I Don't Want To Go On The Cart

Ms. Clinton is not dead yet. However for the first time in the Democratic nominating process, one of the final two candidates has been able to deliver a blow that drew blood. Now, the question remains whether this blow weakens Ms. Clinton and allows Mr. Obama to deliver a killing stroke, or if it just makes her mad and allows her to deliver a counterblow to Mr. Obama.

The real problem for Ms. Clinton is the manner in which she lost Wisconsin. Had she lost by five points and maintained her core demographics intact, no one would have batted an eye and her lead in Ohio would have probably stayed about the same. However, losing as bad as she did and with noticeable dings into her core-voting block open her up to serious attacks in Ohio. What’s worse; even if Ms. Clinton does win Ohio, she probably won’t win by a substantial margin. To really crack back into the race, Ms. Clinton needs to win Texas and win Ohio and Pennsylvania by 10 points or better.

Even with these types of wins, it is unlikely that Ms. Clinton will catch Mr. Obama in the pledged delegate counts. He is currently leading her by 120 in the hard delegates and when you add the estimates from the caucus states that will meet later in the year, his lead increases to almost 160. One can easily see why Ms. Clinton wants Michigan and Florida added back in. If you give Mr. Obama all the “unpledged” delegates from Michigan and add the two states to the overall totals, Ms. Clinton gains a net 60 delegates, putting her back within striking distance of Mr. Obama.

If Ms. Clinton is not able to make up the margin in pledged delegates and Florida and Michigan are not added back, her only argument left is her appeal in the swing states. There were 12 states in the 2004 Presidential Election that were decided by 5 points or less. Those states and their Democratic Primary winners are as follows:

Wisconsin – Obama
Iowa – Obama
New Mexico – Clinton
New Hampshire – Clinton
Ohio – March 4
Pennsylvania – April 22
Nevada – Clinton
Michigan – Clinton
Minnesota – Obama
Oregon – May 20
Colorado – Obama
Florida – Clinton

Ms. Clinton has a 5-4 lead in states with three yet to be played out. What’s more, given Mr. McCain’s position on Ag subsidies, Ms. Clinton can argue that Iowa will fall easily into Democratic hands. Ms. Clinton’s popularity with Hispanics might help her argue that she could win Colorado in a straight up race against Mr. McCain (as opposed to a caucus). However, all these arguments come to naught if she doesn’t win Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Still, I wouldn’t send for the gravediggers just yet.