The Red Bull vs. the Chameleon

Our long national nightmare is almost over. Or just getting ready to begin based on your point of view.

Mrs. Clinton, as most Democrats would be, is sitting in the catbird seat. The lock the Democrats have on large states such as California, New York and Illinois and most of New England means that they start the map with nearly 200 Electoral Votes. Should anything in that Democratic firewall break a Republican's way, the contest is automatically over because of what has already broken before. But we shall take a look at how things might play out to give us indicators on who might to win.

Because of the statistical advantage Mrs. Clinton should have, lets focus on what Mr. Trump has to do. His last line of defense is the Romney states minus Utah and North Carolina. I think you can lump Maine's second district in here as well. This starts him out at 186 EVs. Should there be any hint that any of these states (outside of Maine's second district) are trending for Mrs. Clinton, we can all say goodnight at 11 when California is called for Mrs. Clinton and she is declared the winner.

The next line of defense for Mr. Trump is the big trifecta of North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Put simply, Mr. Trump needs all three of these to win. Yes, it is possible to win other states to make up the difference should he lose one but let's be honest. If a Republican loses Ohio, the demographics don't work that they can make up the difference by winning Pennsylvania because the voters he lost in Ohio are the same ones he would have to convince to vote for him in Pennsylvania.

Fortunately for Mr. Trump, these three states seem to be breaking in his favor. Mr. Obama failed to carry North Carolina a second time even with a D+6 turnout in 2012 and I've yet to see hard evidence that the state has become more liberal after four years. African-American turnout in early voting is down in Florida, furthering my personal belief that Florida will swing back into the red column after relatively narrow Democrat victories in 2008 and 2012.

For reasons that I've yet to figure out, Ohio has continuously stayed in the Trump column in polling, even with favorable Democratic turnout models. I would have expected Ohio to be much more of a battleground given the lackluster support Trump has from the Ohio GOP. Governor Kaisich's win here in the primaries obscures the ability to look at Mr. Trump's potential support among the regular people with turnout, but it does seem that Democrats have more or less abandoned the state to Mr. Trump.

This trio would push Mr. Trump's EV total to 248, 22 short of victory. Again, if Mrs. Clinton manages to snag just one of these states, she will win the Presidency. Florida especially would be a dagger to the heart, but any state loss means that Mr. Trump has failed to garner the support he needs among the demographics that would shift some other blue state into the red column.

Assuming he gets this far, what would Mr. Trump need to get to 270? There are several options, but the easiest path would be a sweep of four small states: New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and Utah (bringing him to 270 exactly). Iowa and Utah are relatively easy. Utah is naturally conservative and the presence of Mr. McMullin as a third party candidate is the only reason why this state is not automatically in Mr. Trump's column. Iowa is in more 50-50 territory with conservative farmers, blue collar Democrats in the cities and liberals in the college towns. However, if the youth vote is still butthurt about Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump is actually making inroads into blue collar regions, Iowa can be taken.

New Hampshire is a little closer to Maine's second district in outlook. It is still the most conservative of the New England states and usually is in some kind of play. Like Iowa, the conservative elements are balanced out by the Boston bedroom communities that have sprung up in the southern portions of the state. New Hampshire has been shown to be close and if the turnout models are down for Democrats, New Hampshire could fall into Mr. Trump's lap.

Nevada is probably the hardest as Mr. Trump hasn't exactly been overly popular with Hispanics, especially in the West. But he is popular with business and that is going to cause a bit of schism in Las Vegas. You don't really have any hard core liberals in Nevada, but you do have a lot of Mormons and they could potentially swing for McMullin as well. Nevada is difficult but not impossible.

Should Mr. Trump fail in one or more of these states, does he have any other outlets? If he only loses one (say Nevada) he has a chance to make it up with Colorado. Colorado has become significantly more liberal with the influx of a number of Californians and the more conservative ranching heritage is dying off. Nevertheless, it is still a close state and a reduced Democratic turnout could pull it back into the red column where Mr. Bush held it in 2000 and 2004. If Mr. Trump fails to gain Nevada and New Hampshire but takes Colorado, he would be at 269, the dreaded tie. But a tie would be acceptable as the Republican controlled House would probably, albeit grudgingly, vote for Mr. Trump over Mrs. Clinton.

There is also the outside possibility of snagging Virginia. Virginia has been turning a more solid blue over the last few years due to the strength of the DC workers residing in Northern Virginia and African-American strength in Richmond and other urban areas along the coast. These counter the conservative rural vote as well as the absentee military vote, which tends to break Republican. Decreased turnout in other areas will almost certainly not affect the DC suburbs so this area will turn out strong for Mrs. Clinton. If there is any other flag in the state, the selection of Mr. Kaine as VP should shore that up. If at any point it looks like Mr. Trump will win Virginia, then the race will be over as that will be as nearly fatal gash to Mrs. Clinton as losing a state like Pennsylvania or Michigan would be.

Of these five practical states, New Hampshire will probably be the first available to call given its Eastern location and that fact that most of the polling locations close at 7pm. The cities permit staying open until 8pm, but you're likely to have a significant volume of the votes counted by then so New Hampshire could be called by 8pm. If Mrs. Clinton is called the winner, then she is holding but if Mr. Trump is declared the winner, it could be the first significant sign of trouble.

8pm will probably be the time that a good bead will be able to be made on the night. Florida will have fully closed. Ohio and North Carolina close at 7:30 so there will be a bit of a swell around those three. But I think the big tell will be when Pennsylvania is called.

Pennsylvania has been touted as a swing state this entire election cycle despite not voting for a Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Liberal Philadelphia and the conservative middle balance each other out, leaving the blue-collar areas of Pittsburgh to be the deciding factor in the state. If it is called immediately for Mrs. Clinton, she is at least in the safe zone and at worst is looking at a Bush-Kerry kind of fight. If it takes a while but she still wins it, it could be a bit of a nail biter out West.

Should she actually lose Pennsylvania, that is a very serious problem. The demographics that would swing Pennsylvania into the Republican column would mean a strong win in Ohio for Mr. Trump and much worse, potentially put Michigan and Wisconsin into play. As we've already seen, Mr. Trump is in a decent position to capture 248 EVs. If he snags Pennsylvania, that shoots him up to 268 and any of the five states mentioned above would put him over the top.

So, my own personal focus on three states at each level of defense. Florida is the first tier with a Clinton win there meaning a Clinton presidency. New Hampshire is next in line with that potentially giving us a fulcrum on how a close race would swing. Finally Pennsylvania if the dam well and truly bursts for Mr. Trump.