Catch Up Assessment

Sorry I’ve been away for so long. I’ve recently had a change of position at my job (including a physical move to a new desk) and it’s been relatively slow in the political world. Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain remain neck and neck overall and in some very important states. One could argue that this is bad news for Mr. Obama as historically the opposition candidate is way ahead, but it’s too early to say if this is a sign of doom or if the American public is actually paying attention at the moment. Appreciable numbers should start trickling in about mid-September.

Meanwhile, things are in a bit of a holding pattern in the Middle East. Israel is now in process to change her head of state in September. The new Prime Minister will still be from the Kadima party unless things fall apart so bad that new elections are called for (they are currently slated for the latter half of 2009).

Fortunately, Israel has a bit of a reprieve from the Iranians and the Palestinians to some degree. Russia is behind on delivering their new anti-aircraft system to Iran and it is unlikely that it will be installed before the year is up. This gives Israel more time to plan and gather information on the ground before they go in and destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Also, the Palestinians are busy fighting each other, committing such nefarious deeds as shaving off the mustaches of other party members as well as the standard killing them and their entire family.

All this gives Israel time to regroup and get themselves in line for the battle that is coming. No matter what the result of the American elections, Israel will probably have no choice but to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities themselves. What’s more, this will probably have to happen sometime later this year before more advanced defense methods are ready. Israel probably already has the green light from Mr. Bush and he will just ask for a few minutes warning so he can tell his commanders to ignore any aircraft signals flying over Iraq.

It is likely that the attack on Iran will trigger a rocket assault from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. I’m not sure if Fatah or Islamic Jihad will join in with attacks from Judea or not. However, Israel’s new Prim Minister will have to steel themselves and be prepared to finish the job when beating back her attackers, or she will just be that much weaker when the next round of fighting comes again.

I don’t know if Israel will wait until after the November elections or not to attack. Of course, they want a US President that’s friendly to them and who knows how an attack on Iran would influence American voters (right and left). But, Israel should not be beholden to the US either and should make the attack when her commanders and the Mossad (who should have agents in Iran) say so.

I’ve always thought that the attack will come at night, around the time of the new moon. This would give the Israelis the maximum advantage with their superior technology. The next few new moons should be around Aug. 29, Sept. 26, Oct. 24, and Nov. 21. Hot times are coming.