The Clinton Endgame

As I mentioned yesterday, Mr. Obama is currently leading Ms. Clinton in hard pledged delegates by about 100. This lead is likely to grow as they will probably split Wisconsin but he will take a lead in Hawaii. Ms. Clinton has staked her political life on winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In addition to the notoriety of winning such large states, the numbers allow her to close back the gap between her and Mr. Obama fairly quickly.

Ohio: 92 delegates are allocated proportionally through the various congressional districts. Even with Ms. Clinton’s large lead in the polls, it is likely that the two candidates will split these in some close fashion (50-42 would be the edge of a very good night for Ms. Clinton). However, Ohio also allocates an additional 49 delegates based on the overall primary vote statewide. If she maintains her lead (and winning or losing very closely in Wisconsin will help her maintain that lead), she could take the lion’s share of these delegates.

Texas: 126 delegates are allocated proportionally through the state senate districts. Ms. Clinton will probably dominate most of these with Mr. Obama only taking the heavily African-American districts around Dallas. On a really good night, Ms. Clinton could take as many as 80 delegates this way. An additional 67 delegates are assigned via state convention in early June, by which point, some backroom deals might be going on. If not, the delegate allocation will probably follow the statewide results.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania operations just as Ohio with 103 delegates awarded through congressional districts and 55 delegates awarded statewide. Mr. Obama will clean up around Philadelphia, but Ms. Clinton is likely to win most of the rest of the state (with the exception of the enclave around State College). Again, if current polls hold, she could take a 20 to 30-delegate advantage in the state.

These may not sound like much but piled up, Ms. Clinton could close the gap between her and Mr. Obama quickly. Coupled with wins in Vermont and Rhode Island, Ms. Clinton could come out of March 4th tied in the pledged delegate count with only the Superdelegates providing a difference again. Then it comes down to the argument of who does better in the key battleground states. With wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida (plus close seconds in Missouri, Wisconsin, and New Mexico), Ms. Clinton will have a pretty good argument that she is the candidate who has the best chance to beat Mr. McCain where it actually counts. Winning the African-American vote by 90-10 margins in the South is impressive, but it doesn’t change the fact that nearly all of the Old Confederacy is going to be won by the Republicans.

Still, we have a long way to go. Perhaps the numbers in the large states will change once Mr. Obama starts devoting major resources to the big states. I’ve seen his commercial quite a few times, but nothing sways voters like up close and personal contact (one of the reasons I’ve advocated Ms. Clinton camping in Wisconsin all week).

Some have tried to compare Ms. Clinton’s strategy to Mr. Giuliani’s Florida strategy and declared her dead already. There is some truth to this, but there are a number of key differences. First, unlike Mr. Giuliani, Ms. Clinton already has several big wins under her belt. Second, it’s a two-person race, unlike Mr. Giuliani, who had to contend with four or five other candidates (including one who was a lot like him in Mr. McCain). Third, Ms. Clinton, unlike Mr. Giuliani, is not fading from the media spotlight. If anything, the media is starting to take a harder look and Mr. Obama and what his actual ideas are. She constantly gets put up in contrast to see how the two are different. Fourth, Ms. Clinton has a core constituency that is constant and viable across many states. Mr. Giuliani was heavily banking on Florida being South New York and didn’t appeal to many people outside this group.

So, I think it would behoove us all to not draw any conclusions as of just yet. Perhaps Mr. Obama will go on to win handily, but perhaps not. It is rather strange that the media is seeming very quick to proclaim this contest as almost done when their wet dream would be to go all the way to a brokered convention. Of course, this might be a function of employing nothing but talking heads rather than actual reporters and data analysts.