Monday, April 30, 2012

Politics Perspective

I enjoy following politics, especially from the horse-race perspective. But the problem is that when you follow politics, you end up having to deal with other people who follow politics. Many are fine folk, but there are some will stand on the flimsiest points and crow and others who shriek that the skies are falling at the slightest hint that their boy is not up by more than 10 points (kind of like Ohio St. fans).

I was reminded of this fact on Friday when a poll was released about the Florida US Senate race. Bill Nelson (D) is running for a third term and his seat is being heavily targeted by the GOP. The Republican primary has not yet occurred and Rasmussen released a poll of the three GOP challengers against Mr. Nelson. Not surprisingly, all three trailed by reasonable margins. The closest match was against the GOP front-runner, Connie Mack IV (great-grandson of baseball great Connie Mack) who trails 47-36.

The results of this poll didn't surprise me. The GOP hasn't decided on a single candidate yet, Mr. Nelson is fairly popular in Florida, and it's over six months until the election. Nevertheless, the amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth from conservative poll watchers and activists is mind-blowing. There was a steady stream of diatribes on how could Florida voters be so stupid and how this spells doom for the Republican's chances to retake the Senate, etc.

Perspective is a wonderful thing. Analyzing polls at this point is less than useless and politics is one of the principle games where literally anything can happen, and usually does, in a moment's notice. It is an important lesson that it's a good idea to back away once in a while and enjoy the smell of life and not act like you will throw yourself off a cliff because your team is down by 10 in the first quarter (I'm looking at you OSU).

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