Swing States

Now that the Republican race is all but decided (I suspect that Mr. Huckabee will withdraw following losses in Washington, Kansas, DC and Maryland (and maybe Louisiana and Virginia) on Tuesday) most of the media attention will shift over to the Democrats, who won’t have anything decided until April or May at the earliest. Pundits are already looking at national polls to try and determine who best matches up with Mr. McCain as if to use those to break the outcome one way or the other.

However, the media’s love of national polls consistently overlooks the reality of our elections and why most of this type of talk is useless. We do not hold a national election for President. We hold 50 state elections for President. It only matters how each nominee does in the states and most of those states are already forgone conclusions. For example, despite Mr. Obama’s heavy draw of the African-American vote, there is little doubt that Mr. McCain will win most of the south. Perhaps he will be competitive in Georgia, but the numbers favor a Republican sweep unless there is a southern Democrat at the top of the ticket (and Ms. Clinton doesn’t count). Conversely, despite his appeals to independents and moderates, there is very little chance that Mr. McCain will take any states in New England or the mid-Atlantic outside of New Hampshire. He may have a chance in Pennsylvania if the African-American turnout in Philadelphia is depressed, but the Democrats should hold most of these states with a little effort.

Ultimately this election will probably turn on the same states as the last two:

Florida might be in play, but due to its high military population and Republican administration, Florida is trending strongly towards Mr. McCain at the moment.

Iowa will fall back to the Democrats due to Mr. McCain’s opposition to AG subsidies. This will more than offset the likely loss of New Hampshire to the Republicans, which is a more conservative state and likes Mr. McCain very much.

Colorado has been waving back and forth for a while. The Democrats have their convention in Denver and will be pushing hard to take this state.

Wisconsin will also be in play due to the narrow margins that have been showing up in the state in the past few years. Enough independents could be swayed to turn the state red for this election.

Connecticut would not normally be in play but it seems clear that Mr. Lieberman is endorsing Mr. McCain at the moment, although I don’t know what will happen when the general election comes. If he sticks by Mr. McCain’s side, it could put the state in play, although I still expect it to go blue.

The big one is probably Ohio. There is a Democratic government in power and the numbers have been narrow for a number of years. High turnout and Democratic mobility could turn the state blue with the proper amount of prompting. I would expect Mr. McCain to organize a deep grassroots base here early to try and overcome these natural Democratic advantages. I would also expect a prominent Ohio politician like Rob Portman to lead the team in the hopes of using that for his own purposes of challenging Mr. Strickland for the governor’s mansion in 2010.

Perhaps I’ll be wrong and more states will be in play for the election, but I’d be willing to bet that these will be the states that get the most discussion in terms of swing.