Congress Trek II: Wrath of the Voter

If there is one thing one must always remember about politicians, it is that they are always trying to make sure you reelect them. One of the best ways to do this is to make sure they look like they are doing something to solve problems and that someone else is causing the problems (preferably from the opposite party).

Take this little mortgage kerfuffle. There is a problem as banks are in a bit of a bind and they need some relief. So something does need to be done. We have this bill proposed by Henry Paulson, so we know that the President will support it and sign it. There has been enough parading in front of the news to note that House Democrats, Senate Democrats and some Senate Republicans support the bill. No one has been talking about a filibuster so obviously at least 10 Senate Republicans support this and probably more. So why don’t we have a law yet?

House Republicans have been saying that they don’t like this and they won’t support it. So what? Last time I checked, the House didn’t have any special rules like the Senate where a minority could hold up the majority and Democrats have a reasonable majority. Yes, maybe some of the Blue Dogs are balking, but there are a few liberal Republicans in the house who tend to vote with the Democratic majority and create a counterbalance to the Blue Dogs. If the bill passes 218-217, it still passes and those that opposed it will just have to suck it up. So I ask again, why doesn’t Ms. Pelosi just ram it through and leave Mr. Boehner looking like the powerless man that he is?

There are two reasons:

First, the Democrats are reluctant to push through a bill that a lot of Republicans oppose and that President Bush supports. This would tie them to Bush’s unpopularity and undermine their attempts to link Republican candidates to Bush (like Mr. McCain). They don’t need that statistic floating out there 5 weeks before the election.

Second, although its not getting quite the headlines as the process is, there is still a majority of Americans that oppose this bill. Last poll I saw had about 57% opposed to any bailout of Wall Street. It might be necessary, but regular Americans want to see greed and incompetence punished and they don’t want to foot the bill. So, again with the election only 5 weeks away, Democrats don’t want to be the ones shown as working against the will of the people (even though the will of the people might be wrong) because they will receive the voter’s wrath and could lose their majorities in Congress.

Now we have a game of high stakes chicken. I rather doubt that House Republicans are going to move because they believe they have nothing to lose. Everyone will scream and complain, but the majorities will probably be forced to act because of the crisis frenzy that has been whipped up. Now, whether House Republicans get punished for being obstinate or House Democrats get blamed for defying the will of the people is something I’m not sure anyone knows right now, and that is what has everyone in government so jumpy at the moment.