Friday, April 06, 2012

Veep Considerations

Mitt Romney has officially crossed the 50% line in the delegate totals and it is highly likely that he'll be tacking on between 150-200 delegates in another two and a half weeks. This would bring him to 2/3 of the required delegates with the bonanzas of Texas and California still waiting.

Given all of that, talk has started to drift from the actual Republican nominating contest to who would be a good Vice Presidential candidate. Talk has swirled around a number of people, several who are more likely than others. I'm going to leave out anyone who has actually run for President this term as they have been discussed ad naseum. Here are named contestant in alphabetical order:

1. Chris Christie (Gov-NJ) - Christie was one of Mr. Romney's earliest supporters and is a perfect attack dog. However, being from New Jersey doesn't do anything for Mr. Romney. He's also not any further to the Right that Mr. Romney is on the various issues that threaten to keep the Republican base at home. Mr. Romney might be comfortable with Mr. Christie, but he doesn't gain anything outside of that.

2. Mitch Daniels (Gov-IN) - Daniels is a long shot as I doubt he (or his wife) would be any more interested on the ticket as a #2 as opposed to the #1 slot. Daniels would help Mr. Romney in the Midwest as he is a bit more folksy than Mr. Romney has ever managed to be. However, he also is not much to the Right of Mr. Romney on the key issues in terms of generating base enthusiasm. Mr. Daniels also has failed to impress as an attack dog and that is the primary role of a Vice Presidential candidate in the election. The Daniels talk is mostly done by those who favored him for President last year.

3. Nikki Haley (Gov-SC) - Ms. Haley was, at one point, a Tea Party darling and seen as having honest cred with the hard Right. However, she has recently got under their skin, first by openly supporting Mr. Romney during the South Carolina primary and then through a series of decisions that have not slashed the budget as much as Tea Party folks hoped. She also was only elected governor in 2010, giving her little executive experience. In many ways, her selection would be Sarah Palin all over again. Ms. Haley did serve in Congress prior to the governorship, but she will likely be seen as too green to take the Veep spot.

4. Bobby Jindal (Gov-LA) - Mr. Jindal recently won reelection as governor of Louisiana, giving him executive seasoning. He also is a Southern governor with a strong social conservative streak that Mr. Romney is seen as a bit weak on. He also adds a bit of diversity, being of Indian ancestry. I don't know what his relationship with Mr. Romney is as Mr. Jindal backed Governor Perry early on and then went neutral after he dropped out.

5. Rob Portman (Sen-OH) - Portman would fall in the same area as Mr. Daniels and Mr. Christie. Ideologically he is in the same ballpark as Mr. Romney, perhaps with shades a bit to the Right. He also gives Mr. Romney a tie to the Midwest. One edge he has over Mr. Daniels is that Mr. Portman has been in Washington for almost 20 years and knows the ins and outs that Mr. Romney does not. The major downside is that even four years later, Mr. Portman is still heavily tied to the Bush administration and he suffers on both the Right and the Left as a result.

6. Marco Rubio (Sen-FL) - Mr. Rubio has been the hot pick of the conservative media. He is young and energetic. He is Hispanic and goes after the Left in attack dog fashion that appeals to the Right. He also is from Florida and could tie that state down for Mr. Romney. However, he is still fairly green in terms of national experience. He also has come out several times and said that he will not accept the Vice-Presidential nomination. So despite what people talk about, his candidacy seems to be a non-starter.

7. Paul Ryan (Rep-WI) - Mr. Ryan falls mainly in the same camp as Mr. Portman. He has been in Washington for 13 years and is a member of the senior leadership of the House. He also is from a Midwestern state that will be a battleground come November. Unlike Mr. Portman, Mr. Ryan is popular with the Tea Party and has produced several ads designed to both promote the Republican budget plan and attack Mr. Obama. These as have been popular enough in Conservative circles to cause much wailing that Mr. Ryan is running for the top job himself. The one point that the selection of Mr. Ryan would do, is to ensure that Mr. Romney is planting his campaign flag on economic issues. Mr. Ryan has become so synonymous with budget battles over the past years that money is his main talking point (despite being just as conservative on social issues).

8. Allen West (Rep-FL) - Mr. West is very popular with Conservative media. He is a retired army colonel and African-American. He also has given quite a few fiery conservative attack speeches both during his initial campaign and since winning his seat in 2010. However, he is quite green in terms of political experience and it is unlikely that his being on the ticket would even cause much drift in Florida.

I have a guess as to which candidate (assuming he only works with this list) that Mr. Romney will favor. Time will tell and the nature of the campaign may drive one more towards him than originally thought.

*UPDATE*

Literally within an hour of hitting publish, I see this story from Politico. GOP strategists appear to favor Mr. Portman and also throw Susana Martinez (Gov-NM) into the mix. Ms. Martinez would also be a long shot, due to lack of national experience, and has also stated that she would decline the offer if extended.

No comments: