The Road to Denver Will Be Paved with Blood

Now things are interesting again. I had correctly speculated that Ms. Clinton would win Rhode Island and Ohio while Mr. Obama would win Vermont. I went back and forth on Texas (as did Texas itself) but the trend of the Monday polls suggested to me that she could squeak out a one or two-point win. I was actually thinking that the early votes would put her over the top, but apparently Mr. Obama won the early votes by nearly 150,000. Instead she vaulted up on her own, although her numbers were inflated a small bit by Republican crossover. Mr. Obama won crossover Republicans as well, but his numbers would have been higher among this segment if there hadn’t been an active push in some circles to keep Ms. Clinton in the race.

Anyway, where do we go from here? Well, as I postulated earlier, the combined wins in Ohio and Texas easily keep her in until Pennsylvania and probably through Puerto Rico in June. A statistic that keeps getting flashed by the Clinton people is that if you include the voter turnout in Michigan and Florida, she and Mr. Obama are now tied for popular votes, with several large states that may go to Ms. Clinton in the future. What’s more, both Florida and Michigan are talking openly of holding their primaries again in June or July. Ms. Clinton should naturally do well in both states (and her championing of them over the past three months will only have helped her standing there) and substituting substantial wins in those states for the pseudo-wins she has will only make her stronger.

Mr. Obama will trumpet his delegate lead, which will remain essentially unchanged (not including the Texas caucus, Ms. Clinton had a net pick up of 15 delegates). However, Mr. Obama now has to win over 75% of the Democratic electorate to get the 2025 delegates he needs to win prior to the convention. This is not going to happen. Since both candidates will not have the majority, the race will be decided by the Superdelegates and the idea of being “in the lead” comes down to momentum and appeal rather than hard math. Mr. Obama will pick up some momentum again assuming he wins Wyoming and Mississippi next week, but she could blunt that with a solid win in Pennsylvania.

Ironically, one thing happened last night that may prove a strong argument for Ms. Clinton. She has argued that Mr. Obama’s success in caucuses do not accurately reflect the electorate. We may get a microcosm of this argument in Texas. Ms. Clinton won the state primary by 3 points, but Mr. Obama may end up winning the Texas caucus by 7 points or better. Obviously, the two results are not harmonious and allows Ms. Clinton to state that if all the electorate were involved, she would have beaten Mr. Obama in important swing states like Iowa and Colorado. This may not necessarily be true, but she can make a good argument at least.

Ms. Clinton will probably ignore Wyoming, although she might send Bill down to try to pump up turnout a little in Mississippi so she doesn’t get completely blown out (highest African-American population in any state by percentage). But she will focus on Pennsylvania, especially to try and blunt a potential big victory for Mr. Obama in North Carolina in early May. If she wins Pennsylvania by any decent margin, she will have a good shot to take West Virginia, Kentucky and Indiana, while also making a push for Oregon. Wins in these states will build a strong case for her to present to the Superdelegates that she is the one to beat.

Mr. Obama on the other hand is going to have to learn how to hit back in a proper manner. His style has been more deflection than counterpunch at the moment. The longer he allows Ms. Clinton to hang around and bleed him with paper cuts, the potentially weaker he gets. A win in Pennsylvania would be ideal, but the demographics of the state currently favor Ms. Clinton. He must stay close there and then pound her with a big win in North Carolina. If he could tie that win a win in Indiana, he would be in good shape to take Oregon and maybe even Kentucky (I don’t think he has a realistic shot at West Virginia).

I find it rather amusing that with the mad scramble of states to become the first in the nation and keep pushing up their primaries, it could the one-two punch of Kentucky and Oregon on May 20th that determine who has the momentum heading into the convention.

FYI, for those keeping track, Ms. Clinton now leads 6-4 in the 12 swing states of 2004 with Pennsylvania and Oregon remaining.