Election Foolishness

For a breakdown of why it is foolish to officially declare a frontrunner in the Democratic race, I give you the following numbers:

Mr. Obama currently has 1043 firmly pledged delegates to Ms. Clinton’s 947 delegates. There are an additional 20 pledged delegates that haven’t been assigned because the votes are still being counted in four locations (MD, VA, NM and Dems Abroad). There are 156 delegates from states that have had caucuses but will not actually assign national delegates until the state conventions sometime in late spring and early summer. A majority of these (probably 60-40) will go to Mr. Obama. This leaves 1,074 delegates left to be assigned in the remaining contests from February 19 through June 7. Then of course you have the 796 Superdelegates, bringing the overall total to 4,048 delegates.

I give all these numbers because with the losses that Ms. Clinton has suffered in the past eight contests (potentially 10), there has been a slow chorus of cries for her to concede defeat to Mr. Obama. However, that would be premature at the moment. She is nowhere near mathematically eliminated and the structure of the Democratic primaries strongly suggests that she will finish within striking distance (1700-1550 possibly). This would confirm Democratic fears that things would need to be decided by the Superdelegates.

The thought processes of the Superdelegates are difficult to ascertain. Some have firmly committed themselves to one candidate or another and will probably not back down until defeat is inevitable. Others might go the way of their state or congressional district (essentially punting on a decision and following the electorate). Still others are sitting back and waiting to see how the situation will best benefit them. Mr. Gore appears to be one of these as he has refused to pick either side and is clearly trying to retain his role as elder statesman and minor deity.

Ms. Clinton might bow to perceived momentum if she loses Texas and Ohio, but I highly doubt it. Both Clintons are not known for giving up and there are too many political favors still out there for her to throw in the towel just because Mr. Obama has a flashy statistic that ultimately doesn’t mean anything. This is a scrum that will continue for a while, despite the hysterical shrieks from party insiders to end things quickly.

Meanwhile, Mr. McCain added over 100 delegates to his total leaving him a little over 350 delegates short of the outright majority. Mr. Huckabee has said he’ll stay in to offer a choice to Republicans and I expect him to now stay in until the March 10th Mississippi primary. However, after that, his money should be about exhausted and there won’t be another primary until the Virgin Islands contest on April 4th. What’s more, 376 delegates will be assigned over the next month. If Mr. McCain breaks 60-40 with Mr. Huckabee, he will take about 226 delegates, which will put him around 1,050 or only 150 short of the majority. Given the nature of the states and the delegate allocation style that the Republicans will be competing in, it is even possible that Mr. McCain could gather even higher totals and be within spitting distance of the nomination by this point.

Despite this, I believe that Mr. Huckabee has the right to stay in as long as he wants and if people want to give him money to continue in this quest, that is their business. No one should withdraw until they are comfortable with the decision to do so.