To Third or Not to Third...

In addition to the two governor’s races going on, there is one other race that seems to be pinging people’s radars, the NY-23 race. Earlier in the year the sitting congressman, John McHugh (R), resigned to accept the Secretary of the Army position. Democrats nominated a man named Bill Owens. The Republicans had a nasty little fight and ended up nominating a fairly liberal Republican named Dede Scozzafava. Ms. Scozzafava’s connections to the more liberal elements were deemed untenable by the more fiscally conservative people in the district and they have subsequently rallied around Douglas Hoffman of the Conservative Party.

The fight has become a bit more nationalized and represents a legitimate question that has been raised through the Tea Party movement: If the Republican Party leadership continues to push Democrat-lite candidates, is it better to back more conservative third party candidates, even if it means they might lose to the Democrat?

It is difficult to say what will happen at this point. A poll taken on Wednesday showed Owens with a 5-point lead. However, a subsequent poll taken over the weekend showed Hoffman with a 4-point lead. It will probably mostly come down to turnout. Special elections are worse than off-year elections where usually only the impassioned people turn out to vote. That would seem to give Hoffman a fighting chance, as the mindless R or D voters would be that much more likely to stay home.

I’m somewhat skeptical that CNN or any other news network will pay much attention to this race so I will have to troll the interwebs on election night to see what kind of results are expected.