The Fallout

By now, much has been said both pro and con regarding Mr. Obama and his connections to Rev. Wright. Many on the intellectual Left have praised Mr. Obama’s speech while many on the Right have criticized it as Mr. Obama has tried to refute the nastiness of Rev. Wright’s words while keeping connections with the man himself. Meanwhile, it is still unclear as to how badly this hurts Mr. Obama’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination and winning against Mr. McCain in November.

At the moment, there is a great deal of anger in the white, blue-collar community (and in some ethnic communities) over Mr. Obama’s refusal to fully denounce Rev. Wright. What some are starting to realize is that Mr. Obama can’t fully denounce Rev. Wright because it would conflict with his overall theological beliefs. Mr. Obama may not care for the vitriolic hatred through which Rev. Wright spreads his message (although a 19-year membership in this church does seem to even call this into question), but ultimately Mr. Obama is a believer in the Black Liberation Theology to which Rev. Wright ascribes and preaches. Ultimately, it is about struggle, the restitution of past wrongs and an interpretation of the Gospel that fits with this socially conscious method. Unfortunately, it is easily given over to victimhood, which can in turn lead to anger, as given in the person of Rev. Wright.

What will probably not go away in the minds of many Democratic and Independent voters is this transformation of Mr. Obama from a candidate who happens to be African-American, to the African-American candidate, potentially hitting all the necessary buttons and baggage that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton hit.

It may be that it is too late for this to affect the Democratic race. Ms. Clinton is most likely going to win Pennsylvania and by large margins. That the numbers have increased in the wake of the Rev. Wright controversy is lost in the fact that they were already pretty high to begin with. If Mr. Obama goes on to win North Carolina and Oregon as people thing he will, and if he makes Indiana close (maybe even winning it) then he will be the nominee. However, if North Carolina goes to the wire and Ms. Clinton is able to pull it out, only then will the Superdelegates start to reevaluate their position. Any retention of the status quo with Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama getting wins on their “turf” will only benefit Mr. Obama as the party elders will be too reluctant to overturn the perceived will of the people.

Then it would come down to the question of if Democratic anger over the policies of Bush can keep Mr. Obama afloat or whether his flaws ultimately sink him in the face of the Republican onslaught.