2014 Playoffs

I haven't posted much about this football season, mostly because it has been so up and down and no team has seemed like that dominant force who everyone expects to win the Super Bowl. But with one week left, let's take a look at things.

AFC

1. New England Patriots - The Pats have secured a first round bye and in the (unlikely) event that Denver loses tonight, they will secure home field advantage.
2. Denver Broncos - The Broncos have won the West and if they win tonight against the Bengals, they will lock in a first round bye. Because New England won the head-to-head, Denver would need the Pats to lose against Buffalo next week to have a chance at the top spot.
3. Cincinnati Bengals - The only division not set is the North. If the Bengals win against Denver tonight, they'll secure a playoff spot, but I'm skeptical of the Bengals chances. If they lose tonight, Pittsburgh will move into this spot and the Bengals will fall to the #5 spot. It is also possible that if they lose to Denver and lose to Pittsburgh next week, that they miss the playoffs entirely. The game against Pittsburgh will the final game of the season as it has been moved to the Sunday Night game.
4. Indianpolis Colts - The Colts could climb back up to the #3 seed, but since they have secured the division and have essentially no shot at a bye week, they'll probably rest folks next week, which is likely to keep them in the #4 spot.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers have secured a playoff spot and if the Bengals lose tonight, they'll take over the division lead and the #3 spot.
6. San Diego Chargers - Right now the final spot belongs to the Chargers, but they have Baltimore breathing down their necks. As Baltimore is likely to defeat a reeling Cleveland Browns team next week, the Chargers will be facing a must win against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are technically not eliminated yet, but they would to beat the Chargers and have the Browns beat Baltimore. Possible but not overly likely.

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks - There is a five-way tie for best record in the NFC so it falls to various tie-breakers to see who has divisional leads and best seeding. Seattle is currently in the driver's seat with the #1 spot. The have a home game against the Rams to close things out and that should be enough to keep them in this spot.
2. Detroit Lions - The Leos square off against Green Bay next week (in Green Bay) to secure the division and the likely #2 seed. Both teams have a better conference record than Dallas so (assuming Seattle wins) the winner will retain the #2 seed while the loser will likely get the #5 seed.
3. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas is actually the only team in the NFC to have won their division, but because of the similar records and various tie-breakers, the only way Dallas can move up to the #2 seed is if both Seattle and Arizona lose (an unlikely scenario). So I would expect Dallas to rest folks next week and be content with the #3 spot.
4. Carolina Panthers - The dregs of the NFC is also the only unsecured spot. Carolina and Atlanta go head-to-head next week to see which losing team gets the #4 spot and a likely date with the North runner-up. Carolina is playing like they did at the beginning of the season, but Atlanta is 5-0 in the division and is unlikely to go away quietly. Still, I wouldn't favor either team in the first round playoff game.
5. Green Bay Packers - As noted earlier, the Packers could end up winning the division. In fact, if they win and Seattle loses, Green Bay could end up with the #1 seed. Or they could lose and fall behind Arizona for the #6 seed. But they are in the playoffs and that's all the really matters.
6. Arizona Cardinals - Arizona got thumped hard last night. At one point they were the best team in the NFC, but they are such a walking wounded team that I'm not holding my breath that they'll field anyone of importance next week against San Francisco. If that happens, the Niners may actually be able to get to .500 and Arizona will stay secure in the #6 spot. Of course it is possible that they could win and that through a unique set of circumstances, end up with the #2 spot. But I would imagine that the Cardinals coaches are already drawing up plans for Dallas.

As for my own predictions, I think things will stay much as they are with only a few changes. In the AFC, I don't have much faith in the Bengals and am expeting Pittsburgh to win the division. In fact, I'm desperately hoping for the Chiefs to win so that the Bengals will even make the playoffs as I do expect the Ravens to beat the Browns.

In the NFC, I expect Green Bay to end up with the #2 spot, which will send Detroit down for a date with Carolina (whom I also expect to win). Everything else will likely stay the same.