Thanksgiving is now over. I cooked the turkey for the first time and it turned out very well, if I do say so myself. However, I have learned that its best to just read the directions on the turkey bag or on the bird itself. Don't follow a recipe unless you are going to follow it to the letter. We had my parents and my sister and her husband over. It was fun, although towards the end of the meal preparation, I was getting a little frazzled. Apparently while my mom, sister and I were cooking, dad and Mr. S thought it would be a good idea to park themselves in the kitchen for chatting. The kitchen started feeling very small by that point and I accidently snapped at Mrs. X. But she has forgiven me and now all that is past.
Now on to the real point of Thanksgiving: football. The bowl games are falling into place. The BCS is desperately praying that all things go according to plan in the championship games and in the USC-UCLA game. Things are as follows:
1) USC vs. UCLA: USC wins and remains undefeated, keeping is #1 ranking and goes to the Rose Bowl.
2) Big 12 Title game - Texas vs. Colorado: Texas should crush Colorado who has lost their last two games and backed in when ISU lost to Kansas.
3) ACC Title game - Va. Tech vs. Florida St.: Florida St. has also been losing a lot lately with a very suspect offense and special teams. Va. Tech should cruise for an Orange Bowl berth.
4) SEC Title game - Georgia vs. LSU: The BCS really doesn't care who wins as both teams are well qualified and the loss will knock the loser out of BCS contention.
The Fiesta Bowl hasn't made up its mind yet about whether to take Ohio St. or Oregon, but the feeling among the sports shows is that Oregon is going to get left out just because of the money that Ohio St. can bring to the table as opposed to Oregon. The real monkey wrench gets thrown if a team that's supposed to lose ends up winning and ends up winning the automatic berth, much like Kansas St. did to Oklahoma a couple of years ago. But if things go as the BCS prays, the match ups will be as follows:
Rose - USC vs. Texas
Fiesta - Notre Dame vs. Ohio St./Oregon
Orange - Virgina Tech vs. Penn St.
Sugar - LSU/Georgia vs. West Virginia (I think it'll be LSU)
Meanwhile in the NFL, the AFC gets clearer while the NFC gets murkier. Barring some major slippage, the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos will secure the #1 and #2 seeds respectively. I don't think the Colts will go undefeated, but if Denver keeps on their heels, they may have to play hard until the last game of the season. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are fighting it out for the division with next week's game in Pittsburgh almost sure to decide who gets the #3 seed. New England will limp in as the #4 seed. Jacksonville is the strong #5 now, even though Leftwich is going to be out 4-6 weeks. Their schedule is so soft that they should be able to finish either 12-4 or 11-5 without breaking much of a sweat. That leaves the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh loser, San Diego, and Kansas City fighting it out for the #6 seed.
In the NFC, Seattle's luck held and allowed them to hold onto the #1 seed. They should win the division next week and might hold on to #1 seed, simply by how the other teams keep beating each other up in division play. Chicago has the #2 seed at the moment, but the lack of offense may catch up to them eventually, allowing Carolina or Dallas to slip in, who are the current #3 and #4 seeds respectively. The NY Giants and the Tampa Bay Bucs currently have the #5 and #6 seeds, but Atlanta is currently in striking distance. Hard to believe, but Minnesota is still in the hunt as well. They're only two games behind and the NFC South and East are going to bloody each other up in the next five weeks.
As of yet, I see no reason why the AFC championship won't be between Denver and Indianapolis, with Indy emerging triumphant. The NFC, I think will pit Seattle against Carolina. Seattle might squeek out because of home field, but only if they play much better than they did against the Giants.
Monday, November 28, 2005
Friday, November 18, 2005
Stray Butterflies
My latest discovery on the alternative history front is a well written and very dark essay entitled Decades of Darkness. The premise for this one is that Thomas Jefferson dies while in office in January of 1809. Because of the turmoil involved with the transition to Madison (who is president-elect), the Embargo Act is not repealed. This was an act aimed at trying to punish British shipping for the impressments of American sailors but instead devastated the economies of New England seaports. As a result, New England secedes from the Union along with New York, New Jersey, and the Michigan territory. New England actually did threaten this and that was one of the reason Jefferson backed down right before his term expired.
In this new history, the United States is dominated by the slave holding states who expand the process, extending it in their conquest across North America. Meanwhile, New England forms a confederation government and become a powerful naval power, closely allied with Canada and Britain. Where I am now, is the mid 1860’s. Abraham Lincoln has just finished his term as the 13th president of New England while Mexican radicals in response to an intervention in Vericruz assassinate US President Jefferson Davis. The racial subjection that the United States descends to is rather appalling from a future perspective, but plausible at the same time.
The only problem I have with it is something that tends to plague all alternative history scenarios: the amount of unrelated “butterflies.” The principle point of any alternate history is to create alternatives based on your Point of Departure (PoD). However, many writers have specific things they want to have happen, so they postulate that some things happened a little differently that are completely unrelated to your original premise. Two of the biggest examples of that in Decades of Darkness involve Napoleon and Queen Victoria. In this scenario, Napoleon takes a different route in his retreat from Russia, causing him to lose fewer men. As such, he has a stronger army and actually defeats Wellington at the battle of Waterloo; although the arrival of Prussian reinforcements still force him to withdraw from the field and later abdicate the throne. This only creates small ripples and could easily be overlooked. The other one though is very significant. The author postulates that in the scenario, the monarch who is becomes Queen Victoria, is actually born a man and comes to the throne as Edward VII. He also changes the temperament of the king, making him more hands on and involved as opposed to Victoria who left nearly all governance to her Prime Ministers. To me, this creates a very large change that is completely unrelated to the events causing New England to break away from the United States. I understand some changes need to be made to make a compelling story, but if you change too many factors, the fun of the exercise of seeing down one juncture in history is taken away.
Still, it’s a good story and I look forward to seeing how it ends.
In this new history, the United States is dominated by the slave holding states who expand the process, extending it in their conquest across North America. Meanwhile, New England forms a confederation government and become a powerful naval power, closely allied with Canada and Britain. Where I am now, is the mid 1860’s. Abraham Lincoln has just finished his term as the 13th president of New England while Mexican radicals in response to an intervention in Vericruz assassinate US President Jefferson Davis. The racial subjection that the United States descends to is rather appalling from a future perspective, but plausible at the same time.
The only problem I have with it is something that tends to plague all alternative history scenarios: the amount of unrelated “butterflies.” The principle point of any alternate history is to create alternatives based on your Point of Departure (PoD). However, many writers have specific things they want to have happen, so they postulate that some things happened a little differently that are completely unrelated to your original premise. Two of the biggest examples of that in Decades of Darkness involve Napoleon and Queen Victoria. In this scenario, Napoleon takes a different route in his retreat from Russia, causing him to lose fewer men. As such, he has a stronger army and actually defeats Wellington at the battle of Waterloo; although the arrival of Prussian reinforcements still force him to withdraw from the field and later abdicate the throne. This only creates small ripples and could easily be overlooked. The other one though is very significant. The author postulates that in the scenario, the monarch who is becomes Queen Victoria, is actually born a man and comes to the throne as Edward VII. He also changes the temperament of the king, making him more hands on and involved as opposed to Victoria who left nearly all governance to her Prime Ministers. To me, this creates a very large change that is completely unrelated to the events causing New England to break away from the United States. I understand some changes need to be made to make a compelling story, but if you change too many factors, the fun of the exercise of seeing down one juncture in history is taken away.
Still, it’s a good story and I look forward to seeing how it ends.
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Election Issues
Today is Election Day. Aside from the local issues, we here in Ohio are voting on five major ballot issues.
Issue 1 is a bond issue for highways and bridges as well as grants to try and bring high tech jobs to Ohio. The government is trying to sell it as a way to generate money without raising taxes. Most people aren’t buying it and since it’s seen as Taft’s pet project, it’s likely to fail.
Issue 2 is about easing the rules for absentee balloting and I think there might be some easing of voter registration in there as well. I’m not totally sure about the last part.
Issue 3 is a finance reform issue. This is the one most likely to pass.
Issue 4 is a competitive redistricting issue similar to the one they have out in California. It involves some funky mathematical formula and would twist the districts even more than they are now. I don’t think this one will pass.
Issue 5 is probably the dumbest one. It proposes striping the role of overseeing the elections from the Secretary of State and giving it to an appointed commission. It’s basically an angry rant against what happened with Blackwell last year.
Outside of Ohio there are four races that are pinging on the national radar:
In New Jersey, there is a governor’s race. Despite extreme incompetence on Senator Corzine’s (D) part, he will still probably win the election and then appoint a replacement to his senate seat.
In New York City, Mayor Bloomberg may set a record for the largest margin of victory. The current record is around 19 points. Bloomberg is polling between 20 and 32.
In California there are 8 ballot initiatives, 4 that are being pushed by the Governator. All 8 are polling as though they may be defeated.
The closest race is the governor’s race in Virginia. The Democratic candidate (Kaine) is leading the Republican (Kilgore) by between 1 and 4 points depending on which poll you look at. I would be even closer but there is a far right candidate (Potts) who is running as an independent and is sapping a couple of points from Kilgore. Kaine will probably win, but this one will go late for the results.
Not as exciting as last year at this time, but I’ll be paying attention to the news to see how things turn out. Political junkie I am, yes.
Issue 1 is a bond issue for highways and bridges as well as grants to try and bring high tech jobs to Ohio. The government is trying to sell it as a way to generate money without raising taxes. Most people aren’t buying it and since it’s seen as Taft’s pet project, it’s likely to fail.
Issue 2 is about easing the rules for absentee balloting and I think there might be some easing of voter registration in there as well. I’m not totally sure about the last part.
Issue 3 is a finance reform issue. This is the one most likely to pass.
Issue 4 is a competitive redistricting issue similar to the one they have out in California. It involves some funky mathematical formula and would twist the districts even more than they are now. I don’t think this one will pass.
Issue 5 is probably the dumbest one. It proposes striping the role of overseeing the elections from the Secretary of State and giving it to an appointed commission. It’s basically an angry rant against what happened with Blackwell last year.
Outside of Ohio there are four races that are pinging on the national radar:
In New Jersey, there is a governor’s race. Despite extreme incompetence on Senator Corzine’s (D) part, he will still probably win the election and then appoint a replacement to his senate seat.
In New York City, Mayor Bloomberg may set a record for the largest margin of victory. The current record is around 19 points. Bloomberg is polling between 20 and 32.
In California there are 8 ballot initiatives, 4 that are being pushed by the Governator. All 8 are polling as though they may be defeated.
The closest race is the governor’s race in Virginia. The Democratic candidate (Kaine) is leading the Republican (Kilgore) by between 1 and 4 points depending on which poll you look at. I would be even closer but there is a far right candidate (Potts) who is running as an independent and is sapping a couple of points from Kilgore. Kaine will probably win, but this one will go late for the results.
Not as exciting as last year at this time, but I’ll be paying attention to the news to see how things turn out. Political junkie I am, yes.
Monday, November 07, 2005
BCS Predictions
With only two weeks left in the college football regular season, its time to start looking at the BCS standings, especially since things got a lot clearer this week.
First, the likely conference champs:
PAC 10 – USC. UCLA’s loss exposed their great weakness. They and Cal will try hard, but USC is too good to get taken down by either team.
Big 12 – Texas. Texas will meet Colorado in the title game and squash them appropriately, much to the chagrin of my uncle Chuck.
Big 10 – Penn St. Penn St. has a bye and then Michigan St. With as badly as Michigan St. is reeling and with two weeks to prepare, Penn St. should have no trouble at all in this game.
Big East – West Virginia. West Virginia still has its big showdown game with the University of South Florida, but I think West Virginia is the more talented team and will probably win out.
ACC – Miami. Miami now has the inside track to the ACC Coastal title and would probably play Florida St. in the championship game. Miami is better and will probably win out.
SEC – Georgia. Georgia has the inside track to the SEC East title. Alabama has to go through LSU and Auburn, both of which are still contenders for the SEC West title. I expect Alabama to lose at least one game and have LSU go to the title game. With Georgia’s quarterback back, they should win the SEC and advance to the Sugar Bowl.
Now to the bowl selections. The Rose Bowl is the national championship this year with the Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar picking after it in that order.
Rose Bowl – USC vs. Texas. These will probably be the only teams remaining undefeated when the season ends, so the game will be an easy selection.
Orange Bowl – Miami vs. Penn St. The Orange Bowl automatically gets the ACC Champion and will almost certainly honor that with the hometown Hurricanes winning the ACC. The Fiesta Bowl will likely have snatched Notre Dame up by this point, so the Big 10 Champions will make for a nice alternative.
Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Ohio St. (Oregon/Alabama?). This is where it gets a little fuzzy. The Fiesta Bowl gets the first pick after the Rose Bowl to replace Big 12 Champ Texas. With this they will take Notre Dame who will be available assuming they win their last two games and the strength of schedule holds to keep them in the top 12 of the BCS standings. If Ohio St. beats Northwestern and Michigan, the Fiesta Bowl will jump at the chance to take them, but that’s a big if. Oregon could win the rest of its games and finish 10-1, a reasonable second choice, although one that won’t generate as much money as Ohio St. Also possible is if Alabama has only 1 loss but misses the SEC title game, they might get the nod over Oregon. Whatever the Fiesta Bowl thinks will make it the most money. But Ohio State and Notre Dame would be their first choices I think.
Sugar Bowl – Georgia vs. West Virginia. The Sugar Bowl gets the bad luck of drawing last this year and, as a result, gets stuck with the Big East champion to face off against its automatic SEC champion berth.
If these hold out, every game should be a good one, except for the Sugar Bowl, which will turn out to be a complete slaughter and a yawner of a game.
First, the likely conference champs:
PAC 10 – USC. UCLA’s loss exposed their great weakness. They and Cal will try hard, but USC is too good to get taken down by either team.
Big 12 – Texas. Texas will meet Colorado in the title game and squash them appropriately, much to the chagrin of my uncle Chuck.
Big 10 – Penn St. Penn St. has a bye and then Michigan St. With as badly as Michigan St. is reeling and with two weeks to prepare, Penn St. should have no trouble at all in this game.
Big East – West Virginia. West Virginia still has its big showdown game with the University of South Florida, but I think West Virginia is the more talented team and will probably win out.
ACC – Miami. Miami now has the inside track to the ACC Coastal title and would probably play Florida St. in the championship game. Miami is better and will probably win out.
SEC – Georgia. Georgia has the inside track to the SEC East title. Alabama has to go through LSU and Auburn, both of which are still contenders for the SEC West title. I expect Alabama to lose at least one game and have LSU go to the title game. With Georgia’s quarterback back, they should win the SEC and advance to the Sugar Bowl.
Now to the bowl selections. The Rose Bowl is the national championship this year with the Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar picking after it in that order.
Rose Bowl – USC vs. Texas. These will probably be the only teams remaining undefeated when the season ends, so the game will be an easy selection.
Orange Bowl – Miami vs. Penn St. The Orange Bowl automatically gets the ACC Champion and will almost certainly honor that with the hometown Hurricanes winning the ACC. The Fiesta Bowl will likely have snatched Notre Dame up by this point, so the Big 10 Champions will make for a nice alternative.
Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Ohio St. (Oregon/Alabama?). This is where it gets a little fuzzy. The Fiesta Bowl gets the first pick after the Rose Bowl to replace Big 12 Champ Texas. With this they will take Notre Dame who will be available assuming they win their last two games and the strength of schedule holds to keep them in the top 12 of the BCS standings. If Ohio St. beats Northwestern and Michigan, the Fiesta Bowl will jump at the chance to take them, but that’s a big if. Oregon could win the rest of its games and finish 10-1, a reasonable second choice, although one that won’t generate as much money as Ohio St. Also possible is if Alabama has only 1 loss but misses the SEC title game, they might get the nod over Oregon. Whatever the Fiesta Bowl thinks will make it the most money. But Ohio State and Notre Dame would be their first choices I think.
Sugar Bowl – Georgia vs. West Virginia. The Sugar Bowl gets the bad luck of drawing last this year and, as a result, gets stuck with the Big East champion to face off against its automatic SEC champion berth.
If these hold out, every game should be a good one, except for the Sugar Bowl, which will turn out to be a complete slaughter and a yawner of a game.
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Mushroom Clouds
So there is now enough political news to make it worth discussing again.
First, the indictment of Mr. Libby. Many on the left were left a wee bit deflated by this indictment. They had really gotten their hopes up that Mr. Rove would be taken down. I suspect there was that possibility and people are still holding out hope that Mr. Libby will squeal like a stuck pig and finger Mr. Rove. Alas, I don’t believe that is happening. Mr. Libby is accused of lying about his testimony, not anything actually related to the leak. He may not actually have any good information to trade that would give the prosecutor reason to not go after him. Second, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney have been very good about selecting loyalists around them. I believe that Mr. Libby knows far better than to sin against the family. People who do that get buried.
Will it be of any major interest? I don’t know. Very few people in the country seemed to care when Mr. Clinton was indicted for perjury or when Mr. Berger was indicted for destroying documents. People seem to accept that politicians are crooks and we only want them to do more good than harm in the long run. I suspect that as soon as it becomes clear that Mr. Libby is not turning on the Bush administration it will fade from the headlines, especially if the talk of the prewar intelligence does not help the Democrats in 2006. Mr. Libby will probably be convicted on a count or two of making false statements and get a year or less in some cupcake prison, ala Martha Stewart.
Now, to the Supreme Court. Mrs. X is not fond of Mr. Alito and has voiced an opinion that the Miers nomination and withdrawal was a Rovian plot to pave the way for a justice as conservative as Mr. Alito appears to be. I think Mr. Rove was a bit too distracted to hatch a plot this complicated, plus I’m not sure Mr. Bush and his associates are that good with the acting skills. I think they honestly thought Miers would be acceptable because of her religious nature. We know Mr. Bush has a problem with cronyism and I think this was just a glaring case of it.
So, how will it play in the Senate? I think Mr. Alito will get the recommendation from the judiciary committee on party lines 10-8. Mr. Specter is pro-choice but apparently has a bit of a history with Mr. Alito and I think his acknowledgement of Mr. Alito’s credentials will outweigh his misgivings over this issue. Mr. Specter also still owes the Bush administration for backing him in the Republican primary in 2004. Then it goes to the floor. At this point I don’t know if the Democrats will filibuster. Two members of the gang of 14 (Mike De(s)wine and Lindsey Graham) have said that they will support the nuclear option. John McCain has given the impression that he will at least abstain from the vote if not vote for the nuclear option. This gives the Republicans a 50-49 edge and I think John Warner will vote with the party as well for a 51-48 option. So, do Democrats go down swinging or do they hold back keep the filibuster in the arsenal on the off chance that Justice Stevens or Ginsberg drops dead in the next three years? I’m not sure. Kos, MoveOn, and others want the fight to go nuclear on the impression that it will backfire on the GOP. I’m not sold on that argument. Harry Reid has promised to become more obstructionist if the Republicans go nuclear (as last night’s closed door session would indicate) but that might hurt Democrats as well. It would certainly kill Ben Nelson (D-NE) and could cripple Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Kent Conrad (D-ND). I can’t imagine Robert Byrd (D-WV) would be helped much by it either.
While it might enrage their base, I don’t believe that Democrats can afford to filibuster and then appear whiny when things don’t go their way. They have the opportunity to turn 2006 into 1994 and if they play spoiled child, then that might slip out of their fingers. The best option would be to try and highlight the extreme levels of conservatism in some of Mr. Alito’s decisions and look like the party of sanity. Then try and show the Republican majority as government gone amok. But I doubt they will take that road.
First, the indictment of Mr. Libby. Many on the left were left a wee bit deflated by this indictment. They had really gotten their hopes up that Mr. Rove would be taken down. I suspect there was that possibility and people are still holding out hope that Mr. Libby will squeal like a stuck pig and finger Mr. Rove. Alas, I don’t believe that is happening. Mr. Libby is accused of lying about his testimony, not anything actually related to the leak. He may not actually have any good information to trade that would give the prosecutor reason to not go after him. Second, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney have been very good about selecting loyalists around them. I believe that Mr. Libby knows far better than to sin against the family. People who do that get buried.
Will it be of any major interest? I don’t know. Very few people in the country seemed to care when Mr. Clinton was indicted for perjury or when Mr. Berger was indicted for destroying documents. People seem to accept that politicians are crooks and we only want them to do more good than harm in the long run. I suspect that as soon as it becomes clear that Mr. Libby is not turning on the Bush administration it will fade from the headlines, especially if the talk of the prewar intelligence does not help the Democrats in 2006. Mr. Libby will probably be convicted on a count or two of making false statements and get a year or less in some cupcake prison, ala Martha Stewart.
Now, to the Supreme Court. Mrs. X is not fond of Mr. Alito and has voiced an opinion that the Miers nomination and withdrawal was a Rovian plot to pave the way for a justice as conservative as Mr. Alito appears to be. I think Mr. Rove was a bit too distracted to hatch a plot this complicated, plus I’m not sure Mr. Bush and his associates are that good with the acting skills. I think they honestly thought Miers would be acceptable because of her religious nature. We know Mr. Bush has a problem with cronyism and I think this was just a glaring case of it.
So, how will it play in the Senate? I think Mr. Alito will get the recommendation from the judiciary committee on party lines 10-8. Mr. Specter is pro-choice but apparently has a bit of a history with Mr. Alito and I think his acknowledgement of Mr. Alito’s credentials will outweigh his misgivings over this issue. Mr. Specter also still owes the Bush administration for backing him in the Republican primary in 2004. Then it goes to the floor. At this point I don’t know if the Democrats will filibuster. Two members of the gang of 14 (Mike De(s)wine and Lindsey Graham) have said that they will support the nuclear option. John McCain has given the impression that he will at least abstain from the vote if not vote for the nuclear option. This gives the Republicans a 50-49 edge and I think John Warner will vote with the party as well for a 51-48 option. So, do Democrats go down swinging or do they hold back keep the filibuster in the arsenal on the off chance that Justice Stevens or Ginsberg drops dead in the next three years? I’m not sure. Kos, MoveOn, and others want the fight to go nuclear on the impression that it will backfire on the GOP. I’m not sold on that argument. Harry Reid has promised to become more obstructionist if the Republicans go nuclear (as last night’s closed door session would indicate) but that might hurt Democrats as well. It would certainly kill Ben Nelson (D-NE) and could cripple Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Kent Conrad (D-ND). I can’t imagine Robert Byrd (D-WV) would be helped much by it either.
While it might enrage their base, I don’t believe that Democrats can afford to filibuster and then appear whiny when things don’t go their way. They have the opportunity to turn 2006 into 1994 and if they play spoiled child, then that might slip out of their fingers. The best option would be to try and highlight the extreme levels of conservatism in some of Mr. Alito’s decisions and look like the party of sanity. Then try and show the Republican majority as government gone amok. But I doubt they will take that road.
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