The Western Deciders

In the past couple of weeks in the election, there has been a renewed sense of confidence among Republicans and a smell of fear among the Democrats that they could actually lose this election. Some of this is due to the energization of the Republican base by the selection of Ms. Palin, but I think more of it is coming from ordinary people just starting to pay attention and deciding that they prefer Mr. McCain’s policies to Mr. Obama’s. At least, that’s what I like to tell myself to keep up the belief that the American people are still predominantly issues voters.

Despite Mr. Obama’s belief that he could redraw the election map, I’m seeing very little evidence that this election will be any different from the last two. Most states are settling in to their old red state-blue state pattern, with four states in particular making up the real swing states in the election. The media would have you believe that the election will turn on Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, but it is more likely to spin on Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Granted, if Mr. McCain flips Michigan or Pennsylvania or if Mr. Obama flips Ohio, that would effectively end the race due to the tightness of things; but as of yet, I’m seeing no evidence that these three states will deviate from their 2004 result.

The state of the race at the moment is that Mr. Obama will carry all the states that Mr. Kerry won and Iowa. This puts his Electoral College total at 259. Mr. McCain would win all the states that Mr. Bush won, leaving out the four toss-up states mentioned above. This would put his Electoral College total at 247. My opinion of the four toss-up states is as follows:

Virginia (13): This would be another state that Mr. Obama would like to win and officially end the election. However, despite the more liberal population of the DC suburbs, Mr. McCain has consistently polled in front by 2-3 points. Although this is within the margin of error, a consistent showing indicates that he is ahead. What’s more, polls cannot capture the large military vote that is registered in Virginia and will likely break for Mr. McCain. Although it may take a while to show on election night, I would be surprised if Mr. McCain did not win Virginia barring a major shift in the political winds. This would improve Mr. McCain’s standing to 260 EC votes.

Nevada (5): Nevada is almost identical to Virginia, with the one caveat being that Mr. Bush only won Nevada 51-49 in 2004, while he won Virginia by nearly 8 points. However, Mr. McCain has consistently polled ahead by 2 or more points in the averages and being from neighboring Arizona might help his standing in the state (the Yucca Mountain issue not withstanding). Like Virginia, I would tentatively put this state in Mr. McCain’s column, raising his EC vote total to 265.

Colorado (9): Colorado has a very tight Senate race that is going to drive turnout. The state has Republican roots, but it has been trending Democratic, especially as the mountaineering ranchers are replaced by environmentally conscious folks fleeing the urban sprawl of California. There have been one or two outlier polls, but for the most part, Mr. Obama has been consistently ahead by about 3-4 points. There could be a shift, especially if Republicans pump up turnout for the Senate race but at this time, I would tentatively place this state in the Democratic column. This increases Mr. Obama’s EC total to 268 votes.

New Mexico (5): If the three previous states swing as I have postulated, then it is New Mexico that would decide things. That would be rather interesting given that the state swung to Mr. Gore by 366 votes out 598,605 cast in 2000 and to Mr. Bush by 5,988 votes out of 756,304 cast in 2004. Mr. Obama had been polling ahead prior to the conventions by about 2-3 points, but recent polls taken after the convention have shown Mr. McCain taking the lead by a point or two. If Mr. Obama wins the state and everything else plays out as stated, he will win the election with 273 electoral votes. However, if Mr. McCain wins New Mexico and the rest of the states play out as postulated, he would win the election with 270 electoral votes. What’s more, Mr. Obama would then be subject to not only second guessing about not selecting Ms. Clinton as his running mate, but Bill Richardson as well. The selection of the popular governor would certainly have cemented New Mexico into the blue column for this election.

But we are still fifty days out and many things could change. Perhaps a big state like Pennsylvania or Virginia will flip, rendering all these arguments moot. Perhaps not. One other little thing to the remember. Although offical victory is 270 points, a little manipulation of the toss-up states with New Hampshire thrown in the mix, could produce a 269-269 tie. In this event, the race gets decided by the House and each state delegation would get one vote. By my last count, the Democrats have majorities in 26 state delegations, which would give Mr. Obama the Presidency. In effect, if things play out as I mentioned above and Mr. McCain wins New Mexico, Mr. Obama would literally fall 1 vote short of victory as even a tie would give him victory.