all jockeying for the same voters. The lone immediate challenger to Mr. Romney in the recent spat of polls appears to be Ms. Palin. She appears to generally be around 2-4 points behind Mr. Romney but that's still a reasonable distance above the noise that makes up the other candidate's polling numbers.
Because of the swirl of gamesmanship going on between the states (especially Florida), it is still unclear when the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primaries will be (although early to mid-January seems likely). The firming of these dates will set the official deadline for any candidates who wish to declare themselves. I would personally expect to see the field fully set by late August or early September just because of the necessity of getting ground troops in to Iowa and New Hampshire. Once the field is fully set, we should see three or four candidates rise up to become the official gladiators while everyone else fades into the background.
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Movin' Trash
This is one of Boy X's favorite songs from the Elmo's Green Thumb CD. It's fun to listen to him sing along if you start him.
A: We're movin' trash...
X: move it, move it. Dig it
A: We're movin' trash...
X: move it, move it. Dig it
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Media Insanity
The Bible says that in the last days there will be "raging insanity" (2 Timothy 3:1). I'm sure he didn't mean it quite like this, but Paul could very easily have been talking about our media for the past three days.
For those in the dark, Ms. Palin was invited to speak at the Raging Thunder rally in DC on the Sunday before Memorial Day. She accepted and had her RV painted up in a very flashy populist mode. When she announced that she had accepted the invitation, she noted that she and the family would be seeing some sites on their way up the eastern seaboard while meandering up to New Hampshire.
All of this apparently has set the media's hair on fire. Dozens of reporters have been shadowing this bus tour and acting quite pissy that she has not given them one-on-one access nor given them an itinerary of where she is going. All this despite the fact that (a) she is technically not a declared candidate for anything and (b) still employed by Fox News and might be viewed as in breach of contract if she consulted with other media outlets. Yet, all we are missing the helicopter shots and we would be having the white Bronco chase all over again.
While Ms. Palin has not declared yet, it would seem that she is going to throw her hat in the ring. She is driving to New Hampshire, she will be driving to Iowa later this month, and it was noted today that she will be going to South Carolina after that. All that's missing is a trip to Nevada and she will have hit the four early boys of the Presidential season, so it does not take a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen in the near future.
Still, her eventual getting into the race doesn't explain the media frenzy that going on. Whether you like her, love her, or hate her, it is rather disquieting to see the media act like a pack of feral dogs after a bone for an early campaign tour/publicity event. When CNN acts more like TMZ, something strange is definitely afoot.
For those in the dark, Ms. Palin was invited to speak at the Raging Thunder rally in DC on the Sunday before Memorial Day. She accepted and had her RV painted up in a very flashy populist mode. When she announced that she had accepted the invitation, she noted that she and the family would be seeing some sites on their way up the eastern seaboard while meandering up to New Hampshire.
All of this apparently has set the media's hair on fire. Dozens of reporters have been shadowing this bus tour and acting quite pissy that she has not given them one-on-one access nor given them an itinerary of where she is going. All this despite the fact that (a) she is technically not a declared candidate for anything and (b) still employed by Fox News and might be viewed as in breach of contract if she consulted with other media outlets. Yet, all we are missing the helicopter shots and we would be having the white Bronco chase all over again.
While Ms. Palin has not declared yet, it would seem that she is going to throw her hat in the ring. She is driving to New Hampshire, she will be driving to Iowa later this month, and it was noted today that she will be going to South Carolina after that. All that's missing is a trip to Nevada and she will have hit the four early boys of the Presidential season, so it does not take a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen in the near future.
Still, her eventual getting into the race doesn't explain the media frenzy that going on. Whether you like her, love her, or hate her, it is rather disquieting to see the media act like a pack of feral dogs after a bone for an early campaign tour/publicity event. When CNN acts more like TMZ, something strange is definitely afoot.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Ohio Population Shift
The recent election in NY made me take a quick look to see when the new Congressional districts have to be in place in Ohio (Dec. 7). When I was looking, I found this little graphic that confirms my suspicions that the five remaining Democrats will be under fire:
From what I have heard, it is almost a given that OH-10 will be blown away, most of it combined with OH-11 I would imagine. After that, it looks as though OH-9 or OH-17 will be on the chopping block. OH-13 is the only other Democrat district and that one actually increased by 18,000 people.
If it were me, I'd get rid of OH-17. It lost 30,000 people and could easily be split four ways into OH-6, OH-13, OH-14, and OH-16.
The other little bugaboo is how to reapportion the rest of Ohio. The Columbus area showed dramatic growth and could (in theory) be split into four districts (combined OH-7, OH-12, and OH-15 grew by over 225,000 people). If they take that tack, one then looks at the possibility of OH-9 being absorbed between OH-5, OH-13 and OH-16 as well. Likely, the new Columbus district would create a Democrat safe harbor at the core and surround it with three Republican strongholds, unless they can find a way to gerrymander it to a part of a heavily Republican x-urb.
As such, I would say that the only safe Democrats are Marcia Fudge (OH-11) and Betty Sutton (OH-13)
From what I have heard, it is almost a given that OH-10 will be blown away, most of it combined with OH-11 I would imagine. After that, it looks as though OH-9 or OH-17 will be on the chopping block. OH-13 is the only other Democrat district and that one actually increased by 18,000 people.
If it were me, I'd get rid of OH-17. It lost 30,000 people and could easily be split four ways into OH-6, OH-13, OH-14, and OH-16.
The other little bugaboo is how to reapportion the rest of Ohio. The Columbus area showed dramatic growth and could (in theory) be split into four districts (combined OH-7, OH-12, and OH-15 grew by over 225,000 people). If they take that tack, one then looks at the possibility of OH-9 being absorbed between OH-5, OH-13 and OH-16 as well. Likely, the new Columbus district would create a Democrat safe harbor at the core and surround it with three Republican strongholds, unless they can find a way to gerrymander it to a part of a heavily Republican x-urb.
As such, I would say that the only safe Democrats are Marcia Fudge (OH-11) and Betty Sutton (OH-13)
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
2011 NY-26 Special
Flying way below the radar today is a special election in NY to fill a vacancy in NY-26. That's in Western NY out in the more rural areas before you come to Buffalo and Niagra. The main candidates are Republican Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul. It's a nominally Republican district but there are a couple of wrinkles that are making this one interesting.
First, it's a special election so turnout will be low and that always throws things off.
Second, there is a third-party candidate (Jack Davis) who has registered as a "Tea Party", despite his previous runs for various offices under the Democrat label. Mr. Davis has been drawing extra votes, although it's not quite clear as to whether he has been drawing more from the right or the left. Either way, he's playing spoiler to someone and could give Independents enough of an outlet to let it be a dead draw between registered Republican and Democrats that show up.
Polls in NY generally close around 9 PM but it will probably be several hours before enough votes are tallied to get an idea of who won.
*UPDATE*
Ms. Hochul (D) defeats Ms. Corwin (R). Ms. Corwin conceded relatively early. Apparently, she made some very bad assumptions about this campaign.
First, it's a special election so turnout will be low and that always throws things off.
Second, there is a third-party candidate (Jack Davis) who has registered as a "Tea Party", despite his previous runs for various offices under the Democrat label. Mr. Davis has been drawing extra votes, although it's not quite clear as to whether he has been drawing more from the right or the left. Either way, he's playing spoiler to someone and could give Independents enough of an outlet to let it be a dead draw between registered Republican and Democrats that show up.
Polls in NY generally close around 9 PM but it will probably be several hours before enough votes are tallied to get an idea of who won.
*UPDATE*
Ms. Hochul (D) defeats Ms. Corwin (R). Ms. Corwin conceded relatively early. Apparently, she made some very bad assumptions about this campaign.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Destruction then Beauty
Joplin, MO was nearly destroyed in a major tornado outbreak yesterday. But in the curious way that weather works, it was followed by great beauty:
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
80's Themes Again
Of course, now that I've thought about the 80's, I have to repost the three best themes of the 80's:
#3 - Transformers:
#2 - He-Man:
And yes, He-Man was gay.
#1 - GI-Joe (Movie):
Of course, it goes without saying that the opening theme and fight sequence was about the only good thing that came from the GI Joe Movie. If they had just done 90 minutes of this, it would have been a much better movie. That or just make the whole movie about Baroness and Destro. That would have worked too.
#3 - Transformers:
#2 - He-Man:
And yes, He-Man was gay.
#1 - GI-Joe (Movie):
Of course, it goes without saying that the opening theme and fight sequence was about the only good thing that came from the GI Joe Movie. If they had just done 90 minutes of this, it would have been a much better movie. That or just make the whole movie about Baroness and Destro. That would have worked too.
Commercials
Mrs. X and I were talking last night about old commercials and celebrities (before they were famous) who starred in them. That got me thinking about some old commercials that I remember. My view on commercials is a little stilted since the Armed Forces Network aired PSAs instead of product advertisements during the commercial breaks of shows. As such, the commercials I remember I saw over and over again on TV that had been recorded in the States and shipped to us in Japan.
Here's a few that were memorable and I've been able to find:
Peter Pan Peanut Butter
Donkey Kong Jr. Cereal:
Kentucky Fried Chicken (Hot Deal):
McDonald's (First Day):
There's a couple of others that stick in my mind but I can't find. One was a variation on the Hubba Bubba Gum Fighter (it probably didn't get broadcast much because of a somewhat caricature Native American portrayal). Another was a McDonald's commercial where a more sinister looking Hamburgler steals the hamburger pals and Ronald has to rescue them. Also a singing HI-C ad.
Ahhh... good times.
Here's a few that were memorable and I've been able to find:
Peter Pan Peanut Butter
Donkey Kong Jr. Cereal:
Kentucky Fried Chicken (Hot Deal):
McDonald's (First Day):
There's a couple of others that stick in my mind but I can't find. One was a variation on the Hubba Bubba Gum Fighter (it probably didn't get broadcast much because of a somewhat caricature Native American portrayal). Another was a McDonald's commercial where a more sinister looking Hamburgler steals the hamburger pals and Ronald has to rescue them. Also a singing HI-C ad.
Ahhh... good times.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Six-Planet Alignment
This is cool. I've not been able to see it properly because of how early the sun is coming up now, but this should give you an idea of what's happening. This is the alignment from this morning:
The red line that the planets seem to be following is the ecliptic (path of the sun) line while the blue line is the path of the moon. Right now Mars, Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter are all clustered in the heart of Pisces while Uranus is on the outer edge of it. Neptune is in between Aquarius and Capricorn while Pluto is just above Sagittarius and below Scutum.
Only Saturn is missing as it is hanging out in Virgo which would be somewhere in the Pacific at this time (being three constellations ahead of Sagittarius).
The red line that the planets seem to be following is the ecliptic (path of the sun) line while the blue line is the path of the moon. Right now Mars, Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter are all clustered in the heart of Pisces while Uranus is on the outer edge of it. Neptune is in between Aquarius and Capricorn while Pluto is just above Sagittarius and below Scutum.
Only Saturn is missing as it is hanging out in Virgo which would be somewhere in the Pacific at this time (being three constellations ahead of Sagittarius).
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Marvel Situation Room Errors
Someone doctored the situation room photo from the Osama bin Laden operation to make the various characters into Marvel comic book heroes.
There's just one small problem. Most of the characters are not Marvel. Flash, Superman, Batman, Green Lantern, Spectre, Catwoman, Wonder Woman, and the Martian Manhunter were all created by DC Comics. Spawn is a product of Image Comics. In fact, everyone seated at the table is a member of the Justice League, which is comprised entirely of DC Comics characters. Captain America and Spiderman are the only actual Marvel characters there.
Of course, we won't even get into the irony of Mr. Obama as Captain America, especially as one would have expected him to be Superman. Mr. Biden as Flash is just funny.
Others might prefer the Royal Wedding Edition.
There's just one small problem. Most of the characters are not Marvel. Flash, Superman, Batman, Green Lantern, Spectre, Catwoman, Wonder Woman, and the Martian Manhunter were all created by DC Comics. Spawn is a product of Image Comics. In fact, everyone seated at the table is a member of the Justice League, which is comprised entirely of DC Comics characters. Captain America and Spiderman are the only actual Marvel characters there.
Of course, we won't even get into the irony of Mr. Obama as Captain America, especially as one would have expected him to be Superman. Mr. Biden as Flash is just funny.
Others might prefer the Royal Wedding Edition.
Monday, May 09, 2011
Dire Flooding
Many people are critical of those who would build their houses in known flood plains. But this is just insane:
Cairo, IL has crested at 61.8 feet (record). Memphis will crest at 48.0' tomorrow (second highest). At one point, tributaries to the Mississippi were flowing backwards because of the water volume. Definately some bad times going on.
Cairo, IL has crested at 61.8 feet (record). Memphis will crest at 48.0' tomorrow (second highest). At one point, tributaries to the Mississippi were flowing backwards because of the water volume. Definately some bad times going on.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Crisis
It is often said that those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it. What's said less often is that knowledge of history can give you insight into the future. Not that that's always comforting. The following letter was written by Lord Thomas Macaulay to Henry Randall (President Jefferson's biographer) in the 1850's. It is remarkably accurate as to how things evolved over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although we must point out that Lord Macaulay would have been influenced in his views by the rise of Marxism.
"I have long been convinced that institutions purely democratic must sooner or later destroy liberty or civilization, or both. You may think that your country enjoys an exemption from these evils. I will frankly own to you that I am of a very different opinion. Your fate I believe to be settled, though it is deferred by a physical cause. As long as you have a boundless extent of fertile and unoccupied land, your laboring population will be far more at ease than is the laboring population of the old world, and while that is the case the Jefferson politics may continue to exist without any fatal calamity. But the time will come when wages will be as low and will fluctuate as much with you as with us. You will have your Manchesters and your Birminghams, and in these Manchesters and Birminghams hundreds of thousands of artisans will assuredly be out of work. Then your institutions will be brought to the test. Distress everywhere makes the laborer mutinous and discontented, and incline him to listen to agitators who tell him that it is a monstrous iniquity that one man should have a million while another cannot get a full meal.
"I have seen England pass through three or four such critical seasons as I have described; through such seasons the United States will have to pass in the course of the next century, if not of this. How will you pass through them? I heartily wish you a good deliverance. But my reason and my wishes are at war, and one cannot help foreboding the worst.
"The day will come when in the State of New York, a multitude of people, none of whom has had more than half a breakfast or expects to have more than half a dinner, will choose a legislature. On one side is a statesman teaching patience, respect for the vested rights, strict observance of public faith. On the other is a demagogue, ranting at the tyranny of capitalists and usurists, and asking why anybody should be permitted to drink champagne and ride in a carriage while thousands of honest people are in want of necessities. Which of these candidates is likely to be preferred by a working-man who hears his children cry for bread?
"I seriously apprehend that you will, in some such season of adversity as I have described, do things which will prevent prosperity from returning. There will be, I fear, spoliation. The spoliation will increase the distress. The distress will produce fresh spoliation. There is nothing to stop you. Your constitution is all sail and no anchor.
"As I said before, when society has entered on this downward progress, either civilisation or liberty must perish. Either some Caesar or Napoleon will seize the reins of government with a strong hand, and your republic will be as fearfully plundered and laid to waste by the barbarians in the twentieth century as the Roman Empire was in the fifth, with the difference that the Huns and Vandals who ravaged the Roman empire came from without; and that your Huns and Vandals will have been engendered within your own country by your own institutions."
"I have long been convinced that institutions purely democratic must sooner or later destroy liberty or civilization, or both. You may think that your country enjoys an exemption from these evils. I will frankly own to you that I am of a very different opinion. Your fate I believe to be settled, though it is deferred by a physical cause. As long as you have a boundless extent of fertile and unoccupied land, your laboring population will be far more at ease than is the laboring population of the old world, and while that is the case the Jefferson politics may continue to exist without any fatal calamity. But the time will come when wages will be as low and will fluctuate as much with you as with us. You will have your Manchesters and your Birminghams, and in these Manchesters and Birminghams hundreds of thousands of artisans will assuredly be out of work. Then your institutions will be brought to the test. Distress everywhere makes the laborer mutinous and discontented, and incline him to listen to agitators who tell him that it is a monstrous iniquity that one man should have a million while another cannot get a full meal.
"I have seen England pass through three or four such critical seasons as I have described; through such seasons the United States will have to pass in the course of the next century, if not of this. How will you pass through them? I heartily wish you a good deliverance. But my reason and my wishes are at war, and one cannot help foreboding the worst.
"The day will come when in the State of New York, a multitude of people, none of whom has had more than half a breakfast or expects to have more than half a dinner, will choose a legislature. On one side is a statesman teaching patience, respect for the vested rights, strict observance of public faith. On the other is a demagogue, ranting at the tyranny of capitalists and usurists, and asking why anybody should be permitted to drink champagne and ride in a carriage while thousands of honest people are in want of necessities. Which of these candidates is likely to be preferred by a working-man who hears his children cry for bread?
"I seriously apprehend that you will, in some such season of adversity as I have described, do things which will prevent prosperity from returning. There will be, I fear, spoliation. The spoliation will increase the distress. The distress will produce fresh spoliation. There is nothing to stop you. Your constitution is all sail and no anchor.
"As I said before, when society has entered on this downward progress, either civilisation or liberty must perish. Either some Caesar or Napoleon will seize the reins of government with a strong hand, and your republic will be as fearfully plundered and laid to waste by the barbarians in the twentieth century as the Roman Empire was in the fifth, with the difference that the Huns and Vandals who ravaged the Roman empire came from without; and that your Huns and Vandals will have been engendered within your own country by your own institutions."
Monday, May 02, 2011
Yay us
Much remains but I would still like to dedicate this little bit to the removal of Mr. Bin Laden
Monday, April 25, 2011
Modernizing Movies
TRON debuted back in 1982 with a bit of a lackluster ad campaign. The movie ended up doing poorly but became a significant nerd cult hit with the VHS release (enough to spawn a sequal nearly 30 years later).
However, I would imagine that if you took someone who had never seen or heard of TRON but was interested in action movies and showed them this modern style trailer of it, you could probably get them interested enough to see it.
Now, contrast that with the original trailer from 1982:
Ah, how fickle the viewing public is.
However, I would imagine that if you took someone who had never seen or heard of TRON but was interested in action movies and showed them this modern style trailer of it, you could probably get them interested enough to see it.
Now, contrast that with the original trailer from 1982:
Ah, how fickle the viewing public is.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
150 Years Ago Today...
Confederate General Pierre Gustave Toutant Beauregard ordered his batteries in Charleston, SC to open fire on Ft. Sumter, formally initiating the Civil War. Major Robert Anderson surrendered the fort the next day.
One of the greatest ironies is that the opening battle of the Civil War ended with the only casulty being a Confederate horse. The first official casualties of the war, Union Privates Daniel Hough and Edward Gallway, were killed when an ammunition dump blew up from a stray spark during a gun salute of the American flag just prior to the Union men leaving the fort.
One of the greatest ironies is that the opening battle of the Civil War ended with the only casulty being a Confederate horse. The first official casualties of the war, Union Privates Daniel Hough and Edward Gallway, were killed when an ammunition dump blew up from a stray spark during a gun salute of the American flag just prior to the Union men leaving the fort.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Go Ahead. Make My Day.
The Arab league, acting at the request of Hamas, is petitioning the UN to impose a "No-Fly" zone over Gaza. Hamas is requesting this as they are currently getting the crap kicked out of them by Israeli air-strikes after they tried to murder children by launching an anti-tank missle at a school bus.
The resolution would almost certainly get vetoed by the US, but there is a part of me that wishes it would pass and then the UN would task the Arab League withe enforcing the "No-Fly" Zone. That would give the Israelis a nice excuse to reduce the Arab air-force to scrap metal, which they would do easily. The Arabs still haven't recovered from the destruction of their air forces in the 1967 Six Day War.
This should generate a proper Magnum Force moment:
The resolution would almost certainly get vetoed by the US, but there is a part of me that wishes it would pass and then the UN would task the Arab League withe enforcing the "No-Fly" Zone. That would give the Israelis a nice excuse to reduce the Arab air-force to scrap metal, which they would do easily. The Arabs still haven't recovered from the destruction of their air forces in the 1967 Six Day War.
This should generate a proper Magnum Force moment:
Friday, April 08, 2011
Oops... Did I Do That?
A minor political error was noted yesterday in Wisconsin. On Wednesday, liberal candidate for supreme court justice Joanne Kloppenburg declared victory with a 204 vote margin over conservative sitting justice David Prosser. Yesterday, Waukesha County sheepishly announced that a computer error failed to send election results from the city of Brookfield (~14,000 votes). The net effect of this is that Mr. Prosser will pick up over 7,000 votes, vaulting him into the lead.
Naturally, there will be allegations of voter fraud (bags of votes found in the trunks of cars?) but apparently, the paper trail seems legitimate. The primary culprit seems to be an antiquated computer and the head of elections' refusal to update a system she was comfortable with. Bet she updates now.
Naturally, there will be allegations of voter fraud (bags of votes found in the trunks of cars?) but apparently, the paper trail seems legitimate. The primary culprit seems to be an antiquated computer and the head of elections' refusal to update a system she was comfortable with. Bet she updates now.
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
More Fun in Wisconsin
Yesterday, an election was held for a position on the state Supreme Court. Current Justice David Prosser (conservative) was being challenged by JoAnne Kloppenburg (liberal). As of this writing, Kloppenburg was leading by 336 votes out of 1.5 million cast with all but one precincts reporting. That precinct is in Jefferson County (won by Mr. Prosser) so Ms. Kloppenburg's lead will be reduced by some margin, although it is unlikely to be overcome. Needless to say, this will go to a recount as there are accusations of fraud on both sides. 
Fortunately, Mr. Prosser's term does not end until the end of July so they will have four full months to play sue and counter sue before this whole thing comes to an end.
Of course, the reason this has grabbed attention is that the Wisconsin Supreme Court is currently split 4-3 conservative-liberal. Nearly everyone expects the justices to vote on party lines regarding the recent law about union dues and bargining. So this is seen as either a way to maintain the law as passed by the legislature and governor or as a means to strike down the law and return to the status quo.
Fortunately, Mr. Prosser's term does not end until the end of July so they will have four full months to play sue and counter sue before this whole thing comes to an end.Of course, the reason this has grabbed attention is that the Wisconsin Supreme Court is currently split 4-3 conservative-liberal. Nearly everyone expects the justices to vote on party lines regarding the recent law about union dues and bargining. So this is seen as either a way to maintain the law as passed by the legislature and governor or as a means to strike down the law and return to the status quo.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Friday, March 11, 2011
Whirlpool!
This is a huge whirlpool that formed shortly after the earthquake in Japan. If you look closely, you can see a fishing boat on the outer rim to give it a sense of scale.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Comet Elenin
I've been reading a little bit on Comet Elenin. The comet (formally known as C/2010 X1) was discovered back in Dec. 2010 by a Russian astronomer named Leonid Elenin. What's interesting is that it will pass about 0.23 AU (21.37 million miles) of Earth in mid-October 2011 (1 AU (92.96 million miles) is the distance between the Sun and the Earth). That should mean that we should get a really good look at it. What's more, there is a possibility that the Earth may actually pass through the tail debris, which should produce a mini-meteor shower.
According to a website that tracks comets, Elenin will be tracking through Virgo and Leo at it's closest approach. Unfortunately according to star maps, in mid-October Leo will be setting where I live around 6:30 PM which means that the sun will still be up. So my best chance to see it will probably be in mid to late September when it is still tracking in Virgo. Virgo doesn't set until around 7 PM in late September and closer to 8 PM in mid-September. At this time of year, the comet will be about 0.45 AU (41.83 million miles).
According to a website that tracks comets, Elenin will be tracking through Virgo and Leo at it's closest approach. Unfortunately according to star maps, in mid-October Leo will be setting where I live around 6:30 PM which means that the sun will still be up. So my best chance to see it will probably be in mid to late September when it is still tracking in Virgo. Virgo doesn't set until around 7 PM in late September and closer to 8 PM in mid-September. At this time of year, the comet will be about 0.45 AU (41.83 million miles).
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Saudi Day of Rage
March 11th has been set as a "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia. Naturally this will have a wonderful effect on oil prices.
One thing that seems to have escaped the notice of some people though is that this day will be the 7th anniversary of the Madrid train bombings and the 9-1/2 anniversary of Sept. 11.
Given that there have been at least two Fridays between the call for a "Day of Rage" and the scheduled date leads me to believe that the date is not lost to the organizers. I'll be very curious to see if any signs show up at this event next week.
One thing that seems to have escaped the notice of some people though is that this day will be the 7th anniversary of the Madrid train bombings and the 9-1/2 anniversary of Sept. 11.
Given that there have been at least two Fridays between the call for a "Day of Rage" and the scheduled date leads me to believe that the date is not lost to the organizers. I'll be very curious to see if any signs show up at this event next week.
Monday, February 28, 2011
The Whos
I find this picture far more amusing that it should probably be.
Roger Daltrey (vocals) - 8th doctor
Pete Townshend (guitar) - 11th doctor
John Entwistle (bass) - 4th doctor
Keith Moon (drums) - 10th doctor
Roger Daltrey (vocals) - 8th doctor
Pete Townshend (guitar) - 11th doctor
John Entwistle (bass) - 4th doctor
Keith Moon (drums) - 10th doctor
Monday, February 21, 2011
Can We Fix It? YES WE CAN!
One of the best things about having young kids is that you can unashamedly enjoy things like this:
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Monday, February 07, 2011
Good Game, Bad Commercials
A good game and I'm glad the Packers won. More so because it meant that the Steelers lost, but why taint the feelings of my sister ;)
What sucked though was the commercials. Mrs. X made a note that the commercials had been going downhill for the past few years and they took a sharp dive this year. The humor was sophmoric and repeatative. Many were just stupid. I usually like to post a top three of the commercials that I like, but this year I can only muster feeling about two:
1. Darth Vader Volkswagon - This was the only truly funny one other there. It's even funnier if you have kids. The temptation to do exactly what the dad does at the end of the commercial (to pull little pranks to make the kids think they can do magic or other things) is very true to style.
2. Motorola Xoom Tablet - This was an ok commercial itself but it wins points with me for the intellegence of the ad. One of the greatest Super Bowl ads was the 1984 Macintosh ad. In the Motorola ad, Apple has become big brother (not that offbase if you ever talk to Mac people) and it is the Motorola Tablet that is fighting against Big Brother much as Apple promised the Mac would against the conformity of IBM.
If I had to pick a third one, I might go with the CarMax one where the modern guy pulls up to a 1950's gas station. It didn't do much in telling me anything about CarMax, but it was funny in how we probably would react if we got the full service treatment of yesteryear.
What sucked though was the commercials. Mrs. X made a note that the commercials had been going downhill for the past few years and they took a sharp dive this year. The humor was sophmoric and repeatative. Many were just stupid. I usually like to post a top three of the commercials that I like, but this year I can only muster feeling about two:
1. Darth Vader Volkswagon - This was the only truly funny one other there. It's even funnier if you have kids. The temptation to do exactly what the dad does at the end of the commercial (to pull little pranks to make the kids think they can do magic or other things) is very true to style.
2. Motorola Xoom Tablet - This was an ok commercial itself but it wins points with me for the intellegence of the ad. One of the greatest Super Bowl ads was the 1984 Macintosh ad. In the Motorola ad, Apple has become big brother (not that offbase if you ever talk to Mac people) and it is the Motorola Tablet that is fighting against Big Brother much as Apple promised the Mac would against the conformity of IBM.
If I had to pick a third one, I might go with the CarMax one where the modern guy pulls up to a 1950's gas station. It didn't do much in telling me anything about CarMax, but it was funny in how we probably would react if we got the full service treatment of yesteryear.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Egypt Eye View
This is a post by a blogger named Sandmonkey who lives and has participated in the protests. There are rumors that he has been arrested. It certainly makes for a different perspective on what is going on there.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Boom Boom in Japan
Mt. Kirishima on the southern Japanese island of Kyushu started erupting yesterday. The pictures are quite dramatic.
I've never been to that part of Japan but it's all still interesting. I've noted the location of the volcano on the map below:
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Perspective
Someone posted this yesterday and I just want to hold on to it for reference.
Time Magazine – March 31, 1980:
“National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President. This suggests that Reagan is not the strongest G.O.P. choice for the November election and that he clearly faces an uphill battle.”
“Party operatives are plainly unhappy with his selection. In Massachusetts, where both Bush and Anderson defeated Reagan, party leaders are not yet reconciled to the Reagan candidacy. Says one: “There’s a vacuum of leadership at the national level; and what appears to be the Republican Party’s response? A 69-year-old man who has done virtually nothing for years”
“Reagan has a history of committing rhetorical blunders that drive away voters. His quest in 1976 was damaged when he suggested vaguely, without proper research and consideration, that $90 billion in federal programs should be turned back to the states. He then spent months explaining that the affected programs would not be eliminated, only transferred. As Governor, Reagan was outraged by student unrest and once proclaimed: “The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity.”
“Worse perhaps than the verbal gaffe is Reagan’s relentlessly simple-minded discussion of complex problems. He is aware that he is charged with this failing, and in his 1967 inaugural address on becoming Governor of California, he asserted: “We have been told there are no simple answers to complex problems. Well, the truth is there are simple answers, just not easy ones.”
Electoral College:
Reagan: 489
Carter: 49
Time Magazine – March 31, 1980:
“National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President. This suggests that Reagan is not the strongest G.O.P. choice for the November election and that he clearly faces an uphill battle.”
“Party operatives are plainly unhappy with his selection. In Massachusetts, where both Bush and Anderson defeated Reagan, party leaders are not yet reconciled to the Reagan candidacy. Says one: “There’s a vacuum of leadership at the national level; and what appears to be the Republican Party’s response? A 69-year-old man who has done virtually nothing for years”
“Reagan has a history of committing rhetorical blunders that drive away voters. His quest in 1976 was damaged when he suggested vaguely, without proper research and consideration, that $90 billion in federal programs should be turned back to the states. He then spent months explaining that the affected programs would not be eliminated, only transferred. As Governor, Reagan was outraged by student unrest and once proclaimed: “The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity.”
“Worse perhaps than the verbal gaffe is Reagan’s relentlessly simple-minded discussion of complex problems. He is aware that he is charged with this failing, and in his 1967 inaugural address on becoming Governor of California, he asserted: “We have been told there are no simple answers to complex problems. Well, the truth is there are simple answers, just not easy ones.”
Electoral College:
Reagan: 489
Carter: 49
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Earthquakes in Arkansas
Someone posted that about 40 minor earthquakes have occured in the last three months centered around the town of Guy, Arkansas. It may be nothing, but it could be a contributing factor to the bird and fish kills.
Cincinnati, Arkansas, which had the tornado that killed several people, is just off the north edge of this map. It's about 10 miles NW of Prairie Grove (up by the little man at the top of the zoom bar).
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Earthquake Last Week
On Dec. 30, I felt my first earthquake since a minor tremor ran through Hartford, CT over eight years ago. The earthquake was a 3.8 mag centered about 5 miles SE of Greentown, IN.
Not a huge quake by any stretch of the imagination but it did strike up some old feelings when it passed through. We we still waking up when it hit just before 8 am. It took a second to realize that it was not the wind shaking the house and a bunch of old memories of Japan and California came rushing back.
It's not something I care to repeat as houses in this area are not well equiped to handle earthquakes but it made for an interesting memory rush over the Christmas holidays.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Electoral College Update
In my look at congressional districts yesterday, I neglected what was grabbing the attention of the talking heads yesterday, namely the shift in the Electoral College.
Looking ahead to 2012 is mostly pointless as two years is an eternity in politics and much could change, but let's look at the basics of it. Mr. Obama had significant momentum and even if the economy recovers, it seems unlikely to me that he is likely to win any of the states he lost in 2008 to Mr. McCain.
That starts the Republican off with 180 votes (for simplicity, I'm giving the Republican all of Nebraska's 5 votes rather than the 4-1 split in 2008). I think it is not unreasonable to think that Virginia and Indiana will swing back to the Republican column based off more recent elections. That bumps the Republican to 204.
Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina will be tougher and that's where other factors come in to play (like who the Republican nominee is for example). While these have been reddish states in the past, they are more purple and will require more effort to swing back into the red column. Wins in these three states bring the Republican to 266.
This means that to defeat Mr. Obama, the Republican will need to take those three large purple states and one more of the straddlers (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, or New Hampshire). Nevada would probably be the easiest, followed by New Hampshire, but neither of these is automatic.
The census has made things slight more difficult for Mr. Obama, but the path to his reelection still remains mostly the same: hold the traditional blue states, keep most of the bluish-purple little states, and hold one of the big purple states (Florida being the ideal but North Carolina, Virgina, or Ohio would do in a pinch). Obviously much can and will change in the next couple of years, but the path in a broad sense looks fairly straightforward.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
2011 Congressional Districts
The 2010 Census figures are being released today. Many states stay the same but a few will need to redraw the congressional districts. The changes are:
Massachusetts: 9 districts (-1)
New York: 27 districts (-2)
New Jersey: 12 districts (-1)
Pennsylvania: 18 districts (-1)
South Carolina: 7 districts (+1)
Georgia: 14 districts (+1)
Florida: 27 districts (+2)
Ohio: 16 districts (-2)
Michigan: 14 districts (-1)
Illinois: 18 districts (-1)
Missouri: 8 districts (-1)
Louisiana: 6 districts (-1)
Texas: 36 districts (+4)
Iowa: 4 districts (-1)
Arizona: 9 districts (+1)
Nevada: 4 districts (+1)
Utah: 4 districts (+1)
Washington: 10 districts (+1)
Each state has it's own rules and deadlines as to when it redraws the lines, but it would seem that most states will have everything in place by Jan. 1, 2012. Most will probably be before that, but the first maps probably won't be available for nearly a year.
Ohio, specifically, has a commission that will consist of the Governor, Auditor, Secretary of State, and two more selected by the Republican and Democratic Legislative leadership (meaning that they will probably pick a Republican and Democrat from the Legislature). That would mean that the commission will be 4-1 Republican and will have until Oct. 5, 2011 to redraw the districts.
Nothing is certain but many political observers think that OH-10 (Kucinich - D) will be divided among it's neighbors (OH-11, OH-13, and OH-14). Not much else has been said as to who else will be without a district in 2012 but I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt was made to squeeze OH-9, OH-13, and OH-17 into two districts with some bleed off being taken from OH-5 and OH-16.
Incidentally, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-13, and OH-17 are the 5 districts that stayed Democrat in the 2010 elections. So, I would expect to see some effort made to keep the 12 Republicans entering the House in 2011 and drop the Democrats from 5 to 3. But I don't know if there are any rules that I'm unaware that will hamstring the commission to keep a certain breakdown based on population.
Massachusetts: 9 districts (-1)
New York: 27 districts (-2)
New Jersey: 12 districts (-1)
Pennsylvania: 18 districts (-1)
South Carolina: 7 districts (+1)
Georgia: 14 districts (+1)
Florida: 27 districts (+2)
Ohio: 16 districts (-2)
Michigan: 14 districts (-1)
Illinois: 18 districts (-1)
Missouri: 8 districts (-1)
Louisiana: 6 districts (-1)
Texas: 36 districts (+4)
Iowa: 4 districts (-1)
Arizona: 9 districts (+1)
Nevada: 4 districts (+1)
Utah: 4 districts (+1)
Washington: 10 districts (+1)
Each state has it's own rules and deadlines as to when it redraws the lines, but it would seem that most states will have everything in place by Jan. 1, 2012. Most will probably be before that, but the first maps probably won't be available for nearly a year.
Ohio, specifically, has a commission that will consist of the Governor, Auditor, Secretary of State, and two more selected by the Republican and Democratic Legislative leadership (meaning that they will probably pick a Republican and Democrat from the Legislature). That would mean that the commission will be 4-1 Republican and will have until Oct. 5, 2011 to redraw the districts.
Nothing is certain but many political observers think that OH-10 (Kucinich - D) will be divided among it's neighbors (OH-11, OH-13, and OH-14). Not much else has been said as to who else will be without a district in 2012 but I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt was made to squeeze OH-9, OH-13, and OH-17 into two districts with some bleed off being taken from OH-5 and OH-16.
Incidentally, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-13, and OH-17 are the 5 districts that stayed Democrat in the 2010 elections. So, I would expect to see some effort made to keep the 12 Republicans entering the House in 2011 and drop the Democrats from 5 to 3. But I don't know if there are any rules that I'm unaware that will hamstring the commission to keep a certain breakdown based on population.
Friday, December 03, 2010
Major Fire in Israel
A huge fire broke out yesterday in the Carmel region, just south of Haifa.
Arson is strongly suspected. High winds and 6 years of drought have fueled the fire and over 60 people have been confirmed as killed by the fire or related activities. More details can be learned here.
Arson is strongly suspected. High winds and 6 years of drought have fueled the fire and over 60 people have been confirmed as killed by the fire or related activities. More details can be learned here.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 3
Track 11 (Funny Little Things):
Track 12 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha, Reprise):
Track 13 (Misty Mountains Cold):
Bonus (Where there's a Whip, There's a Way):
Track 12 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha, Reprise):
Track 13 (Misty Mountains Cold):
Bonus (Where there's a Whip, There's a Way):
The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 2
Track 6 (The Greatest Adventure Instrumental):
Track 7 (Dinner at Bag End):
Track 8 (Down Down to Goblin Town):
Track 9 (Rollin' Down a Hole):
Track 10 (Gollum's Riddle):
Track 7 (Dinner at Bag End):
Track 8 (Down Down to Goblin Town):
Track 9 (Rollin' Down a Hole):
Track 10 (Gollum's Riddle):
The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 1
Call me a dork, nerd, or whatever, but you cannot possibly imagine how long I have looked for this:
Track 1 (The Greatest Adventure):
Track 2 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha):
Track 3 (Old Fat Spider):
Track 4 (Roads)
Track 5 (Roads Instrumental)
Track 1 (The Greatest Adventure):
Track 2 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha):
Track 3 (Old Fat Spider):
Track 4 (Roads)
Track 5 (Roads Instrumental)
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Late Night Funnies
A few of the more funnier moments from the rounds last night:
Conan: President Obama scheduled to grant a turkey the traditional pardon on Wednesday. But a spokesman for the turkey now says it doesn’t need a pardon. It needs a job.
Fallon: Experts announce a new plan to slash the federal debt by $6 trillion. All we have to do is switch from regular light bulbs to not having a federal government.
Leno: House Democrats just elected Nancy Pelosi as their minority leader for the new Congress. Why mess with success, right?
Conan: Congressional Democrats push for $12 billion in additional unemployment benefits. They say they can’t turn their backs on those who until two weeks ago were House Democrats.
Conan: Donald Trump wants to know if people think he should run for president. So his folks launched a website called shouldtrumprun.com. Americans have responded with their own website, no.com
Conan: Oprah Winfrey is reportedly considering buying a property in New Jersey. The property is called, “New Jersey.”
Fallon: GM wants to thank all who made its recovery possible: Toyota’s brakes, Toyota’s steering and Toyota’s accelerators.
Letterman: A new wrinkle this year for Wal-Mart’s midnight store openings on Thanksgiving Friday: They’ve added bulls to the run.
Fallon: New plan out to cover $6 trillion of the nation’s debt. First, look at all the spending for the past five years. Then, ask China for $6 trillion more.
Conan: President Obama scheduled to grant a turkey the traditional pardon on Wednesday. But a spokesman for the turkey now says it doesn’t need a pardon. It needs a job.
Fallon: Experts announce a new plan to slash the federal debt by $6 trillion. All we have to do is switch from regular light bulbs to not having a federal government.
Leno: House Democrats just elected Nancy Pelosi as their minority leader for the new Congress. Why mess with success, right?
Conan: Congressional Democrats push for $12 billion in additional unemployment benefits. They say they can’t turn their backs on those who until two weeks ago were House Democrats.
Conan: Donald Trump wants to know if people think he should run for president. So his folks launched a website called shouldtrumprun.com. Americans have responded with their own website, no.com
Conan: Oprah Winfrey is reportedly considering buying a property in New Jersey. The property is called, “New Jersey.”
Fallon: GM wants to thank all who made its recovery possible: Toyota’s brakes, Toyota’s steering and Toyota’s accelerators.
Letterman: A new wrinkle this year for Wal-Mart’s midnight store openings on Thanksgiving Friday: They’ve added bulls to the run.
Fallon: New plan out to cover $6 trillion of the nation’s debt. First, look at all the spending for the past five years. Then, ask China for $6 trillion more.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Old Classics
Say what you want about his policies, Ronald Reagan could give a great speech about things that mattered:
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Monday, November 08, 2010
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Election 2010 Post Mortem
In hindsight, my projections were just a hair too optimistic for the Republicans. It was still a good night, but a few things didn't quite break the way I thought they might. There are still 9 House races that are undecided but if they hold as they currently stand, the Republicans will finish with 243 seats to the Democrats 192 seats. This would be a 64-seat pick-up (or about 6 short of what I projected).
I did worse in the Senate. My gut was wrong about WV where Manchin surged ahead and Harry Reid overcame polling showing him down anywhere from 2-4 points to win by 5. Washington, Colorado, and Alaska are undecided as of yet. In Washington, Murray (D) is ahead by about 14,000 votes at the moment but only 65% of precincts are counted. Bennett (D) is holding on by his fingernails (7,500 votes with 88% of the precincts counted). In Alaska it appears that Murkowski's write-in campaign succeeded but there is a lengthy review process so it may be late November before she is officially certified as the winner. Whether her or Miller, Alaska will stay Republican. As such, if Murray and Bennett win, Democrats will have 53 seats to the Republican's 47 (a gain of 6 seats or 3 short of my prediction).
Ohio on the other hand, went Republican. Republicans swept the state offices and Democrats only retained 5 of 18 House seats (OH-9, 10, 11, 13, 17). With Ohio slated to lose 2 congressional districts next year, expect some serious squashing of these 5 districts to try and force at least one if not two more Democrats out of the House.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Election 2010
As I did two years ago, I'll be posting my random thoughts throughout the day. I'll be doing it on paper and then uploading it later after I leave work so it's more of a historical record rather than a good checking document on happening things.
7:00 AM - Per the discussion I had with Mrs. X last night, here's a list of the OH races we'll be watching (incumbents are bold):
6:53 AM - Polls have been open for nearly an hour in KY and half an hour in OH. I've printed off my cheat sheet for the house races for tonight:
7:00 AM - Per the discussion I had with Mrs. X last night, here's a list of the OH races we'll be watching (incumbents are bold):
Governor: Ted Strickland (D) vs. John Kasich (R)
Attorney General: Richard Cordray (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R)
Secretary of State: Maryellen O'Shaughnessy (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)
Treasurer: Kevin Boyce (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)
Auditor: David Pepper (D) vs. David Yost (R)
Senator: Lee Fisher (D) vs. Rob Portman (R)
8:07 AM - Captain Ed agrees with me.
11:47 AM - Early reports suggesting lighter turnout in several liberal districts relative to '08. General turnout has been heavy but far below that of the last election.
2:18 PM - Gallup is reporting an enthusiasm gap of 19 points.
3:30 PM - Heading off to vote.
4:15 PM - Voter #310 at my polling place. Pretty high in my opinion.
6:00 PM - Polls closing in parts of IN, KY, and NH
6:10 PM - Hodes (D) leads Ayotte (R) in NH 7-5.
6:12 PM - Paul (R) up 57-42 with >1% reporting in KY
6:13 PM - Fox is listing KY-6 as a race to watch. I doubt it.
6:30 PM - IN-8 at 51-43 for the Republican with 4% reporting.
7:00 PM - Coats (R-IN), Paul (R-KY), Leahy (D-VT), Demint (R-SC) all projected winners
7:45 PM - 5% in and Rubio (R) up 50-22 over Crist (I) in FL.
7:46 PM - D wins KY-3
8:22 PM - Portman wins OH senate seat.
Monday, November 01, 2010
Predictions
Tomorrow is election day so it would only be fair to offer some predictions on how things will go.
Things are looking pretty good for the GOP at the moment. That they will retake the House seems almost certain and many prognosticators have been talking of a 1994-like wave. It may be even bigger than that. Checking RCPs House Rankings, if the Republicans and Democrats take all the seats in the lean or better column assigned to them and you split the Toss-Ups 50-50, the GOP would pick up 66 seats. I think there will be higher GOP turnout that will push this model slightly to the right, so I'm going to offer my pick of 70 seats in the House. That would put it above 1994 (54 seats), but well below the insane wave of 1894 (130 seats).
The Senate is a little trickier. At the moment, I see no evidence that the GOP will lose any of the Senate seats they currently hold. They look to pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Nevada. That would push them to 48 seats.
Democrats will easily keep Hawaii, Maryland, both New York seats, Oregon, and Vermont. I think they will also hold on to Connecticut and Delaware, although these races might be closer than they should be. Either way, the Democrats would have 48 seats at this point.
That leaves Illinois, West Virginia, California, and Washington as the toss-ups. I think Illinois will swing Republican (albeit reluctantly) and I also see West Virginia going Republican despite some polls showing Mr. Manchin (D) ahead. Mr. Obama is still somewhat popular in California so I think that though it will be close, the wave will not be as hard there and Ms. Boxer retains her seat. Washington is a true toss-up but things seem to break Democratic whenever they are so close in that state, so I will give the Democrats that seat as well.
In the end, I think the GOP picks up 9 seats for a 50-50 split with Joe Biden breaking the tie and allowing the Democrats to retain control of the Senate.
Things are looking pretty good for the GOP at the moment. That they will retake the House seems almost certain and many prognosticators have been talking of a 1994-like wave. It may be even bigger than that. Checking RCPs House Rankings, if the Republicans and Democrats take all the seats in the lean or better column assigned to them and you split the Toss-Ups 50-50, the GOP would pick up 66 seats. I think there will be higher GOP turnout that will push this model slightly to the right, so I'm going to offer my pick of 70 seats in the House. That would put it above 1994 (54 seats), but well below the insane wave of 1894 (130 seats).
The Senate is a little trickier. At the moment, I see no evidence that the GOP will lose any of the Senate seats they currently hold. They look to pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Nevada. That would push them to 48 seats.
Democrats will easily keep Hawaii, Maryland, both New York seats, Oregon, and Vermont. I think they will also hold on to Connecticut and Delaware, although these races might be closer than they should be. Either way, the Democrats would have 48 seats at this point.
That leaves Illinois, West Virginia, California, and Washington as the toss-ups. I think Illinois will swing Republican (albeit reluctantly) and I also see West Virginia going Republican despite some polls showing Mr. Manchin (D) ahead. Mr. Obama is still somewhat popular in California so I think that though it will be close, the wave will not be as hard there and Ms. Boxer retains her seat. Washington is a true toss-up but things seem to break Democratic whenever they are so close in that state, so I will give the Democrats that seat as well.
In the end, I think the GOP picks up 9 seats for a 50-50 split with Joe Biden breaking the tie and allowing the Democrats to retain control of the Senate.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
I Wear No Pants
My son reminded me of this commercial the other day. Of course, he's 18 months old...
Monday, October 18, 2010
Kucinich in Trouble?
A small poll recently done for OH-10 shows that incumbent Democrat Dennis Kucinich is only up 4 points in his western Cleveland district. If true, it's probably more reflective of Mr. Kucinich's kookiness rather than any overwhelming shift in people turning more conservative.
Still, the idea that a Cleveland Democrat is in trouble does give some perspective on how bad this election could be for the Democrats.
Another district that may turn and is indicative of a significant anti-incumbent fever is OH-6. This is the Appalachian district running down on the border with West Virginia and is the origin of current governor Ted Strickland. It is currently represented by Charlie Wilson (D) (no, not that Charlie Wilson). Despite favoring Republicans on a national level, it has stood solid with Democrats on a more local level.
These two districts will be significant bellwethers about how bad things will be for Democrats in Ohio and possibly nationally as well.
Still, the idea that a Cleveland Democrat is in trouble does give some perspective on how bad this election could be for the Democrats.
Another district that may turn and is indicative of a significant anti-incumbent fever is OH-6. This is the Appalachian district running down on the border with West Virginia and is the origin of current governor Ted Strickland. It is currently represented by Charlie Wilson (D) (no, not that Charlie Wilson). Despite favoring Republicans on a national level, it has stood solid with Democrats on a more local level.
These two districts will be significant bellwethers about how bad things will be for Democrats in Ohio and possibly nationally as well.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Reds Win! Reds Win!
Last night the Reds clinched the division by defeating the Houston Astros 3-2 on a walk-off home run in the 9th by Jay Bruce. Bruce took the literal first pitch and cracked it over the center field wall. For good measure, the St. Louis Cardinals also lost, firmly cementing the Reds as NL Central Division Champions.
As of right now, the playoffs are nearly set. All four AL teams are decided, although it's not yet clear as to who wins the division and who wins the wild card between the NY Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa leads the division by a 1/2 game). The Rays are also 2 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins for home-field advantage. The Texas Rangers round out the AL field.
In the NL, the Phillies have won the East and have clinched home-field. The Reds have the Central. That leaves the West and the wild card. The SF Giants have a 2-game lead on the San Diego Padres for the West and the Atlanta Braves have a 1-1/2 game lead over the Padres for the wild card. All other teams have been eliminated from contention.
For the AL, the East winner will almost surely face off against the Rangers while the Twins take on the wild card winner.
In the NL, the Giants are a game ahead of the Reds for record. If the season ended today, the Phillies would play the Reds and the Giants would play the Braves. But this might change based on the last five games of the season.
As of right now, the playoffs are nearly set. All four AL teams are decided, although it's not yet clear as to who wins the division and who wins the wild card between the NY Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa leads the division by a 1/2 game). The Rays are also 2 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins for home-field advantage. The Texas Rangers round out the AL field.
In the NL, the Phillies have won the East and have clinched home-field. The Reds have the Central. That leaves the West and the wild card. The SF Giants have a 2-game lead on the San Diego Padres for the West and the Atlanta Braves have a 1-1/2 game lead over the Padres for the wild card. All other teams have been eliminated from contention.
For the AL, the East winner will almost surely face off against the Rangers while the Twins take on the wild card winner.
In the NL, the Giants are a game ahead of the Reds for record. If the season ended today, the Phillies would play the Reds and the Giants would play the Braves. But this might change based on the last five games of the season.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Tracking the House
Last week I noted what would constitute good news and bad news for the Democrats in the Senate on election night. Now we should take a quick look at the House.
Currently, the House has 255 Democratic members, 178 Republican members and 2 vacancys. To retain the majority, the Democrats must keep 218 seats or no worse than a loss of 37 seats. I found this map on Realclearpolitics:
The color code breakdown is as follows. Red and Blue denote Republican and Democrat seats that either have not been polled or are considered to stay with their current representation. Salmon are Democratic seats that are considered to likely to switch. Light blue are Republican seats likely to switch and purple are toss ups.
If this map held, the Republicans would have 206 seats and the Democrats would have 191 seats with 38 seats in toss-up. Given this, a good night for the Democrats would mean simply keeping control of the House: 218+ seats (loss of 37 or less). A bad night would mean loss of control and loss of most of the toss-up seats: 200-217 (loss of 38-55 seats). A really bad night would be the loss of all the toss-up seats and not gaining the vunerable Republican seats: 185-199 (loss of 56-70 seats). A "let's get drunk night" would be losing even some of the leaner seats: 184 or less (loss of more than 70 seats).
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Senate Balance
While there are many races going on to be decided in 6 weeks, the Senate seems to be capturing the most attention. At the moment there are 59 Democratic Senators and 41 Republicans. It has become almost a given at this point to say that the Democrats are going to lose some seats to the Republicans and the question is just how many. Some go so far as to say that the Republicans might even take hold of the Senate. Let's examine the balance to see how likely that is.
Currently there are 18 seats held by Republicans and 19 seats held by Democrats that are on the ballot. Four of these are special elections: New York for the remainder of Ms. Clinton's term (currently held by Ms. Gillibrand), Illinois for the remainder of Mr. Obama's term (currently held by Mr. Burris), Delaware for the remainder of Mr. Biden's term (currently held by Mr. Kaufman), and West Virginia for the remainder of Mr. Byrd's term (currently held by Mr. Goodwin).
As of right now, the GOP does not look as though they will lose any seats. Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio are tighter races but the polling seems to favor the Republicans. In the same vein, the Republicans look as though they will pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania. That would push the GOP to 45 seats.
On the Democratic side, they have locks on Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont. They are likely to retain Delaware, New York (special), and Connecticut. That puts the Democrats at 48 seats.
That leaves the following seats in a state of flux: California, Washington, West Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin. I think the odds favor the Democrats keeping California and Washington. The Democratic governor running for the West Virginia is popular and has the inside track for that seat, but the Republican has kept on his heels. If the Democrats retain all three of these seats, that puts them at 51 seats.
Current polling favors the Republicans in the 4 remaining seats, which would leave the Senate at 51-49, Democratic control. Now, the one thing that no one seems to be able to get a firm handle on is turnout. Heavy turnout by one side or the other would upend these numbers. A good night for the Democrats would have them retain the 4 toss-ups and press for the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania seats. A bad night for the Democrats would be to lose the 4 toss-ups and be pressed in the three medium seats mentioned above. A really bad night would have the Republicans take all 7 of these seats and press in Connecticut, Delaware, or even the special election in New York. These are unlikely, but it does give us a sense of scale for these races.
So we can rate Senate control is this manner:
Good Night for Democrats (54+ seats)
Bad Night for Democrats (50-53 seats)
Really Bad Night for Democrats (47-49 seats)
Democratic Seppeku (Less than 47 seats)
Currently there are 18 seats held by Republicans and 19 seats held by Democrats that are on the ballot. Four of these are special elections: New York for the remainder of Ms. Clinton's term (currently held by Ms. Gillibrand), Illinois for the remainder of Mr. Obama's term (currently held by Mr. Burris), Delaware for the remainder of Mr. Biden's term (currently held by Mr. Kaufman), and West Virginia for the remainder of Mr. Byrd's term (currently held by Mr. Goodwin).
As of right now, the GOP does not look as though they will lose any seats. Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio are tighter races but the polling seems to favor the Republicans. In the same vein, the Republicans look as though they will pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania. That would push the GOP to 45 seats.
On the Democratic side, they have locks on Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont. They are likely to retain Delaware, New York (special), and Connecticut. That puts the Democrats at 48 seats.
That leaves the following seats in a state of flux: California, Washington, West Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin. I think the odds favor the Democrats keeping California and Washington. The Democratic governor running for the West Virginia is popular and has the inside track for that seat, but the Republican has kept on his heels. If the Democrats retain all three of these seats, that puts them at 51 seats.
Current polling favors the Republicans in the 4 remaining seats, which would leave the Senate at 51-49, Democratic control. Now, the one thing that no one seems to be able to get a firm handle on is turnout. Heavy turnout by one side or the other would upend these numbers. A good night for the Democrats would have them retain the 4 toss-ups and press for the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania seats. A bad night for the Democrats would be to lose the 4 toss-ups and be pressed in the three medium seats mentioned above. A really bad night would have the Republicans take all 7 of these seats and press in Connecticut, Delaware, or even the special election in New York. These are unlikely, but it does give us a sense of scale for these races.
So we can rate Senate control is this manner:
Good Night for Democrats (54+ seats)
Bad Night for Democrats (50-53 seats)
Really Bad Night for Democrats (47-49 seats)
Democratic Seppeku (Less than 47 seats)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Tea Party Fallout
Ms. O'Donnell won last night 53-47. The first polls coming out after the contest show her down about 15 points. Interestingly, when she first announced back in July, she polled 3 points above Mr. Coons but then the internecine warfare began.
Can she recover? Perhaps but it will take a significant GotV effort. Democrats outnumber Republicans in Delaware by about 2-1. A significant number of them will have to stay home and Ms. O'Donnell will have to score big among the Independents as well. A tall order for only a month and a half of campaigning.
The one other story that is not getting any play for some reason is the jeopardy that Senator Russ Feingold (D) is finding himself in. Ron Johnson easily won the Republican nomination last night and will be challenging him for the Wisconsin Senate seat. I've been following the poll tracking on this race and the two men have been neck and neck since Johnson announced back in May. Mr. Feingold seems to be unable to break 46 percent in polling while Mr. Johnson dances around him between 44 and 47 points. If turnout is as weighted toward the Republicans as the grand poobahs seem to think they will be, Mr. Feingold may be in trouble of losing his seat. That would be significant.
Can she recover? Perhaps but it will take a significant GotV effort. Democrats outnumber Republicans in Delaware by about 2-1. A significant number of them will have to stay home and Ms. O'Donnell will have to score big among the Independents as well. A tall order for only a month and a half of campaigning.
The one other story that is not getting any play for some reason is the jeopardy that Senator Russ Feingold (D) is finding himself in. Ron Johnson easily won the Republican nomination last night and will be challenging him for the Wisconsin Senate seat. I've been following the poll tracking on this race and the two men have been neck and neck since Johnson announced back in May. Mr. Feingold seems to be unable to break 46 percent in polling while Mr. Johnson dances around him between 44 and 47 points. If turnout is as weighted toward the Republicans as the grand poobahs seem to think they will be, Mr. Feingold may be in trouble of losing his seat. That would be significant.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Delaware Blood
Tonight marks the last major primary night before the November mid-terms. Hawaii will have a primary later this month, but this is last big one. Most of the races are already predetermined but there is one that is causing a true explosion in Republican circles.
Democrats settled on their nominee for the open Delaware senate seat months ago (Chris Coons). The Republicans looked like they had settled on their nominee as well (Current House Rep. Mike Castle), but there has been a late surge by Christine O'Donnell, who is backed by the state tea party.
The issue has become quite contentious as it has evolved into a purity contest. Mr. Castle is seen as something of a RINO (having voted with the GOP only about 85% of the time in the last term of Congress) but is almost certain to crush Mr. Coons in the general (current polling has Castle up 48-37). Ms. O'Donnell is more conservative in her positions but is seen as a flawed candidate who will lose to Mr. Coons (current polling has her down 47-36).
So this has become a purity debate. Is it better to win with a candidate who is squishy in their positions or better to lose with a pure candidate? Either way, the fallout from tonight's primary will be amusing to read.
Polls close at 8pm in Delaware.
Democrats settled on their nominee for the open Delaware senate seat months ago (Chris Coons). The Republicans looked like they had settled on their nominee as well (Current House Rep. Mike Castle), but there has been a late surge by Christine O'Donnell, who is backed by the state tea party.
The issue has become quite contentious as it has evolved into a purity contest. Mr. Castle is seen as something of a RINO (having voted with the GOP only about 85% of the time in the last term of Congress) but is almost certain to crush Mr. Coons in the general (current polling has Castle up 48-37). Ms. O'Donnell is more conservative in her positions but is seen as a flawed candidate who will lose to Mr. Coons (current polling has her down 47-36).
So this has become a purity debate. Is it better to win with a candidate who is squishy in their positions or better to lose with a pure candidate? Either way, the fallout from tonight's primary will be amusing to read.
Polls close at 8pm in Delaware.
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
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