Because the USA defense fell asleep in the last 30 seconds of the match against Portugal, the US lost the guaranteed bid to the elimination round. But things are not hopeless. In fact, the situation is still pretty good for the USA. They face off against Germany on Thursday while Ghana will face off against Portugal at the same time (preventing any scoreboard watching by either team). They can advance to the next round by the following results:
1. Win against Germany. Obviously this is the best and would let the US win the group and advance to a match against the second place winner in group H (probably Algeria).
2. Draw against Germany. If the US and Germany tie, both teams will end up with 5 points and Germany would win the group due to goal differential. But both teams would have more points than the other two so the US would advance to face Belgium in the next round.
If the USA loses to Germany, it will come down to by how many goals they lose.
3. The USA loses and Portugal and Ghana tie. If Portugal and Ghana tie, they each will only get 1 point that will leave them with 2 points to the US's 4 and the US advances.
4. The USA loses by one goal and Ghana wins by one goal. If the US loses to Germany, they are going to be huge fans of Portugal. But if they lose by only one goal, they're not dead yet. Their goal differential will drop to 0 and if Ghana wins by only one goal, their goal differential will rise to 0. Then it goes to total goals scored. If the US and Ghana are still tied there (the US currently has 4 goals to Ghana's 3), then it goes to head-to-head, where the US has the tie-breaker. Of course, if Ghana wins by 2 or more goals or they end up having a higher total number of goals, Ghana will advance and the US goes home.
5. The USA loses, Portugal wins, and the goal differential is less than 5. Portugal has a goal differential of -4 while the US is at 1. So if Portugal wins, they still have a high hill to climb. Again, a US loss will leave them at a goal differential of 0 or worse while a Portugal win will push them up to -3 or better. But that's still a wide gap. Portugal would need to really pour it on and beat Ghana by 3 or better. Even if the US lost by two goals, they would still finish at -1 and Portugal would need to win by three goals to tie in goal differential. If they did that, Portugal would probably advance because the need to score more goals will probably push their total goals scored number over that of the US. But the odds are still in favor of the US in the event of a Portugal win over Ghana.
Assuming the US does advance to the field of 16, most of the scenarios would have them facing the winner of group H (almost certainly Belgium). Only a win against Germany would set them up against the second place team in group H (currently Algeria, although Russia still has a chance).
If the US managed to get by Belgium, they would likely be facing the powerhouse of Argentina in the next round. Things wouldn't be much better on the other side of the bracket. If the US beat the second place team of group H, they would likely be looking at a match with either France or Italy, two of the top squads in the world.
But that is getting ahead of things. First, win or tie against Germany and then worry about what comes next.
Monday, June 23, 2014
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
Monday, April 14, 2014
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Monday, March 10, 2014
Let It Go (Saturation)
The metal version:
The Bob Herzog Traffic Parody version:
The Dad Is Sick of This Song version
Olaf's song is better anyway.
The Bob Herzog Traffic Parody version:
The Dad Is Sick of This Song version
Olaf's song is better anyway.
Friday, February 21, 2014
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Snow Stats
Here's a fun little chart to examine:
For Cincinnati, through Feb. 16, we have had 44.0". Our normal snowfall total by this point is 16.2" or 37.8" above normal. Hopefully it'll be another 35 years before we see these type of numbers again.
For Cincinnati, through Feb. 16, we have had 44.0". Our normal snowfall total by this point is 16.2" or 37.8" above normal. Hopefully it'll be another 35 years before we see these type of numbers again.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Alternate Team Skating Scoring System
Last night Russia won the gold medal for the new figure skating team competition. Canada took silver while the US took bronze. The only real problem was that because of the scoring system used after each section of the competition, Russia and Canada had secured their medals with two events remaining and the US secured the bronze before the final segment. This led to bit of an anti-climax as the final event (long program ice dancing) became an exhibition rather than having any relevance to the medals.
Mrs. X and I thought of a small tweak to the scoring system that might have helped put a little more tension into the competition. It wouldn't have affected the outcome (which is what it should have been based on the performances) but maybe it would have made aspects of the competition matter a little more.
The competition starts with ten teams and they receive 10 though 1 points based on their rankings in each segment. For example, Japan won the men's short program and received 10 points, Russia got second and received 9 points, etc. The US finished 7th and received 4 points. This continues for four rounds (men's short program, women's short program, pairs short program, and ice dancing short program) and then the competition continues with the top five countries.
Mrs. X and I had no problem with this part and the first phase of the competition ended with Russia in first place with 37 points, Canada in second with 32 points, the US in third with 27 points, Japan in fourth with 24 points, and Italy in fifth with 23 points.
In the second phase (same events but long program) the competitors were awarded 10 through 6 points based on their finishes in each event. This is where the trouble is as there doesn't seem to be enough room for a team in a lower position (say Japan) to climb up and threaten a leading team (like Canada). So our thought was to change the scoring system so that first place would get 10 points, second 8, third 6, fourth 4, and fifth 2. This would give high reward for success and increase the risk of devastation for a low finish. It also would give a little more weight to the second half of the competition while not diminishing the importance of jumping out to as much of a lead as possible in the first half. So let's see how it would have played out yesterday.
First was the pairs. The results and combined team score would have been as follows:
1. Russia - 10 (47)
2. Canada - 8 (40)
3. Italy - 6 (29)
4. US - 4 (31)
5. Japan - 2 (26)
Next is the men's competition:
1. Russia - 10 (57)
2. Canada - 8 (48)
3. Japan - 6 (32)
4. US - 4 (35)
5. Italy - 2 (31)
Russia and Canada are still pulling away for the gold and silver, but with the risk of only getting 2 points for a last place finish, Russia hasn't secured the gold medal yet. Russia could have ended up with 61 points if they collapsed and Canada could have surged up for 68 points. This was unlikely given how things were going, but the pressure would have been there. The US, Italy, and Japan were also all tightly bunched and any one of them could have surged for the bronze.
The women's results would have done this:
1. Russia - 10 (67)
2. US - 8 (43)
3. Italy - 6 (37)
4. Japan - 4 (36)
5. Canada - 2 (50)
Now, Russia would have won the gold medal based on these results, rendering the final event meaningless for them. But, because of their poor performance, Canada has allowed the US to creep back in with a chance for the silver (unlikely, but possible). Likewise, a US collapse would allow Italy and Japan the chance to sneak in for the Bronze. These were unlikely scenarios, but the fact that they were possible would have kept tension and forced the American and Canadian ice dancing teams to make sure they performed at their best.
The ice dancing results would have had the final standings as:
1. US - 10 (53)
2. Canada - 8 (58)
3. Russia - 6 (73)
4. Italy - 4 (41)
5. Japan - 2 (38)
Ultimately the results would have been the same, but there would have been a bit more tension going into the final round. It's just one possibility for tweaking, but one I think that would be easiest to implement going into the 2018 games.
Mrs. X and I thought of a small tweak to the scoring system that might have helped put a little more tension into the competition. It wouldn't have affected the outcome (which is what it should have been based on the performances) but maybe it would have made aspects of the competition matter a little more.
The competition starts with ten teams and they receive 10 though 1 points based on their rankings in each segment. For example, Japan won the men's short program and received 10 points, Russia got second and received 9 points, etc. The US finished 7th and received 4 points. This continues for four rounds (men's short program, women's short program, pairs short program, and ice dancing short program) and then the competition continues with the top five countries.
Mrs. X and I had no problem with this part and the first phase of the competition ended with Russia in first place with 37 points, Canada in second with 32 points, the US in third with 27 points, Japan in fourth with 24 points, and Italy in fifth with 23 points.
In the second phase (same events but long program) the competitors were awarded 10 through 6 points based on their finishes in each event. This is where the trouble is as there doesn't seem to be enough room for a team in a lower position (say Japan) to climb up and threaten a leading team (like Canada). So our thought was to change the scoring system so that first place would get 10 points, second 8, third 6, fourth 4, and fifth 2. This would give high reward for success and increase the risk of devastation for a low finish. It also would give a little more weight to the second half of the competition while not diminishing the importance of jumping out to as much of a lead as possible in the first half. So let's see how it would have played out yesterday.
First was the pairs. The results and combined team score would have been as follows:
1. Russia - 10 (47)
2. Canada - 8 (40)
3. Italy - 6 (29)
4. US - 4 (31)
5. Japan - 2 (26)
Next is the men's competition:
1. Russia - 10 (57)
2. Canada - 8 (48)
3. Japan - 6 (32)
4. US - 4 (35)
5. Italy - 2 (31)
Russia and Canada are still pulling away for the gold and silver, but with the risk of only getting 2 points for a last place finish, Russia hasn't secured the gold medal yet. Russia could have ended up with 61 points if they collapsed and Canada could have surged up for 68 points. This was unlikely given how things were going, but the pressure would have been there. The US, Italy, and Japan were also all tightly bunched and any one of them could have surged for the bronze.
The women's results would have done this:
1. Russia - 10 (67)
2. US - 8 (43)
3. Italy - 6 (37)
4. Japan - 4 (36)
5. Canada - 2 (50)
Now, Russia would have won the gold medal based on these results, rendering the final event meaningless for them. But, because of their poor performance, Canada has allowed the US to creep back in with a chance for the silver (unlikely, but possible). Likewise, a US collapse would allow Italy and Japan the chance to sneak in for the Bronze. These were unlikely scenarios, but the fact that they were possible would have kept tension and forced the American and Canadian ice dancing teams to make sure they performed at their best.
The ice dancing results would have had the final standings as:
1. US - 10 (53)
2. Canada - 8 (58)
3. Russia - 6 (73)
4. Italy - 4 (41)
5. Japan - 2 (38)
Ultimately the results would have been the same, but there would have been a bit more tension going into the final round. It's just one possibility for tweaking, but one I think that would be easiest to implement going into the 2018 games.
Monday, February 03, 2014
Coffee Needed
Well, when I'm wrong, I'm hella wrong. I was thinking the Super Bowl would be a close game with the Broncos squeaking it out at the end. Instead, the Broncos swapped places with the Cincinnati Bengals and got torched. The game was over by halftime and I didn't even get the fun of seeing the Broncos get blanked (which would have at least been a Super Bowl first) to justify watching this lopsided game.
Now if you were rooting for Seattle, I'm sure you've never had a better three hours. But for the rest of us, it was boring. I'd be curious to see if there was any significant drop in the viewing audience after halftime. I must admit, I thought about switching over to Downton Abbey, but since there isn't much TV on Monday and Tuesday, we decided to keep it on and save Downton for when there was nothing else on.
I'm not even going to talk about the commercials because none of them stuck out in my mind at all. I think the only one that even registered a chuckle was the Heinz ketchup ad and that was best summed up by Mrs. X and her old college roommate who both questioned whether or not people even use glass ketchup bottles anymore.
So now the offseason talk will center on Manning and how long it will be before he retires. I'm sure the doctors will have much to say about that, but if he is able to play for another season or two, he will. I also believe that after this performance if Mr. Manning were to return to the Super Bowl and win, he would be obligated to retire.
Here's to next season where every team starts on equal footing and only the Cleveland Browns have already been eliminated from the playoffs.
Now if you were rooting for Seattle, I'm sure you've never had a better three hours. But for the rest of us, it was boring. I'd be curious to see if there was any significant drop in the viewing audience after halftime. I must admit, I thought about switching over to Downton Abbey, but since there isn't much TV on Monday and Tuesday, we decided to keep it on and save Downton for when there was nothing else on.
I'm not even going to talk about the commercials because none of them stuck out in my mind at all. I think the only one that even registered a chuckle was the Heinz ketchup ad and that was best summed up by Mrs. X and her old college roommate who both questioned whether or not people even use glass ketchup bottles anymore.
So now the offseason talk will center on Manning and how long it will be before he retires. I'm sure the doctors will have much to say about that, but if he is able to play for another season or two, he will. I also believe that after this performance if Mr. Manning were to return to the Super Bowl and win, he would be obligated to retire.
Here's to next season where every team starts on equal footing and only the Cleveland Browns have already been eliminated from the playoffs.
Friday, January 31, 2014
Salmon and Omlettes
So I was right in my week 2 prediction of the Super Bowl. I was also right in that my championship picks would be 1-1. Of course the refereeing contributed a bit, but San Francisco still ultimately lost this game rather than Seattle winning it, but that is neither here nor there.
So on to the upcoming game. Most people are focusing on the sexy match-up of Denver's #1 offense vs. Seattle's #1 defense and with good reason. But, I'm inclined to think that the game may very well be decided at the other end of the spectrum: Denver's mediocre defense versus Seattle's inept offense. I'm certain that Denver will do to Seattle almost exactly what they did to Tom Brady: stack the box to contain the running game and force Seattle to throw it. Russell Wilson is a decent quarterback, but he's no Tom Brady. His O-line didn't do a very good job of protecting him against San Francisco; fortunately, he can run, which is something that Tom Brady is not known for. Denver will probably flush Wilson out of the pocket a lot. They're going to have to try and contain him or just make sure his passes are wobbly enough that they miss their target, a job that shouldn't be too hard.
On the other side, the onus is going to be on the Denver O-line to keep Peyton Manning upright. New England never touched Manning and he destroyed them as a result. Seattle did get after Kaepernick but he has scrambling ability, a noted lack when it comes to Manning. I see Manning taking a lot of hits and the question is whether he'll be able to get rid of the ball early enough to where he can avoid turnovers. If he can do that, I think Denver has a chance to grind Seattle down and score a TD or two as the game winds down.
Two other factors must also be looked at. First the weather. Denver is a cold weather team who is somewhat used to playing in the elements, although Manning is notably less effective in those cases. Seattle, while not a dome team, does get a measure of protection in their stadium and rarely face temperatures around freezing. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-low 30's for the majority of the game, but precipitation (whether rain or snow) will likely hold off until late. Messy weather would be an advantage to Seattle as these things tend to favor defenses, but a cool to cold and dry night will likely give Denver a slight advantage.
The other factor is experience. Both teams are mostly young with a lot of new faces. But, Seattle is bringing no one with Super Bowl experience. Denver is bringing four players who have been to the dance before, Peyton Manning being the most notable, and their head coach John Fox has coached in a Super Bowl once before (his Carolina Panthers lost to New England back in Super Bowl XXXVIII). So the ability to eliminate the gee-whiz factor also favors Denver.
I think just about everyone is mixed and I think this is going to be a close game. But I see too many little things shifting Denver's way. It is also important to remember that while Seattle is a beast of a team, when away from home they have seemed far more mortal. There will be a lot of Seattle fans at the Super Bowl, but this will not be a home game with the 12th man advantage. Ultimately, I'm going to say that Denver wins the game. I think it will be close and could require 4th quarter heroics, but I still see Denver as taking the crown at the end of the day.
So on to the upcoming game. Most people are focusing on the sexy match-up of Denver's #1 offense vs. Seattle's #1 defense and with good reason. But, I'm inclined to think that the game may very well be decided at the other end of the spectrum: Denver's mediocre defense versus Seattle's inept offense. I'm certain that Denver will do to Seattle almost exactly what they did to Tom Brady: stack the box to contain the running game and force Seattle to throw it. Russell Wilson is a decent quarterback, but he's no Tom Brady. His O-line didn't do a very good job of protecting him against San Francisco; fortunately, he can run, which is something that Tom Brady is not known for. Denver will probably flush Wilson out of the pocket a lot. They're going to have to try and contain him or just make sure his passes are wobbly enough that they miss their target, a job that shouldn't be too hard.
On the other side, the onus is going to be on the Denver O-line to keep Peyton Manning upright. New England never touched Manning and he destroyed them as a result. Seattle did get after Kaepernick but he has scrambling ability, a noted lack when it comes to Manning. I see Manning taking a lot of hits and the question is whether he'll be able to get rid of the ball early enough to where he can avoid turnovers. If he can do that, I think Denver has a chance to grind Seattle down and score a TD or two as the game winds down.
Two other factors must also be looked at. First the weather. Denver is a cold weather team who is somewhat used to playing in the elements, although Manning is notably less effective in those cases. Seattle, while not a dome team, does get a measure of protection in their stadium and rarely face temperatures around freezing. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-low 30's for the majority of the game, but precipitation (whether rain or snow) will likely hold off until late. Messy weather would be an advantage to Seattle as these things tend to favor defenses, but a cool to cold and dry night will likely give Denver a slight advantage.
The other factor is experience. Both teams are mostly young with a lot of new faces. But, Seattle is bringing no one with Super Bowl experience. Denver is bringing four players who have been to the dance before, Peyton Manning being the most notable, and their head coach John Fox has coached in a Super Bowl once before (his Carolina Panthers lost to New England back in Super Bowl XXXVIII). So the ability to eliminate the gee-whiz factor also favors Denver.
I think just about everyone is mixed and I think this is going to be a close game. But I see too many little things shifting Denver's way. It is also important to remember that while Seattle is a beast of a team, when away from home they have seemed far more mortal. There will be a lot of Seattle fans at the Super Bowl, but this will not be a home game with the 12th man advantage. Ultimately, I'm going to say that Denver wins the game. I think it will be close and could require 4th quarter heroics, but I still see Denver as taking the crown at the end of the day.
Friday, January 24, 2014
Monday, January 13, 2014
Championship Games
In contrast to Wild Card week, I went 4 for 4 so I'm at .500 when it comes to picking. From that we can deduce that I will get one game right and one game wrong.
1. New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - I didn't watch most of the New England game so I only saw the break away when the wheels came completely off for Indianapolis. New England looked good, but anyone can look good when they break for 50+ yard runs and the other team has been forced to abandon the running game while only having one good wide receiver. In contrast to many of the sports writers out there, I didn't think that Denver looked that good. San Diego did a very good job of keeping the offense in check and it was the same passing failing that we saw in the first half of the Cincinnati game that kept San Diego off the scoreboard for three quarters. Even with a depleted offense, I don't see Tom Brady missing as many of those wide open receivers. But, New England's defense is not as big or strong as San Diego and Indianapolis was able to put 22 points on the board (keeping it to within one score) until things fell apart in the second half. The first meeting this season was close and New England rallied to win at home. I'm going to stick with Denver, only because I think Tom Brady is still missing a genuine go-to guy.
2. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Seattle's offense is still mediocre at best. New Orleans had a real shot to win that game, especially if Marshawn Lynch is removed from the equation. It is true that San Francisco has not won in Seattle for several seasons now, but Seattle hasn't won in San Francisco either. San Francisco has more weapons than they had in their last meeting and they did a pretty good job against a good defensive team in the form of Carolina. Carolina arguably has the better offense as well and the Niners did a good job containing them. I picked a Denver-Seattle Superbowl and I'd still like to see that, but I'm not feeling Seattle at this time. They seem to be lacking something, despite that great defense. I'm going to pick San Francisco to get over the hump in Seattle and take the rubber match, although I think it will be a close match.
1. New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - I didn't watch most of the New England game so I only saw the break away when the wheels came completely off for Indianapolis. New England looked good, but anyone can look good when they break for 50+ yard runs and the other team has been forced to abandon the running game while only having one good wide receiver. In contrast to many of the sports writers out there, I didn't think that Denver looked that good. San Diego did a very good job of keeping the offense in check and it was the same passing failing that we saw in the first half of the Cincinnati game that kept San Diego off the scoreboard for three quarters. Even with a depleted offense, I don't see Tom Brady missing as many of those wide open receivers. But, New England's defense is not as big or strong as San Diego and Indianapolis was able to put 22 points on the board (keeping it to within one score) until things fell apart in the second half. The first meeting this season was close and New England rallied to win at home. I'm going to stick with Denver, only because I think Tom Brady is still missing a genuine go-to guy.
2. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Seattle's offense is still mediocre at best. New Orleans had a real shot to win that game, especially if Marshawn Lynch is removed from the equation. It is true that San Francisco has not won in Seattle for several seasons now, but Seattle hasn't won in San Francisco either. San Francisco has more weapons than they had in their last meeting and they did a pretty good job against a good defensive team in the form of Carolina. Carolina arguably has the better offense as well and the Niners did a good job containing them. I picked a Denver-Seattle Superbowl and I'd still like to see that, but I'm not feeling Seattle at this time. They seem to be lacking something, despite that great defense. I'm going to pick San Francisco to get over the hump in Seattle and take the rubber match, although I think it will be a close match.
Friday, January 10, 2014
Divisional Round Match-Ups
After going 0-4 in my picks, I would advise on going opposite of whatever I pick.
1. New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Most folks, myself included, are going to pick Seattle in this game. Seattle is a very hard place to play and especially at home, the Seattle defense is very good. Still, as was shown in Philadelphia, the New Orleans defense isn't bad either and Drew Breese and the Saints offense will put some points on the board. If the Saints defense plays out of their mind, they have a chance. But I still think Seattle wins the game.
2. Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - It's not impossible to beat the Patriots at home, but it is hard. If Tom Brady had his full compliment of offensive weapons, I'd pick New England easily. But they don't. After the performance last week, you think it would be easy to pick Indy. But they were at home and one cannot overlook the fact that Indianapolis got into a 38-10 hole. If KC had killed clock or double covered TY Hilton, Kansas City would be headed to New England. In light of that, I'm leaning towards New England, mostly on the strength of being veterans. Lacking weapons, they may have to settle for FGs a few times, but I think they'll know how to crack Indy in a way that KC did not.
3. San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers - Carolina beat the Niners in San Francisco a few weeks ago. But, San Francisco is a veteran team that is unlikely to crack if things get a little out of hand. Likewise, Carolina has shown a distinct lack of ability when it comes to scoring points. This may be the lowest scoring game of the four and I actually think that will favor San Francisco. I'll take them on a narrow edge as the moment gets a little too big for Carolina.
4. San Diego at Denver - Here's where it matters. We all know Peyton Manning is great during the regular season. But he's not great in the playoffs. What's more, Denver's defense is not very good. San Diego showed a great deal of patience and dedication to the running game against a good Cincinnati defense. Imagine what they can do against Denver. What's more, as a divisional opponent San Diego is not afraid of Denver, having beaten them once already this season. Still, I'm going to stick with Denver. They are the favorite and I don't feel inclined to go against them until someone actually beats them. Or until the Superbowl when I'll be more objective.
1. New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Most folks, myself included, are going to pick Seattle in this game. Seattle is a very hard place to play and especially at home, the Seattle defense is very good. Still, as was shown in Philadelphia, the New Orleans defense isn't bad either and Drew Breese and the Saints offense will put some points on the board. If the Saints defense plays out of their mind, they have a chance. But I still think Seattle wins the game.
2. Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - It's not impossible to beat the Patriots at home, but it is hard. If Tom Brady had his full compliment of offensive weapons, I'd pick New England easily. But they don't. After the performance last week, you think it would be easy to pick Indy. But they were at home and one cannot overlook the fact that Indianapolis got into a 38-10 hole. If KC had killed clock or double covered TY Hilton, Kansas City would be headed to New England. In light of that, I'm leaning towards New England, mostly on the strength of being veterans. Lacking weapons, they may have to settle for FGs a few times, but I think they'll know how to crack Indy in a way that KC did not.
3. San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers - Carolina beat the Niners in San Francisco a few weeks ago. But, San Francisco is a veteran team that is unlikely to crack if things get a little out of hand. Likewise, Carolina has shown a distinct lack of ability when it comes to scoring points. This may be the lowest scoring game of the four and I actually think that will favor San Francisco. I'll take them on a narrow edge as the moment gets a little too big for Carolina.
4. San Diego at Denver - Here's where it matters. We all know Peyton Manning is great during the regular season. But he's not great in the playoffs. What's more, Denver's defense is not very good. San Diego showed a great deal of patience and dedication to the running game against a good Cincinnati defense. Imagine what they can do against Denver. What's more, as a divisional opponent San Diego is not afraid of Denver, having beaten them once already this season. Still, I'm going to stick with Denver. They are the favorite and I don't feel inclined to go against them until someone actually beats them. Or until the Superbowl when I'll be more objective.
Saturday, January 04, 2014
First Round Results
1. Kansas City at Indianapolis Colts - A very entertaining game and something the Chiefs are going to want to forget very quickly. In a way, it sort of represented their season in a nutshell. They jumped out to a 28-point lead, containing a potent offense (like starting 9-0 with a good defense) only to fall apart and let the other team outscore you 35-6 in the rest of the game (finishing the season 2-5). Hopefully the Colts will be just as entertaining in the second round. If I were New England, I'd be a little would be a little worried about facing a team this confident about scoring points, especially with their diminished offensive capability. (0-1)
2. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagle - So the Saints finally won outside of the bayou. The last eight minutes (which I missed) went pretty much what the Colts-Chiefs should have been where the Eagles got the go-ahead touchdown but the Saints had plenty of time to get into field goal range. The Saints looked sloppy the entire first half except for their running game and they should thank their lucky stars that the Eagles made just enough bad decisions that it was nearly a tied game at the half. The Saints now travel to Seattle and Drew Breese will need to be his Superdome self to overcome that defense. Seattle's offense is soft enough that the Saints defense that played against Philly could hold them down and give New Orleans a chance. (0-2)
3. San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Good Dalton played in the first half. Bad Dalton played in the second half. It is interesting that the Chiefs and the Eagles both won the turnover battle and yet they lost. San Diego, on the other hand, won the turnover battle and won the game, as the percentages say you should. Some of this wasn't fully Dalton's fault as his O-line did not do a good job of protecting him in the second half or in creating lanes for the running game. But the key of the game really was the Bernard fumble near the end of the first half. If the Bengals had gotten a TD there, they would have gone into the locker room up 14-7 and the Bengals would never have been down by more than one score through all the bad moments in the second half. San Diego will now play Denver for a third time in a rubber match. (0-3)
4. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - This was about as close as I thought it would be. I missed most of the first half due to other commitments, but the second half was entertaining. As expected, things bounced back and forth and the Niners won when they were able to drive the field and kick a field goal as time expired. The key seems to be that the Packers could not contain Colin Kaepernick whenever he was flushed out of the pocket. He personally ran for over 100 yards and picked up several key first downs when needed. There was a moment late in the fourth quarter when the Packers had a chance to grab an interception but the defender couldn't hold on. So, now we look forward to a rematch between the Niners and the Carolina Panthers. Carolina won that game in San Francisco so this should be an interesting match up. (0-4)
2. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagle - So the Saints finally won outside of the bayou. The last eight minutes (which I missed) went pretty much what the Colts-Chiefs should have been where the Eagles got the go-ahead touchdown but the Saints had plenty of time to get into field goal range. The Saints looked sloppy the entire first half except for their running game and they should thank their lucky stars that the Eagles made just enough bad decisions that it was nearly a tied game at the half. The Saints now travel to Seattle and Drew Breese will need to be his Superdome self to overcome that defense. Seattle's offense is soft enough that the Saints defense that played against Philly could hold them down and give New Orleans a chance. (0-2)
3. San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Good Dalton played in the first half. Bad Dalton played in the second half. It is interesting that the Chiefs and the Eagles both won the turnover battle and yet they lost. San Diego, on the other hand, won the turnover battle and won the game, as the percentages say you should. Some of this wasn't fully Dalton's fault as his O-line did not do a good job of protecting him in the second half or in creating lanes for the running game. But the key of the game really was the Bernard fumble near the end of the first half. If the Bengals had gotten a TD there, they would have gone into the locker room up 14-7 and the Bengals would never have been down by more than one score through all the bad moments in the second half. San Diego will now play Denver for a third time in a rubber match. (0-3)
4. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - This was about as close as I thought it would be. I missed most of the first half due to other commitments, but the second half was entertaining. As expected, things bounced back and forth and the Niners won when they were able to drive the field and kick a field goal as time expired. The key seems to be that the Packers could not contain Colin Kaepernick whenever he was flushed out of the pocket. He personally ran for over 100 yards and picked up several key first downs when needed. There was a moment late in the fourth quarter when the Packers had a chance to grab an interception but the defender couldn't hold on. So, now we look forward to a rematch between the Niners and the Carolina Panthers. Carolina won that game in San Francisco so this should be an interesting match up. (0-4)
Friday, January 03, 2014
Frozen Cheese
Remember the NFC Championship game from a few years ago (Jan. 2008) when the NY Giants upset the Green Bay Packers (Brett Favre's last game as a Packer) and how cold it was? It was -4F with a -24F wind chill and Coach Tom Coughlin had frostbite on his cheeks. That was the 5th coldest game in NFL history.
Sunday's game against San Francisco is lining up to beat that and could make a run at the Freezer Bowl (1982 AFC Championship in Cincinnati) for the #2 spot. The current forecast has a game-time temperature of -8F and an unknown wind chill. The Freezer Bowl is #2 on actual temperature (-9F) with the Ice Bowl (1967 NFL Championship in Green Bay) taking the #1 spot (-13F), although the Freezer Bowl is #1 when you factor in the wind (-59F vs. -48F for the Ice Bowl).
San Francisco isn't the warmest place to play, but it ain't Green Bay. Hopefully we'll actually be able to see the game as Green Bay hasn't sold out the game yet.
Sunday's game against San Francisco is lining up to beat that and could make a run at the Freezer Bowl (1982 AFC Championship in Cincinnati) for the #2 spot. The current forecast has a game-time temperature of -8F and an unknown wind chill. The Freezer Bowl is #2 on actual temperature (-9F) with the Ice Bowl (1967 NFL Championship in Green Bay) taking the #1 spot (-13F), although the Freezer Bowl is #1 when you factor in the wind (-59F vs. -48F for the Ice Bowl).
San Francisco isn't the warmest place to play, but it ain't Green Bay. Hopefully we'll actually be able to see the game as Green Bay hasn't sold out the game yet.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Wild Card Games
1. Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts - Kansas City rested most of their A-team and still almost beat the San Diego Chargers. I think that says more about San Diego than anything else. Of course, the B-team doesn't get a chance to play much so they were gunning hard. Indianapolis beat Kansas City at Arrowhead just a couple weeks ago (Dec 22) so Indy should be able to take care of the Chiefs without too much fuss right? Not necessarily. The key to this game will be whether or not the Chiefs get pressure on Andrew Luck. If they can get to him, the Colts will have a hard time scoring. If not, even the new and improved KC offense won't be enough to keep up with the Colts. I think the Chiefs have something to prove and Andy Ried's bad luck in the playoffs usually only hits in the championship game. I'm giving the edge to Kansas City in this one.
2. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - The Saints are dynamite at home. This game is not at home. The Eagles are hot and should be jazzed over their emotional win over Dallas. The Saints have been downright abysmal when they are away and outdoors. I think Drew Breeze and company will be able to take advantage of the Eagles early as they will likely be a little too amped up for the start of the game, but the Eagles will come back and send the Saints back to New Orleans for the rest of the season.
3. San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - When you look at this on paper, this game should not be close. San Diego needed overtime and a couple of questionable calls to even get into the playoffs. Cincinnati is perfect at home this year and they handled the Chargers fairly well when they played in San Diego just after Thanksgiving. Yet, I am not sold on the Bengals ability to close the deal. Andy Dalton gets very jittery in spotlight games while Philip Rivers has been around for a long time and will not be bothered much by the crowds. I think the Bengals will win, but the coaches should give the Chargers a heavy diet of the running game to start before opening up the passing game. If they can get a rushing touchdown or two and bleed the clock to make Philip Rivers get pass happy, things will go a lot smoother over the course of the game.
4. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - I'm have a hard time getting a bead on this game. I've seen a lot of San Francisco games this season and they have been very up and down. Green Bay on the other hand is a very good team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. The math says to go with Niners, but my gut says to go with the Packers. I think the key to this game is going to be whether Green Bay can play any kind of defense. Colin Kaepernick can be erratic when he throws too much and the Niners are better when they run the ball more. I'm rating this one as a complete toss-up but I'm going to give Green Bay a very tiny edge. Rodgers will attack the wounded Niner's secondary and that will open things up for Eddie Lacy. If Green Bay gets any kind of a lead, Kaepernick might take one too many chances. I also question San Francisco's ability to fully function in the cold wind as Green Bay does. Still, this is definitely the one I'm least confident on.
2. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - The Saints are dynamite at home. This game is not at home. The Eagles are hot and should be jazzed over their emotional win over Dallas. The Saints have been downright abysmal when they are away and outdoors. I think Drew Breeze and company will be able to take advantage of the Eagles early as they will likely be a little too amped up for the start of the game, but the Eagles will come back and send the Saints back to New Orleans for the rest of the season.
3. San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - When you look at this on paper, this game should not be close. San Diego needed overtime and a couple of questionable calls to even get into the playoffs. Cincinnati is perfect at home this year and they handled the Chargers fairly well when they played in San Diego just after Thanksgiving. Yet, I am not sold on the Bengals ability to close the deal. Andy Dalton gets very jittery in spotlight games while Philip Rivers has been around for a long time and will not be bothered much by the crowds. I think the Bengals will win, but the coaches should give the Chargers a heavy diet of the running game to start before opening up the passing game. If they can get a rushing touchdown or two and bleed the clock to make Philip Rivers get pass happy, things will go a lot smoother over the course of the game.
4. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - I'm have a hard time getting a bead on this game. I've seen a lot of San Francisco games this season and they have been very up and down. Green Bay on the other hand is a very good team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. The math says to go with Niners, but my gut says to go with the Packers. I think the key to this game is going to be whether Green Bay can play any kind of defense. Colin Kaepernick can be erratic when he throws too much and the Niners are better when they run the ball more. I'm rating this one as a complete toss-up but I'm going to give Green Bay a very tiny edge. Rodgers will attack the wounded Niner's secondary and that will open things up for Eddie Lacy. If Green Bay gets any kind of a lead, Kaepernick might take one too many chances. I also question San Francisco's ability to fully function in the cold wind as Green Bay does. Still, this is definitely the one I'm least confident on.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Steelers Out
Let's be honest. Relying on the Kansas City scrubs to beat San Diego is not a reliable way of making the playoffs. Steelers fans can hate on Ryan Succop all they want, but this is something tangible to the Steelers that cost them the playoffs just as much:
Monday, December 23, 2013
To Week 17
It's probably been quite a while since we've had so much unsettled going into the final week of the season. Yes, there's always been one or two games that settle things, but it seems that just about nothing is secure at the moment.
AFC
The Division winners are all set as is the #5 seed (Kansas City). But seeding is still up in the air and there is going to be a rumpus for the #6 spot.
1. Denver has won the West and secured at least a first-round bye. But they need to either win their final game at Oakland, or have the Patriots lose to secure the overall #1 seed.
2. New England has won the East but needs Denver to lose to take home-field. What's more, should they somehow lose at home to Buffalo and Cincinnati wins against the Ravens, the Patriots would fall into the #3 seed as the Bengals have the tie-breaker in a head-to-head win. That seems unlikely, but it is possible.
3. The Bengals have won the North and close out against the Ravens. If they win and New England loses, they jump to the #2 seed. If they lose and Indianapolis wins, they fall to the #4 seed and a date with Kansas City. So a win preserves the #3 seed and kicks the Ravens out of the playoffs, which seems like motivation enough to me to try to win.
4. Indianapolis has won the South and closes out against the Jaguars at home. If they win and the Bengals lose, the Colts will be elevated to the #3 seed but they cannot do any better than that. Knowing that, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Colts start sitting some of their starters in the second half, no matter what the state of the game.
5. Kansas City is locked into the #5 seed. They finish at San Diego.
6. This is where things get real interesting. Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego are all tied at 8-7. Miami has the tie-breaker as they have the best conference record of the three. Baltimore follows and San Diego rounds it out. So, if Miami wins their final game against the Jets, they are in. If Miami loses and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets in. If both lose and San Diego wins, they get in. If all three lose and Pittsburgh wins their final game against Cleveland, they actually vault over the lot and grab the #6 seed. That seems unlikely to me. Of the three Miami certainly can win, although games with the Jets have been known to be very odd. After that, I'd actually favor San Diego as I expect the Chiefs to be sitting a number of their better players, knowing they will be on the road and playing that first round of the playoffs.
So, that gives us four teams fighting for one spot. The rest is just the juggle of seeding.
NFC
The NFC actually still has not settled any of it's division winners yet, although two are pretty close to being settled.
1. Seattle will clinch automatically if San Francisco loses tonight (not likely against Atlanta), otherwise they'll have to win against the Rams next week, which would win the division and secure home-field. On the off chance they do lose, the 49ers could vault over them to take the division if they win tonight against Atlanta and next week against Arizona.
2. The Carolina Panthers locked a playoff spot win their win against New Orleans yesterday. If they win against Atlanta next week, they secure the division and the #2 seed. Seattle has the tie-breaker so Carolina can only secure home-field if San Francisco vaults up to win the West. Should Carolina lose to Atlanta, New Orleans could sneak back in and the Panthers would fall to either the #5 or #6 seed.
3. Philadelphia destroyed the Bears last night and set itself in the #3 spot for the moment. But the game against Dallas (which has been moved to be the Sunday Night game) will decide who wins the East. Win and you're in. Lose and you stay home. Dallas has a better record against the NFC than the Bears so whoever wins this game will take the #3 seed.
4. Detroit's collapse opened things up and now it's a head-to-head between Chicago and Green Bay to decide the North and the #4 seed. Like the East, win and you're in, lose and you go home. Chicago could settle for a tie as well.
5. Now things get murky. San Francisco holds this spot at the moment and assuming they win against Atlanta, will continue to hold it. In fact, if they win tonight, the 49ers secure a playoff spot. They actually could have things go so that they could the #1 overall seed, but that would require them to win out and have both Seattle and Carolina lose and that seems unlikely. But, if Seattle loses next week and San Francisco wins, they could take the division and Seattle would fall to this spot.
6. New Orleans had a first-round bye in their hand and now they face the possibility of missing the playoffs. If New Orleans wins their final game against Tampa Bay, they're in. If they lose, they open the door for the Arizona Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose their last game to San Francisco, the Saints would also get in.
So, there are technically three teams alive in the NFC hunt, but two of them are head-to-head division races and only one (Cardinals) that is hoping for outside help.
Personally, I don't expect much variance as most of the final games favor the team that is in the spot it is now. My expectation:
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins (if not the Fish, then the Bolts)
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Chicago Bears (unless Aaron Rodgers is able to come back)
5. San Francisco 49er's
6. New Orleans Saints
As in previous years, I'll make my various playoff predictions. I'm still holding to a Seahawks-Broncos Superbowl, but I must admit, I'm starting to think that the Panthers have a chance at changing that. Despite their flaws, I'll need to see Denver go down before I go against them in the playoffs (or if Manning is taken out by the Raiders).
AFC
The Division winners are all set as is the #5 seed (Kansas City). But seeding is still up in the air and there is going to be a rumpus for the #6 spot.
1. Denver has won the West and secured at least a first-round bye. But they need to either win their final game at Oakland, or have the Patriots lose to secure the overall #1 seed.
2. New England has won the East but needs Denver to lose to take home-field. What's more, should they somehow lose at home to Buffalo and Cincinnati wins against the Ravens, the Patriots would fall into the #3 seed as the Bengals have the tie-breaker in a head-to-head win. That seems unlikely, but it is possible.
3. The Bengals have won the North and close out against the Ravens. If they win and New England loses, they jump to the #2 seed. If they lose and Indianapolis wins, they fall to the #4 seed and a date with Kansas City. So a win preserves the #3 seed and kicks the Ravens out of the playoffs, which seems like motivation enough to me to try to win.
4. Indianapolis has won the South and closes out against the Jaguars at home. If they win and the Bengals lose, the Colts will be elevated to the #3 seed but they cannot do any better than that. Knowing that, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Colts start sitting some of their starters in the second half, no matter what the state of the game.
5. Kansas City is locked into the #5 seed. They finish at San Diego.
6. This is where things get real interesting. Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego are all tied at 8-7. Miami has the tie-breaker as they have the best conference record of the three. Baltimore follows and San Diego rounds it out. So, if Miami wins their final game against the Jets, they are in. If Miami loses and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets in. If both lose and San Diego wins, they get in. If all three lose and Pittsburgh wins their final game against Cleveland, they actually vault over the lot and grab the #6 seed. That seems unlikely to me. Of the three Miami certainly can win, although games with the Jets have been known to be very odd. After that, I'd actually favor San Diego as I expect the Chiefs to be sitting a number of their better players, knowing they will be on the road and playing that first round of the playoffs.
So, that gives us four teams fighting for one spot. The rest is just the juggle of seeding.
NFC
The NFC actually still has not settled any of it's division winners yet, although two are pretty close to being settled.
1. Seattle will clinch automatically if San Francisco loses tonight (not likely against Atlanta), otherwise they'll have to win against the Rams next week, which would win the division and secure home-field. On the off chance they do lose, the 49ers could vault over them to take the division if they win tonight against Atlanta and next week against Arizona.
2. The Carolina Panthers locked a playoff spot win their win against New Orleans yesterday. If they win against Atlanta next week, they secure the division and the #2 seed. Seattle has the tie-breaker so Carolina can only secure home-field if San Francisco vaults up to win the West. Should Carolina lose to Atlanta, New Orleans could sneak back in and the Panthers would fall to either the #5 or #6 seed.
3. Philadelphia destroyed the Bears last night and set itself in the #3 spot for the moment. But the game against Dallas (which has been moved to be the Sunday Night game) will decide who wins the East. Win and you're in. Lose and you stay home. Dallas has a better record against the NFC than the Bears so whoever wins this game will take the #3 seed.
4. Detroit's collapse opened things up and now it's a head-to-head between Chicago and Green Bay to decide the North and the #4 seed. Like the East, win and you're in, lose and you go home. Chicago could settle for a tie as well.
5. Now things get murky. San Francisco holds this spot at the moment and assuming they win against Atlanta, will continue to hold it. In fact, if they win tonight, the 49ers secure a playoff spot. They actually could have things go so that they could the #1 overall seed, but that would require them to win out and have both Seattle and Carolina lose and that seems unlikely. But, if Seattle loses next week and San Francisco wins, they could take the division and Seattle would fall to this spot.
6. New Orleans had a first-round bye in their hand and now they face the possibility of missing the playoffs. If New Orleans wins their final game against Tampa Bay, they're in. If they lose, they open the door for the Arizona Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose their last game to San Francisco, the Saints would also get in.
So, there are technically three teams alive in the NFC hunt, but two of them are head-to-head division races and only one (Cardinals) that is hoping for outside help.
Personally, I don't expect much variance as most of the final games favor the team that is in the spot it is now. My expectation:
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins (if not the Fish, then the Bolts)
NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Chicago Bears (unless Aaron Rodgers is able to come back)
5. San Francisco 49er's
6. New Orleans Saints
As in previous years, I'll make my various playoff predictions. I'm still holding to a Seahawks-Broncos Superbowl, but I must admit, I'm starting to think that the Panthers have a chance at changing that. Despite their flaws, I'll need to see Denver go down before I go against them in the playoffs (or if Manning is taken out by the Raiders).
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Christie Anime
Hercule Poirot, Miss Marple, and anime. A very nice combination. The extra character of Maybelle is a little annoying in the way that anime characters can be, but this is still quite well done. Hastings should be a bit older though.
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