Electoral College Update

In my look at congressional districts yesterday, I neglected what was grabbing the attention of the talking heads yesterday, namely the shift in the Electoral College.

Looking ahead to 2012 is mostly pointless as two years is an eternity in politics and much could change, but let's look at the basics of it. Mr. Obama had significant momentum and even if the economy recovers, it seems unlikely to me that he is likely to win any of the states he lost in 2008 to Mr. McCain.

That starts the Republican off with 180 votes (for simplicity, I'm giving the Republican all of Nebraska's 5 votes rather than the 4-1 split in 2008). I think it is not unreasonable to think that Virginia and Indiana will swing back to the Republican column based off more recent elections. That bumps the Republican to 204.

Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina will be tougher and that's where other factors come in to play (like who the Republican nominee is for example). While these have been reddish states in the past, they are more purple and will require more effort to swing back into the red column. Wins in these three states bring the Republican to 266.

This means that to defeat Mr. Obama, the Republican will need to take those three large purple states and one more of the straddlers (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, or New Hampshire). Nevada would probably be the easiest, followed by New Hampshire, but neither of these is automatic.

The census has made things slight more difficult for Mr. Obama, but the path to his reelection still remains mostly the same: hold the traditional blue states, keep most of the bluish-purple little states, and hold one of the big purple states (Florida being the ideal but North Carolina, Virgina, or Ohio would do in a pinch). Obviously much can and will change in the next couple of years, but the path in a broad sense looks fairly straightforward.

2011 Congressional Districts

The 2010 Census figures are being released today. Many states stay the same but a few will need to redraw the congressional districts. The changes are:

Massachusetts: 9 districts (-1)
New York: 27 districts (-2)
New Jersey: 12 districts (-1)
Pennsylvania: 18 districts (-1)
South Carolina: 7 districts (+1)
Georgia: 14 districts (+1)
Florida: 27 districts (+2)
Ohio: 16 districts (-2)
Michigan: 14 districts (-1)
Illinois: 18 districts (-1)
Missouri: 8 districts (-1)
Louisiana: 6 districts (-1)
Texas: 36 districts (+4)
Iowa: 4 districts (-1)
Arizona: 9 districts (+1)
Nevada: 4 districts (+1)
Utah: 4 districts (+1)
Washington: 10 districts (+1)

Each state has it's own rules and deadlines as to when it redraws the lines, but it would seem that most states will have everything in place by Jan. 1, 2012. Most will probably be before that, but the first maps probably won't be available for nearly a year.

Ohio, specifically, has a commission that will consist of the Governor, Auditor, Secretary of State, and two more selected by the Republican and Democratic Legislative leadership (meaning that they will probably pick a Republican and Democrat from the Legislature). That would mean that the commission will be 4-1 Republican and will have until Oct. 5, 2011 to redraw the districts.

Nothing is certain but many political observers think that OH-10 (Kucinich - D) will be divided among it's neighbors (OH-11, OH-13, and OH-14). Not much else has been said as to who else will be without a district in 2012 but I wouldn't be surprised if an attempt was made to squeeze OH-9, OH-13, and OH-17 into two districts with some bleed off being taken from OH-5 and OH-16.

Incidentally, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-13, and OH-17 are the 5 districts that stayed Democrat in the 2010 elections. So, I would expect to see some effort made to keep the 12 Republicans entering the House in 2011 and drop the Democrats from 5 to 3. But I don't know if there are any rules that I'm unaware that will hamstring the commission to keep a certain breakdown based on population.

Major Fire in Israel

A huge fire broke out yesterday in the Carmel region, just south of Haifa.



Arson is strongly suspected. High winds and 6 years of drought have fueled the fire and over 60 people have been confirmed as killed by the fire or related activities. More details can be learned here.

The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 3

Track 11 (Funny Little Things):


Track 12 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha, Reprise):


Track 13 (Misty Mountains Cold):


Bonus (Where there's a Whip, There's a Way):

The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 2

Track 6 (The Greatest Adventure Instrumental):


Track 7 (Dinner at Bag End):


Track 8 (Down Down to Goblin Town):


Track 9 (Rollin' Down a Hole):


Track 10 (Gollum's Riddle):

The Hobbit Soundtrack (1977) pt. 1

Call me a dork, nerd, or whatever, but you cannot possibly imagine how long I have looked for this:

Track 1 (The Greatest Adventure):


Track 2 (In the Valley, Ha, Ha):


Track 3 (Old Fat Spider):


Track 4 (Roads)


Track 5 (Roads Instrumental)

Late Night Funnies

A few of the more funnier moments from the rounds last night:

Conan: President Obama scheduled to grant a turkey the traditional pardon on Wednesday. But a spokesman for the turkey now says it doesn’t need a pardon. It needs a job.

Fallon: Experts announce a new plan to slash the federal debt by $6 trillion. All we have to do is switch from regular light bulbs to not having a federal government.

Leno: House Democrats just elected Nancy Pelosi as their minority leader for the new Congress. Why mess with success, right?

Conan: Congressional Democrats push for $12 billion in additional unemployment benefits. They say they can’t turn their backs on those who until two weeks ago were House Democrats.

Conan: Donald Trump wants to know if people think he should run for president. So his folks launched a website called shouldtrumprun.com. Americans have responded with their own website, no.com

Conan: Oprah Winfrey is reportedly considering buying a property in New Jersey. The property is called, “New Jersey.”

Fallon: GM wants to thank all who made its recovery possible: Toyota’s brakes, Toyota’s steering and Toyota’s accelerators.

Letterman: A new wrinkle this year for Wal-Mart’s midnight store openings on Thanksgiving Friday: They’ve added bulls to the run.

Fallon: New plan out to cover $6 trillion of the nation’s debt. First, look at all the spending for the past five years. Then, ask China for $6 trillion more.

Old Classics

Say what you want about his policies, Ronald Reagan could give a great speech about things that mattered:

Swedish Popcorn

Boomstick

THIS IS MY BOOMSTICK!

(Courtesy of Teefury.com)

Election 2010 Post Mortem

In hindsight, my projections were just a hair too optimistic for the Republicans. It was still a good night, but a few things didn't quite break the way I thought they might. There are still 9 House races that are undecided but if they hold as they currently stand, the Republicans will finish with 243 seats to the Democrats 192 seats. This would be a 64-seat pick-up (or about 6 short of what I projected).

I did worse in the Senate. My gut was wrong about WV where Manchin surged ahead and Harry Reid overcame polling showing him down anywhere from 2-4 points to win by 5. Washington, Colorado, and Alaska are undecided as of yet. In Washington, Murray (D) is ahead by about 14,000 votes at the moment but only 65% of precincts are counted. Bennett (D) is holding on by his fingernails (7,500 votes with 88% of the precincts counted). In Alaska it appears that Murkowski's write-in campaign succeeded but there is a lengthy review process so it may be late November before she is officially certified as the winner. Whether her or Miller, Alaska will stay Republican. As such, if Murray and Bennett win, Democrats will have 53 seats to the Republican's 47 (a gain of 6 seats or 3 short of my prediction).

Ohio on the other hand, went Republican. Republicans swept the state offices and Democrats only retained 5 of 18 House seats (OH-9, 10, 11, 13, 17). With Ohio slated to lose 2 congressional districts next year, expect some serious squashing of these 5 districts to try and force at least one if not two more Democrats out of the House.

Election 2010

As I did two years ago, I'll be posting my random thoughts throughout the day. I'll be doing it on paper and then uploading it later after I leave work so it's more of a historical record rather than a good checking document on happening things.

6:53 AM - Polls have been open for nearly an hour in KY and half an hour in OH. I've printed off my cheat sheet for the house races for tonight:

7:00 AM - Per the discussion I had with Mrs. X last night, here's a list of the OH races we'll be watching (incumbents are bold):

Governor: Ted Strickland (D) vs. John Kasich (R)

Attorney General: Richard Cordray (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R)

Secretary of State: Maryellen O'Shaughnessy (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)

Treasurer: Kevin Boyce (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)

Auditor: David Pepper (D) vs. David Yost (R)

Senator: Lee Fisher (D) vs. Rob Portman (R)

8:07 AM - Captain Ed agrees with me.

11:47 AM - Early reports suggesting lighter turnout in several liberal districts relative to '08. General turnout has been heavy but far below that of the last election.

2:18 PM - Gallup is reporting an enthusiasm gap of 19 points.

3:30 PM - Heading off to vote.

4:15 PM - Voter #310 at my polling place. Pretty high in my opinion.

6:00 PM - Polls closing in parts of IN, KY, and NH

6:10 PM - Hodes (D) leads Ayotte (R) in NH 7-5.

6:12 PM - Paul (R) up 57-42 with >1% reporting in KY

6:13 PM - Fox is listing KY-6 as a race to watch. I doubt it.

6:30 PM - IN-8 at 51-43 for the Republican with 4% reporting.

7:00 PM - Coats (R-IN), Paul (R-KY), Leahy (D-VT), Demint (R-SC) all projected winners

7:45 PM - 5% in and Rubio (R) up 50-22 over Crist (I) in FL.

7:46 PM - D wins KY-3

8:22 PM - Portman wins OH senate seat.

Predictions

Tomorrow is election day so it would only be fair to offer some predictions on how things will go.

Things are looking pretty good for the GOP at the moment. That they will retake the House seems almost certain and many prognosticators have been talking of a 1994-like wave. It may be even bigger than that. Checking RCPs House Rankings, if the Republicans and Democrats take all the seats in the lean or better column assigned to them and you split the Toss-Ups 50-50, the GOP would pick up 66 seats. I think there will be higher GOP turnout that will push this model slightly to the right, so I'm going to offer my pick of 70 seats in the House. That would put it above 1994 (54 seats), but well below the insane wave of 1894 (130 seats).

The Senate is a little trickier. At the moment, I see no evidence that the GOP will lose any of the Senate seats they currently hold. They look to pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Nevada. That would push them to 48 seats.

Democrats will easily keep Hawaii, Maryland, both New York seats, Oregon, and Vermont. I think they will also hold on to Connecticut and Delaware, although these races might be closer than they should be. Either way, the Democrats would have 48 seats at this point.

That leaves Illinois, West Virginia, California, and Washington as the toss-ups. I think Illinois will swing Republican (albeit reluctantly) and I also see West Virginia going Republican despite some polls showing Mr. Manchin (D) ahead. Mr. Obama is still somewhat popular in California so I think that though it will be close, the wave will not be as hard there and Ms. Boxer retains her seat. Washington is a true toss-up but things seem to break Democratic whenever they are so close in that state, so I will give the Democrats that seat as well.

In the end, I think the GOP picks up 9 seats for a 50-50 split with Joe Biden breaking the tie and allowing the Democrats to retain control of the Senate.

Empire Striking Back

Mr. Obama at speech in Cleveland:



Darth Cheney's response:

Smell Like a Monster

Mrs. X found this a few days ago. Hysterical.

I Wear No Pants

My son reminded me of this commercial the other day. Of course, he's 18 months old...

Kucinich in Trouble?

A small poll recently done for OH-10 shows that incumbent Democrat Dennis Kucinich is only up 4 points in his western Cleveland district. If true, it's probably more reflective of Mr. Kucinich's kookiness rather than any overwhelming shift in people turning more conservative.

Still, the idea that a Cleveland Democrat is in trouble does give some perspective on how bad this election could be for the Democrats.

Another district that may turn and is indicative of a significant anti-incumbent fever is OH-6. This is the Appalachian district running down on the border with West Virginia and is the origin of current governor Ted Strickland. It is currently represented by Charlie Wilson (D) (no, not that Charlie Wilson). Despite favoring Republicans on a national level, it has stood solid with Democrats on a more local level.

These two districts will be significant bellwethers about how bad things will be for Democrats in Ohio and possibly nationally as well.

Reds Win! Reds Win!

Last night the Reds clinched the division by defeating the Houston Astros 3-2 on a walk-off home run in the 9th by Jay Bruce. Bruce took the literal first pitch and cracked it over the center field wall. For good measure, the St. Louis Cardinals also lost, firmly cementing the Reds as NL Central Division Champions.

As of right now, the playoffs are nearly set. All four AL teams are decided, although it's not yet clear as to who wins the division and who wins the wild card between the NY Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa leads the division by a 1/2 game). The Rays are also 2 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins for home-field advantage. The Texas Rangers round out the AL field.

In the NL, the Phillies have won the East and have clinched home-field. The Reds have the Central. That leaves the West and the wild card. The SF Giants have a 2-game lead on the San Diego Padres for the West and the Atlanta Braves have a 1-1/2 game lead over the Padres for the wild card. All other teams have been eliminated from contention.

For the AL, the East winner will almost surely face off against the Rangers while the Twins take on the wild card winner.

In the NL, the Giants are a game ahead of the Reds for record. If the season ended today, the Phillies would play the Reds and the Giants would play the Braves. But this might change based on the last five games of the season.

Tracking the House

Last week I noted what would constitute good news and bad news for the Democrats in the Senate on election night. Now we should take a quick look at the House.

Currently, the House has 255 Democratic members, 178 Republican members and 2 vacancys. To retain the majority, the Democrats must keep 218 seats or no worse than a loss of 37 seats. I found this map on Realclearpolitics:

The color code breakdown is as follows. Red and Blue denote Republican and Democrat seats that either have not been polled or are considered to stay with their current representation. Salmon are Democratic seats that are considered to likely to switch. Light blue are Republican seats likely to switch and purple are toss ups.

If this map held, the Republicans would have 206 seats and the Democrats would have 191 seats with 38 seats in toss-up. Given this, a good night for the Democrats would mean simply keeping control of the House: 218+ seats (loss of 37 or less). A bad night would mean loss of control and loss of most of the toss-up seats: 200-217 (loss of 38-55 seats). A really bad night would be the loss of all the toss-up seats and not gaining the vunerable Republican seats: 185-199 (loss of 56-70 seats). A "let's get drunk night" would be losing even some of the leaner seats: 184 or less (loss of more than 70 seats).

Senate Balance

While there are many races going on to be decided in 6 weeks, the Senate seems to be capturing the most attention. At the moment there are 59 Democratic Senators and 41 Republicans. It has become almost a given at this point to say that the Democrats are going to lose some seats to the Republicans and the question is just how many. Some go so far as to say that the Republicans might even take hold of the Senate. Let's examine the balance to see how likely that is.

Currently there are 18 seats held by Republicans and 19 seats held by Democrats that are on the ballot. Four of these are special elections: New York for the remainder of Ms. Clinton's term (currently held by Ms. Gillibrand), Illinois for the remainder of Mr. Obama's term (currently held by Mr. Burris), Delaware for the remainder of Mr. Biden's term (currently held by Mr. Kaufman), and West Virginia for the remainder of Mr. Byrd's term (currently held by Mr. Goodwin).

As of right now, the GOP does not look as though they will lose any seats. Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio are tighter races but the polling seems to favor the Republicans. In the same vein, the Republicans look as though they will pick up North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania. That would push the GOP to 45 seats.

On the Democratic side, they have locks on Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont. They are likely to retain Delaware, New York (special), and Connecticut. That puts the Democrats at 48 seats.

That leaves the following seats in a state of flux: California, Washington, West Virginia, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin. I think the odds favor the Democrats keeping California and Washington. The Democratic governor running for the West Virginia is popular and has the inside track for that seat, but the Republican has kept on his heels. If the Democrats retain all three of these seats, that puts them at 51 seats.

Current polling favors the Republicans in the 4 remaining seats, which would leave the Senate at 51-49, Democratic control. Now, the one thing that no one seems to be able to get a firm handle on is turnout. Heavy turnout by one side or the other would upend these numbers. A good night for the Democrats would have them retain the 4 toss-ups and press for the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania seats. A bad night for the Democrats would be to lose the 4 toss-ups and be pressed in the three medium seats mentioned above. A really bad night would have the Republicans take all 7 of these seats and press in Connecticut, Delaware, or even the special election in New York. These are unlikely, but it does give us a sense of scale for these races.

So we can rate Senate control is this manner:
Good Night for Democrats (54+ seats)
Bad Night for Democrats (50-53 seats)
Really Bad Night for Democrats (47-49 seats)
Democratic Seppeku (Less than 47 seats)

Tea Party Fallout

Ms. O'Donnell won last night 53-47. The first polls coming out after the contest show her down about 15 points. Interestingly, when she first announced back in July, she polled 3 points above Mr. Coons but then the internecine warfare began.

Can she recover? Perhaps but it will take a significant GotV effort. Democrats outnumber Republicans in Delaware by about 2-1. A significant number of them will have to stay home and Ms. O'Donnell will have to score big among the Independents as well. A tall order for only a month and a half of campaigning.

The one other story that is not getting any play for some reason is the jeopardy that Senator Russ Feingold (D) is finding himself in. Ron Johnson easily won the Republican nomination last night and will be challenging him for the Wisconsin Senate seat. I've been following the poll tracking on this race and the two men have been neck and neck since Johnson announced back in May. Mr. Feingold seems to be unable to break 46 percent in polling while Mr. Johnson dances around him between 44 and 47 points. If turnout is as weighted toward the Republicans as the grand poobahs seem to think they will be, Mr. Feingold may be in trouble of losing his seat. That would be significant.

Delaware Blood

Tonight marks the last major primary night before the November mid-terms. Hawaii will have a primary later this month, but this is last big one. Most of the races are already predetermined but there is one that is causing a true explosion in Republican circles.

Democrats settled on their nominee for the open Delaware senate seat months ago (Chris Coons). The Republicans looked like they had settled on their nominee as well (Current House Rep. Mike Castle), but there has been a late surge by Christine O'Donnell, who is backed by the state tea party.

The issue has become quite contentious as it has evolved into a purity contest. Mr. Castle is seen as something of a RINO (having voted with the GOP only about 85% of the time in the last term of Congress) but is almost certain to crush Mr. Coons in the general (current polling has Castle up 48-37). Ms. O'Donnell is more conservative in her positions but is seen as a flawed candidate who will lose to Mr. Coons (current polling has her down 47-36).

So this has become a purity debate. Is it better to win with a candidate who is squishy in their positions or better to lose with a pure candidate? Either way, the fallout from tonight's primary will be amusing to read.

Polls close at 8pm in Delaware.

Incoming...

Earl from space:

WTF?

What the bloody hell is this?

Vader Makes OJ

I pulled this from TeeFury. Very funny.

War in Israel?

Earlier today, Lebanese Army forces opened fire on an Israeli patrol that was cutting down a tree that was obstructing the border fence. Israel has returned fire. Rumors are swirling that Hamas has fired rockets as well into Israel. Further updates should be found on Israellycool and The Muqata.

UPDATE:

Things are calmer today and neither side seems to have advanced into the next stage. Here is a detailed account of what happened. The root of this seems to have been a group of Lebanese soldiers loyal to Hezbollah. They learned about the Israeli plan to remove some brush from the fence (all in Israeli territory) from UNIFIL and initiated sniper fire. Israel responded, killing three Lebanese troops and a journolist on the payroll of Hezbollah, who was there to document the battle against the Israelis.

Words of Warning

"I think, when one has been angry for a very long time, one gets used to it. And it becomes comfortable like...like old leather. And finally...feels so humiliated one can't remember feeling any other way."
- Captain Jean-Luc Picard, The Wounded

Watch Your Head

This is what a 2-lb hailstone does to your car:

Imagine what it would do to a person's head.

Mayan Calendar Truth Revealed

The truth of the great Mayan Long Count Calendar has been revealed:

More ROV Views

This link shows even more ROVs that are currently being used to check on the new cap. The cap is on but it is not hooked up as they test the pressure and the effects of raising the pressure in the pipe. Time will tell if this will work or not.

What is That?

Something popped up over China. Could be something Chinese, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Soccer Truth

I like World Cup, but this really is soccer to a tee:

No Fishing Zone

NOAA has expanded the "No Fishing Zone" on the Gulf. It now comprimises approximately 33.5% of Gulf Waters:

Volcanic Contrast

This picture was taken earlier in the year showing the eruption of the Icelandic volcano while the Northern Lights play above. Very pretty.

Listing BOP

Even though Hurricane Alex is no where near the site of the oil leak, the wave action is having some serious effects on the BOP and the collection pipe. Watching the "front" end from Enterprise 1 and the "back" from Skandi 2 show the funnel waving back and forth quite a lot. The collective hits have been bad enough that one of the guide fins (which look like 1/2" plate steel to me) has been bent and is now askew.

The resulting hits seem to have had an effect on the BOP as well. The Coast Guard is stating that the BOP is now listing 12 degrees. When you watch the feeds (especially Skandi 2 which has a fixed object for a frame of reference) you can see the cap rocking and the BOP swaying like a tree in the breeze.

Knowing what I know about metal fatigue (especially low cycle fatigue), I'm not sure the BOP is going to last until the relief wells are drilled. Catastrophic failure of the BOP will certainly increase the flow rate of the leak and I don't know how that will impact the ability of the relief well to stop the overall leak.

Optical Oil Tricks

So, who sees a white horse galloping towards Florida?

Lightning

Apparently this strike took place in Chicago two days ago. I wouldn't have wanted to be in either tower, but it looks cool:

Second Leak?

Periodically, I sweep the live feeds of the ROVs monitoring the Gulf Oil Spill. This morning I saw something that has me a touch more worried. This is the feed from the Intervention ROV1. At first glance, it looks like it's off-line but then you see something faintly green and moving in the background. If you watch long enough, you see bits of sea detritus or one of the ROV cables move back and forth so you know that the cameras are on. I tried doing a print screen of the shot but instead of a picture of the screen, it kept streaming the live feed.

So what are we seeing? The fact that the light is off and that the depth gauge in the upper right corner is consistently reading 4900 ft tells me that a second leak has sprung from the sea floor. Judging from what I can see of the plume, it looks fairly strong too. Many people have speculated that there have been additional breeches. I think this confirms it.

As an aid, here are the links to some of the other ROVs:

Enterprise 2 - this one has been watching the top of the BOP and the cap. Incidentally, you can see that the BOP is starting to list.
Skandi 1 - Top of the BOP from a different angle
Skandi 2 - in a holding pattern at the moment of this posting.
Intervention 2 - currently offline
Enterprise 1 - currently offline
Q4000 1 - in a holding pattern at the moment
Q4000 2 - in a holding pattern at the moment

For quick check, here's all at once.

Oil Diagram

Here's a visual aid of a standard subsea pipe casing and some of my markings on what has probably happened to the casing:

On a much lighter note, here's some nonsense from an Australian politician about a tanker spill in 2007. Put in John Cleese and you'd swear it was Monty Python:

Oil Spill Update

Something very cool happened today. I found out last night about the cap that will fit on top of the leaking BOP in the Gulf, which should capture all of the escaping oil until the relief wells are drilled. A couple of the guys I work with are doing some work on it as well and it's cool to see some of the pictures. Once it's in place down in the Gulf, I'll see if I can post a pic of it.

Countering this interesting news, people have been posting theories and other information on what might be happening and what could happen. Worst case scenario is actually really, really bad. What I've been able to glean is that this oil reserve is about 25,000 sq. miles, which makes it the second largest ocean oil reserve in the world (the one off the coast of Brazil is the largest). Also, because of the depth of the reserve, the oil coming out is about 40% methane. Methane is the gas that provides the pressure that drives the oil out of the well.

The failure of the top kill method last month proved that there is a rupture in the pipe below the surface of the sea floor. It may be way deep or may be only 100 ft. below the surface. Because the pressure of the oil is so high and there is so much gas mixed in, gas has likely been escaping through the sub-floor rupture and creating a secondary gas bubble below the surface of the gulf.

Now, the danger is that if the pressure is not relieved in time (by the relief well or if they clamp too much pressure on the BOP), the gas under the surface of the seabed could explode, collapsing the sea floor. This in turn could result in either of two things: Either the BOP crashes down into the hole, collapses and the hole expands providing a greater escape for the oil; or the collapse of the sea bed causes a cascade of sea floor collapse (like floors of a building collapsing each other) and the entire floor collapses into the oil reservoir. If that happens, the pressure release would likely create a tidal wave that could reach supersonic speed. The resulting wave would wipe out nearly everything in Florida (elevation barely tops six feet) and could go north upwards of 20-50 miles.

Huffpo has something similar described.

Even worse, some have questioned whether the resulting collapse and earthquake that would follow might not set off the Yellowstone Caldera volcano. If that happened, the entire Western United States would simply disappear in the eruption. But that's an extreme event.

Hopefully, the relief wells work and all of this is just tin-foil hat stuff. I'll try and keep everyone advised.

*UPDATE*

Look at the lower right hand corner in this video. Doesn't that look like some sort of gremlin from the Twilight Zone?

Low Points

One of the lowest points of the Jimmy Carter presidency was the so-called Malaise speech. Dark and lecturing, it was exactly what the public didn't want to hear, although it did offer solutions and substance.

Mr. Obama's speech last night apparently made some people wish for even that level of effort.

Irony - Ohio Edition

Last night the large statue of Jesus outside the Solid Rock Church on I-75 (known by many as Touchdown Jesus) burned down after being struck by lighting. That is what's known as irony.

Hosed

If you think things are bad with the oil spill now, wait until you read about what could happen if that relief well isn't drilled in time. Dire consequences indeed.

Unused Oil Boom

Government competency at its finest.

Rowing Along

With everything going on, this crosses my mind every now and again:

There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing
Is it raining? Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a-blowing?

Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a-glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing!!!

Watch Your Step

Now that's a sinkhole:

Israel Completly Justified

There has been a lot of buzz over the incident late Sunday night/Monday morning of the storming of the Gaza blockade runners. Probably the best details I've seen of the incident can be found here. Yes I know it's an Israeli blog but it has the most detail I've been able to find of the incident.

Frankly even without the details written there, I am in full support of the Israelis. Turkey and the other sponsors of this flotilla made no secret of their plans to run a blockade that has been declared against an entity (Hamas) that is at war with Israel. Every aspect of international law has been followed giving Israel complete justification for their actions; never mind their soldiers defending themselves with lethal force upon being attacked.

Honestly, the Israelis have shown great restraint in this situation. I would have been sorely tempted to let the ships get within 1 mile of the blockade line, give them reasonable warning through loudspeakers, then put a torpedo into the hull of the lead vessel as they crossed the 12-mile line. That would probably have been seen as excessive (although the UN still hasn't condemned North Korea for doing almost exactly the same thing - and there was no blockade running in that situation).

Some would like to believe that cooler heads will prevail. I don't think so. It could be a small affair, or it could spiral into an Isaiah 17 situation. We shall see.

More Earthquakes

7.4 of the coast of Vanuatu. Tsunami warnings have been issued.

His Name was Samuel

Lost is officially over. A very good show, tedious at times, frustrating at others, but still an overall good experience.

I myself enjoyed the finale. I had made peace with the idea a few weeks ago that we were not going to get answers to all our questions. The finale did a pretty good job of reminding people that the show ultimately was about characters and not the location.

That being said, some answers are nice to get. Obviously we didn't want the laundry list approach that we got in Revenge of the Sith, but an answer here and there was good (closure on Rose, Bernard, and Vincent for example). Rumor has it that the additional 20 minutes of footage that will be on the DVD will contain a couple of answers. I don't know if the name of the Man-in-Black was to be part of that, but I read a post that had that info. That post has been removed so I don't know how accurate that info is. Still, it makes for a good post title.

I am sad that Lost is gone, but I enjoyed it and maybe I'll even think about picking up the DVDs someday. But I think some time will have to pass before I go down that road.

Get Your Own Dirt

This news item reminded me of this joke:

One day a group of scientists got together and decided that man had come a long way and no longer needed God. So they picked one scientist to go and tell Him that they were done with Him.

The scientist walked up to God and said, "God, we've decided that we no longer need you. We're to the point that we can clone people and do many miraculous things, so why don't you just go on and get lost."

God listened very patiently and kindly to the man and after the scientist was done talking, God said, "Very well, how about this, let's say we have a man making contest." To which the scientist replied, "OK, great!"

But God added, "Now, we're going to do this just like I did back in the old days with Adam."

The scientist said, "Sure, no problem" and bent down and grabbed himself a handful of dirt.

God just looked at him and said, "No, no, no. You go get your own dirt!"

Anti-Incumbency?

There were a number of primary races but four in particular seemed to be played up more than the rest.

The first was the Republican nomination in Kentucky. In that, Rand Paul (son of Ron Paul) defeated Trey Grayson. Grayson had been recruited by Mitch McConnell and was seen as more representing the establishment while Paul is the darling of the Kentucky Tea Party and has no specific political experience (aside from what he got helping his father).

The second race was the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha (D-PA) in PA-12. In that race, Mark Critz (D) defeated Tim Burns (R) by 8 points (53-45). PA-12 is heavily Democratic but it went for McCain in the general so the message is mixed. Mr. Critz did make a big show of opposing key points of Mr. Obama's agenda so his record for the remainder of the term will likely make or break him come November when he faces off against Mr. Burns again.

Also in Pennsylvania, Arlen Spector was knocked out by Joe Sestak in the Democratic Senate primary. This is being spun as part of the anti-incumbent movement but the particulars should be examined here. Mr. Spector had been a Republican for 29 of his 30 years in the Senate and then flipped because he knew he was probably going to lose to Pat Toomey in the Republican primary (Toomey won easily). That doesn't breed a lot of loyalty even if you do have the backing of the White House and the DSCC. Plus, if one actually takes a deeper look at the polling, Mr. Sestak was polling better against Mr. Toomey anyway. So why not go with him rather than the old turncoat?

The final race of interest was the Democratic Senate primary in Arkansas. Blanche Lincoln was facing a challenge from the left in the form of Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Ms. Lincoln earned more votes (barely) but failed to achieve 50% of the total so a runoff will be held on June 8 to determine who faces off against John Boozman. This may be an open purity test by the Democrats as neither Ms. Lincoln or Mr. Halter have cracked 40% in the polls. In that case, Democrats may be saying that if we're going to lose, we're going to lose with the candidate we like rather than squishy middle of the roaders. We'll have to see who gets that remaining 10% of the vote in three weeks.

All in all, I think the mood is not so much anti-incumbent as it is a strive for purity. Both sides are purging the party of both those who have been in Washington a long time and those seen as middle of the road folk. I think drives of more conservative candidates is being paralleled by drives for more liberal candidates. The gap between the sides is getting wider, not narrower.

Another 7

Two days ago, the northern portion of the island of Sumatra was hit with a 7.4 earthquake. No deaths were reported but for those of you keeping track, this is now the 8th earthquake this year that has been 7.0 or greater. There have been another 66 earthquakes between 6.0 and 6.9.

First Primary Results

Primaries were held in Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina last night. The results were pretty boring for the most part. Dan Coats (R) won out in Indiana to take on Brad Ellsworth (D) for Evan Byah's (D) Senate seat. Lee Fisher (D) will face Rob Portman (R) for George Voinovich's (R) Senate seat. Neither of these results are surprising.

Turnout was actually pretty abysmal in Ohio as most of the races were unopposed affairs. One might have thought that the Fisher/Brunner race might have peak the Dems a little bit, but that was not the case.

In OH-2 where I live, Ms. Schmidt (R) prevailed with 61.6% of the vote. Her closest competitor, Mike Kilburn, got slammed with only 22.3% of the vote. She will face off against Surya Yalamanchili (D) who snagged 40.8% against two other candidates. Mr. Yalamanchili was the dark horse in this one but benefited when his closest rival, David Krikorian, made a statement that someone with so obvious an Indian name could not get elected. This may be true or not, but it was seen as a racist attack and both men reaped the effects.

About the only interesting thing that happened was in the North Carolina primary. There, the incumbent, Richard Burr (R) was to find out whom he would face. However, North Carolina law stipulates that the primary race winner must have at least 40% of the vote or a run-off is held between the top two candidates. Elaine Marshall (NC Secretary of State) only secured 36.4% and thus must face a run-off against Cal Cunningham (27.3%) on June 22. Thus, Mr. Burr gets that much longer to plot strategy and raise money.

Next Tuesday (May 11) is the Georgia primary. A more interesting set of primaries will be held on May 18 when Arkansas, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania go to the polls.

Samaritan Passover

One of the Israel blogs I like to read did a profile of the Samaritan Passover. The Samaritans are a mixed breed of Jews and Gentiles (specifically Babylonians) that formed their own version of Judaism during Alexander the Great's conquest (331 BCE).

Anyway, they are apparently allowed to celebrate a Passover sacrifice that allows for the formal sacrifice of sheep (unlike the Jews). This apparently is a big deal with a lot of Jews and other outsiders coming to observe the event. The write up with pictures (a couple are a little graphic) is located here. From a cultural and religious point of view, its quite fascinating. You can also see how the desire is growing stronger among Jews in Israel to rebuild the Temple and resume a similar practice.

Engineering Made Simple

For those you who do not like Dilbert, this is a good example of how things go in the engineering world:This is especially true for the documentation aspect.

Stupid Banner of the Day

I'm not a big fan of the new Arizona law. Frankly, anything that allows authority figures to stop a person on the street and demand to see his papers smacks heavily of the Soviet Union/Nazi Germany, etc. However, whoever wrote this banner at MSNBC needs to be smacked hard:

By definition, status as an illegal immigrant is a crime (punishable by deportation). The Arizona law just gives the police new powers to enforce what is already an illegal act. This is my main objection. There are already sufficient laws that if they were simply enforced, illegal immigration would be a significantly smaller problem.

But that doesn't stop the MSNBC writer from being a moron.

Things Going Wrong

The company that subcontracts to my company is very nice about sending us pictures of stuff that we have worked on. Its rather nice to see the final result of all that work. However, we also see what happens when things that we work on go wrong:

I myself never worked on the Deepwater Horizon, but it still gives one an eerie feeling knowing that I have worked on stuff for nearly identical rigs.

Bad News for Europe

Nearly all Western European flights have been cancelled due the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull (ay-yah-FYAH'-plah-yer-kud-duhl) volcano in Iceland. People have been hoping that they'll be able to get airborne by Sunday or Monday. However the last time this volcano erupted, it lasted for 14 months (Dec. 1821-Jan. 1823). That would have a devastating impact on the economy and ecology of Europe. It gets even worse when noted that the lava flow could trigger an eruption in the neighboring volcano which could trigger a major temperature drop across the globe.

It should also be noted that this volcano has now put more CO2 and pollution into the atmosphere than every car in Europe since the automobile was invented.

Anthropological GW... bah!

Earth is Not Happy

A volcano has been erupting in Iceland.

6.9 earthquake in China, very close to adding to the 7.0+ total that was noted last week.

Something is definately up from a geologic standpoint.

Future Tech

Someone sent out a slide show of some future technology that various companies are working on. Personally, I love this bathtub:

I was also highly amused by these two pictures of a coat that stores energy and illuminates at night. It reminds me way too much of Tron:

Federalism When Desired

I ran across this excellent rebuttal to Federal oversight of health care today, written by Lori Swanson (D), Attorney General of Minnesota:

What ails the federal government, however, is not the lack of regulatory authority but the lack of will to use it.

Over the past 50 years, deregulation at the federal level has no doubt improved efficiency in some industries. But federal regulatory indifference has ill-served the public in many others: the Food and Drug Administration's aversion to oversight of pharmaceuticals; the Justice Department's reluctance to enforce the antitrust laws; the Department of Labor's hesitance to regulate federally governed health plans; the Federal Communication Commission's unwillingness to rein in media concentration; and the Environmental Protection Agency's failure to address invasive species in the Great Lakes or carbon, mercury and ozone emissions. The list goes on and on. With this kind of performance record in Washington, now is not the time for the state government to forfeit consumer protection to the feds.

The administration also wants to allow insurance companies to be regulated exclusively by the federal government. This not only would undermine the ability of states to protect policyholders from unfair insurance practices, it probably would raise insurance rates in states like Minnesota. Midwestern states often have lower property- and casualty-insurance rates because they don’t have the same hazards — hurricanes, outdated building code enforcement, urban fires, etc. — that result in higher rates on the two coasts and in the South. A federal insurance-rate regulation system would likely gloss over geographical differences, causing Minnesota’s insurance premiums to go up.

State government has shown that it can be more responsive to the needs of the ordinary citizen. For example, in 2006, while the states were pursuing Ameriquest Mortgage for $325 million over its predatory lending practices, the White House was busy appointing the company’s CEO to be ambassador to the Netherlands.

There is just one small caveat about this rebuttal. It was written in opposition to Bush's proposal of a federal Mortgage Origination Commission in 2008. Ms. Swanson has not extended the same argument to Mr. Obama's regulations on health care insurance. In fact, she is filing an amicus brief in support of the Obama administration against several lawsuits being filed by the AGs of other states.

Hold one position or another but don't be caught as two-faced just because of how it might benefit you.

Special Elections

We already knew that the special election for PA-12 was going to happen on May 18. What we didn't know was that the Republicans and the Democrats got together in their smokey backrooms and selected candidates for the special election: Tim Burns (R) and Mark Critz (D). Now the odd thing is that in the same election, the voters will select a replacement of these two men and also select the nominees for the regular election in November. One would presume that they might be the same, but that is not assured. Whoever wins the special election will almost certainly be the nominee in the general election, but it is possible that the loser could also lose the nomination to another candidate. Very odd series of events.

Four days later on May 22, there will be an open election for HI-1. Under norman circumstances this would be a Democratic walk in the park (Neil Abercrombie won with 70.6% in 2008). However, the Democrats are split between Ed Case (a blue dog) and Colleen Hanabusa (traditional liberal) while the Republicans have just Charles Djou. There might be enough of a split to give Mr. Djou the win, but even now, Democrats are taking steps to prevent that.

Earthquakes

Tell me that this doesn't make you sit up just a little bit:

January 3, 2010 - Solomon Islands: 7.1
January 12, 2010 - Leogane, Haiti: 7.0
February 27, 2010 - Curinape, Chile: 8.8
March, 8, 2010 - Ryukyu Islands, Japan: 7.0
April 4, 2010 - Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico: 7.2
April 7, 2010 - Aceh, Indonesia: 7.8

There's a lot of heavy shaking going on. I hope this isn't building towards anything nastier than what we've already seen.

Quick Primary Reference

A quick reference when trying to remember the dates of the various primaries. Ohio is May 4.

Unlikely Final Four

I want to see a bracket (any bracket) that had these teams in the Final 4:

#5 Michigan St. vs. #5 Butler

#2 West Virginia vs. #1 Duke

The only one of these that I got right was Duke. I had Kansas, Kansas St., and Kentucky rounding out the brackets.

I can imagine that the powers that be probably would like Michigan St. vs Duke in the finals. Both teams have large followings with a good history behind them. I personally would like to see Butler vs. West Virginia with Butler winning the whole thing.

Butler is in the Horizon League and the last time that a non-BCS conference won the National Championship was in 1990 when UNLV won (they were in the Big West then and are part of the Mountain West now). Prior to that, you would have to go back to Louisville winning it in 1980 (Louisville was in the Metro Conference then).

Butler does have one advantage that the other schools do not. Butler is actually located in Indianapolis, where the championship games will be played. At the very least, they will enjoy a sizable home court advantage.

219-212

Bart Stupak and his block caved to a promise of an executive order defunding the abortion provisions in the Senate bill. Very stupid in my opinion as one, I'm not sure that an executive order on funding is even legal; and two, the President (or any subsequent President) could simply choose to ignore or even rescind the order. In other words, it's not worth the paper it's printed on.

The Senate version of the bill will be signed into law (probably today) while an amending package will be sent to the Senate to go through reconciliation. Republicans will try to stop it and personally, I think the Senate will choose to do very little with it, saving their own necks and effectively hanging the House out to dry.

In the spirit of the new law, here's a catchy little tune for you.

But Winston, Oceania Has Always Been at War with Eastasia

“We have a political culture in which the word ‘reconciliation’ has come to mean ‘bitter division.'"

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. Debt is Solvency.


I wish I could say that I thought of that analogy, but I found it somewhere else.

Trust Me...

Yesterday, the Senate Parliamentarian ruled that the Senate is not allowed to take up Reconciliation measures regarding the Health Care Bill until President Obama has signed it into law. Essentially this means that any changes the House would have liked to make would be placed on hold. Before anything else may be considered, they must pass the Senate version of the bill as written and then Mr. Obama must sign it.

This actually is potential bad news for Mr. Obama. Up until now, there has been a game of chicken going on between Democrats in the House and Democrats in the Senate, neither one wanting to commit any more political capital to a very unpopular measure. Now the Senate is off the hook and the House has to indulge in a huge trust me.

Let's be frank. The House hates this version of the bill. All 178 Republicans have committed to voting against it. Bart Stupak and his 14 other Pro-Life Democrats have stated that they will not vote for the Senate version due to it's Federal funding of abortion. A number of Blue Dog Democrats don't want to vote for it because it means humiliating defeat in their conservative districts (Heath Schuler being a prime example).

Adding to Ms. Pelosi's woes are members of the Progressive Caucus (like Dennis Kucinich) who are livid that the Senate version does not contain a Public Option for health care and imposes a heavy tax on Union pension plans. There have also been rumblings that both the CBC and the CHC are unhappy and may vote no because of the lack of perks for their own constituents.

The main problem is that no one wants to touch an unpopular bill and House Democrats are worried that they will be hung out to dry. The theory goes that after the House passes the bill and Mr. Obama signs it into law, the Senate will go through Reconciliation to change budgetary matters within the bill that no one likes. This includes removing the large bribes paid to Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA). However, the House is deathly afraid that once Mr. Obama signs the bill, he will call it a great accomplishment and the matter will be dropped. The Senate will not bother with Reconciliation and the House will be left holding the bag while the members of their districts sharpen their knives.

To pass the bill, Ms. Pelosi needs 216 votes (this is reduced from the normal 218 votes due to four vacancies in the House at the moment: Robert Wexler (FL-19), Jack Murtha (PA-12), Neil Abercrombie (HI-1), and Eric Massa (NY-29)). As stated above, 178 Republicans and 15 Democrats are absolute "nos" at the moment. Which means that of the 39 Democrats who voted no last time, she will have to flip 17 of them while making sure that none of the more liberal members flip to no as a sign of protest.

A tall order, even without the stink of fear.

Very Early Handicapping

It's amazing what one bad year will do to a politician. Granted, the Presidential election season gets longer and longer, but it seems that people have already factored in that the Republicans are going to make significant gains in 2010 and are starting to look at 2012.

This isn't very practical as two and a half years is a very long time politically (we all thought Mr. Clinton was dead in Dec. 1994) and we can only estimate how the electoral votes will be recast following the 2010 census. Most people seem to be looking at the projections that Wiki quotes, which would take 7 from Mr. Obama and give them to Mr. McCain for a 358-180 win for Mr. Obama.

Playing my own game with the numbers, I start Mr. Obama with 222 EV and the Republican with 181 (for ease of math I'm giving the R all of Nebraska rather than the 4-1 split of 2008). In 2008, all the swing states broke for Mr. Obama. Depending on the quality of the candidate and the current economic climate, I think the Republicans have a good shot at taking back Virginia (13), North Carolina (15) and Indiana (11). I also think that if the cards are played correctly, the Republicans take back Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). This brings the balance up to 235-222.

Of the remaining states, Florida is the brass ring. Florida is expected to gain 1 vote for a total of 28 votes. If the Republican wins that they would only need 7 more votes to win (alternatively, the Republicans could concede Colorado and take Ohio (18) to win if they take Florida). On the other hand, if Mr. Obama takes Florida and then holds Pennsylvania, he gets 270 exactly and the rest is irrelevant.

It is possible that one side may make a play for a state that's been solid to one side, but that adds to much variable to the mix at the moment. Still, I would warn Floridians to prepare themselves for intense bombardment over the entire stretch of 2012.

Pretty

These are compiled images from the NASA satellite TERRA:

Perry Vs White

No, this isn't a Superman bit.

Texas had their primary Tuesday and Gov. Rick Perry managed to get the better than 50% he needed to avoid a run-off against Sen. Hutchison. I saw a little too much of this race while I was in Houston as both sides went at it hammer and tongs with ads.

Mr. Perry will square off against Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election in November. Mr. Perry is seeking his third full term (he took over when George W. Bush resigned to assume the Presidency) and has been dogged with accusations of cronyism and other things associated with staying in office for a long time. However, Texas is in a real conservative mood these days and Mr. Perry's almost CSA rhetoric should get him in well enough to soundly defeat Mr. White.

Welcome to the Planet Hoo-ston

I'm in Houston, TX for business this week and the next. I was actually supposed to arrive here on Monday, but a major snowstorm hit Cincinnati that day and the plane I was on had a deicing malfunction. By the time they were in a mode to get it fixed, the flight had been cancelled. So I and my co-worker were switched to an American flight to Chicago where we were to pick up another flight to Houston.

After sitting around the airport for nearly 11 hours (including a boarding and a disembarking of the first plane) I was finally aboard the flight to Chicago. That was then in-turn delayed nearly an hour and a half because the deicing machine ran out of fluid and had to get refilled. So a flight that was supposed to leave Cincinnati at 5:30, didn't leave until a little after 7. We gained an hour into Chicago but still landed nearly a half an hour after our connecting flight had left.

American gave us a partial voucher for a nice hotel in Chicago. Unfortunately, the person working the ticket counter didn't tell us that our bags would be held at the gate and sent on ahead on the first flight to Houston. So we waited an additional hour and a half at the luggage carousel before we got the story straight from the lost bag folks. So after all that, we crashed at the hotel.

Things got a little better the next day. The wrong gate was printed on our tickets but we corrected ourselves long before our flight left. On boarding, something was wrong with my ticket and they issued me a new seat number, only to find out that someone was already sitting there. Fortunately, the seat next to him was empty and I was told to sit there. The flight was only slightly delayed and we finally landed in Houston around 1 pm Tuesday afternoon. We were supposed to arrive around 8 am Monday morning.

Houston itself isn't bad. It's funny to see the people bundling up in tight coats when it only gets to 50 degrees. After the snow storm, this feels balmy to me. I have gotten a comment or two when I went out to the shop to look at some equipment wearing no coat and just a short sleeve knit shirt. But, I would probably be dying in July and August while they didn't feel it.

Can't say I would want to live here, but it's not the worst place I've visited earlier. Here's the overhead shot of where I am:

RI-1

Camelot is now officially over. It's been over for a while but yesterday Patrick Kennedy, son of Ted and representative for Rhode Island's first district, announced that he would not seek reelection. As such, when the new Congress convenes in January 2011 it will be the first time that no one from the Kennedy clan has not been in either the Legislative or Executive Branch of government since Jan. 1947.

Kennedy had been trailing in the polls and his numerous scrapes with the law may have finally been catching up to him. State Representative Jon Brien (D) had been mulling a primary challenge against Kennedy and now it appears that he could easily step in as the Democratic nominee. The Republican nominee will likely be State Representative John Loughlin.

The removal of Kennedy from the equation will probably ensure that this seat stays Democratic. Kennedy had a lot of personal baggage that could have been used against him. Without that baggage, the seat should easily revert to it's natural liberal tilt.

PA-12

Yesterday, the representative of PA-12, John Murtha (D), died due to complications from gall bladder surgery. These complications are believed to have been the result of a nicked instestine that allowed infection to set in. Needless to say, a lawsuit by the family is probably in the offering.

PA-12 was expected to be competitive (McCain won the district in 2008) but Mr. Murtha had managed to beat back some very robust challengers over the years. With his death, the race effectively moves into toss-up status. Gov. Ed Rendell has 10 days to set a date for a special election which must be held no sooner than 60 days after the declared vacancy (yesterday). The expectation is that the special election will be held on May 18, which is already slated as the date for various primaries (effectively saving Pennsylvania a little money).

Two Democrats had declared primary challenges to Mr. Murtha (although neither was expected to do much): Naval officer Ryan Bucchianeri and attorney Ron Mackell. On the Republican side, the two declared candidates were 2008 nominee Tim Burns and Army veteran Bill Russell. No mention has been made, but one would expect the special election to be an open field with all four (or more) candidates on the ballot. It is also possible that party leaders from both sides could simply decide on their candidates (sans primary) and just field two names. Things will become clearer in the coming days.

It has also been pointed out that the death of Mr. Murtha now puts the HealthCare Bill in serious trouble in the House. The first version passed with 220 votes (218 needed for passage). Since then, the lone Republican who voted for it, Joseph Cao, has stated that he will not vote for it again and Robert Wexler (FL-19) has resigned to take another job. With Mr. Murtha's death, there are now only 217 votes, meaning that Ms. Pelosi will have to flip a "no" to pass the bill. In reality, she would have to flip two votes as Neil Abercrombie (HI-1) will be resigning effective Feb. 28.

Good Game

Arguably, Super Bowl XLIV was the best Super Bowl I've seen since Super Bowl XXXIV. I don't think it was better than that one, but it was certainly a good game. I was somewhat dismissive of the Saints, especially after they went for it and lost on the 4th and goal at the 1. But something seemed to happen when the Saints in turn stopped the Colts from running out the clock in the 1st half and they managed to tack on the field goal at the end of the half. That gave the Saints life and then they grabbed the momentum whole hog on the very ballsy on-side kick call.

I actually was hoping that the Colts would have held on to win 24-13 or (once the Saints had pushed it to 24-17) that the Colts could take it to overtime to win it 30-24. Either of those scores would have given me the final score in my boxes and gotten me $40. But such is life. Congrats to New Orleans.

The commercials sucked hard this year. Many were overly sexist and exceptionally crude in their humor. The Doritos commercials were especially bad. There were only three commercials that I enjoyed:

1. Coke: Simpson's - It was simple but full of standard Simpson's visual humor.
2. Doritos: Boyfriend/kid - A kid telling off a potential boyfriend for his mom was actually funny and not offensive, like the rest of the Doritos ads.
3. Monster: Beaver violist - This one was a bit stupid but it had good music overlaying it and it didn't overplay the jokes.

I'd give a passing mention to the Budweiser: Comet and the Dockers: No Pants ads. The Comet only because it had Francois Chau from Lost and the Docker's because it had a catchy tune and that WTF is going on moment.

There is one other ad that seems to be talked about a lot. The Audi: Green Police ad. When I first saw the ad, I was a little turned off because the satire of it was lost on me. Perhaps it was the way Audi was presenting the car as a solution, but there was an element of believability to it and any aspect of a secret police (from whatever cut they may be) stands the hairs on the back of my neck. In hindsight, it's easier to see the satire of the ad and it's humorous intent, but it still gives me a vague, uneasy feeling.

Super Bowl XLIV Predictions

We got the pool assignments for the Super Bowl today. My best squares are Indy4-NO3 and Indy0-NO4. I also have Indy7-NO5 which isn't that bad. So I figure I've got a decent chance to win one of the quarters.

I don't know what my university would have served for Indianapolis at our annual Super Bowl parties. I have a friend who grew up in Indy but I haven't had a chance to ask him what he thinks they would have served. I'm sure Gumbo and Jambalaya would be served for the New Orleans side of the cafeteria.

As far as the actual game goes, I think Indy will win. I think the game will be a back and forth affair and it could come down to who has the ball last. But I expect Indy's experience will give them and edge. New Orleans will probably be a bit overwhelmed and suffering from the gee-whiz factor. Indy (and especially Peyton Manning) is likely to come out and treat this as just another football game.

It should be a good game and I'm hoping the commercials are a little better this year as well. I think the best thing for me is that I honestly don't care who wins. I like Indy and will probably root for them, but I like New Orleans too and would have no problem whatsoever if they win. Hopefully, it's an entertaining game.

Update: Mrs. X sent this link to me. I think GHW Bush tops SB 41 but the rest go to the SB for a final of SB 23, Presidents 21.

FL-19

FL-19 is the northern reaches of the greater-Miami region, straddling Palm Beach and Broward counties. The seat had been held by Robert Wexler, but he resigned recently to take over the presidency of the Center for Middle East Peace & Economic Cooperation.

A special election is scheduled for April 13 in which State Senator Ted Deutch (D) will face off against Ed Lynch (R). FL-19 has never elected a Republican in it's 18-year history. President Obama won the district 65-34 so one would expect Mr. Deutch to win relatively easily.

I'm also assuming that whomever wins will be sworn in and then immediately have to defend the seat in the Nov. 2 elections. Florida's general primary is August 31, so I would imagine that the loser of this special election would have to face the same competition he had for the original nomination (having been proven a loser).

Ideology

This is an interesting compilation of statistics.

The country as a whole polled 40-21, conservative to liberal. Ohio ranks dead center (25th) at 38.9-18.7 (pretty close to the national average).