Gut Punch a Week Out

We are now one week out before we can finally all go to the polls and vote, thank goodness.

The storyline that we've been hammered with for the last two months is that people see Mr. Trump for the arrogant jackass that he is and that Mrs. Clinton, despite people being less than enthused about her, is going to crush him. I generally do not share that opinion.

I do not care for either candidate as neither has a proper handle on my views and both have personalities that make my stomach turn. Perhaps it is my indifference or perhaps my enjoyment of the political game, no matter how bad the players, but I've tried to take a little time and look at things more as they are rather than the way people want them to be.

First, Mrs. Clinton's lead: I don't believe it. Her lead is based on polling but as has been discussed by myself and many others, polling has it's share of problems and I think those are becoming more acute as more and more people drop landlines. Some companies have been permitted to call cell phones, but by in large, that is not the case so you can rely less and less on the raw data and it becomes more about manipulating the data you have. That manipulation introduces error and error can be very significant, especially if you want a poll to produce a certain set of results.

The easiest error that can crop up is how you predict the sampling. Many of the polls out there seem to be predicting an electorate that could be greater than Mr. Obama's 2008 win. In that election Mr. Obama got a D+7 turnout, getting major pushes from youth and the African-American vote. This fell off a bit in 2012 as Mr. Obama's turnout was reduced to D+6. Polls showing Mrs. Clinton with a big lead, usually have numbers similar to this and sometimes even higher. However, while many people are not thrilled to see Mr. Trump, there is not a lot of evidence that they are as passionate about Mrs. Clinton as they were Mr. Obama. Several more recent polls that show the race tightening reflect a reduced spread for the Democrats.

The reduced spread I think can be tied not only to mainstream Democrats that are less than thrilled about Mrs. Clinton but also reductions in the youth and African-American vote, a major piece of Mr. Obama's puzzle. The youth broke for Mr. Sanders in the primary and many of them are still bitter. Certainly some of the Wikileaks e-mails regarding Democratic attitudes towards Mr. Sanders aren't helping. Youth voters are difficult to get to the polls in regular circumstances and if they are upset in large enough numbers, you could see a number of them either skipping voting or voting third party.

African-American enthusiasm is also down. Mrs. Clinton will still get the large majority of their votes, but decreasing that number either in overall percentage or in distribution would be very bad for her. The last report I saw showed her getting between 80-85% of the vote as opposed to the 90-95% that Mr. Obama got. It might not seem like much, but that would give Florida to Mr. Trump if all else remained the same and you used the 2012 numbers. I think that combined with the decrease or defection of the youth vote would also secure North Carolina in Mr. Trump's column, a state that Mr. Romney managed to pull out of Mr. Obama's hands.

Regarding North Carolina, there is something there that should be noted. North Carolina, like a number of southern states, has a higher registration of Democrats than Republicans. However, although Democrats are very competitive in state races, Republicans tend to win nationally. Like West Virginia, Democrats in these states tend to be more conservative and will buck party identification at the top. That has diminished over time as the expanding region of the "research triangle" has grown in power with a more traditionally liberal ideology. But if the turnout is down there, conservative votes elsewhere will overcome, despite more registered Democrats being out there.

Another thing that would give me pause as a Democrat supporter is the discussion of the race. It is a bit of an adage in politics that whichever candidate has the race revolve around them, they typically win. Even negative coverage is still coverage. This election has revolved heavily around Mr. Trump. Mrs. Clinton, despite being an historic nominee, does not garner the coverage. Indeed, much of her campaign strategy has seemed to be to stay quiet and let Mr. Trump fill the room, hoping he will self-immolate. I would argue that while he has been set on fire on several occasions, he is still viable and he is defining the argument. That is a very dangerous game for Mrs. Clinton and could bit her in the end.

On top of all of this, there has been a steady cascade of negative information for Mrs. Clinton. The Wikileaks continue and although most of the issues are fall too in the weeds for most voters, the steady trickle of negative information and disdainful attitude towards voters is less than helpful. Then there was the resurgence of the e-mail issue.

Mr. Comey, contrary to many political views, is in CYA mode. I doubt he gives a rat's ass about either candidate and their standing but with people under him talking about going public with the knowledge of these new e-mails, Mr. Comey had little choice but to release a statement lest he be crucified and potentially held up on chargers for failing to disclose this to Congress in his initial deposition in July. Much of what is in these e-mails is irrelevant but it brings back the perception that Mrs. Clinton was careless with potentially dangerous material. There is also the remote chance (although we won't see it before the election) that there is some very nasty information in there. People love to generate rumors, many of which have no basis in fact, that there are one or two damning bits of information of either a political or moral nature. If even a whisper of this is true, Mrs. Clinton could be looking at charges. If she were the sitting President, that raises the specter of impeachment and removal, a process people got sick of during her husband's term. Fair or not, this is a fact that will weigh on some people's minds when they go to the polls.

I don't intend to give an official estimate of the final total. I've been too wrong before and the information we have is unreliable in my opinion. However, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest that things are not as they seem. I will give a quick pass on what we should look for on election night. Depending on how a few early indicators go, we could have an early idea of how this election will turn.