Starting to Bleed

Last fall, I posted about the selection Ms. Clinton should be making for her running mate because Mr. Obama seemed to have seriously hurt his campaign with a case of foot-in-mouth disease. Several months later, Mr. Obama has propelled himself to within sniffing distance of the Democratic nomination, but he is still suffering from foot-in-mouth.

Unlike many of the media poobahs, I never expected Mr. Obama to defeat Ms. Clinton in Pennsylvania. I seriously expected him to challenge her, outspend her in the state, bring the polls to within 3-5 points and then stall out with Ms. Clinton ending up with the 7-8 point win. Essentially, I expected the same result as Ohio just over a longer stretch. However, Mr. Obama’s comment threatens to expand what was already an expected loss, into a nasty pitch off the handlebars.

Framed from the perspective of bitterness, there is a nugget of truth to what Mr. Obama has said. In bad economic times, people do become bitter and seek explanations outside themselves (hence the constant blaming of NAFTA for the loss of industrial jobs). However, his examples of what people use as a crutch to get through this bitterness have potentially hobbled him. To frame the idea that people use hunting, racism, or even religion as a crutch against not being like the wealthy elite, smacks of a “poor, impoverished masses” mentality. Worse, Mr. Obama’s dismissal of the faith of the middle-class as a crutch skirts him dangerously close to the philosophy that “religion is the opiate of the masses.” I doubt Mr. Obama wants his face placed next to Karl Marx in too many campaign ads.

It will be interesting to see how Mr. Obama recovers from this. He is already trying to spin this thing, but the absolutism of his statements does not lend themselves too much spin. Eventually the media will tire of the story, but if Ms. Clinton is able to parse this into a greater than 10-point victory in Pennsylvania and a better than 7-point win in Indiana, she will be sowing that many more seeds of doubt in the minds of the remaining 300+ Superdelegates.

Regardless, Mr. Obama will still win North Carolina, probably Oregon, and maybe South Dakota and Montana as well. Ms. Clinton will win Kentucky, West Virginia, and probably Puerto Rico. Mr. Obama will win more pledged delegates and probably the majority of the popular vote. But even with these, we are now seeing the possibility that he might be seriously hobbled. Many polls and predictions will be made regarding viability, especially if Ms. Clinton comes into June with more perceived momentum than him.

At least 6 more weeks of debate are before us, maybe more. Enjoy the ride.