Boom Boom in Japan

Mt. Kirishima on the southern Japanese island of Kyushu started erupting yesterday. The pictures are quite dramatic.

I've never been to that part of Japan but it's all still interesting. I've noted the location of the volcano on the map below:

Perspective

Someone posted this yesterday and I just want to hold on to it for reference.

Time Magazine – March 31, 1980:

“National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President. This suggests that Reagan is not the strongest G.O.P. choice for the November election and that he clearly faces an uphill battle.”

“Party operatives are plainly unhappy with his selection. In Massachusetts, where both Bush and Anderson defeated Reagan, party leaders are not yet reconciled to the Reagan candidacy. Says one: “There’s a vacuum of leadership at the national level; and what appears to be the Republican Party’s response? A 69-year-old man who has done virtually nothing for years”

“Reagan has a history of committing rhetorical blunders that drive away voters. His quest in 1976 was damaged when he suggested vaguely, without proper research and consideration, that $90 billion in federal programs should be turned back to the states. He then spent months explaining that the affected programs would not be eliminated, only transferred. As Governor, Reagan was outraged by student unrest and once proclaimed: “The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity.”

“Worse perhaps than the verbal gaffe is Reagan’s relentlessly simple-minded discussion of complex problems. He is aware that he is charged with this failing, and in his 1967 inaugural address on becoming Governor of California, he asserted: “We have been told there are no simple answers to complex problems. Well, the truth is there are simple answers, just not easy ones.”

Electoral College:

Reagan: 489
Carter: 49

Earthquakes in Arkansas

Someone posted that about 40 minor earthquakes have occured in the last three months centered around the town of Guy, Arkansas. It may be nothing, but it could be a contributing factor to the bird and fish kills.

Cincinnati, Arkansas, which had the tornado that killed several people, is just off the north edge of this map. It's about 10 miles NW of Prairie Grove (up by the little man at the top of the zoom bar).

Earthquake Last Week

On Dec. 30, I felt my first earthquake since a minor tremor ran through Hartford, CT over eight years ago. The earthquake was a 3.8 mag centered about 5 miles SE of Greentown, IN.

Not a huge quake by any stretch of the imagination but it did strike up some old feelings when it passed through. We we still waking up when it hit just before 8 am. It took a second to realize that it was not the wind shaking the house and a bunch of old memories of Japan and California came rushing back.

It's not something I care to repeat as houses in this area are not well equiped to handle earthquakes but it made for an interesting memory rush over the Christmas holidays.

Electoral College Update

In my look at congressional districts yesterday, I neglected what was grabbing the attention of the talking heads yesterday, namely the shift in the Electoral College.

Looking ahead to 2012 is mostly pointless as two years is an eternity in politics and much could change, but let's look at the basics of it. Mr. Obama had significant momentum and even if the economy recovers, it seems unlikely to me that he is likely to win any of the states he lost in 2008 to Mr. McCain.

That starts the Republican off with 180 votes (for simplicity, I'm giving the Republican all of Nebraska's 5 votes rather than the 4-1 split in 2008). I think it is not unreasonable to think that Virginia and Indiana will swing back to the Republican column based off more recent elections. That bumps the Republican to 204.

Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina will be tougher and that's where other factors come in to play (like who the Republican nominee is for example). While these have been reddish states in the past, they are more purple and will require more effort to swing back into the red column. Wins in these three states bring the Republican to 266.

This means that to defeat Mr. Obama, the Republican will need to take those three large purple states and one more of the straddlers (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, or New Hampshire). Nevada would probably be the easiest, followed by New Hampshire, but neither of these is automatic.

The census has made things slight more difficult for Mr. Obama, but the path to his reelection still remains mostly the same: hold the traditional blue states, keep most of the bluish-purple little states, and hold one of the big purple states (Florida being the ideal but North Carolina, Virgina, or Ohio would do in a pinch). Obviously much can and will change in the next couple of years, but the path in a broad sense looks fairly straightforward.

2011 Congressional Districts

The 2010 Census figures are being released today. Many states stay the same but a few will need to redraw the congressional districts. The changes are:

Massachusetts: 9 districts (-1)
New York: 27 districts (-2)
New Jersey: 12 districts (-1)
Pennsylvania: 18 districts (-1)
South Carolina: 7 districts (+1)
Georgia: 14 districts (+1)
Florida: 27 districts (+2)
Ohio: 16 districts (-2)
Michigan: 14 districts (-1)
Illinois: 18 districts (-1)
Missouri: 8 districts (-1)
Louisiana: 6 districts (-1)
Texas: 36 districts (+4)
Iowa: 4 districts (-1)
Arizona: 9 districts (+1)
Nevada: 4 districts (+1)
Utah: 4 districts (+1)
Washington: 10 districts (+1)

Each state has it's own rules and deadlines as to when it redraws the lines, but it would seem that most states will have everything in place by Jan. 1, 2012. Most will probably be before that, but the first maps probably won't be available for nearly a year.

Ohio, specifically, has a commission that will consist of the Governor, Auditor, Secretary of State, and two more selected by the Republican and Democratic Legislative leadership (meaning that they will probably pick a Republican and Democrat from the Legislature). That would mean that the commission will be 4-1 Republican and will have until Oct. 5, 2011 to redraw the districts.

Nothing is certain but many political observers think that OH-10 (Kucinich - D) will be divided among it's neighbors (OH-11, OH-13, and OH-14). Not much else has been said as to who else will be without a district in 2012 but I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt was made to squeeze OH-9, OH-13, and OH-17 into two districts with some bleed off being taken from OH-5 and OH-16.

Incidentally, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-13, and OH-17 are the 5 districts that stayed Democrat in the 2010 elections. So, I would expect to see some effort made to keep the 12 Republicans entering the House in 2011 and drop the Democrats from 5 to 3. But I don't know if there are any rules that I'm unaware that will hamstring the commission to keep a certain breakdown based on population.

Major Fire in Israel

A huge fire broke out yesterday in the Carmel region, just south of Haifa.



Arson is strongly suspected. High winds and 6 years of drought have fueled the fire and over 60 people have been confirmed as killed by the fire or related activities. More details can be learned here.

The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 3

Track 11 (Funny Little Things):


Track 12 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha, Reprise):


Track 13 (Misty Mountains Cold):


Bonus (Where there's a Whip, There's a Way):

The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 2

Track 6 (The Greatest Adventure Instrumental):


Track 7 (Dinner at Bag End):


Track 8 (Down Down to Goblin Town):


Track 9 (Rollin' Down a Hole):


Track 10 (Gollum's Riddle):

The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 1

Call me a dork, nerd, or whatever, but you cannot possibly imagine how long I have looked for this:

Track 1 (The Greatest Adventure):


Track 2 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha):


Track 3 (Old Fat Spider):


Track 4 (Roads)


Track 5 (Roads Instrumental)

Late Night Funnies

A few of the more funnier moments from the rounds last night:

Conan: President Obama scheduled to grant a turkey the traditional pardon on Wednesday. But a spokesman for the turkey now says it doesn’t need a pardon. It needs a job.

Fallon: Experts announce a new plan to slash the federal debt by $6 trillion. All we have to do is switch from regular light bulbs to not having a federal government.

Leno: House Democrats just elected Nancy Pelosi as their minority leader for the new Congress. Why mess with success, right?

Conan: Congressional Democrats push for $12 billion in additional unemployment benefits. They say they can’t turn their backs on those who until two weeks ago were House Democrats.

Conan: Donald Trump wants to know if people think he should run for president. So his folks launched a website called shouldtrumprun.com. Americans have responded with their own website, no.com

Conan: Oprah Winfrey is reportedly considering buying a property in New Jersey. The property is called, “New Jersey.”

Fallon: GM wants to thank all who made its recovery possible: Toyota’s brakes, Toyota’s steering and Toyota’s accelerators.

Letterman: A new wrinkle this year for Wal-Mart’s midnight store openings on Thanksgiving Friday: They’ve added bulls to the run.

Fallon: New plan out to cover $6 trillion of the nation’s debt. First, look at all the spending for the past five years. Then, ask China for $6 trillion more.

Old Classics

Say what you want about his policies, Ronald Reagan could give a great speech about things that mattered:

Swedish Popcorn

Boomstick

THIS IS MY BOOMSTICK!

(Courtesy of Teefury.com)

Election 2010 Post Mortem

In hindsight, my projections were just a hair too optimistic for the Republicans. It was still a good night, but a few things didn't quite break the way I thought they might. There are still 9 House races that are undecided but if they hold as they currently stand, the Republicans will finish with 243 seats to the Democrats 192 seats. This would be a 64-seat pick-up (or about 6 short of what I projected).

I did worse in the Senate. My gut was wrong about WV where Manchin surged ahead and Harry Reid overcame polling showing him down anywhere from 2-4 points to win by 5. Washington, Colorado, and Alaska are undecided as of yet. In Washington, Murray (D) is ahead by about 14,000 votes at the moment but only 65% of precincts are counted. Bennett (D) is holding on by his fingernails (7,500 votes with 88% of the precincts counted). In Alaska it appears that Murkowski's write-in campaign succeeded but there is a lengthy review process so it may be late November before she is officially certified as the winner. Whether her or Miller, Alaska will stay Republican. As such, if Murray and Bennett win, Democrats will have 53 seats to the Republican's 47 (a gain of 6 seats or 3 short of my prediction).

Ohio on the other hand, went Republican. Republicans swept the state offices and Democrats only retained 5 of 18 House seats (OH-9, 10, 11, 13, 17). With Ohio slated to lose 2 congressional districts next year, expect some serious squashing of these 5 districts to try and force at least one if not two more Democrats out of the House.

Election 2010

As I did two years ago, I'll be posting my random thoughts throughout the day. I'll be doing it on paper and then uploading it later after I leave work so it's more of a historical record rather than a good checking document on happening things.

6:53 AM - Polls have been open for nearly an hour in KY and half an hour in OH. I've printed off my cheat sheet for the house races for tonight:

7:00 AM - Per the discussion I had with Mrs. X last night, here's a list of the OH races we'll be watching (incumbents are bold):

Governor: Ted Strickland (D) vs. John Kasich (R)

Attorney General: Richard Cordray (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R)

Secretary of State: Maryellen O'Shaughnessy (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)

Treasurer: Kevin Boyce (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)

Auditor: David Pepper (D) vs. David Yost (R)

Senator: Lee Fisher (D) vs. Rob Portman (R)

8:07 AM - Captain Ed agrees with me.

11:47 AM - Early reports suggesting lighter turnout in several liberal districts relative to '08. General turnout has been heavy but far below that of the last election.

2:18 PM - Gallup is reporting an enthusiasm gap of 19 points.

3:30 PM - Heading off to vote.

4:15 PM - Voter #310 at my polling place. Pretty high in my opinion.

6:00 PM - Polls closing in parts of IN, KY, and NH

6:10 PM - Hodes (D) leads Ayotte (R) in NH 7-5.

6:12 PM - Paul (R) up 57-42 with >1% reporting in KY

6:13 PM - Fox is listing KY-6 as a race to watch. I doubt it.

6:30 PM - IN-8 at 51-43 for the Republican with 4% reporting.

7:00 PM - Coats (R-IN), Paul (R-KY), Leahy (D-VT), Demint (R-SC) all projected winners

7:45 PM - 5% in and Rubio (R) up 50-22 over Crist (I) in FL.

7:46 PM - D wins KY-3

8:22 PM - Portman wins OH senate seat.

Predictions

Tomorrow is election day so it would only be fair to offer some predictions on how things will go.

Things are looking pretty good for the GOP at the moment. That they will retake the House seems almost certain and many prognosticators have been talking of a 1994-like wave. It may be even bigger than that. Checking RCPs House Rankings, if the Republicans and Democrats take all the seats in the lean or better column assigned to them and you split the Toss-Ups 50-50, the GOP would pick up 66 seats. I think there will be higher GOP turnout that will push this model slightly to the right, so I'm going to offer my pick of 70 seats in the House. That would put it above 1994 (54 seats), but well below the insane wave of 1894 (130 seats).

The Senate is a little trickier. At the moment, I see no evidence that the GOP will lose any of the Senate seats they currently hold. They look to pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Nevada. That would push them to 48 seats.

Democrats will easily keep Hawaii, Maryland, both New York seats, Oregon, and Vermont. I think they will also hold on to Connecticut and Delaware, although these races might be closer than they should be. Either way, the Democrats would have 48 seats at this point.

That leaves Illinois, West Virginia, California, and Washington as the toss-ups. I think Illinois will swing Republican (albeit reluctantly) and I also see West Virginia going Republican despite some polls showing Mr. Manchin (D) ahead. Mr. Obama is still somewhat popular in California so I think that though it will be close, the wave will not be as hard there and Ms. Boxer retains her seat. Washington is a true toss-up but things seem to break Democratic whenever they are so close in that state, so I will give the Democrats that seat as well.

In the end, I think the GOP picks up 9 seats for a 50-50 split with Joe Biden breaking the tie and allowing the Democrats to retain control of the Senate.

Empire Striking Back

Mr. Obama at speech in Cleveland:



Darth Cheney's response:

Smell Like a Monster

Mrs. X found this a few days ago. Hysterical.

I Wear No Pants

My son reminded me of this commercial the other day. Of course, he's 18 months old...