Unlikely Final Four

I want to see a bracket (any bracket) that had these teams in the Final 4:

#5 Michigan St. vs. #5 Butler

#2 West Virginia vs. #1 Duke

The only one of these that I got right was Duke. I had Kansas, Kansas St., and Kentucky rounding out the brackets.

I can imagine that the powers that be probably would like Michigan St. vs Duke in the finals. Both teams have large followings with a good history behind them. I personally would like to see Butler vs. West Virginia with Butler winning the whole thing.

Butler is in the Horizon League and the last time that a non-BCS conference won the National Championship was in 1990 when UNLV won (they were in the Big West then and are part of the Mountain West now). Prior to that, you would have to go back to Louisville winning it in 1980 (Louisville was in the Metro Conference then).

Butler does have one advantage that the other schools do not. Butler is actually located in Indianapolis, where the championship games will be played. At the very least, they will enjoy a sizable home court advantage.

219-212

Bart Stupak and his block caved to a promise of an executive order defunding the abortion provisions in the Senate bill. Very stupid in my opinion as one, I'm not sure that an executive order on funding is even legal; and two, the President (or any subsequent President) could simply choose to ignore or even rescind the order. In other words, it's not worth the paper it's printed on.

The Senate version of the bill will be signed into law (probably today) while an amending package will be sent to the Senate to go through reconciliation. Republicans will try to stop it and personally, I think the Senate will choose to do very little with it, saving their own necks and effectively hanging the House out to dry.

In the spirit of the new law, here's a catchy little tune for you.

But Winston, Oceania Has Always Been at War with Eastasia

“We have a political culture in which the word ‘reconciliation’ has come to mean ‘bitter division.'"

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Debt is Solvency.


I wish I could say that I thought of that analogy, but I found it somewhere else.

Trust Me...

Yesterday, the Senate Parliamentarian ruled that the Senate is not allowed to take up Reconciliation measures regarding the Health Care Bill until President Obama has signed it into law. Essentially this means that any changes the House would have liked to make would be placed on hold. Before anything else may be considered, they must pass the Senate version of the bill as written and then Mr. Obama must sign it.

This actually is potential bad news for Mr. Obama. Up until now, there has been a game of chicken going on between Democrats in the House and Democrats in the Senate, neither one wanting to commit any more political capital to a very unpopular measure. Now the Senate is off the hook and the House has to indulge in a huge trust me.

Let's be frank. The House hates this version of the bill. All 178 Republicans have committed to voting against it. Bart Stupak and his 14 other Pro-Life Democrats have stated that they will not vote for the Senate version due to it's Federal funding of abortion. A number of Blue Dog Democrats don't want to vote for it because it means humiliating defeat in their conservative districts (Heath Schuler being a prime example).

Adding to Ms. Pelosi's woes are members of the Progressive Caucus (like Dennis Kucinich) who are livid that the Senate version does not contain a Public Option for health care and imposes a heavy tax on Union pension plans. There have also been rumblings that both the CBC and the CHC are unhappy and may vote no because of the lack of perks for their own constituents.

The main problem is that no one wants to touch an unpopular bill and House Democrats are worried that they will be hung out to dry. The theory goes that after the House passes the bill and Mr. Obama signs it into law, the Senate will go through Reconciliation to change budgetary matters within the bill that no one likes. This includes removing the large bribes paid to Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA). However, the House is deathly afraid that once Mr. Obama signs the bill, he will call it a great accomplishment and the matter will be dropped. The Senate will not bother with Reconciliation and the House will be left holding the bag while the members of their districts sharpen their knives.

To pass the bill, Ms. Pelosi needs 216 votes (this is reduced from the normal 218 votes due to four vacancies in the House at the moment: Robert Wexler (FL-19), Jack Murtha (PA-12), Neil Abercrombie (HI-1), and Eric Massa (NY-29)). As stated above, 178 Republicans and 15 Democrats are absolute "nos" at the moment. Which means that of the 39 Democrats who voted no last time, she will have to flip 17 of them while making sure that none of the more liberal members flip to no as a sign of protest.

A tall order, even without the stink of fear.

Very Early Handicapping

It's amazing what one bad year will do to a politician. Granted, the Presidential election season gets longer and longer, but it seems that people have already factored in that the Republicans are going to make significant gains in 2010 and are starting to look at 2012.

This isn't very practical as two and a half years is a very long time politically (we all thought Mr. Clinton was dead in Dec. 1994) and we can only estimate how the electoral votes will be recast following the 2010 census. Most people seem to be looking at the projections that Wiki quotes, which would take 7 from Mr. Obama and give them to Mr. McCain for a 358-180 win for Mr. Obama.

Playing my own game with the numbers, I start Mr. Obama with 222 EV and the Republican with 181 (for ease of math I'm giving the R all of Nebraska rather than the 4-1 split of 2008). In 2008, all the swing states broke for Mr. Obama. Depending on the quality of the candidate and the current economic climate, I think the Republicans have a good shot at taking back Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) and Indiana (11). I also think that if the cards are played correctly, the Republicans take back Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). This brings the balance up to 235-222.

Of the remaining states, Florida is the brass ring. Florida is expected to gain 1 vote for a total of 28 votes. If the Republican wins that they would only need 7 more votes to win (alternatively, the Republicans could concede Colorado and take Ohio (18) to win if they take Florida). On the other hand, if Mr. Obama takes Florida and then holds Pennsylvania, he gets 270 exactly and the rest is irrelevant.

It is possible that one side may make a play for a state that's been solid to one side, but that adds to much variable to the mix at the moment. Still, I would warn Floridians to prepare themselves for intense bombardment over the entire stretch of 2012.

Pretty

These are compiled images from the NASA satellite TERRA:

Perry Vs White

No, this isn't a Superman bit.

Texas had their primary Tuesday and Gov. Rick Perry managed to get the better than 50% he needed to avoid a run-off against Sen. Hutchison. I saw a little too much of this race while I was in Houston as both sides went at it hammer and tongs with ads.

Mr. Perry will square off against Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election in November. Mr. Perry is seeking his third full term (he took over when George W. Bush resigned to assume the Presidency) and has been dogged with accusations of cronyism and other things associated with staying in office for a long time. However, Texas is in a real conservative mood these days and Mr. Perry's almost CSA rhetoric should get him in well enough to soundly defeat Mr. White.