Wild Football Speculation

 

For amusement, here is an outlandish prediction for the 2026-2027 football playoff seedings:

NFC

#1 LA Rams

#2 Dallas Cowboys vs #7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#3 New Orleans Saints vs #6 Philadelphia Eagles

#4 Minnesota Vikings vs #5 Seattle Seahawks

AFC

#1 Houston Texans

#2 Cincinnati Bengals vs #7 Denver Broncos

#3 Las Vegas Raiders vs #6 Jacksonville Jaguars

#4 NY Jets vs #5 Buffalo Bills

Football Unknowns

 The near death of Damar Hamlin cast a huge pall over the NFL on Monday. Thankfully, the news regarding his recovery continues to get better with doctors steadily reducing the oxygen they are putting in his system and reporting signs that suggest no significant neurological damage. This is obviously a huge relief to his family, friends and teammates and also potentially alleviates the cloud of doubt hanging over the Buffalo Bills, which would allow them to focus on continuing with the season and moving into the playoffs.

But, it is still up in the air as to how that game between Buffalo and Cincinnati will be treated. Probably the easiest and most rational scenario is to simply vacate the game and leave Buffalo and Cincinnati's records based on 16 games rather than 17 games. This would be the functional equivalent of the two teams tying the suspended game. However, other options are on the table. While not definitive, it appears that the Bengals are deferring completely to Buffalo about making up the game. Buffalo's say is limited by the NFL unless the players and management effectively strike to force their preferred outcome, but I don't think that's likely.

A very large amount is going to depend on how the Chiefs-Raiders game goes on Saturday. With the Bills-Bengals game unresolved, Kansas City has moved into the #1 seed. If they win, only a Buffalo win in a make-up game with the Bengals would dethrone them. If the Chiefs lose (a possibility given that it's a divisional match-up), they would fall down to the #3 seed with Buffalo and Cincinnati jumping ahead of them. Of course, Buffalo and Cincinnati would have to win their respective games against the Patriots and Ravens, but I'm taking that as a given.

Honestly, with the continued good news about Damar Hamlin, I expect the Bills to come out on fire with the Week 18 dedicated to him. I think the Bills pour all their emotions into that game and will tear the Patriots to pieces.

Not quite on the same level, but with a vacated game, the Ravens cannot catch the Bengals for the AFC North title. They would have to win and have the Bengals lose a make up game against the Bills. With all that up in the air, I think the Ravens will opt to rest as many of their players as possible, giving the Bengals a much better shot to win. The Bengals will also be playing with a lot of pent up emotion, which might give them an extra boost as well.

But, even if the Chiefs win on Saturday, I don't think the Bills and Bengals will make a point of trying to make up the game. What I could see is the Bills lobbying the NFL to put the AFC Championship at a neutral location rather than in Arrowhead. I don't know if that would work but it would make more sense than trying to squeeze an extra game in.

Rounding out the AFC, the Ravens loss to Pittsburgh allowed the Chargers to move up to the #5 seed and I expect them to stay there, leaving the Ravens at #6. Right now the #7 seed lies with the Patriots and they would get in if they win, but I'm expecting them to lose to Buffalo so that puts Miami back in the driver's seat. Miami closes out against the Jets and could be starting their #3 quarterback. The Jets don't have much of an offense but they do have a good defense and I could see the Jets knocking the Dolphins out. That then puts the Steelers in if they win against Cleveland, a scenario I could easily see.

So with that, I'm honestly expecting a scenario of the Chiefs getting the #1 seed, the Bills playing the Steelers in the 2-7 game, the Bengals playing the Ravens a third time in the 3-6 match and the Jaguars playing the Chargers in the 4-5 game. At this point I'm taking the Jaguars defeat of the Titans in Week 18 as a given.

On the NFC side, things are a little more clear. The Eagles are still in the driver's seat for the #1 seed. Jalen Hurts is coming back and they will play a Giants team that will likely be resting whomever they can in preparation for their Wild Card round game. Of course, the Eagles could still lose which opens the door for Dallas to win the East and potentially the #1 seed if the 49ers lay an egg against Arizona (highly unlikely, but possible). But I think an Eagles win is far more likely.

This would put the 49ers at the #2 seed and the Vikings at the #3 seed. The Buccaneers are locked in at the #4 seed regardless of how the rest of games go in Week 18. An Eagles win would also lock the Cowboys in to the #5 seed and a date with the Tom Bradys. Similar to the Buccaneers, the Giants are locked in to the #6 seed, regardless of how the rest of the games play out.

Which leaves the #7 seed. Seattle currently owns it but their fate is not in their own hands. Seattle only gets in if they win and the Packers lose. The Packers are in if they win, no matter what Seattle does. Meanwhile the Lions get it if they beat the Packers and Seattle loses. Seattle is playing the Rams in Los Angeles and it is just going to depend on which Seattle team shows up. The Rams defense has been playing well for the last few weeks and their offense is not terrible. If they get pressure on Geno Smith, I could easily see the Rams beating the Seahawks. I also think the Packers will win against the Lions just because the Lions needed the Packers to beat themselves the first time around to win while the Packers are on a bit of a hot streak.

So we would then be looking at the Eagles with the #1 seed, the 49ers playing the Packers in the 2-7 game, the Vikings playing the Giants in the 3-6 game and the Bucs playing the Cowboys in the 4-5.

Of course, all of this could go out the window as we saw on Monday so hopefully everyone plays well and stays as healthy as possible in the upcoming games.

2022-23 Week 17 Playoff Picture

 Since everyone else has put in their speculation on the playoffs, I thought I would do the same. 

On the AFC side, the Buffalo Bills are currently in the #1 seed spot with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals right behind them. Jacksonville is holding at #4 while the Baltimore Ravens, the LA Chargers and the Miami Dolphins round out the field.

The Bills and Bengals face each other on Monday night which will have seeding implications. If the Bills win, they will effectively lock in the #1 seed as it is unlikely they will lose to the Patriots in Week 18. If the Bengals win, the Chiefs will move to the #1 seed (assuming they beat Denver) and the Bengals will push up to the #2 seed. If the Ravens also lose to the Steelers the night before, the Bengals will also win the North Division. The Bengals have an outside chance of taking the overall #1 seed but they would need the Chiefs to drop a game to either the Denver Broncos or the Las Vegas Raiders, both of whom are freefalling. But they are divisional opponents, so anything is possible. Of course, the Bengals could also fall to the #5 seed if they lose to the Bills and then lose to the Ravens next week, so wild swings abound.

On the lower ends of things, the Ravens and Chargers have locked playoff appearances and are pretty set in the #5 and 6 seeds (unless the Ravens manage to win the division). The #7 seed is being contested by 4 teams: Miami, New England, the NY Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are a long shot and if Miami wins either in Week 17 or Week 18, they are out. Similarly, if the Jets win against Seattle this week, they are also out. Personally, I think there is too much talent on the Dolphins not to win one of their two games and take the #7 spot, even with their starting QB out with a concussion. If they do collapse, my gut says that the Jets will take their place.

On the NFC side, the Philadelphia Eagles should lock the #1 seed this weekend, locking Dallas in as the #5 seed. The Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers have won their divisions and currently sit in the #2 and 3 seeds. I don't really see the 49ers losing either of their last two games while the Vikings might drop one so a flop in seeding is highly possible. The #4 seed is either going to be the Tampa Bay Bucs or the Carolina Panthers with this week's game between the two likely to decide things. My gut says that the Bucs will find a way, especially with their defense getting back to full strength.

On the lower end, the NY Giants and the Washington Commanders hold the last two spots, with Seattle, Detroit and Green Bay fighting to get in. I think the Giants will hold on, not only for a playoff spot, but the #6 seed as well. The rest is much more up in the air. The Commanders finish against Cleveland and Dallas. Cleveland is a winnable game and I think Dallas will be resting folks, making a Commanders victory easier. If they win out, they are in. I think Seattle will lose to the Jets, putting them in a bad spot. Green Bay has to win their last two games against the Vikings and the Lions, which also seems like a tall order, while Detroit plays Chicago and then finishes at Lambeau.

As I said, I think the Commanders win out, making all this moot, but of the remaining, I think the easiest path is for the Detroit Lions. They looked bad against the Panthers but they should beat the Bears and then its against the Packers for all the marbles. While the Packers have been on a hot streak, I don't see them having actually fixed what was wrong earlier in the season and think they will lose to the Vikings tomorrow. But I'm kinda hoping they do win, just to add that much more drama in Week 18.

So as of right now, the AFC is:

Bills bye

#7 Dolphins at #2 Chiefs

# 6 Chargers at #3 Bengals

#5 Ravens at #4 Jaguars

The NFC is:

Eagles bye

#7 Commanders at #2 Vikings

#6 Giants at #3 49ers

#5 Cowboys at #4 Bucs

Sir Humphrey Appleby on the Proper Function of Government

This is British, but very true about any Western goverment.

Spliting the Early Seasons?

It was announced by the BBC earlier today that The Faceless Ones is the next Doctor Who story that will have its missing episodes animated and is expected to be released in 2020. This makes sense given that The Faceless Ones follows directly on from The Macra Terror so they will be able to use the existing drawings of Ben, Polly and Jamie that were created for that. It also has two of its six episodes existing so animation is only required on four and they will have models to follow for movement and style.

This is actually an amusing coincidence for me as I had been thinking again about the future blu ray releases of Doctor Who and how they might tackle the first six season. As I wrote in the prior post on animated Doctor Who, some of the seasons, especially Seasons Three and Four will require a lot of work to release. With the animation of The Faceless Ones, all that is left of Season Four that is unavailable is The Smugglers, The Highlanders, six of the seven episodes of The Evil of the Daleks and two episodes of The Underwater Menace for a total of sixteen episodes. A significant improvement from where that season was a few years ago.

Another thought that I had been mulling over is whether the BBC might release the first six seasons in halves as was suggested on a Doctor Who video I watched last week. All the First and Second Doctor seasons were made with an eye towards having around 40 episodes per season. Conversely, the most recently released Fourth Doctor season (18) was the largest box set yet and contained 28 regular episodes and the hour long special K-9 & Company, which is roughly the equivalent of 30 episodes. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the first six seasons and see if they might look at chopping them in half for release and where they might do it.

Season 1 (8 stories, 42 episodes)
Cutting the first season in half would make it easier on the BBC as all the episodes that would be in the second half (The Keys of Marinus, The Aztecs, The Sensorites, The Reign of Terror) exist or are animated, allowing for an easy release. It would give them more time to decide on what to do with Marco Polo and have it paired with the staples of An Uneartly Child, The Daleks, The Edge of Destruction as a juicy plum to be released at a later time.

Season 2 (9 stories, 39 episodes)
Since Season 2 has Planet of Giants and The Rescue in the first half, it makes more sense to have the first half include The Web Planet for a total of five stories. All of these stories exist so release would be fairly easy. The second half would require the animation of two episodes of The Crusade but otherwise would be in good shape for release as well.

Season 3 (10 stories, 45 episodes)
Season 3 will probably be one of the last ones released, split or no. If it were split, it would probably run Galaxy 4, Mission to the Unknown, The Mythmakers, The Daleks’ Master Plan in the first half (requiring fifteen animated episodes) and The Massacre, The Ark, The Celestial Toymaker, The Gunfighters, The Savages, The War Machines in the second half (requiring eleven animated episodes in the second). Assuming the BBC is up for this, they will need all the time they can get to accomplish this work.

Season 4 (9 stories, 43 episodes)
Season 4 has made significant progress as was noted above. Splitting the season would give The Smugglers, The Tenth Planet, The Power of the Daleks, The Highlanders, The Underwater Menace to the first half (requiring ten animated episodes) and The Moonbase, The Macra Terror, The Faceless Ones, The Evil of the Daleks to the second half (requiring six animated episodes). That would make the second half more likely to be released first, especially as the success of Power would naturally lead into Evil.

Season 5 (7 stories, 40 episodes)
Season 5 has an unfortunate imbalance given that most of the stories are six episodes long. I think it makes a little more sense to put The Enemy of the World in the first half with The Tomb of the Cybermen, The Abominable Snowmen, The Ice Warriors, which would require the animation of five of the six episodes of The Abominable Snowmen. That would leave the second half to The Web of Fear, Fury from the Deep, The Wheel in Space, requiring animation of ten episodes.

Season 6 (7 stories, 44 episodes)
Season 6 is the only one that splits evenly in terms of episodes. The first half would be The Dominators, The Mind Robber, The Invasion, The Kroton which all exist or are already animated. The second half would be The Seeds of Death, The Space Pirates, The War Games which would require animation of five of the six episodes of The Space Pirates. Like the first half of Season One, I could see this one being held back as a plum which would also give them more time to work on The Space Pirates as needed.

This is obviously speculation as we have no idea if the early seasons will be split or if there is a plan by the BBC to animate everything for the season box sets. But if I were in charge, I could see things being parceled out this way and allowing more time for a more complete experience.

Obi Wan Vs. Vader Redone

Someone redid the choreography of the Obi Wan and Vader fight from Episode 4. It is...

Impressive. Most impressive.

Doctor Who Animating Is Required

With the release of two seasons of classic Doctor Who on blu ray last year, my thoughts turned to the first six seasons and what would be required if they want to include those on a blu ray release. For those of you who don't know, the first six seasons of Doctor Who (1963-1969) are all missing episodes from various stories. Some of those missing episodes have been animated, while others are only available in audio recordings with either telesnaps or production still photographs to give a visual. I figured I would go over what is required for each season and see how possible it is.

Season 1
An Unearthly Child - exists
The Daleks - exists
The Edge of Destruction - exists
Marco Polo - does not exist
The Keys of Marinus - exists
The Aztecs - exists
The Sensorites - exits
The Reign of Terror - four episodes exist, two episodes animated

Season One shouldn't pose a significant problem except for Marco Polo. I think the team that looks for lost episodes of BBC television believes that copies of at least some of the episodes exist for this story which is why there's been a bit of a hesitation about doing any more than a telesnap recon. At seven episodes, this would require a bit of animation but it is doable. At the very least, options exist for how to approach this missing story.

Season Two
Planet of Giants - exists
The Dalek Invasion of Earth - exists
The Rescue - exists
The Romans - exists
The Web Planet - exists
The Crusade - two episodes (2 and 4) missing
The Space Museum - exists
The Chase - exists
The Time Meddler - exists

When it comes time for the First Doctor to be released on blu ray, I could see them starting with Season Two. Everything exists except two episodes of The Crusade and like The Reign of Terror, I think those episodes could be animated without significant problems.

Season Three
Galaxy 4 - three episodes (1,2,4) missing
Mission to the Unknown - animated
The Mythmakers - does not exist
The Daleks' Master Plan - only three of twelve episodes exist (2,5,10)
The Massacre of St. Bartholomew's Eve - does not exist
The Ark - exists
The Celestial Toymaker - three episodes (1,2,3) missing
The Gunfighters - exists
The Savages - does not exist
The War Machines - exists

Season Three is where the real problems come in. Of the total 45 episodes in this season, 28 do not exist and only 1 has been animated. Even that is somewhat problematic as that animation was commissioned by Ian Levine and he is tempermental when it comes to playing with the BBC and their potential to make a profit off his work. I think this season has the potential to not be released at all with only the two individual stories that exist in their entirety being released on blu ray. I would hope that they might try something though as several of these missing stories are very good.

Season Four
The Smugglers - does not exist
The Tenth Planet - three episodes exist, one episode animated
The Power of the Daleks - animated
The Highlanders - does not exist
The Underwater Menace - two episodes (1,4) missing
The Moonbase - two episodes exist, two episodes animated
The Macra Terror - animated
The Faceless Ones - four episodes (2,4,5,6) missing
The Evil of the Daleks - all but one episode (2) of seven does not exist

Season Four is what actually got me thinking about what would be required for a blu ray release of these six seasons. The Power of the Daleks was animated last year and The Macra Terror is slated for a release this year. With Jamie, the Doctor and the Daleks all animated, I'm inclined to think the animation team may next tackle The Evil of the Daleks. If they do so, that would only leave 14 episodes with no visual and 6 of those would have existing episodes to base the animation off of (similar to Shada). If left to near the end of the blu ray season run, I could see both The Smugglers and The Highlanders created as purely animated stories, just to round out the season.

Season Five
Tomb of the Cybermen - exists
The Abominable Snowmen - all but one episode (2) of six does not exist
The Ice Warriors - four episodes exist, two animated
The Enemy of the World - exists
The Web of Fear - five episodes exist, one episode (3) missing
Fury From the Deep - does not exist
The Wheel in Space - two episodes exist (3,6), four episodes missing

With the discovery of Enemy and Web several years ago, the worst of the heavy lifting for this season has been done. Three stories are nearly missing but there are some episodes of those stories that exist. Even the one that doesn't exist (Fury From the Deep) has so many sensor clips and production stills that animating it would be less of a chore than other stories. The missing episode of The Web of Fear is known to exist as it was stolen shortly after discovery and presumably sold to a collector. That will presumably cause questioning as whether to animate the missing episode or hope for its recovery but at least there is a good start to this season.

Season Six
The Dominators - exists
The Mind Robber - exists
The Invasion - six episodes exist, two episodes (1,4) animated
The Krotons - exists
The Seeds of Death - exists
The Space Pirates - one episode (2) exists, five episodes missing
The War Games - exists

Season Six will probably the first Second Doctor series to be released as everything is in place except The Space Pirates. Given conventional fan wisdom, I can't see any significant push to get those five episodes animated but some treatment may be given to it. If push came to shove, I could see it released as an audio with linking narration and a few pictures mixed in, much like it is now. I actually didn't mind this story and wouldn't mind seeing an animation, but I know I'm in the minority on that one. Still, with only The Space Pirates holding it back and with the great popularity of The War Games to bank on, the BBC can be expected to make a push to get this season out at some point.

So overall, things are not as dire as they might seem. Three of the seasons are in good shape and could be released with just a small amount of extra effort on the BBC's part. Season Four is a work in progress and could be ready for a blu ray release at the end of the run of the existing seasons (presumably 6-9 years from now). That just leaves Seasons Three and Five that will require a lot of work. Season Five is in better shape than might be expected and I remain hopeful that it will be tackled once most of the work on Season Four is finished. That just leaves Season Three and time will tell if it is fully tackled. I could see an effort to animate The Daleks' Master Plan with a wide blu ray release of just that, but the rest will likely be put on the back burner at best. Hopefully we'll get lucky and more episodes will be found, easing the load on the animation and recovery teams.

Happy Hanukah

Happy Hanukah to all my Jewish friends. In the spirit of Queen:

Oscar Reflection

Last night, The Shape of Water won Best Picture. This is a movie about a mute woman who has an attraction to a hybrid fish man (think benign Creature from the Black Lagoon.) Mrs. X and I both have no desire to seek this movie out and watch it as it just doesn't look interesting to us. Jimmy Kimmel actually made a joke about how Hollywood doesn't make Oscar nominated movies to make money but to annoy the political establishment. That's actually not much of a joke when you look at the recent history of the Oscars.

I decided to go back through the recent history and see how many of the winners and nominees that I have seen and I think it's rather telling.

2017 - 0/9. This will change as I am mildly interested in seeing both Get Out and Dunkirk. I think Mrs. X would like to se Lady Bird and I'm not opposed to that in general. To be somewhat fair, some of this lack of seeing movies has to do with being busy (and poor) with a young family rather than disinterest.

2016 - 1/9 - Hidden Figures. I liked Hidden Figures, though it was somewhat predictable. Of the other nominees this year, I think Hacksaw Ridge was the only one that any appeal to me but not enough to make any serious effort.

2015 - 1/8 - The Martian. Many more folks would have added Mad Max: Fury Road here but I saw enough in trailers and cut away scenes that it just felt like a retread of The Road Warrior. I appreciate the logistics it went through but it just doesn't appeal to me. I should point out that only I saw The Martian. She hadn't read the book yet (thought it middling) so I watched it by myself. But everything else, no interest.

2014 - 0/8. This was a real case of ambivalence for me. Nothing appealed then and nothing appeals now.

2013 - 2/9 - American Hustle, Gravity. I think American Hustle was one of the movies that really pushed me off Oscar hype. It didn't win Best Picture but there was much hype around it. I watched it and found it boring. You want a good con movie? Watch The Sting. Gravity was another of those movies that while visually interesting was not worth the hype surrounding it. There is a small part of me that thinks I should watch 12 Years a Slave from a historic standpoint, but I never got a sense of importance with putting up with something that bleak like I did with Schindler's List so I don't bother.

2012 - 4/9 - Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln. This marks the first winner that I've actually seen. It was ok, though not particularly outstanding. Its win was clearly more a product of the snub to Ben Afleck in the directing category. Lincoln was well acted but heavy handed and not something I'm interested in seeing again. Life of Pi was odd at the time but it has grown a bit in my memory and I think I would actually enjoy watching it a second time. Les Mis was enjoyed by both of us, though I like the actual Broadway show better. Still it was good enough to pick up on DVD and watch a couple more times. Everything else, not really my cup of tea but nearly half, including the winner, isn't bad.

2011 - 2/9 - The Help, Moneyball. Again, two movies that weren't bad and enjoyable to watch, though neither one was enjoyable enough to watch it a second time. Everything else just didn't register as being worth my time.

2010 - 4/10 - Inception, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit. It takes us to 2010 for me to find movies that really enjoyed. Toy Story 3 is very good and have watched it several times, though I think I like Toy Story 2 a bit better. I like True Grit a great deal, both for it's visual style and acting. Every since Unforgiven, I've been very fond of the more realistic Western and True Grit is a well done version of that. Even Inception I found entertaining on a conceptual level, though its been overplayed a bit. The Social Network is more like prior movies on this list where I saw it once, thought it ok and let it slide off my brain. Nothing great there. Everything else, meh.

2009 - 1/10 - Up. Avatar never appealed to me as I could see the bones of that story from a mile away. I was mildly interested in District 9 but that also faded as time went on. Up on the other hand, I've seen numerous times and I can't think of any movie that can hold a candle to the emotional storytelling of the first 10 minutes of that movie. The rest is a little more bland, though with some properly funny moments, but still head and shoulders above anything else that was nominated that year.

2008 - 1/5 - Slumdog Millionaire. Back to era of five nominees. I barely remember the other four nominees but I thought Slumdog Millionaire was ok. Nothing great, but it did hold my attention for its run and that's not bad.

2007 - 1/5 - Juno. I liked Juno. It had that cynical, yet hopeful edge to it that appealed. I've also seen enough evidence to suggest that I would probably like both No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood so I might get around to seeing them someday. So though it's only 1 of 5 here, it could be a 3 of 5 and that's not too bad.

2006 - 2/5 - Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen. Little Miss Sunshine was like Juno in that it was a quirky, indie comedy that had broad appeal. The Queen was also decent and after watching two seasons of The Crown, I'd like to go back and watch it again. I'm not much on either dirty cop movies or Scorsese so The Departed holds little interest for me.

2005 - 0/5. Gay cowboys, Spielberg trying too hard and a big head scratcher. Pass.

2004 - 1/5 - The Aviator. I saw this one on my parent's recommendation. Didn't like it as it was slow and bloated. Probably should see Million Dollar Baby but just interested in what I know will be a real downer of a movie.

2003 - 4/5 - Return of the King, Lost in Translation, Master and Commander, Mystic River. Return of the King is more of an honoring of the whole trilogy. From an individual standpoint, The Two Towers is actually the best of the three. But I like it and have watched it several times. The other three are one and done's again. I personally think Lost in Translation is way overhyped and far to artsy for my taste. The other two were at least interesting in their own way, though I have no desire to return to either of them.

So of the last fifteen years, I have seen 23 of 111 nominees (20.7%) and 3 of the 15 winners (20%). Not great percentages.

For the overall record, of the 90 best picture winners, I have seen 37 (41.1%) with most of the misses coming in the pre-1960 era.

Olympic Team Skate Scoring Redux, Part 3

Shocking no one who had seen the earlier competitions, Canada won the gold medal in the team skate competition. Russia won the silver and the USA had a very good last night to close out the bronze. Unfortunately, the same problems of last time plagued the night tonight.

Going in with a six-point lead, Canada was almost impossible to catch. A three-point lead was not insurmountable for the US to get past Russia, but it was pretty tall. The only real drama was with the US and Italy and whether the Italians could eclipse the Americans.

Because of a scoring system that doesn't penalize falls enough, Canada and Russia finished 1-2 while the US finished 3rd. This effectively put the gold medal away for Canada as they would have had to have finished in dead last in both the following competitions and have the Russians finish in first for them to catch them. Similarly, the Americans would have needed to have Russia finish dead last in at least one event for them to have a chance at getting the silver. So once again, the only drama was for the bronze and even then, a two-point lead is pretty significant when you can typically only make up one or two points at best in a round.

In the alternate scoring system, the US would have retaken the third place position from Italy, though at only a one-point differential, it would have been very close. Canada, sitting with a ten-point lead on Russia, would have been in good position to absorb a bad finish by one of their performers, but not with an insurmountable lead. Similarly, a strong performance by the US could have allowed them to overtake Russia.

With the ladies results, the competition effectively ended. A five-point lead is impossible to overcome in the current scoring system so going into the dance, Canada had secured the gold with a five-point lead over Russia. Similarly, Russia had secured the silver with a five-point lead over the US. Only the bronze was in mathematical doubt as the US had only a four-point lead over Italy but that would have required the Italians to finish in first and the Americans in last in the dance and that would have only been for co-bronze. So the dance became an exhibition for teams to work out kinks and make statements before going into their individual competitions.

In the alternate scoring system, Canada would have had a six-point lead on Russia, meaning that it was possible for the Russians to catch the Canadians if they had a bad night. Canada would have been assured at least the silver as the gap over the Americans was too big to make up, but there was a chance for drama in gold. It would have been unlikely for the US to catch the Russians for the silver, but not mathematically impossible for a co-silver should the Russians have faltered badly. It was also still possible for the Italians to vault the Americans for bronze if they had a bad night. So while the placements were still similar, there is meaning in the ice dancing round in this system as opposed to the other where everything was essentially settled.

What little drama there was with the dance competition died in the first routine when the Japanese male dancer slipped and fell. This essentially guaranteed that Japan would finish last in the category and that whisper of hope the Italians had was gone. Everything progressed as expected and the medals were awarded in exactly what was expected.

The same results would have come about in the alternate scoring system, although the American's solid second place routine would have been much more of a door slam on the Italians. Some additional tweaks might be needed but for the second time, I think this alternate scoring system would go a long way towards giving a more dramatic edge to the competition. In both 2014 and 2018, the appropriate teams won their various medals so the lesson is more about consistency and having a well rounded team. But if you're going to have a competition like this, I think a greater risk/reward system needs to be put into place so that the audience doesn't get bored with competitions that just don't matter.

One last side note, I did a quick check to see what the results would have been if falls were penalized more. Ultimately, the answer is none. I think the Canadian man's score was high enough (he actually landed one of his quad jumps before falling) that the American wouldn't have caught him anyway, but even if the American somehow finished first, the Russians still would have finished one-point ahead of the US in the standings. But that would have been a heck of a lot more drama. Interestingly, in the alternate scoring system, the Americans and Russians would have tied for the silver if the American man had finished first and the Russian third. I doubt the Olympics would have liked that but imagine the reaction from all the teams had that happened.

Drama is available to be had but only if a greater punishment is made available to counterbalance these great rewards.

Olympic Team Skate Scoring Redux, Part 2

We are now down to the qualifying five: Canada, Russia, USA, Japan and Italy. Canada entered with a clean edge and a four point lead over Russia (35-31) but Italy and Japan were within striking distance at 26 points apiece. The pairs long program was the only qualified event that also took place that day as the other three events will take place later today.

The standings after the pairs are:

Already we have our first discrepancy as Italy would be in third place in the alternate scoring system rather than still in fourth. But countering that, Canada's lead over Russia is smaller in the regular system than in the alternate system. But, with an ability to swing the pendulum in wider arcs, that larger gap may not be as big a deal as it would be in the regular system.

We shall just have to see what tonight brings.

Olympic Team Skate Scoring Redux, Part 1

Last night, the figure skating team competition kicked off at the Olympics. Four years ago I wrote a post about changing the scoring system in the second half of the competition to make it more interesting.

To recap, the scoring now is that ten teams compete in Men's, Pairs, Women's and Ice Dancing short program and the scores in each competition producing a ranking which gives them points (10 for first, 9 for second, etc.). At the end of the short program, the bottom five teams are eliminated and the remaining five do the long programs. I have no beef with this part. However, the scoring in the long program is where things fall apart.

In the long program, the five teams complete, receive scores and then get a point value based on their finish. The problem is that they get 10 thru 6 points for the finish and it's added to their existing total from the first half. This means that teams in front have little to fear from teams at the bottom as they usually can't make up ground enough. My wife and I's proposed solution was to change the points awarded from 10 thru 6 to an even award (10, 8, 6, 4, 2) based on place. This would make a mistake in the long competition much more devastating and could pull a team with a high score back to the pack or pull a team in last place up to the front.

To test this, I'm going to keep track of the scoring as done now and compare them to what they would be if the scoring was done in the alternate way.

For the first phase, it would be kept as is so the scores will show no deviation at the moment:

The FISA Memo Summary

Over the past couple of weeks, there has been talk about a 4-page memo written by several Republican members of the House potentially being released to the public. There was a vote to release this memo by the House Intelligence Committee yesterday giving President Trump five days to review the memo and opt for its release or decline and refer it to the full House. If he declines, the full House will vote whether or not to release it.

With all the buzz going on, I did a little research to try and figure out what this memo is about and what all the fuss was about.

Back in the summer of 2016, the DNC and the Clinton campaign hired a research firm called Fusion GPS to put together information on Mr. Trump. This is fairly normal, especially with someone who does not have a political record like Trump. Fusion GPS then hired a former British Intelligence officer named Christopher Steele to compile the information, sort of like hiring a private detective. Again, nothing out of the ordinary there. Mr. Steele compiles this dossier and gives it to Fusion GPS who in turn give it to the DNC.

Where things start to get murky is that Fusion GPS had supposedly also been hired by the Russian government to lobby and oppose sanctions that were being leveled or considered against their government. Shortly after this dossier was delivered to the DNC, an application was made by people in the FBI and the DOJ to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISA) for a wiretap of Trump Tower and the Trump campaign to identify whether or not Carter Page (a Trump advisor at the time) had illegal connections to the Russian government.

There are three points of interest in this. First, the dossier compiled by Fusion GPS may have been used as the source documentation for the wiretap application. If that is true, that is collusion between the DNC and the Federal government which is illegal. There is also the second accusation that the wiretaps may have extended beyond their narrowed target both in terms of the people involved and the timing allowed, meaning that the taps may have been left in after the provision by the warrant expired. Third, information collected that had nothing to do with Mr. Page or the investigation into him may have been collected and passed back to the DNC to further use against Trump. That is definitely illegal if true.

Two points. First, it is important to note that this memo is a summary of evidence collected, not the evidence itself so its interpretation can be called into question. Second, the memo was written by several Republican members of the House so again, objectivity is going to be an issue with this document.

Nevertheless, it has already had one effect in that the deputy director of the FBI, Andrew McCabe has cashed in his vacation to take a leave of absence, effective immediately, and will officially retire in March, allowing him to collect his fully vested pension. At this time it is unknown whether any other specific parties are named in the memo.

Fallout from the release of this memo is likely to amplify the partisan divide as Democrats will deny and decry it as a paranoid fever dream while Republicans will use it to accuse the Obama administration of engaging in Nixon-like tactics to ensure Clinton's victory.

I have no doubt that Mr. Trump will give the green light to the memo's release; the question is just a matter of timing. I suspect that if the State of the Union speech goes well, the memo release will be pushed back to Friday so that he can bask in the glow of validation. If it goes poorly, expect it to be released Wednesday to change the subject.

Villain Pub - 12 Days of Christmas

Very funny:

Nixon does White Rabbit

He's meeting you halfway you stupid hippies!

GA-6 Special

Today is election day for the sixth district of Georgia. The previous congressman, Tom Price, resigned to become the HHS Secretary.

Rather than have primaries, the election is open with any and all folks allowed to participate. If one candidate receives 50% of the vote, they win outright. Otherwise the top two vote getters will face off on June 20. As of right now there are five Democrats, eleven Republicans and two independents declared and on the ballot.

However, national Democrats have all consolidated behind one candidate, Jon Ossoff. With all the other Democrats essentially folding, he is essentially guaranteed first place in the election. What national Democrats are really hoping for is that they will gin up turnout so much that he will manage to get 50% of the vote and kill the whole thing right then and there. That is unlikely but possible.

On the Republican side, there hasn't been a consolidation but most of the attention seems to be focusing on two candidates, Bob Gray and Karen Handel. They are your likely frontrunners but since the Republican field is so split, you're looking at the likelihood that the winner is going to be the one that cracks 15% of the vote.

Do Democrats have a chance in this race? Yes, but it's going to take a measure of luck, major Democratic turnout and a good dose of non-Democratic voter apathy. The best scenario for them is to pull in a huge volume of Democrats and sway the non-Republican voters, thus pulling Ossoff across the 50%+1 threshold. However, as this is R +8 district, that hill seems like it's just a bit too steep.

After that, Ossoff will face off against like Gray or Handel and it will turn into a more conventional race. It will likely become even more of a referendum on the policies of Mr. Trump than it is now with Ossoff attacking the Republican likely to have to defend them. The danger for the Democrats, I think, is even if feeling against Mr. Trump is running high (not a guarantee) they may not be able to sustain the high volume of energy required to swing this race in a mono-y-mono situation. Democrats are going balls to the wall to try and take this thing now. If they fall short, the burnout potential is high, especially if people are allowed to lapse back into normal voting patterns. I think it highly unlikely that the Republican will win by eight points, but reflex muscle alone could be enough to win by two or three unless there is sustained outrage.

So, the big drama for tonight is who will win out among the Republicans and whether Ossoff gets over 50%. If he does not, expect a certain degree of fizzle barring something huge that galvanizes the Democrats for another sustained push.

*UPDATE*

As expected, Ossoff failed to log more than 50%. He did get a huge sure at the beginning of the night as the early vote, especially from Atlanta came in. But his numbers went in steady decline for the rest of the night as the day-of voting and more conservative areas rolled in. There was a bit of extra drama as the count got stuck at 54% of precincts reporting for a long time. This apparently was due to a data glitch at one of the counting stations in Fulton County. Once fixed, the count surged instantly to 84% of precincts counted and Ossoff dropped below the 50% line. It appears that he is going to finish right around 48%.

On the other side of the rice, Karen Handel smoked her competitors, finishing with nearly 20% of the vote. Her closest competitor, Bob Gray, finished with just under 11% of the vote. Given the make-up of the district, Handel will be the prohibitive favorite. This is probably even more true given that Handel favored Evan McMullen in the Presidential race so the novelty of making this an anti-Trump campaign will be diminished somewhat. That's also means that much of the out-of-state money that has come in to support Ossoff will start to dry up.

The final vote is June 20 but don't expect it to get the kind of attention that the first round did. A head-to-head race favors the Republican and without the potential for a Trump rebuke, much of the steam driving the Democratic side will likely dissipate.

Clam Chowder Vs. Grits

Super Bowl LI will kick off around 6:30 between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. New England features Tom Brady going for his fifth ring and a bit of personal redemption against Roger Goodell, who tried to have Brady suspended for the whole season. On the other side, you have the Falcons in the Super Bowl for only the second time and looking for validation as they were somewhat dismissed for the majority of the season.

First, offense. I would give the Falcons the slight edge on offense because they have a number of good receivers and an incredibly pounding running game. But the Patriots are no slouches when it comes to comes to offense either. They may not have quite the names or the flare that the Falcons do, but they are a good solid offense and Tom Brady usually doesn't make mistakes with the ball. All things being equal though, the Patriots need to jump into the lead and keep it. If the Falcons have any kind of a lead going into the 4th quarter, they are going to pound the Pats defense with the double running game and that will bleed clock and almost certainly end in points of some kind.

Second defense. The Patriots have the advantage here. They are not a flashy defense but they are somewhat effective. What helps them most is that the Patriot offense stays on the field a lot. It's when Brady and Co. get caught in a few three-and-outs that the cracks that they do have get exposed. Their risk of exposure here is in how close the game gets. If the Pats jump out to a big lead and the Falcons play catch up, that takes away a major part of the Atlanta drain game and the Patriot defense will probably hold up. If the Falcons run the ball, they will eventually get tired and begin to get gashed to hell.

The Falcon's defense is going to have to rely on a bend and not break strategy I think. They're not good enough to play straight and I don't think they're going to get direct pressure on Tom Brady. They'll get to him on occasion, but he's going to be able to get the ball out most of the time. What I think they need is to focus on keeping the Patriots out of the end zone, forcing them to settle for field goals and maybe trying to squeeze something in and getting a lucky pick. They are also going to have to rely on their own offense to score a number of points (because they are going to give up some) and to bleed the clock so that they are not completely dead on their feet if Brady needs to make a long drive at the end. I favor the Patriots defense, but neither one is the type of scary defense that is going to rank with the '85 Bears or '00 Ravens.

Special teams are a bit of a wash as I think the Falcons have more talent there but the Patriots are more likely to be smarter there. There's always a chance for a Special teams play breaking through, but I wouldn't bet on it this time.

On the whole, I think this is going to be a story of two offenses slugging it out and that leads to a higher scoring game. Atlanta has a better offense but the Patriots are more experienced. I favor experience. Every Patriots Super Bowl has been close and I don't see any reason why this one would deviate from that. It may not come down to a game winning drive at the end, but I think there is a good chance that it will come down to who has the ball last and in that case, I trust Tom Brady more than I do Matt Ryan.

Pick: New England Patriots

Side note, my square in the office Super Bowl pool is NE - 1, Atl - 4. So here's hoping for lots of TDs and few field goals.

King of America Possibilities

One of the fun things about alternative history is going down little rabbit holes. A few years ago, there was an article that mentioned that at a point of crisis, there was a discussion about making George Washington king of America. Obviously he turned it down but a historian played the what if game and traced the likely regal descendant to a regular Joe now living in San Antonio.

What made this exercise even more fun was the fact that George Washington had no natural issue so the line was traced from the descent of his older brother. However, no attempt (that I know of) was made to trace the line of the other primary alternative. Martha Washington had a son by her previous marriage and following his death, George Washington adopted his son (Martha's grandson) and made him his heir: George Washington Parke Custis. So, let us play the what if game. What if instead of following the formal British model, a more Roman model was adopted where the monarch could designate his heir, even if they were not formal blood relations?

George Washington was sworn in as president in 1789. Assuming he was crowned as George I, he would have reigned until his death in 1799. He leaves control to his adopted son George Custis, who is crowned as George II.

George Custis lived until 1857 and had four children but only one survived to maturity: Mary. In 1831, Mary married Robert E. Lee, which would have given our theoretical George II license to royally adopt him and have him crowned as King Robert I upon George II's death.

Robert and Mary Lee had seven children and again we are left playing the what if game as their oldest and heir, George Washington Custis Lee, never married and never had issue. Robert E. Lee died in 1870 and presumably his son would have succeeded him, being crowned as George III. Assuming history played out as it did (which it actually would not have) George III would have died in 1913 and the crown would have then passed to the heirs of his younger brother William Lee, who died in 1891.

The crown would have passed on to his oldest son, Robert E. Lee III, who would have held it until 1922 when he died. I found no record of children from his marriage, so the crown would have then passed to his younger brother, George Lee, who would have carried it until his own death in 1948.

George Lee had two children, the oldest being Robert E. Lee IV, who would have taken over in 1948. Mr. Lee was still alive as of 2010, the last reference I found of him at age 85. His eldest son would then take over for him upon his death.

So in summary, the line of kings would have progressed as follows:

George I (1789-1799)
George II (1799-1857)
Robert I (1857-1870)
George III (1870-1913)
Robert II (1913-1922)
George IV (1922-1948)
Robert III (1948-

NFL Conference Championships 2017

I went 3 for 4 in the Divisional round and the Green Bay Packers pulled out everything they had to overcome the Cowboys. I am quite sure that if that game had gone to overtime, the Cowboys would have won but they pulled it out on some absolutely clutch plays at the end. Now we go on to the championships, which also means that it's about time for me to get sick as I have a nasty habit of getting felled by a nasty bug around this time of year.

Sunday, January 22, 3:00 - #4 Green Bay Packers at #2 Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta pulled out the stops and finally played defense for a bit. Seattle tried once again to rely on great plays and they did manage to get some but just not enough. Atlanta was never really challenged and their power in the running game and the skill of their receivers took it to Seattle and never really let up. Their offense is going to score points, especially against the depleted Green Bay defense, although it did come through at various points for them against Dallas.

The big question is how much is left in the tank for the Packers after that huge expenditure against Dallas. There is no question that this should be a barnburner with neither side being a particularly strong defense. The numbers say that the Packers have still lost too many weapons, although they keep filling in the gaps. What's more they didn't lose anyone of significance during the Dallas game so that's a plus for them. Atlanta beat Green Bay earlier in the season on a last minute drive by the Falcons so I see no reason why this won't come down to who has the ball last once more. My head says to go with the Falcons but Green Bay keeps surprising me. I'm going to go with the hot team and the potentially better Super Bowl match up.

Pick: Green Bay

Sunday, January 22, 6:45 - #3 Pittsburgh Steelers at #1 New England Patriots - My son posed this match up of two teams that I don't care for and I told him that I will take any team over the Steelers as tired as I am of the Patriots. Of course, that is feeling rather than an actual assessment of the teams. But, I'm not seeing much from either game that is deviating from this thought. Houston's defense gave Tom Brady some fits, but their offense was just terrible and never really poised for much of a threat unless their defense gave them great field position. Contrast this with the Steelers who drove on the Chiefs all night but couldn't put it away, settling for six field goals and nearly letting the Chiefs back into it, despite Kansas having almost no passing game at all.

Pittsburgh will hang in. Their defense is not as good as Houston's but it is tough and they will get to Tom Brady now and again. Likewise, I think the Steelers coach is going to lay into his team enough and the New England defense is not good enough that they will score a touchdown or two. But unless the Steelers dip into the dirty bag (a tactic not unknown to them) and rip one of Tom Brady's legs off, I see the Patriots as too big and too driven a team for the patchwork Steelers to take down. It might be close going into the fourth quarter, but I don't see Pittsburgh making it back to the big show this year.

Pick: New England

If this holds, we'll get a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI with the shoe potentially being on the other foot this time around. But we'll see.

NFL Divisional Round 2017

I went 2-2 in the first round, although had I known that Oakland was going to be playing a third string QB, I would have probably opted for Houston, even though their offense is not great. Green Bay, on the other hand, just plain whooped the Giants much to my surprise.

So we move on to the Divisional Round where the #1 and #2 seeds have had a week off to prepare.

Saturday, January 14, 4:30 - #3 Seattle at #2 Atlanta - Seattle did well in their first game, dispatching the Lions without much fuss. Seattle and Atlanta are somewhat similar teams in the fact that they are so unpredictable. Seattle usually has a good defense and it's just a question of whether their offense will be able to do anything. Atlanta meanwhile has a pretty good offense and a middling at best defense. So they need to keep pace with their opponents to stay in. On the few times that they do make some stands on defense, they win handily.

I think Seattle has a chance, but they are such a different team away from home. Playing in a dome will help and I think their defense will keep the Falcons on the wrong foot, perhaps even giving them a turnover or two. I even think the lack of good defense by Atlanta will allow Seattle to score aplenty. But you can't live on impossible catches and I think Atlanta has too many weapons in the long term. I'm guessing a closer game than expected, but I'd still favor the home team.

Pick: Atlanta

Saturday, January 14, 8:15 - #4 Houston at #1 New England - Houston actually played New England earlier in the season and got destroyed. I'd like to think that Houston has a bit more pride than that and will hang better this time around, but I don't see much hope for them. Houston's offense is middling and while New England does not have a great defense, it will stymie the Texans. Houston does have the #1 offense, but unlike previous years, New England's offense is not suffering from a bunch of injuries. Brady will have a bevy of weapons to use and while they may have to settle for field goals a few times, I don't see them making the critical mistakes that Houston desperately needs to stay in this. I also see Tom Brady on a mission to personally spit in Roger Goodell's face as he hands him the Lombardi Trophy and this is the first step in that quest.

Pick: New England

Sunday, January 15, 4:30 - #4 Green Bay at #1 Dallas - I would love to see Green Bay beat Dallas. They've been on the edge of elimination for nearly two months now and have more walking wounded than any team in the playoffs while Dallas is at nearly 100% and been more or less handed a spot in the Super Bowl since October. But there is a reason for that. Dallas is good. Their QB and RB get most of the ink, but the Dallas offensive line is second to none in the NFL and that is huge. Their defense isn't bad either, although it's not the killer that one would expect. I expect Green Bay to put up a fight, but I think fatigue and injuries are just going to doom the Packers in the end.

Pick: Dallas

Sunday, January 15, 8:00 - #3 Pittsburgh at #2 Kansas City - Again, I want the other team to win so bad that I would love to pick against Pittsburgh just out of spite. But the Steelers did to Miami exactly what I expected and Kansas City is built in many of the same ways. They have a better defense than Miami and they will have a nice home field advantage in Arrowhead, but the Chiefs are heavily dependent on a strong running game and the Steelers do a pretty good job of containing it. The Chiefs have the weapons to beat the Steelers through the air, but I'm skeptical of them being able to use them enough. I'd bet on a grind fest here and grinds work well for teams used to playing bloodied.

Pick: Pittsburgh

NFL Wild Card Round - 2017

We now begin the inevitable slog towards the Super Bowl. Around Week Six or Seven I was girding myself up for the strong possibility of a New England vs. Dallas match up. That is still the most likely outcome but I'm seeing a potential glimmer of Brady vs. Eli III. Anything other than these two would be a real curve ball for me. But before we can get there, let's play with this weekend's match ups.

Saturday, January 7, 4:30 - #5 Oakland Raiders at #4 Houston Texans - This will make the second year in a row where the AFC South winner is a just happy to be here contender. Obviously the Texans won't admit that, but they are not a particularly good team and I can't see them giving Oakland too hard a time. That's actually a shame as Oakland, while good, is a young and inexperienced team. They fell apart when they had a chance to take the division and a first round bye. Now they'll get a playoff win under their belt which will make them just that much tougher in the Divisional round.

Pick: Oakland

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 - #6 Detroit Lions at #3 Seattle Seahawks - I think the Lions are a decent team but they've been skirting the edge all year and they should consider themselves fortunate that they are still in the playoffs as a win by Washington would have given them the #6 seed. Still, Seattle has also been up and down this year. One week they look good enough to win the Super Bowl, the next they are getting thrashed by a sub-500 team. But, Seattle is one of the worst places to play as a visiting team and until I see the Seahawks fall apart, I'm not going to pick against them at home.

Pick: Seattle

Sunday, January 8, 1:00 - #6 Miami Dolphins at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers - For personal reasons, I want to pick Miami in the worst way. They are actually a pretty good team and won some rather key games late in the season. They have a good run game and a halfway decent defense. I would also point out that Pittsburgh is not quite as good as they usually are. Injuries have played a part, but there has been something missing as well. They have won but they seem like they are missing something that usually gives them their usual level of swagger. But, they are still the Steelers and I don't have so much faith in the Dolphins to think that they can march into Pittsburgh and run them over. I'm thinking the Fish will give them a good game, but I still have to hold my nose and pick the yellow and black.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Sunday, January 8, 4:30 - #5 New York Giants at #4 Green Bay Packers - Again, I'd like to believe that the Packers could draw strength from the earth of Green Bay and thwart the Eli Mannings who are probably one of the hottest teams at the moment. But if there is one team that is a definition of walking wounded, it is the Packers. They're running third stringers on defense and that's not going to cut it against Odell Beckham and the other weapons at Eli's disposal. I think the Packers will score as the Giant's defense is not as good as it has been and the Green Bay offense is finally humming. But I think the order is too tall and that the Giants will get one or two key stops and will slowly pull away.

Pick: New York