Getting a VP to be President

In all practical reality, either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Trump are going to be elected President on November 8. However, there are a couple of scenarios that could lead to something different happening. It is possible in a semi-realistic way to produce a 269-269 tie in the Electoral college based on current trends. If Mrs. Clinton retains the traditional blue states of the Atlantic (including New Hampshire), retains Virginia, keeps the upper mid-west minus Ohio, holds the West coast, including Nevada and New Mexico, this will give her 270 exactly. However, Maine allows the splitting of it's Electoral College votes and Mr. Trump is running well ahead in Maine's second district. Removing this from her total will produce a 269-269 split, tossing the election to the House.

Things get even more interesting when you look at the third-party candidates. Neither Mr. Johnson nor Ms. Stein have any chance at winning the election but in the normally solidly Republican state of Utah, there is an interesting brew going on. In addition to the top four candidates, there is the independent bid of Mr. Evan McMullin. He is a Mormon, from Utah and currently running third in the vote for that state, with the last poll showing him only four points behind Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. It is possible that if the people of Utah are soured enough on the regular candidates, Mr. McCullin could actually manage to take Utah's six electoral votes. This is important because if neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Trump manage to get to 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives is required to vote for a winner from the top three Electoral College vote getters; meaning that Mr. McMullin could get thrown in to the mix for consideration in what would normally be a straight affair between Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton.

According to the provisions laid out in the Constitution, the top three EC vote getters are voted on by the House with each state delegation getting one vote. Meanwhile the Senate votes on the VP in a straight up or down vote from the top two vote getters (Mr. Pence and Mr. Kaine). This vote is taken by the newly elected Congress and current polling favors the Republicans to keep control of both houses of Congress, although the Democrats have a shot at taking the Senate. If they fail to do so, Mr. Pence would likely be elected to the VP slot in short order.

In the current House, the Republicans control the delegations of 32 states while the Democrats control 16. With 26 votes to win, this scenario would seem to favor Mr. Trump. However, Mr. Trump has not exactly enamored himself with the Republican party lately and it is not hard to imagine some members of the Republican House being less than thrilled with the prospect of voting for him. In a two-way race, Mr. Trump is still likely to win just because there won't be much in the way of alternative. Abstention is not practical for more than a vote or two, especially in the light of potential anger by the voters to just get the thing over with.

However, imagine that Mr. McMullin is in the mix. A number of Republican delegations could opt to cast their votes for him. It is unlikely that he would garner enough states to win outright, but he could deny Mr. Trump the 26 votes he would need. What's more, this could provide the Republicans (and some Democrats) the fig leaf needed to dump both candidates. If the election remains undecided by the time of the Inauguration, the Constitution dictates that the Vice President shall step in and take over. This effectively means that the country would end up with President Pence or President Kaine (although the odds favor the former).

This is an extreme case scenario but one that is not out of the realm of possibility. Given the way this race has ebbed and flowed, this may not be an implausible as it sounds. At the very least, it is fun to speculate on.