Thursday, February 16, 2012

Reverse Operation Chaos

Back in 2008 Republicans, spurred on by Conservative Talk Radio, went to the polls registered as independents or Democrats and voted for Hillary Clinton in an effort to keep her in the race. This was known as Operation Chaos and the theory was that the two Democrats would tear each other down and expose weaknesses in whichever candidate won that Mr. McCain could exploit.

Overall it had mixed results. Mr. Obama did get more exposed than he probably would have had he finished off Ms. Clinton earlier in the season. But the process also toughened him and what weakness were exposed were not exploited by Mr. McCain, who seemed very reluctant to attack Mr. Obama at all.

Four years later, the shoe appears to be on the other foot. Liberal blog Daily Kos, has announced that they will engage in their own version of Operation Chaos (Operation Hilarity) but supporting Mr. Santorum in Michigan and other states where the process is open or allows same-day registration.

Their aims are obviously the same as those of Republicans four years ago. The perception being that either Mr. Romney will win but be made weaker by the long primary fight and easier for Mr. Obama to beat or that Mr. Santorum will actually beat Mr. Romney and that he is an easier candidate to defeat for Mr. Obama.

The first place this will be felt is Michigan. Michigan is a close primary but voter affiliation may be easily changed. Michigan is normally a strong Democratic state with its large union population. Any shift of these voters (no matter how small) could tip the balance rather significantly to Mr. Santorum. Arizona, on the other hand, is a closed primary with no easy method of changing voter affiliation. So it possible that if Mr. Santorum does win Michigan in a week and a half, he may have the Democrats to thank for it.

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