To Week 17

It's probably been quite a while since we've had so much unsettled going into the final week of the season. Yes, there's always been one or two games that settle things, but it seems that just about nothing is secure at the moment.

AFC

The Division winners are all set as is the #5 seed (Kansas City). But seeding is still up in the air and there is going to be a rumpus for the #6 spot.

1. Denver has won the West and secured at least a first-round bye. But they need to either win their final game at Oakland, or have the Patriots lose to secure the overall #1 seed.
2. New England has won the East but needs Denver to lose to take home-field. What's more, should they somehow lose at home to Buffalo and Cincinnati wins against the Ravens, the Patriots would fall into the #3 seed as the Bengals have the tie-breaker in a head-to-head win. That seems unlikely, but it is possible.
3. The Bengals have won the North and close out against the Ravens. If they win and New England loses, they jump to the #2 seed. If they lose and Indianapolis wins, they fall to the #4 seed and a date with Kansas City. So a win preserves the #3 seed and kicks the Ravens out of the playoffs, which seems like motivation enough to me to try to win.
4. Indianapolis has won the South and closes out against the Jaguars at home. If they win and the Bengals lose, the Colts will be elevated to the #3 seed but they cannot do any better than that. Knowing that, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Colts start sitting some of their starters in the second half, no matter what the state of the game.
5. Kansas City is locked into the #5 seed. They finish at San Diego.
6. This is where things get real interesting. Miami, Baltimore, and San Diego are all tied at 8-7. Miami has the tie-breaker as they have the best conference record of the three. Baltimore follows and San Diego rounds it out. So, if Miami wins their final game against the Jets, they are in. If Miami loses and Baltimore wins, Baltimore gets in. If both lose and San Diego wins, they get in. If all three lose and Pittsburgh wins their final game against Cleveland, they actually vault over the lot and grab the #6 seed. That seems unlikely to me. Of the three Miami certainly can win, although games with the Jets have been known to be very odd. After that, I'd actually favor San Diego as I expect the Chiefs to be sitting a number of their better players, knowing they will be on the road and playing that first round of the playoffs.

So, that gives us four teams fighting for one spot. The rest is just the juggle of seeding.

NFC

The NFC actually still has not settled any of it's division winners yet, although two are pretty close to being settled.

1. Seattle will clinch automatically if San Francisco loses tonight (not likely against Atlanta), otherwise they'll have to win against the Rams next week, which would win the division and secure home-field. On the off chance they do lose, the 49ers could vault over them to take the division if they win tonight against Atlanta and next week against Arizona.
2. The Carolina Panthers locked a playoff spot win their win against New Orleans yesterday. If they win against Atlanta next week, they secure the division and the #2 seed. Seattle has the tie-breaker so Carolina can only secure home-field if San Francisco vaults up to win the West. Should Carolina lose to Atlanta, New Orleans could sneak back in and the Panthers would fall to either the #5 or #6 seed.
3. Philadelphia destroyed the Bears last night and set itself in the #3 spot for the moment. But the game against Dallas (which has been moved to be the Sunday Night game) will decide who wins the East. Win and you're in. Lose and you stay home. Dallas has a better record against the NFC than the Bears so whoever wins this game will take the #3 seed.
4. Detroit's collapse opened things up and now it's a head-to-head between Chicago and Green Bay to decide the North and the #4 seed. Like the East, win and you're in, lose and you go home. Chicago could settle for a tie as well.
5. Now things get murky. San Francisco holds this spot at the moment and assuming they win against Atlanta, will continue to hold it. In fact, if they win tonight, the 49ers secure a playoff spot. They actually could have things go so that they could the #1 overall seed, but that would require them to win out and have both Seattle and Carolina lose and that seems unlikely. But, if Seattle loses next week and San Francisco wins, they could take the division and Seattle would fall to this spot.
6. New Orleans had a first-round bye in their hand and now they face the possibility of missing the playoffs. If New Orleans wins their final game against Tampa Bay, they're in. If they lose, they open the door for the Arizona Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose their last game to San Francisco, the Saints would also get in.

So, there are technically three teams alive in the NFC hunt, but two of them are head-to-head division races and only one (Cardinals) that is hoping for outside help.

Personally, I don't expect much variance as most of the final games favor the team that is in the spot it is now. My expectation:

AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins (if not the Fish, then the Bolts)

NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Chicago Bears (unless Aaron Rodgers is able to come back)
5. San Francisco 49er's
6. New Orleans Saints

As in previous years, I'll make my various playoff predictions. I'm still holding to a Seahawks-Broncos Superbowl, but I must admit, I'm starting to think that the Panthers have a chance at changing that. Despite their flaws, I'll need to see Denver go down before I go against them in the playoffs (or if Manning is taken out by the Raiders).