Delegate Breakdowns

Michigan and Arizona will go to the polls a week from tomorrow. One week after that is Super Tuesday (with the Washington Caucuses in between the two). I figured this would be a good time to do a quick cover on the delegate standings and what's at stake over the next two weeks.

To recap, Mitt Romney currently has the lead both in actual delegates and projected delegates. Mr. Romney has 73 delegates locked in at the moment. He is generally credited with the two delegates that Mr. Huntsman won in New Hampshire since Mr. Huntsman endorsed Mr. Romney. Then the caucuses give Mr. Romney an additional 32 delegates. These are unreliable numbers but the general thought is that Mr. Romney has about 107 delegates.

Rick Santorum holds second place, although this is based on estimates. Mr. Santorum only has 3 hard delegates (from Nevada). But he is credited with 40 caucus delegates. The first of these states to turn soft numbers into hard delegates is Colorado on April 14. So Mr. Santorum's numbers are very sketchy at the moment.

Newt sits in third place with 29 hard delegates and an estimate of an additional 13 caucus delegates for a soft total of 42. Uncle Ron rounds out the field with 8 hard delegates and 28 caucus delegates for a soft total of 36 delegates.

Now, on to the contests.

Michigan and Arizona come first on the 28th. Arizona has 29 delegates and they go to whomever wins the state, period. Michigan is a little more complicated. Michigan has 30 delegates. Two delegates will go to whomever wins the overall state (assuming that candidate amassed more than 15% of the total vote) and two delegates will be awarded to the candidate who wins each congressional districts (Michigan has 14 CDs).

Washington state follows on Saturday, March 3. Washington has 43 delegates, but it is a caucus. The "winner" will be declared based on the straw poll, but the actual delegates won't be selected until June 2.

Then comes Super Tuesday with 10 states casting ballots.

Alaska has 27 delegates. Three are "leader delegates" who go to the convention as unpledged. These are the Republican equivalent to the Democrat superdelegates that caused so much fuss four years ago. The remaining 24 delegates are to be divided evenly based on the voting percentage that each candidate receives. This is a caucus but the delegates at this level are bound to a candidate so it's more like Nevada than other caucuses.

Georgia is largest delegate allocation of the day with 76 delegates. Georgia gives out three delegates per congressional district (42 total). If a candidate gets over 50% in a CD, they get all 3 delegates. If not, the candidate who gets the largest total in each CD gets 2 delegates while the runner-up gets 1. 31 delegates are apportioned out based on the overall results among the candidates who get more than 20% of the vote. Three additional delegates are given to the overall winner of the primary.

Idaho has 32 delegates. This might be my favorite method for choosing delegates. There is one caucus per county. The caucuses meet and vote by secret ballot. They vote in successive rounds, dropping the candidate who receives the least amount of votes each round, until either one candidate receives 50% of the vote or there are only two candidates left. If a candidate gets over 50% of the vote at that caucus (which should happen at almost all of them) that candidate will get the entire share of delegates allotted to that county. Else, the vote is split between the two candidates. Things are then added up and the delegates are apportioned out, rounding to the nearest whole number. If one candidate ends up with more than 16 delegates (50%), that candidate gets all 32.

Massachusetts has 41 delegates and 38 are apportioned strictly proportionally for those candidates who get more than 20% of the vote. The last three delegates are the "leader delegates" and go unapportioned.

North Dakota has 28 delegates and they are given out proportionally. I believe these delegates are bound like Alaska and Nevada, but I can't find confirmation on that.

Ohio has 66 delegates. Three are the "leader delegates" and go unassigned. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (48 total) and the winner of each CD will get all 3 delegates. 15 additional delegates will be apportioned out to those candidates who get over 20% of the total vote unless one candidate gets 50% or more of the vote. If that happens, that candidate gets all 15 delegates.

Oklahoma has 43 delegates. Three are the "leader delegates" and go unassigned. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (15 total). These will be split 2:1 between the top two candidates in each CD. 25 additional delegates will be apportioned out to those candidates who get over 15% of the total vote unless one candidate gets 50% or more of the vote. If that happens, that candidate gets all 25 delegates.

Tennessee has 58 delegates. There are 3 delegates per congressional district (27 total). These will be split 2:1 between the top two candidates in each CD (unless one candidate gets 67% of the vote, then that candidate gets all 3 delegates). 14 additional delegates will be apportioned out to the candidates based on the overall vote assuming they get at least 20% of the total vote. 14 more delegates will be given out
by the Tennessee GOP executive committee on April 7. Three additional delegates are "leader delegates" and unassigned.

Vermont has 17 delegates. Three are "leader delegates" and unassigned. Three more will go to the overall winner. The remaining 11 delegates will give given out proportionately to those candidates who get more than 20% of the vote unless one candidate gets 50% of the vote. Then that candidate will get all 11 delegates.

Virginia has 49 delegates (nearly all of which will go to Mitt Romney as only he and Uncle Ron are on the ballot). Three are "leader delegates" and will be unassigned. Three delegates are assigned per congressional district (33 total) and the winner of each CD will receive all 3 delegates. The remaining 13 delegates will apportioned between the candidates who receive more than 15%; unless one candidate gets more than 50%, in which that candidate will receive all 13.