Hard Delegate Math

To give an idea of how fluid things are, these are the delegate totals for the Democrats. Many of the caucuses have been won by Mr. Obama, but the national delegates won't be awarded until the state conventions. These are the hard numbers of committed delegates that each candidate has:

State Clinton Obama Edwards Uncommitted
IA June 14 - 45 delegates avail
NH 9 9 9
MI 0 0 0
NV April 20 - 25 delegates avail
SC 12 25 8
FL 0 0 0
AL 25 27 0
AK May 24 - 13 delegates avail
A Sam 2 1 0
AZ 31 25 0
AR 27 8 0
CA 207 163 0
CO May 17 - 55 delegates avail
CT 22 26 0
DE 6 9 0
Dem Abroad Feb 12 - 22 delegates avail
GA 27 57 0
ID June 14 - 18 delegates avail
IL 45 91 0
KS 9 23 0
MA 54 37 0
MN 24 48 0
MO 36 36 0
NJ 59 48 0
NM 13 12 0
NY 139 93 0
ND 5 8 0
OK 24 14 0
TN 34 21 0
UT 9 14 0
LA 15 23 0
NE 8 16 0
Vir Is 0 3 0
WA 24 53 0 1
ME 9 15 0
DC Feb 12 - 15 delegates avail
MD Feb 12 - 70 delegates avail
VA Feb 12 - 83 delegates avail
HI Feb 19 - 20 delegates avail
WI Feb 19 - 74 delegates avail
OH Mar 4 - 141 delegates avail
RI Mar 4 - 21 delegates avail
TX Mar 4 - 193 delegates avail
VT Mar 4 - 15 delegates avail
WY Mar 8 - 7 delegates avail
MS Mar 11 - 33 delegates avail
PA Apr 22 - 158 delegates avail
Guam May 3 - 3 delegates avail
IN May 6 - 72 delegates avail
NC May 6 - 155 delegates avail
WV May 13 - 28 delegates avail
KS May 17 - 11 delegates avail
KY May 20 - 51 delegates avail
OR May 20 - 52 delegates avail
WY May 24 - 5 delegates avail
MT Jun 3 - 16 delegates avail
SD Jun 3 - 15 delegates avail
PR Jun 7 - 55 delegates avail

A few places are on twice as they allocate delegates at two different events. A quick sum of the committed delegates shows Mr. Obama ahead 905 to 875 with Mr. Edwards retaining 17 delegates and 1 Uncommitted. Mr. Obama will gain more delegates as he won most of the caucuses that will meet in May and June to allocate delegates, but as I posted earlier, Ms. Clinton could snag more than she expects. She could also lose more delegates than she thought if she is percieved as weak or Mr. Obama makes better deals. Ms. Clinton does have the lead in pledged Superdelegates, but those don't mean much as they may change their mind once the convention rolls around.

Ultimately, no decisions should be made by either party until quite a few more of these contests have been decided. I would be very surprised if one candidate withdrew before June.