Last Best Chance?

Is this really Mr. Obama’s third and last best chance to deliver a crushing blow to Ms. Clinton? It has been argued that Mr. Obama has had two previous chances to knock her out: New Hampshire and Super Tuesday. I don’t believe that Ms. Clinton would have withdrawn has she lost New Hampshire, but it might have set in motion the loss in the first four primaries that I discussed earlier, which might have forced her to consider withdrawing if the momentum made it look like she could lose New York. Of course, she came back and won New Hampshire.

Super Tuesday also probably wouldn’t have forced Ms. Clinton to withdraw but had Obama won California or New Jersey (even making them very close), he could have undercut her at her base and argued that he was well established in Democratic circles. That might have been enough to ensure a comfortable win in Ohio that would have clearly forced her to withdraw.

So now we’re on Mr. Obama’s supposed third opportunity to force Ms. Clinton out. Despite the Media and the Party talking about it, if Ms. Clinton wins Ohio, she will stick it out until at least Pennsylvania. It is really only a statement by Bill Clinton that has put this notion out there that she should withdraw if she loses both primaries. Obama might win Texas, but if the vote is close and she wins decent majorities in Hispanics and Women (which she is polling well in), she will argue that Texas is still a Red State and that she is the stronger person in the core constituencies of the Democratic Party. Ohio, being one of the strongest Purple States, probably matters more in terms of prestige than Texas does, despite Texas having more delegates.

If Ms. Clinton loses Ohio, she probably won’t be able to recover and will be hard pressed to make the argument that she represents the soul of the Democratic Party. A win in Ohio but not Texas will amplify the calls for her to withdraw, but I think there will be some creative spin and a wait-until-Pennsylvania attitude to decide things. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, she will probably stick it out until the Puerto Rico primaries.

Two things that have operated below the public radar are the simple fact that although Mr. Obama raised more money, Ms. Clinton did bring in $35 million. That is a lot of money and there is a large portion of the Democratic base behind her. Also, there are whispers that a large segment of the Jewish population is growing increasingly wary of Mr. Obama and his rather weak refutations of the anti-Semitic stances of some of his supporters.

If there is any significant defection of the Jewish population to Mr. McCain (Kerry won Jews 75-25), that could take certain states out of play and put other states in the maybe column. Certainly Florida would be lost to Mr. McCain and it would hurt Mr. Obama’s chances of swinging Ohio and Virginia into the Democratic column. It could also make things very uncomfortable for Mr. Obama in Connecticut and New Jersey (states that he should win by significant margins). It might even sap away the Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania and that would be disastrous for Mr. Obama.

Either way, there are too many loose strings at the moment. It does not seem that Mr. Obama will be quite able to deliver the killing blow to Ms. Clinton’s campaign, though he may deal a blow that she won’t get up from. Expect more spin and talks of seeing how Pennsylvania falls while Mr. Dean starts pulling his hair out.